Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?
Quote: 7crapsMy last 2 cents for this thread,
I think no one here would believe you if you post after 6 months or later that you show a net profit from your system.
You actually can and have shown profits and I hope your bankroll grows fast enough to withstand those large losing sessions that you know will happen and you must expect them to happen.
Most followers of this thread wanted to see you go for the challenge.
Time will tell if you actually do come back to it in the future.
Good Luck to you 98steps on achieving your consistent profits.
I will look you up when I'm in Vegas on my monthly visits.
First of all, I would like to thank you yet again for all the help you have given me in programming my system.
Unfortunately, I agree with you that no one here would believe me if I came back in six months posting a net profit. That is why I am proposing to post my daily sessions as they occur. Posting the same information here which I will deliver to my investors.....Session Date, Time and Location. Quantity of resolved wagers. Gross Earnings or Losses.
It is indeed my intention to pursue the challenge. As far as I am concerned, It WILL happen in the not too distant future. I say this with such certainty due to several reasons. First of all, I truly believe that I can win. Assuming I win the challenge, eventually When I do publish my book the endorsement of Michael Bluejay could be an invaluable bit of advertising and confirmation of honesty. If I get close but lose, the resulting data may still prove valuable. Even if I eventually lose, I feel that I owe it to Mr. Bluejay to complete the process and put forth my best effort. Assuming he is correct that this is an impossible task and that I am nothing more than a deluded crackpot, then at the very least I feel I somehow already owe him the $1000.
I am already working on some adjustments that may provide the final solution.
Quote: atlarsonLaugh all you want, but as long as he's playing with investor money, it's +EV for him personally. At least, as long as he's smart enough to quit while he's ahead. It would be better for him to pay out winnings after every session, but from the "gross earnings for a six month period" comment I guess he's not doing that.
My agreements with my investors calls for earnings to be allocated on a per session basis. Payment to my investors will be daily or weekly depending on their preference.
Despite apparent community opinion, I am not running some scam to part my investors from their money. It is a partnership between us. I only make money when I am able to give them returns on their investment.
Quote: MathExtremistWith that kind of deal anyone can beat the casino. Someone else is giving you money to bet with and you get to keep half of their winnings but have no liability for losses? Now there's a system that'll turn a profit in the short and long run. For you, I mean - not so much for your "investors".
Just an additional side note, I have also committed to allocate 80% of my end to back-up the bankroll during any stretch of time when the accumulated bankroll stands at less than two Full Buy-Ins. Again, I only make money when my investors are making money.
Quote: weaselmanHave you? I highly doubt it somehow. I don't think there are even too many members of the Congress who read it before voting for it. It is several thousand pages, most of which is legal mumbo-jumbo.
You don't necessarily have to read everything to have an opinion about it.
I have an opinion about 98steps' betting system for example, and I have not even seen it. Obamacare is the same kind of invention. 98steps is at least (almost) honest about his "investors".
I have NEVER been anything less than honest with my investors. Each one of them understand the risks involved. I have presented my data to them, demonstrated my system for them, discussed with them the fact that no system in history has yet withstood the test of time. I have made sure that each investor I work with fully understands the possibility that we may LOSE. AND until I was certain that they fully understood the nature of the venture I proposed, I refused to accept their funds. In fact, I have turned down several potential investors that were unable to fully comprehend the risks involved.
Quote: guido111Well said Wizard.
98 steps started his thread looking for investors.
They are everywhere!
there are also many people who just throw money at anything to make more money. Most do not value money since they have so much of it. They just play a game of making more money.
Must be nice to be in that position.
98 steps has placed himself in a very good position.
Reward with no risk.
That one took everyone here by surprise.
Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity? » Reply
So how does one invest in your system 98steps?
since the title of your thread now really makes perfect sense.
I share the risk with my investors. They invest the capitol, I invest the time. I only make money when they make money.
For the record, I get no intrinsic value from running the system without profits. I do not play the game of Craps for entertainment, it is a job. My only goals in this operation are to make money for my investors (and thereby for myself as well) and to accumulate a sufficient amount of empirical back-up data to justify the publication of my book.
While I do not expect any of the community to wish to join me on this venture, the question has been asked so I will answer it. If indeed any of you honestly wish to discuss investing with me, please feel free to email me at 98steps@gmail.com
Of course he won't. $5,000? Gone in a matter of weeks if not less. Investors? Sure, there are stupid people out there but come on, no one is going to "invest" in this for any substantial amount and certainly not more than once.
