JORDAN1
JORDAN1
Joined: Sep 1, 2019
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September 1st, 2019 at 11:22:55 AM permalink
Hello. I have been reading several thoughts on gambling and I have spent the last decade trying to come up with a decent system. This is the best I have created, but I cannot check it against a billion rolls. What little I have simulated and even used in a casino have been slightly prosperous, but I would like to know in the long run how bad it boils down to when using a large computer simulation.

Here it is free of charge.

Wait for a shooter to seven out and then make a pass line bet and a don't pass line bet of 5 dollars.

When a number is established, use the following criteria for laying odds against that number.

6 or 8 - $102 odds
5 or 9 - $210 odds
4 or 10 - $300 odds."

Try to get three numbers established. If at any time one of your don't come/don't pass numbers get knocked down, take the other lay odds down and wait for the next shooter. Yes, I know you lose on the 12 every so often, but that is just part of the system.

I know this is a large odds bet, and there are only a few casinos that will allow this kind of action, but it is possible to do this "system."
(I have to find one that offers a "Hundred times odds bets.")

I am hoping for that $20,000 which was mentioned in several "Wizard of Odds" essays. The most important thing I am seeking though is an evaluation of the system.

Another variable is to never lay odds against the 6 or 8, since these are common numbers to hit, and just use the 4, 5, 9, and/or 10. Does this change the overall evaluation much?

Any information would be appreciated.

Thanks...

Chris
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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September 1st, 2019 at 12:17:58 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Try to get three numbers established. If at any time one of your don't come/don't pass numbers get knocked down, take the other lay odds down and wait for the next shooter. Yes, I know you lose on the 12 every so often, but that is just part of the system.


And that's the flaw. "Every so often" is, on average, 1 in every 36 comeout rolls.

What are your target parameters - your initial bankroll, and your walkaway point, either in terms of profit or comeouts played?
7craps
7craps
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September 1st, 2019 at 12:23:26 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Wait for a shooter to seven out and then make a pass line bet and a don't pass line bet of 5 dollars.

When a number is established, use the following criteria for laying odds against that number.

6 or 8 - $102 odds
5 or 9 - $210 odds
4 or 10 - $300 odds."

Try to get three numbers established. If at any time one of your don't come/don't pass numbers get knocked down, take the other lay odds down and wait for the next shooter.

so, you doey/don't for each number? When one number gets 'picked off' by the shooter, you could also remove the don't come bet on that number. Is that what you really want to do?

This 'system' is in no way unique and has already been tried in, I would say, at least 1 million different configurations.
Have yet to hear of any casino losing lots at the craps table to these type of systems.

hope you had fun working on this
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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September 1st, 2019 at 12:41:27 PM permalink
There are lots of permutations of this and if you should happen to run into a shooter who goes on a hot streak the whole thing falls apart.

With good money management it can work in the short term because you can enjoy yourself and maybe hit a cold period where things become profitable and you pick up a few comped drinks along the way. Speaking as a DP/DC player, just be prepared for a confused or dirty look here and there but don't let it bother you.
The best things in life are not free.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:05:40 PM permalink
In one out of every 36 rolls you lose just $5, which is better to me than just laying against the number and having to pay the $1 vig for every $40 (4/10) $30 (5/9) or $24 (6/8) bet made. With heavy lay odds, the house has a low advantage, but I was wondering about what it looks like with "a billion rolls." When I set target parameters, I say if I lose three to start or three numbers overall, I stop. End of session. If I lose two and get back to even, I stop, end of session. This is me just considering a "draw occurred" and I wait later to start another session. If I get ahead about $300 and lose one lay odds number, I stop. End of session. I either take my winnings or if I am manage to get back to even, I consider it a "draw session." I hate to win and end up in the negative at any point, so I don't let that happen. The only time that I can have a strong session is if I get ahead about a $800 or so and then if I ever fall back to half (like $400) I end the session. If I get ahead $1000 then fall back to $500 I stop, etc. The maximum hit I have found is about the $3000 mark. If I make it there, I stop. At that point, for me it seems virtually impossible to break that number, for the many sessions that I have experimented with, that is the line that hardly ever gets crossed. Yes, most of the sessions are "draw sessions" with a few losses. The worst starting out loss is $900. (That is laying odds against the 4 or 10 three times in a row and they are knocked down.)

Those are my parameters. My question is if there are no parameters except for stopping any wagering after one of my numbers are "knocked down", what is the house advantage (percentage wise) over a billion rolls? Is it simply somewhere in the area of .00019 as defined by the craps section in the Wizards of Odds website or is it better or worse over a billion rolls? Does "Stopping after each shooter that knocks down any one of my three odds numbers" change anything? Those are my questions.

Thanks...
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:16:02 PM permalink
I am only laying odds, not placing odds. I am hoping for a seven to happen all the time. If I get one number set say a 10, I lay $300 against the number and if a seven occurs, I win $150. If I get a 10 and a 6, and a seven occurs, I win my $150 plus $85. If I get three numbers set and a seven rolls, obviously I am extremely satisfied. I used to try to get them all set, but I have changed that strategy. Three don'ts numbers against one shooter is enough for me.

Thre great thing is 2s, 3s, 11s, don't help or hurt me, and I avoid the nasty seven on any roll trying to establish my don't odds lays. The 12 is the only monster, and yes, it happens once about every 36 rolls, which I lose my $5. Every roll of the dice, a 7 can occur, which is great for any don't player.

Again, I know this is just a system like any of them, and I know they are all flawed. I was just wondering how flawed mine was? I have gotten some pretty nice results, but it takes a nasty large bankroll to do this type of gambling.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
September 1st, 2019 at 1:18:37 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

My question is if there are no parameters except for stopping any wagering after one of my numbers are "knocked down", what is the house advantage (percentage wise) over a billion rolls?




it's not really meaningful to consider that you lowered the house edge by making free odds bets since your expected dollar loss is exactly the same as if you hadn't made the bets at all

the calculation you are trying to make is not meaningful

what is meaningful is your expected dollar loss which can easily be calculated by multiplying how many don't pass bets you made at what dollar amount and then multiplying that number by 1.4% because that is what the house edge is on a don't pass bet

what you have done with your free odds bets is greatly increased your variance - most serious minded gamblers would agree that it is best to keep variance as low as possible

that's not to say that you won't win. you very well might win - because your free odds bets are so much greater than your don't pass bet it's almost but not quite a coin toss as to whether or not you will win or lose

however, it in no way, shape or form constitutes a winning system
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:19:17 PM permalink
Sessions mean NOTHING. NIL. NADA.
Win goals mean NOTHING. NIL. NADA.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:20:43 PM permalink
A "hot shooter" is never going to get me because I stop as soon as he either makes the point or knocks down one of my Don't come odds numbers. I am looking for a cold table. One final deviation on this is if any one shooter makes three points in a row, I leave the table and stop the session. To me, that possibly means a hot table is coming and I don't want any part of it.

Yes, as a don't player, I keep my head down and collect my chips and move on. If everyone at a table was playing Don't then the house would be a Do player. It does not matter. I don't drink though, I need all my wits to play properly.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
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September 1st, 2019 at 1:24:43 PM permalink
The house edge on a don't pass system is 1.4 percent if no odds are taken. I am taking a large amount of odds so the overall odds are a bit different when figuring percentages.

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