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MDawg
MDawg
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July 13th, 2019 at 9:11:16 PM permalink
I'll be in a 100K Baccarat invitational tournament pretty soon. I've been in more than a few Bacc. and BJ tourneys and I know it's pretty much all about luck, but are there any particular strategies for Bacc. tournament play (other than, "stay hydrated")?

For example in a BJ tourney I'll split tens do crazy things to get as much money as possible out there that I wouldn't normally do at a regular BJ table. Is there any move equivalent to "violating basic strategy because you're in a BJ tourney" for a Baccarat tourney? I don't think there is but just wondering.

In a way though, why it's so easy to lose all your chips - quickly - at a Bacc. tournament gets back to my assertion that the tiny house edge has little to do with why Baccarat players lose their whole bankrolls so quickly - it's uncanny the way a guy who is on a losing streak will barely get 1/4 hands right in Baccarat for hand after hand, while during hot streaks I myself have gotten as many as say 11 out of 12 hands in a row right, even with a complicated pattern in play.

Within a dozen or even half dozen hands most Bacc. tournament players are skint, losing far more than the expected theoretical loss. A Bacc. tourney isn't about patience isn't about waiting for the good shoe it's the equivalent of trying too hard to win a certain amount in thirty minutes before you have to go to dinner, and we all know how that usually goes and why time limit gambling isn't a great idea.

Let's say there are fifty Bacc. tournament players. So right off the bat you have a 1/50 chance of winning. Now, take the tie bet for example, pays 8:1 - terrible house advantage, but say you put your whole stack on it on the first hand. What are the odds that you'll hit and then have so many chips that you'd practically have to try hard to lose the tourney from there on, versus that you'll not hit and go bust first hand versus the odds that you'll win the tournament at all anyway, if you just plod along without taking such an absurd risk.

What about same scenario with a hundred Bacc. tournament players, which is probably closer to what I'll be facing.

Surely some of this may be calculated?
Last edited by: MDawg on Jul 13, 2019
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MaxPen
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ForagerAxelWolf
July 13th, 2019 at 9:15:40 PM permalink
Why bother when that's a couple hands for you? Hit and run, stay hydrated, and roll over your markers.
MDawg
MDawg
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July 13th, 2019 at 9:30:29 PM permalink
Uhh, okay. I actually read this post of yours. My mistake to have done so, but as long as I read it:

You have been in an invitational tournament before? Or maybe not.

You don't play with a buy in, it's an invitational, it costs nothing to play. You have nothing to lose (except for losing itself).
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AxelWolf
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July 13th, 2019 at 10:34:09 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I'll be in a 100K Baccarat invitational tournament pretty soon.

are you referring to the one at the Cosmopolitan in a few days?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
BleedingChipsSlowly
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MDawg
July 14th, 2019 at 12:01:41 AM permalink
I took a shot at looking up some basic odds for you, and I quickly discovered using the tie bet in baccarat tournaments is a common strategy. But not on the first hand.

Here is a a detailed read of one playerís tournament and the strategy he used: Final Hand, Secret Bet: Betting on 'Tie'

That article alludes that Wong has written a strategy for baccarat tournament play without citing a reference. You might want to find that.

Also, this article is the first in a basic strategy series which also covers using the tie bet: How to win a baccarat tournament part A: general concepts

To your OP, you have a 9.44% chance of hitting that 8:1 all-in tie bet on the first had. *IF* that bet is allowed. But that doesnít seem to be the best strategy.
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MDawg
MDawg
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July 14th, 2019 at 12:08:45 AM permalink
It's been a while since I've been in a Bacc. tournament so I don't recall exactly how the limits (such as on the tie) work with reference to your starting chips. So yes, you're right betting it all on the first hand on tie or anything else might not be an option.

I just recall the last Bacc. tournament I was in I was having too good a time and I thought I was winning but then the ones who won (1st and 2nd place) ended up with far more chips than I would have thought possible, so looking back, for that tournament anyway, I played too conservatively I wasn't really even in the running.

Okay let's say 100 players so theoretically 1% chance of winning, if there is a 9.44% chance of tie on first hand and hitting it with all your chips ASSURED victory wouldn't this be a good bet then? But, you might not be allowed to make the bet for all your chips and it might be wrong to state that hitting it with all your chips assures victory anyway.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jul 14, 2019
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MDawg
MDawg
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July 14th, 2019 at 12:20:33 AM permalink
Reading through those links you provided now. Thanks!
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kubikulann
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July 14th, 2019 at 4:18:42 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

You don't play with a buy in, it's an invitational, it costs nothing to play. You have nothing to lose (except for losing itself).