Even if 98steps truly does believe that his system will work, it won't take long for him to discover that it doesn't. He can pretend all he wants and keep throwing money at it but sooner or later (the math would suggest sooner of course) he will be standing at a craps table with no money, no "investors" and only a fool would then go "back to the drawing board" and actually think he can simply tweak his system and get ahead.
For those who have run the numbers on his chances for success (including 98steps if he actually has done this on WinCraps) and even for those like myself who have not, it is obvious that this system will fail. To hear 98steps say that he is pleased with his short term profits although he knows that it would never stand up to a 1 billion roll trial just proves that it can't and won't win. Martingale anyone? There's another system that will show short term profits most of the time and then go down in flames.
I can't believe any of you actually fell for this. Sure, the concept was interesting, the banter amusing and the thought of this getting into Bluejay's simulator intriguing but if anyone thought it was going to happen let's just say that it was just as likely as 98steps making money with his system... nil.
Quote: 98stepsI only make money when I am able to give them returns on their investment.
Yes, but you don't lose money when they do. That's the feature of your enterprise, that actually makes it profitable.
If you want my advice, forget the betting system, just make one bet per session for the full amount of your bankroll. If you win, you are $1,250 richer, if not, tough luck to your investors, just ask them to come back with more money for the next session.
Quote: 98stepsI have NEVER been anything less than honest with my investors.
...
I have made sure that each investor I work with fully understands the possibility that we may LOSE.
This is where you are not being completely honest. You say "we may lose", when in reality, it's only them who may lose, while you can only win.
Yeah, yeah, you "invest the time" ... into the engagement most of us consider entertainment ... Somehow, it does not feel like the same kind of "investment" to me.
But hey, like I said earlier, you are more honest with your investors than even our own president, so, I would not sweat it ...
Quote: 98stepsEven if I eventually lose, I feel that I owe it to Mr. Bluejay to complete the process and put forth my best effort. Assuming he is correct that this is an impossible task and that I am nothing more than a deluded crackpot, then at the very least I feel I somehow already owe him the $1000.
You don't owe me anything, now or later. And I still recommend what I recommended since the beginning: Hire a programmer for $50 to $100 on Elance or some similar site to write a simulation. It'll likely run way faster than WinCraps and will give you an apples-to-apples comparison of the results you could expect from the sim that I would write (provided that your programmer is competent). It's cheaper than $1000.
As for everyone else's continued complaints that 98 is a "fraud", "huckster", "managed to get a free test of his system", etc., these comments strike me as the same kind of small-mindedness that comes from a belief in betting systems in the first place. Many people can't conceive of a world without a creator, so they insist there *has* to be one. Some people can't fathom that 98 could be a sincere (if a little naïve) person, and so they insist that he *has* to be trying to pull the wool over *someone's* eyes -- either us, the public, or his investors. Another analogy is that I often hear critics of homophobic preachers insisting that those preachers *must* be closeted gays themselves. Well, a lot of them are, but a lot of them *aren't*, and to insist they are with such certainty is really presumptuous. None of us is privy to another person's thoughts.
And again, let's knock off the complaints about the "free test of his system". He never asked for one, it was all but forced upon him. (He didn't accept at first, but we pushed him to take it.) Accepting *the offer* of a free test is not some character flaw on his part.
Quote: weaselmanHave you? I highly doubt it somehow. I don't think there are even too many members of the Congress who read it before voting for it. It is several thousand pages, most of which is legal mumbo-jumbo.
You don't necessarily have to read everything to have an opinion about it.
I have an opinion about 98steps' betting system for example, and I have not even seen it. Obamacare is the same kind of invention. 98steps is at least (almost) honest about his "investors".
Yeah, actually, I DID read about 3/4 of it (it's been available online for some time now). But that's kind of beside the point--I wasn't tasked with making decisions that would profoundly affect peoples' lives, and expected to make those decisions based on the text of the bill. However, at least I was able to offer an informed opinion about it.
The reason why we have an opinion about 98steps' system is that we know, for a certainty, that it cannot work. In this case, we don't NEED to know the actual process, just like we wouldn't need to see the process someone claimed to have to turn peanut butter into plutonium.
Quote: MathExtremistMisanthropy aside, what are you planning to do about it? I'm not old and cynical yet, but griping (especially here) won't accomplish anything toward changing your perceived flaws in humanity. Most folks haven't been properly trained in critical thinking, which does indeed take as much practice as anything else. (Yes, I'm citing to Alfred Mander).
The point is, you can choose how you respond to your perception that everyone around you is ignorant and/or blind. You can either be miserable about it, or you can get over it.
