charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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September 2nd, 2019 at 3:34:56 AM permalink
Sometimes for fun I'll do three don't comes - yes it's great when the 7 comes just after you've established all the points. I can see the logic that says make and Come and Don't Come so I can get true odss on the lay bet, but it costs you $5/36 each time. In the long run you're better just making the Don't bet. You also assumed that while making repeated DC bets a 7 is good news, as the other bets win, but an 11 is a loser, although 2 3 are winners.

Typically playing Don't can have a good result if they're aren't any hot rollers and few standoffs, howevere if you'r etaking odds then you're playing an odds-on game, winning mor eoften than not, but when you lose it's a bigger loss.

Enjoy your craps but accept it's a for fun game rather than a way to make money.
RS
RS
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September 2nd, 2019 at 4:16:19 AM permalink
I don't really understand what you're asking....?

You acknowledge your system isn't a winning system (none are), but then you ask how to improve it or what's wrong with it? There's nothing wrong with it and there is no way to improve it, it does exactly what it's intended to do, AFAICT, and that is to lose. If you want to lose even more and have greater losses, then don't make the odds bet, only pass + DP at the same time. If your goal is to win money (impossible) with your system, well, that's never gonna happen.


I guess a better question is this -- what do you want to get out of your system? If you can explain that, perhaps people can help on making your system "better" at doing that, I suppose.
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DeMango
DeMango
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September 2nd, 2019 at 4:40:03 PM permalink
If you lose one half bet in 36 rolls, how is the house edge 2.77%?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
September 2nd, 2019 at 4:48:45 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

I am sorry I wasn't clear. Once a don't pass number is set, I lay the don't pass number odds, then I go through the don't come to try to get another two numbers.


This exposes more money to the house edge of 1.39% on throwing a 12 immediately after a pass & DP, or come & DC, bet.

While this doesn't make the overall house edge any higher, it does tend to burn through your money three times as fast.

On average, you will lose about 14 cents on every $5 & $5 pass/DP or come/DC bet, and zero on your odds bets.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 3rd, 2019 at 6:46:20 PM permalink
Jordan1, I'm working on your computer simulation. In the meantime, ThatDontGuy is correct:

Quote: ThatDontGuy

On average, you will lose about 14 cents on every $5 & $5 pass/DP or come/DC bet, and zero on your odds bets.

MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 4th, 2019 at 7:45:17 AM permalink
Here's a draft of the computer simulation, which runs but returns the wrong result, because of some bug(s) I haven't been able to track down.

I haven't yet coded the bit about taking Odds bets down, because I want to find and fix the existing error(s) before complicating the code further.

[Edit: I've made some progress tracking down bugs. See post(s) below about results, as soon as I have them.]
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Sep 5, 2019
7craps
7craps
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September 4th, 2019 at 9:11:42 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

My question is if there are no parameters except for stopping any wagering after one of my numbers are "knocked down", what is the house advantage (percentage wise) over a billion rolls?

The house advantage (combined edge) is the same at 1 roll or 1 billion. What changes is the 'expected loss' (# rolls * average resolved bet)

most craps players have NO clue as to what a 'house edge' is or what 'expected value' is, just their beliefs, either true, false or a combination of both.

the combined house edge is very east to calculate using the 'perfect 1980'
math will NOT be shown here
30x, 28x and 17x lay odds (4,5,6)
HE = -27/5148 = -3/5720 or about -0.052448% (-0.00052448)
'per bet resolved'
one can not just multiply that by 3 (and the avg bet) for the total ev
as 3 wagers are not always resolved at the same time.

Quote: JORDAN1

Does "Stopping after each shooter that knocks down any one of my three odds numbers" change anything? Those are my questions.

Yes, the 'expected value' because the 'handle' changes ($$$ resolved wagers).
1st simulation results (only 10 million rolls - I used WinCraps)

1st simulation results (I get)
2 players at SAME TABLE with unlimited casino credit - to make any bet.

for player 'L' who does the 3 point Molly on the dont side BUT removes all the odds and refuses to wager on the same shooter once 1 bet losses. (Loser mentality)
$ bets decided: 393,687,218
$ ending bankroll: 746,108 (calculate the per roll loss 4 fun)
edge: -0.001895

for player 'W' who does the 3 point Molly on the dont side and cheers when he wins (Winner mentality - does not FEAR losing)
$ bets decided: 964,729,186
$ ending bankroll: 1,415,546
edge: -0.001467

player W lost less as a percentage but wagered more than player L.
bet more, lose more

OP wants to beat the billion rolls (computer) and show a profit
never will happen
even IF he plays that many rolls in a casino
show a profit, never will happen (His parameters just makes him FEEL better while losing. GREAT!)

enjoy
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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September 4th, 2019 at 2:44:04 PM permalink
As you say normally for each Don't bet you lose 27 / 1980. In the case given, the average total wager (including don't odds) is 26 x initial bet, hence the effective House Edge is 27 / 51480.

I ran a quick simulation of 1m shooters where the odds stayed, but any loss (except on the DC comeout roll) stopped further bets.

The first result gave Win: 153671785 Lose: 154239683 Bet: 412085504 Rolls: 6182487

The average of all 100 trials gave a House Edge of 0.048% (90% -0.07% to +0.18%); and 14 of the 100 trials gave a profit.

When I changed to odds to always win $100 (i.e. 200/150/12) there were similar ideas a House Edge of 0.093% (90% within -0.04% to +0.22%); and 17 made a profit.


Has anyone else done simulations where, over such a long time, the player can come out ahead? My personal guess is that the bets on 4 and 10 are larger if you lose, so the results might be more affected by how these perform.

Note: For number of rolls, where all the DC bets had lost the shooter immediately stopped rolling and the next shooter started their comeout roll.

Note: Subsequently running a simple the same with no Odds gives a House Edge between 1.273% and 1.433% (av 1.331%). So I guess large Odds make the variance so big that sometime people can come out ahead over long runs.
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Sep 4, 2019
7craps
7craps
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September 4th, 2019 at 5:57:34 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

The problems:

(1) Line Bets Placed (including Don't Come) should approximate Line Bets Won, but it's a fair bit off.

(1) Odds Bets Placed should be close to Odds Bets Won, but it's even further off.

I suggest changing the bankroll to something way lower just to test.

I changed the bankroll to $10 and when a 5 rolled it gave me $10 lay odds when I had $0 bankroll.
You must have something set twice for that to happen.

I also have seen stuff like this
Results
Pass/Don't bets: 110 Won = 130 (house take = -18.18%)

The Pass/Don't (Doey/Dont) can't show a profit, never
so your code must have that in more than one place or
your video poker style of accounting is not right for the 12 roll

I only looked at it quickly, but have no more time this week to look

too much Football coming this weekend. Gots to get ready...
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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September 4th, 2019 at 5:58:51 PM permalink
If there was a true winning system then I would have figured it out by now. That's the one truth that I know :-)

My own personal "systems" are

A) Just play the DP/DC straight up and lay max odds

B) Go on the DP on the come out roll and then lay odds while placing an equal sum of the total bet on the 6 and 8.

C) Staying off the line completely and placing the 6/8.

Once in awhile I'll make a field bet or a hardway bet just for kicks and giggles.

To reiterate, if the perfect system is out there I'd have found it by now.
The best things in life are not free.

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