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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:39:28 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

Those numbers show over $21 per hour played.
Then he has to split that 3 ways, himself, his investors and more for the bankroll.
I think his "Base" betting the first 2 weeks is to see if he can stand the grind and make it through each session still in one piece.
It is now Monday and we should see Monday's results tonight.



Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:47:05 PM permalink
Quote: ElectricDreams

You calling me a simpleton, nope27? My sensibilities are offended!


Yes, we are all simpletons. some more than others.
Quote: ElectricDreams


Also, what does your craps system have to do with my opinion about E. Clifton Davis' Baccarat system anyway?


Absolutely nothing!...
Just like your post has to do with this thread.

IF you or anyone else wants to hijack and/or make comments about another topic, please start a new thread.
It makes it so much easier to follow a current thread if we all keep it to the same topic.

And your new thread could even be more popular than the current thread. A win-win situation.

I do admit I have broken that rule a few times, even NOW, so no hard feelings here.



Quote: ElectricDreams

Furthermore, your system is a good way to hedge bets, I guess. I'll stick with pass line and odds, because I do like living in my perfect, simple, world, thankyouverymuch.


Oh, my system is not a hedge system. It is not that simple. What is simple is the two betting situations will have every wager win on a come out 7. A winner 7.

You are very welcome.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:49:33 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?



He was down as much as $650, but rode it back up to show a small, sixty-something dollar gain when the "day" ended.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:50:21 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?



I thought that also at first
Oct 22nd:
"Progress Update....

First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.

October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162"

a nice running total table at his blog would be a better idea.
We could all find it fast and easy. It would be simple!
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:52:23 PM permalink
Calling 98steps.
Please start a nice progress table in your Blog here at the Wizard of Vegas.
It is free and should be easy to do.

nope27 has a nice example you could use

You can keep the table to just the stats but use your posts here to give all of us the juicy details.

Good luck!
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:55:41 PM permalink
Quote: nope27


Try to code and understand this one:
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is 2 standard deviations or more (but less than 2.5 standard deviations) below the expected mean and the next roll is a come-out roll. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $40 each , Lay the 5&9 for $60 each, Lay the 6&8 for $60 each. Bet $25 on the pass line.
OR...even easier



1. What does that even mean?
1.a. The 51.77% figure you insert is the probability of at least one seven rolling in 4 rolls of two dice. It just is; it doesn't have a standard deviation.
1.b. There is a mean and a standard deviation of the NUMBER of sevens rolled in four rolls: .666667 and .745339.
1.c. So, even one SD below the expected mean is a negative number; it's a very skewed distribution.

In any case, any bet made on the basis of past rolls is based on the infamous Gambler's Fallacy.

Quote: nope27

As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean and the next roll is a come-out roll and the last roll was a #7. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $100 each , Lay the 5&9 for $120 each, Lay the 6&8 for $150. Bet $50 on the pass line.



If the last roll was a seven, that's MORE than the expected mean number of sevens in four rolls, no?


Quote: nope27

after $5 pass line lost once, bet $10 on the pass line.
Must be nice to live in a perfect, simple world.



It's "Wink" Martingale!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 229
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October 25th, 2010 at 2:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

Calling 98steps.
Please start a nice progress table in your Blog here at the Wizard of Vegas.
It is free and should be easy to do.

nope27 has a nice example you could use

You can keep the table to just the stats but use your posts here to give all of us the juicy details.

Good luck!



nope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 3:01:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

nope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.



A great idea!

Ive got a feeling, a feeling deep inside, oh yeah!...
(for all you Beatle fans)

that 98steps will keep that info for his upcoming book.
Look at the interest he has in his current experiment.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 3:17:31 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

1. What does that even mean?
1.a. The 51.77% figure you insert is the probability of at least one seven rolling in 4 rolls of two dice. It just is; it doesn't have a standard deviation.
1.b. There is a mean and a standard deviation of the NUMBER of sevens rolled in four rolls: .666667 and .745339.
1.c. So, even one SD below the expected mean is a negative number; it's a very skewed distribution.

In any case, any bet made on the basis of past rolls is based on the infamous Gambler's Fallacy.



If the last roll was a seven, that's MORE than the expected mean number of sevens in four rolls, no?




It's "Wink" Martingale!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA


Do not take me as being rude, but I will start a new thread so I can discuss your questions. We are getting way off-topic.
I have no time for this now as I am visiting in the US.
please have patience.
ElectricDreams
ElectricDreams
Joined: Sep 8, 2010
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October 25th, 2010 at 3:25:44 PM permalink
Quote: nope27

Yes, we are all simpletons. some more than others.

Absolutely nothing!...
Just like your post has to do with this thread.

IF you or anyone else wants to hijack and/or make comments about another topic, please start a new thread.
It makes it so much easier to follow a current thread if we all keep it to the same topic.

And your new thread could even be more popular than the current thread. A win-win situation.

I do admit I have broken that rule a few times, even NOW, so no hard feelings here.



This obsession with making sure every single post stays on the thread topic has to be one of the more unique aspects of this forum. I've never seen it anywhere else to this degree. If I honestly felt that my post was going to start a long discussion about E. Clifton Davis' Baccarat system, than I would have started a new thread. I felt that my comment was an anecdote, at best, and wouldn't garner many (or any) posts regarding it, so I left it in.

And yes, you're just making it worse, but you realize that so whatever.

Quote: nope27


Oh, my system is not a hedge system. It is not that simple. What is simple is the two betting situations will have every wager win on a come out 7. A winner 7.

You are very welcome.



You're betting both sides of the dice - it's a hedge system. Additionally, as goatcabin mentions, it's also a system that relies on the Gambler's Fallacy.

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