I believe there's a third alternative--that I, as much as I possibly can, should encourage critical thinking and rationality, and part and parcel of that is opposing "fuzzy thinking" and irrationality whereever I find it--in myself as well as others.
I don't think it's "misanthropic" to point out that man is not constructed to be a rational being. It seems more like "being realistic in my expectations" to me.
Quote: MichaelBluejayYou don't owe me anything, now or later. And I still recommend what I recommended since the beginning: Hire a programmer for $50 to $100 on Elance or some similar site to write a simulation. It'll likely run way faster than WinCraps and will give you an apples-to-apples comparison of the results you could expect from the sim that I would write (provided that your programmer is competent). It's cheaper than $1000.
As for everyone else's continued complaints that 98 is a "fraud", "huckster", "managed to get a free test of his system", etc., these comments strike me as the same kind of small-mindedness that comes from a belief in betting systems in the first place. Many people can't conceive of a world without a creator, so they insist there *has* to be one. Some people can't fathom that 98 could be a sincere (if a little naïve) person, and so they insist that he *has* to be trying to pull the wool over *someone's* eyes -- either us, the public, or his investors. Another analogy is that I often hear critics of homophobic preachers insisting that those preachers *must* be closeted gays themselves. Well, a lot of them are, but a lot of them *aren't*, and to insist they are with such certainty is really presumptuous. None of us is privy to another person's thoughts.
And again, let's knock off the complaints about the "free test of his system". He never asked for one, it was all but forced upon him. (He didn't accept at first, but we pushed him to take it.) Accepting *the offer* of a free test is not some character flaw on his part.
But you should note, we were all (albeit in varying degrees) willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he weaseled out of the challenge. I think he sincerely believes that his system has a chance to win in the long run, so in that sense, he's delusional rather than fraudulent.
I agree with your second statement: It's likely he's just misguided rather than fraudulent.
Keeping all the rules the same change the number of rolls and be able to be up at least 10% of the time. With some quick and dirty math I can get about 40 million resolved bets. Any thoughts?
Quote: mkl654321Yeah, actually, I DID read about 3/4 of it (it's been available online for some time now).
Can you post a link?
Quote:However, at least I was able to offer an informed opinion about it.
What percentage of the bill is in your view satisfactory to form an opinion? From your previous statement, I understand, that 75% is enough, but I am still curious if you would accept any lower figure as well. Or is your criteria simply that one must have read more than you? Also, does that percentage have to be continuous? For example, if I just read every other line, does it still count as 50%?
Quote:
The reason why we have an opinion about 98steps' system is that we know, for a certainty, that it cannot work. In this case, we don't NEED to know the actual process, just like we wouldn't need to see the process someone claimed to have to turn peanut butter into plutonium.
Yes, that's exactly my point.
Quote: 98steps
It is indeed my intention to pursue the challenge. As far as I am concerned, It WILL happen in the not too distant future.
I say this with such certainty due to several reasons.
First of all, I truly believe that I can win.
Believing and Knowing are totally two different things.
Quote: 98steps
Assuming I win the challenge, eventually When I do publish my book the endorsement of Michael Bluejay could be an invaluable bit of advertising and confirmation of honesty. If I get close but lose, the resulting data may still prove valuable. Even if I eventually lose, I feel that I owe it to Mr. Bluejay to complete the process and put forth my best effort. Assuming he is correct that this is an impossible task and that I am nothing more than a deluded crackpot, then at the very least I feel I somehow already owe him the $1000.
I am already working on some adjustments that may provide the final solution.
98, I do not believe you still think you can make adjustments to your system and still beat the rules of the challenge.
This thread is so long and not an ounce of math in it.
Only a few stats of 95% session wins and a net bankroll that is positive per 20 sessions.
98steps,
How about a post of the original system in "Gibberish" so we can all see why Mr. Bluejay flipped out.
I doubt any of us could steal your system from that.
If you truly do believe that your system will work then why on earth do you need investors?
Even if you have a minuscule advantage then you're going to make money in the long run. If your system makes money then you don't need anyone else to share in your profits. Simply begin with the largest bankroll you can put together (I suggest taking out a loan, selling your car, saving up for a month or two) and then start small and build up your bankroll on your own. Once you have a substantial bankroll (which shouldn't take too long if your system is actually making money) then you'll have substantial wins and from that point forward it's nothing but the life of luxury.