In order to calculate a strategy, we need more info on the rules.

- Is is there an initial bankroll? (I guess same for every participant)
- Are there min and/or max bets? Can you opt out of a hand/ a shoe?
- Is there a vigorish? Is it American (5% on banker wins) or European (half pay on Banker winning with 6)?
- What is the final goal? Max money? Max # of wins?

( Technically I would not call it a ĎítournamentĎí since each participant is playing independently against the house, not against one another. More a Ďícompetitioníí. )
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
beachbumbabs
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July 14th, 2019 at 6:13:59 AM permalink
STRICTLY my opinion.

Depending on how many hands you get.

How many hands do you get, anyway?

Assuming you get 20. No table maximum.

Use 1/4 of your chips on hand 1. Either banker or player, as you like.

Win, positive Martingale. Chase the streak for 3 more hands.

Bank 1/2 of that, bet the other half and positive Martingale 3 times. Repeat until the other side wins.

Chase that side's streak as above.

3 is a very lucky number in baccarat. Since I don't believe in systems, this all depends on luck. 3/4 is big good luck over bad luck. So might as well grab your joss by the horns and ride that bull.

Lose, reset with next 1/4 br. Bet what last won. Adjust br upward if you have winnings.

If with 4 hands left, you're not way up the leaderboard, bet 1/4 remaining br on tie. Positive martingale any winnings along with the next 1/4.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MDawg
MDawg
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July 14th, 2019 at 8:59:20 AM permalink
Info on rules:
The last Baccarat tournament at this property was during my last stay earlier this year, the one where we ended up staying nearly three weeks in Vegas between two different properties. I didn't know about the tournament and also didn't expect to still be in town when it happened, just one of those trips where I kept winning didn't want to leave. Anyway, when I found out there was a Bacc. tournament I found out the very day before it was about to start asked to be put into it but it was too late was what they said. Also these days it's not like I'm a monster player like in my past, so I don't have that level of clout.

But this time the invite came in via email just a few days ago, and it just so happens that the start date of tournament will definitely be during the stay I already booked, so this time I am in.

Anyway unfortunately I didn't pay attention to the last tournament rules or play, even though I was playing regular midi Bacc. for money in the same pit where the tournament was going off. But judging from the number of tables they set aside, it didn't look like a huge number of players which is why I estimate 100 invitees. The one piece of info I do know for sure is that the winner gets paid in promotional chips - the winner from earlier this year was a lady who sat next to me on a real Bacc. table the day after the tournament ended, and she was using those promotional chips to play. She was debating between playing "for real" with them, to try to win big, or just placing them on bank/player at same time to "rinse" them for a guaranteed close to half payoff.

There was also a $500K Bacc. tournament at a different property that just happened and I received an email invite for that one too, but wasn't going to be in Vegas in time for it. Also I am sure that one had more entries more players.

I might call my host later today to ask more about this upcoming one but he is old school he doesn't even get into stuff like that, such as tournament rules, the only advice he ever gives is "Win some money!"

The last Bacc. tournament I played in was pre-hiatus (decade long hiatus) so it was a while ago. That was played on a Grand Bacc. table so something like 14 players at a time, and then the winner (or maybe it was the top two) went on to the next table. This Baccarat tournament coming up will be on midi Bacc. tables so there will be less players, about half as many, per table to compete against, but the basics of that just one or two persons move on per table I assume will be the same. I wish I could remember how many hands we play. I suppose in theory everyone at the table could go bust and then no one would move up from that table.

I do also recall that what you did how much you bet depended somewhat on what the others were betting, you were always trying to bet strategically to try to make sure that no matter the outcome you ended up with more than they did.

The last Bacc. tournament I was at I played somewhat conservatively and my chip stack went up what I thought was a lot. There were more than a few hands when players would bet against each other and I won most of those. But then when I got to the final table there were players who had far more chips than I, so I was disadvantaged and then I just lost :-) (didn't lose all my chips, but I didn't place in the top spots). But it was fun and cost nothing to play.

And now that I think about it, there definitely were limits to how much you could bet on bank/player and on tie, and I am sure it was proportionate to where you couldn't win much more on a tie than the max payoff on bank/player than the same ratios as at a regular non-tournament Bacc. table. But back then, max was $15K at a regular table with $3K max on tie, meaning you could win 60% more on a tie bet than bank/player as far as max payoff. (These days limit is $20K on bank/player with max tie bet $6K, meaning you may win 240% more on a tie than a standard bank/player bet.)

So anyway, if the Bacc. tournament is like a regular table as far as ratios, the max payoff on a tie might be 240% higher than the max bank/player payoff.
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