This of strategy of course is wholly dependent on your system making money. If you truly believe that it does and that it will you'd not be asking anyone for money... you'd simply go out and make money using your system. Don't you see how the simple fact that you're asking others for money is just about all the proof anyone would need that your system will in fact not make money?
There is no way that you or anyone could convince me that you have a money making system... if you tell me that you need money. Of course, the obvious response would be that you need starting capital but if you cannot find a way to come up with $5,000 - $10,000 on your own then there's something wrong right there.
98steps, go save some money or sell off a few things you don't really need for the short term, take that money to the casino and make a boatload of cash. If your system really works it will be that simple. If your system doesn't work, then... I guess no amount of money will change that fact, regardless of where that money comes from.
Quote: weaselmanCan you post a link?
What percentage of the bill is in your view satisfactory to form an opinion? From your previous statement, I understand, that 75% is enough, but I am still curious if you would accept any lower figure as well. Or is your criteria simply that one must have read more than you? Also, does that percentage have to be continuous? For example, if I just read every other line, does it still count as 50%?
It was available at whitehouse.gov for quite a while when Obama was flogging it. I think it's been taken down by now. There was also a website for the US Congress that posted links to any bills under consideration, but that wouldn't be current, either.
You can try the archives at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/crecord/index.html; I have no idea how you would get to the bill at this late date. I've found, however, that perhaps the most extensive user of the Web is the US government, so I don't think you'd have much trouble tracking it down.
The part of the bill that I declined to read was the budget projections that went beyond 2014, and the funding mandates therefrom, because the Great Budget Deficit was even then in the process of creation, and any such projections were clearly GIGO. The math that said that the bill would actually DECREASE health care costs was based on projections that have since proved wildly unrealistic--even a brief skimming of that section made that obvious (at which point I stopped perusing the assumptions that were made based on those projections, such as a balanced federel budget by the year 2016; pardon me while I die laughing).
My criterion for what would constitute an informed opinion would be that any person proffering such an opinion would have at least made an attempt to find out the substance of the bill itself, rather than taking their point of view from Obama and acolytes (this bill will save humanity) or Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh (this bill will be the death of civilization). For instance, there was a summarized version available for some time that was "only" 121 pages long. I would respect the opinion of anyone who had read at least some portion of that. So no, my criterion is not relative to my own experience. I won't bother to answer your rather silly question about "every other line".
Quote: MichaelBluejayI can't agree that 98 "weaseled out". I practically begged him to test his system properly before blowing $1000 on a challenge with me. And when his tests showed him that he couldn't win, then he took my advice and didn't do the challenge. I mean, come on, what would the opinion of 98steps be if his tests showed that his system didn't work and then he proceeded with the challenge *anyway*?! Really, would that have garnered him a lot of respect from the community here? Not from me. I respect him more for paying attention to the results he got.
I agree with your second statement: It's likely he's just misguided rather than fraudulent.
But the whole point of the "challenge" was that in order not to waste the time of those (like yourself) who would either give his system provenance or refute it, he or anyone else wishing such assistance would have to put his money where his mouth was. After all, if the system proved faulty, you'd save him gobs of $$$$ that would otherwise be lost by empirical testing, and if it proved to be the real deal, the money he paid to you would be peanuts compared to the avalanches of swag he could expect from the casinos!
The upshot of all this was that you provided this service to him for nothing (whether or not he actually heeds the advice that is implicit in the results), so the "challenge" was rendered moot. I think if there had been an actual COST to 98steps (such as, money up front), this whole fiasco would never have gotten anywhere near as far as it did.
Current activities update on the 98step systems.
Currently running primitive tests against two separate theories that each hold the possible solution to the Bluejay Challenge. More in depth details to come soon.
Great News!!!! I have compiled my complete list of investors. The bankroll is complete and full scale operations will begin on the first as scheduled (with just a minor break for half of the second so I can run back to California to vote).
I am currently en route to Vegas. Operation of my "Base" strategy to commence this evening. Results will be posted by tomorrow.
Quote: WizardIt is a waste of time to try to talk 98 out of giving his system the old college try.
He won't believe that you can't beat craps until this system, and the next twenty he comes up with, all fail.
That, or he takes, and passes, a college level class in statistics.
Those who I really feel sorry for are the investors.
If they would waste their money on this, imagine what else they would waste it on. No wonder Bernie Madoff made out as well as he did.
A fool and his money are soon parted.
There are gamblers and then there are investor gamblers.
Now, I have seen it all.
and we get to have daily updates!
Quote: 98stepsHello once again.
Current activities update on the 98step systems.
Currently running primitive tests against two separate theories that each hold the possible solution to the Bluejay Challenge. More in depth details to come soon.
Great News!!!! I have compiled my complete list of investors. The bankroll is complete and full scale operations will begin on the first as scheduled (with just a minor break for half of the second so I can run back to California to vote).
I am currently en route to Vegas. Operation of my "Base" strategy to commence this evening. Results will be posted by tomorrow.
Hello, 98steps.
Hmmm.
"Currently running primitive tests against two separate theories that each hold the possible solution to the Bluejay Challenge."
Primitive tests???
What ever happened to the WinCraps simulations?
I cant wait til tomorrow!
How about some clues on your "system".
Quote: 98stepsso I can run back to California to vote.
Don't they have vote by mail in California?
Quote: guido111Hello, 98steps.
Hmmm.
"Currently running primitive tests against two separate theories that each hold the possible solution to the Bluejay Challenge."
Primitive tests???
What ever happened to the WinCraps simulations?
I cant wait til tomorrow!
How about some clues on your "system".
Primitive only because I am yet still a novice at programming WinCraps.
Clues....hmmmm......I rely heavily on odds wagers and a select few other low edge wagers. The strategy is a combination of bet selection, highly systematic progressions, and highly defined and disciplined bankroll management.
Quote: SanchoPanzaDon't they have vote by mail in California?
They do, however I will also use the trip home to take my beautiful 20 year old daughter to dinner and give my loyal 10 year old dog a good scratch behind the ears.
Quote: 98stepsPrimitive only because I am yet still a novice at programming WinCraps.
I guess this is going to be a stupid question, but...
By continuing to believe that you'll find some betting system that will turn a sequence of negative-expectation bets into a positive expectation, you reject even the most basic ideas of statistics. Essentially, you're saying that you don't believe that the expected value of the sum of two random variables is equal to the sum of the expected values. (Or, I guess, you could be saying that you don't believe the real game can be modeled statistically; that the physical dice don't behave like the mathematical model of "a number between one and six, each equally probable, independent of previous trials".)
But then for what possible reason would you trust WinCraps (or Bluejay's simulation, or any other computer program) to accurately test your system? The math required to generate good pseudorandom numbers (or indeed, even to define what exactly "good" means here) depends on the same theorems that your betting system, were it to exist, would violate. If you did happen to find a system that won consistently, and reported it to the authors of WinCraps, then they'd apologize for the bug in their program and fix it; they know the underlying statistical way that their program models the game, and they know that given that, you simply can't win.
Have you ever tried to learn about the math, maybe taken an introductory statistics course? How much math did you take in high school/college? Do you understand what "expected value" means, and how to calculate it for a bet? And given that, are there specific theorems, ideas that you reject? I'm really curious.
Quote: 98stepsThey do, however I will also use the trip home to take my beautiful 20 year old daughter to dinner and give my loyal 10 year old dog a good scratch behind the ears.
Ill be happy to take her to dinner for you while you get back to playing craps.
Quote: atlarsonI guess this is going to be a stupid question, but...
By continuing to believe that you'll find some betting system that will turn a sequence of negative-expectation bets into a positive expectation, you reject even the most basic ideas of statistics.
98steps must think that the 1 billion rounds of resolved wagers works to his advantage.
He wants to win a challenge. Mr Bluejay's challenge and $10,000 or more in cash.
He knows that for infinity, your statement above is true.
But 1 billion rounds is not infinity and with an unlimited bankroll per the challenge rules, he is determined to win.
The 3,4,5 times pass odds rule is what I can see that makes it impossible to beat the challenge.
Now, 100x odds and 100 7 outs between wagers, 1-500 bet spread, unlimited bankroll, it could happen to beat 1B rounds. but I still doubt it.
I still can not believe, as he has said, that his starting $5000 bankroll was given to him by investors.
And we get to see his results posted here.
A true soap opera!
Quote: guido111I still can not believe, as he has said, that his starting $5000 bankroll was given to him by investors.
And we get to see his results posted here.
A true soap opera!
No, we will never get to see his actual results. He may post something, but it will be fiction:
1. He actually believes he has a winning system, whatever simulation software he uses will disprove that, and he will quietly fade away. Or, post that he has "proved" that his system is a winner.
2. He has duped enough people to put up some money, and that money is now snugly in his pocket--he no more intends to go to Vegas and "test" his "system" with it than he intends to fly to the moon. He will post some more dissembling nonsense and then disappear.
3. He believes he has a winning system, he has actual backers who are equally stupid, and he will present some casino with $5,000. He will post something to the effect that he wasn't able to properly test his system because of sunspots or witches or something.
In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.
The man--I repeat--is a fraud. He's even fooled the Wiz, which is saying something. Bullshit+ a personable manner will get you far in this world.
Quote: atlarsonBy continuing to believe that you'll find some betting system that will turn a sequence of negative-expectation bets into a positive expectation, you reject even the most basic ideas of statistics. Essentially, you're saying that you don't believe that the expected value of the sum of two random variables is equal to the sum of the expected values. (Or, I guess, you could be saying that you don't believe the real game can be modeled statistically; that the physical dice don't behave like the mathematical model of "a number between one and six, each equally probable, independent of previous trials".)
Actually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.
Quote: atlarsonHave you ever tried to learn about the math, maybe taken an introductory statistics course? How much math did you take in high school/college? Do you understand what "expected value" means, and how to calculate it for a bet? And given that, are there specific theorems, ideas that you reject? I'm really curious.
My math background is relatively solid. At Boise State University I studied and tutored both Calculus and Statistics. The students I worked with went from an average grade of 52% to an average grade of 87%. I tutored 32 students thru Statistics and Probability, every one of which improved their performance. 31 of them went from failing grades to C's or better. 1 student went from failing 32% to passing with a D 61%.
Quote: mkl654321In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.
Yet again, 98steps doesn't owe me any money.
This is getting tiresome.
Quote: mkl654321No, we will never get to see his actual results. He may post something, but it will be fiction:
1. He actually believes he has a winning system, whatever simulation software he uses will disprove that, and he will quietly fade away. Or, post that he has "proved" that his system is a winner.
2. He has duped enough people to put up some money, and that money is now snugly in his pocket--he no more intends to go to Vegas and "test" his "system" with it than he intends to fly to the moon. He will post some more dissembling nonsense and then disappear.
3. He believes he has a winning system, he has actual backers who are equally stupid, and he will present some casino with $5,000. He will post something to the effect that he wasn't able to properly test his system because of sunspots or witches or something.
In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.
The man--I repeat--is a fraud. He's even fooled the Wiz, which is saying something. Bullshit+ a personable manner will get you far in this world.
Wow....such animosity.....whatever I have done to offend you in such a manner, I sincerely apologize for. I do not believe I have ever posted any statement which would cause you to question my integrity.
In response to your points........
1. I do believe that I have a workable, winning strategy. When I have run into challenges with simulation software I have not "quietly faded away", I have acknowledged the challenges openly in this forum. I have not posted, nor will I, that my system is "proven". When I have made the necessary adjustments so that I have an expectation of winning the challenge, I will present it to Mr. Bluejay. I will let him state that it is proven or not, when we complete the challenge.
2. You are blatantly calling me a thief. I take offense. My negotiations with my Investors are complete, I am operating my systems to the letter of the agreements with those investors. Not only do I intend to go to Vegas, I am already there.
3. "sunspots or witches". This does not even warrant a rebuttal.
First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162
Quote: 98stepsMy math background is relatively solid. At Boise State University I studied and tutored both Calculus and Statistics. The students I worked with went from an average grade of 52% to an average grade of 87%. I tutored 32 students thru Statistics and Probability, every one of which improved their performance. 31 of them went from failing grades to C's or better. 1 student went from failing 32% to passing with a D 61%.
I'm sure at least one of your students asked you to explain the Central Limit Theorem. Care to take a crack at it, and how it doesn't seem to apply to your system?
Quote: 98stepsActually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.
I think that when all the rhetoric is peeled away, and taking into account that you do not deny the reality of the arithmetic, what you are actually saying is that with a little luck at the beginning you can win enough so that the system will show a net positive, assuming there will be a finite end. The odds are slightly against that happening, but it could happen.
Quote: 98stepsActually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.
So for each individual bet, I think that means you agree that it can be modeled as a random variable with negative mean, independent of any other bets. Is that correct?
Then your overall results will be the sum of many such random variables. The overall mean will be the sum of the means of the individual bets. The mean of your overall results will therefore also be negative, since the sum of negative numbers is always negative.
You seem to reject that, though. What step in this reasoning do you think is wrong? Can you indicate the first sentence that you disagree with, maybe?
Or do you agree that the mean of your overall results will be negative, but believe that you still somehow can come out ahead? If so, in what sense? (For example, do you believe that even though the mean of your overall results is negative, you still have a system where if everyone in the world started playing that way, the casinos would all go bankrupt?)
Quote: MoscaI think that when all the rhetoric is peeled away, and taking into account that you do not deny the reality of the arithmetic, what you are actually saying is that with a little luck at the beginning you can win enough so that the system will show a net positive, assuming there will be a finite end. The odds are slightly against that happening, but it could happen.
Playing through around a $1 million on pass line with x3 odds at $10 a shot, there's a 25% chance you'll end up a net winner.
(http://www.winnergambling.com/casino-tools/return-and-variance-calculator/)
It's not necessarily a good risk/return investment but I can see why someone might chance it.
Quote: thecesspitPlaying through around a $1 million on pass line with x3 odds at $10 a shot, there's a 25% chance you'll end up a net winner.
It's not necessarily a good risk/return investment but I can see why someone might chance it.
The Bluejay challenge is not for $1 million wagered.
$1 million can be a lifetime amount of play.
It is 1 Billion rounds, each round having at least 1 resolved wager.
at $1 min bet that is a minimum $1billion dollars wagered.
98steps has said he makes the odds bet. So the amount wagered is even higher than $1 billion.
at .374% HA that still becomes a very large expected loss
and no amount of "good luck" or variance can overcome that hole.
I do stand corrected.There is a chance. My Excel can not go out past 30 points.
at 15811.278 standard deviation of 1 billion pass line bets
118.27 SD need to be made up to show a profit.
1 billion is a very large number. We hear about it every day but really do not understand how large it really is.
98steps will find he can win in casinos, the short run, but never beat the challenge.
Quote: 98stepsActually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.
My math background is relatively solid. At Boise State University I studied and tutored both Calculus and Statistics. The students I worked with went from an average grade of 52% to an average grade of 87%. I tutored 32 students thru Statistics and Probability, every one of which improved their performance. 31 of them went from failing grades to C's or better. 1 student went from failing 32% to passing with a D 61%.
Those two statements could not possibly both be true and come from the same person.
What you are saying is equivalent to someone saying they were a university chemistry professor, but they believe in alchemy--or phlogiston. Or a university biologist who believes in spontaneous generation. Or a geneticist who believes in Lysenko's theories. Anyone with any kind of university background in mathematics--ESPECIALLY statistics--would realize the utter futility of what you're trying to do, and consequently would not waste his time or money attempting it.
Boise isn't too far from Reno...I hope your students didn't blow their tuition money...
Quote: MichaelBluejayQuote: mkl654321In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.
Yet again, 98steps doesn't owe me any money.
This is getting tiresome.
He accepted the challenge.
I agree, this is getting tiresome.
Quote: 98stepsWow....such animosity.....whatever I have done to offend you in such a manner, I sincerely apologize for. I do not believe I have ever posted any statement which would cause you to question my integrity.
In response to your points........
1. I do believe that I have a workable, winning strategy. When I have run into challenges with simulation software I have not "quietly faded away", I have acknowledged the challenges openly in this forum. I have not posted, nor will I, that my system is "proven". When I have made the necessary adjustments so that I have an expectation of winning the challenge, I will present it to Mr. Bluejay. I will let him state that it is proven or not, when we complete the challenge.
2. You are blatantly calling me a thief. I take offense. My negotiations with my Investors are complete, I am operating my systems to the letter of the agreements with those investors. Not only do I intend to go to Vegas, I am already there.
3. "sunspots or witches". This does not even warrant a rebuttal.
1. You may very well believe that. I doubt it, though, as you seem like an intelligent person.
2. In light of 1., above, it is highly likely that you are running some kind of scam. If your "investors" really exist, at the very least, you are throwing away their money.
3. Believing in the effects of sunspots or witches is EXACTLY as rational as believing that you can sum negative numbers and get a positive number as a result.
My animosity stems from decades in the casino industry and as a professional gambler. You appear to me as just another of a tiresomely endless string of persons who think they can "beat the house" at a negative expectation game. What is sad is that if you put this much effort into winning at one of the casino games that IS beatable (such as blackjack), you would probably do quite well. That's your lookout, of course, but you appear to have led others down this primrose path, which crosses the line as far as I'm concerned; you are now blowing other peoples' money.
Quote: mkl654321He accepted the challenge.
I agree, this is getting tiresome.
this is the wrong thing to be angry with
Quote: mkl654321you are now blowing other peoples' money.
this is the right thing to be angry with
Quote: 98stepsProgress Update....
First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162
Current Score:
98steps: 1 ($162)
The rest of us: 0 ($0)
should be time to vote this thread closed.
Quote: 7winnerCurrent Score:
98steps: 1 ($162)
The rest of us: 0 ($0)
should be time to vote this thread closed.
Pardon?
He won $162 in 3-4 hours of craps. That's not proving anything. I've won $150 playing craps with no other method than pass line and $10 behind. Not time to close the thread.
Quote: guido111The Bluejay challenge is not for $1 million wagered.
$1 million can be a lifetime amount of play.
It is 1 Billion rounds, each round having at least 1 resolved wager.
at $1 min bet that is a minimum $1billion dollars wagered.
98steps has said he makes the odds bet. So the amount wagered is even higher than $1 billion.
at .374% HA that still becomes a very large expected loss
and no amount of "good luck" or variance can overcome that hole.
I do stand corrected.There is a chance. My Excel can not go out past 30 points.
at 15811.278 standard deviation of 1 billion pass line bets
118.27 SD need to be made up to show a profit.
1 billion is a very large number. We hear about it every day but really do not understand how large it really is.
98steps will find he can win in casinos, the short run, but never beat the challenge.
I'm just trying to guess at 98's reasoning. I think it is very much along the lines of "$1 million [is] a lifetime of play." If he hits the little wins, enough, and early, so that the big losses (when they come, and they will) don't take him into the negative, then he might end up ahead in a lifetime. And a lifetime is enough to cover anything that matters.
Quote: 7winnerCurrent Score:
98steps: 1 ($162)
The rest of us: 0 ($0)
should be time to vote this thread closed.
Let's see when the score looks like this:
99steps: 190 wins, 10 losses (-$4500)...he has said his system only wins 95% of sessions played.
The rest of us: 0 ($0)
I hope 98 saves some of his winnings since those results will make it more difficult to find new investors.
I vote to never close this thread.
Gives me a chance to get away from reality once in awhile.
Quote: thecesspitPlaying through around a $1 million on pass line with x3 odds at $10 a shot, there's a 25% chance you'll end up a net winner.
(http://www.winnergambling.com/casino-tools/return-and-variance-calculator/)
It's not necessarily a good risk/return investment but I can see why someone might chance it.
Once again, this is the wrong issue. The issue is whether this strategy can attain a POSITIVE EXPECTATION, as established by so many trials that the probability of coming out ahead is that associated with a hundred or more standard deviations of variance (using that term in its general, not specific meaning), i.e. disappearingly small.
The investors in 98Steps' system may believe that it cannot attain a positive expectation, but are willing to risk their money on the hope that it provides a decent chance of making money in what we might call the "medium term".
It's hard for me to accept 98Steps' allegation of having studied and tutored statistics, in light of his clear lack of understanding of probability.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinOnce again, this is the wrong issue. The issue is whether this strategy can attain a POSITIVE EXPECTATION, as established by so many trials that the probability of coming out ahead is that associated with a hundred or more standard deviations of variance (using that term in its general, not specific meaning), i.e. disappearingly small.
Actually, it's the only issue that matters for 98steps and his investors. They spin the wheel, and they see what the end result is. That's all that matters... the actual result. In this case it's the opposite of the Wizard's maxim. I'm not really considering the 1 billion samples challenge in my statement, which I agree that it's vanishingly small chance that 98 steps can beat with any system.
The challenge has not been taken up, the two parties are going their seperate way and no-one owes anything to anyone. I figure the odds highly favour that they spin the wheel and end up in negative. I do not consider this method to have any sort of positive expectation, but I do also consider that there are possible results that net a profit for the investors.
Any risk/reward metric you try and calculate will end up looking like the house advantage....
Quote: goatcabin
The investors in 98Steps' system may believe that it cannot attain a positive expectation, but are willing to risk their money on the hope that it provides a decent chance of making money in what we might call the "medium term".
People with money are not aways the smart ones.
But you do not have to be smart to win in a casino.
98steps must then be a very good salesman.
I wonder what he does for his 9to5 job.
Alan, you have been mentioned in earlier posts of one who has seen 98steps' system and if so, I would assume you ran you own sims just for the fun of it.
You agree that the challenge can not be beaten.
And you are correct that in the "medium term" he can show steady profits... before the big loss rears it's head.
Quote: goatcabinIt's hard for me to accept 98Steps' allegation of having studied and tutored statistics, in light of his clear lack of understanding of probability.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Not taking anything away from 98steps, he may be a great teacher, but if you teach out of a book, as most teachers do, almost anyone can then be a teacher.
When a student has a question you can not answer, most teachers find someone or someplace where the answer can be found.
