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Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 1:48:41 PM permalink
I've said it many times, and it is as true today as it ever was:

The key to winning gambling is to get really, really good at picking what is going to happen next.

The better you get at it, the more you will win. Start practicing.
NO KILL I
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 1:49:00 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player



And my THINKING, REACTING, and COUNTERACTING trumps their house edge.
.



No it doesn't. If it did you would quit posting
on forums and be in the casino 6 days a week.
Instead you have a pile of reasons not to quit
your job. What about the challenge? Put all
this hyperbole to rest once and for all.

Hyperbole: Bragging, exaggeration.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 1:52:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

The key to winning gambling is to get really, really good at picking what is going to happen next.



I'm great at it. It's the actual event that doesn't get it right :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:00:02 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

No it doesn't. If it did you would quit posting
on forums and be in the casino 6 days a week.
Instead you have a pile of reasons not to quit
your job. What about the challenge? Put all
this hyperbole to rest once and for all.

Hyperbole: Bragging, exaggeration.



Says the man who won't take bets on the internet, or take challenges on his own special roulette schemes. Sauce for the goose and all that. Of all the people to attack someone's selection method, Bob, it's funny how you are the one doing it. You say you can make pit managers change their underwear with your special forecasting methods, if they only knew. But why are you on here, posting on forums, and not in the casino 6 days a week?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:15:47 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

The key to winning gambling is to get really, really good at picking what is going to happen next.



Hysterical, Mosca. Absolutely hysterical.

I wonder if you've ever heard that old adage: There's alot of truth in humor.

Yes, picking what's going to happen next is important. We do need to have decent strike rates in order to stay afloat at this game.

But, my friend, of equal import is our reaction to what happens next, win or lose.

I'm afraid that so many of you....strike that.....too many of you.....simply don't get that.

You're all so concentrated on the result that you can't see past it.

So I pick a side and I lose. Big deal. I've lost countless bets before, and I'm quite sure as I continue playing this game I 'll lose countless more of them.

But my reaction to those lost bets will always be measured and calculated.

You see, my friend, I KNOW HOW TO GET FROM A TO B, AND I'VE NO FEAR IN THAT JOURNEY. And that holds true, win or lose on my next bet. Or the next. Or the next.

Can't any of you GET THAT?
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:31:30 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

And his "betting Banker every hand" falls into that same ill-fated "worthless" category, for it will lose in the long term.



Yes, it will lose in the long term. That's the effect of a house edge.

As stated in Nareed's 17th Law, derived in no small part from the work of the Wizard: "18) Be wary of offering solicited advice. Add disclaimers if you do, and remind the person asking for advice that the best bets are those least likely to lose." (emphasis added).

The advice to bet banker one every hand is based on the fact that the house edge is lower for that bet, making it the bet with which you'll lose the least. It's not a system, nor is it advanced as such.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hysterical, Mosca. Absolutely hysterical.

I wonder if you've ever heard that old adage: There's alot of truth in humor.

Yes, picking what's going to happen next is important. We do need to have decent strike rates in order to stay afloat at this game.

But, my friend, of equal import is our reaction to what happens next, win or lose.

I'm afraid that so many of you....strike that.....too many of you.....simply don't get that.

You're all so concentrated on the result that you can't see past it.

So I pick a side and I lose. Big deal. I've lost countless bets before, and I'm quite sure as I continue playing this game I 'll lose countless more of them.

But my reaction to those lost bets will always be measured and calculated.

You see, my friend, I KNOW HOW TO GET FROM A TO B, AND I'VE NO FEAR IN THAT JOURNEY. And that holds true, win or lose on my next bet. Or the next. Or the next.

Can't any of you GET THAT?




Naw, I don't get it.

I gamble for fun. I win some, I lose a little bit more, the sun comes up tomorrow.

You know what the hardest thing is about gaming? Fitting it into a balanced life. Because the goal is not winning: the goal is satisfaction. To make it fit, I follow The 10 Commandments of Gambling. I really appreciated finding those. I even wrote Michael an email thanking him, which he answered about a year later. Notice that a lot of those rules address the interface of man and math.

Satisfaction is going to sleep at peace, and waking up at peace. Making money? That's why I go to work. Tossing dice, peeking at pasteboards, pushing buttons, all that stuff is for fun. If it got me all torqued up, win or lose, why bother?

I can lose at the games and still sleep, and still awaken the next morning, because it is all for fun. If it wasn't, then I wouldn't do it.
NO KILL I
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:53:48 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

The smaller that nemesis window, the better.

In non-correlated games of chance, I would sure like a clue to how this is remotely possible?
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 2:59:42 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player


So I pick a side and I lose. Big deal. I've lost countless bets before, and I'm quite sure as I continue playing this game I 'll lose countless more of them.



Sure, but do you win more than you lose? (Of course you'll say that you do, else we wouldn't be here). What you describe suggests that the deck is not a series of a independent events (Banker, Player, Tie), but there's is a correlation of results, such that bet sizing (0 is a bet size) and knowledge of previous events can turn a profit.

I find that hard to believe. You'd have to point out where the mathematical models of a shuffled deck played through Baccarat is faulty. Which suggests the correlation between hands in Baccarat is not negligible (it's not 0, as the deck composition changes, but its teeny-tiny, from what I know).

It may be faulty, but I'd need evidence on that.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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July 10th, 2013 at 3:11:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I gamble for fun. I win some, I lose a little bit more, the sun comes up tomorrow.

You know what the hardest thing is about gaming? Fitting it into a balanced life. Because the goal is not winning: the goal is satisfaction. Satisfaction is going to sleep at peace, and waking up at peace. Making money? That's why I go to work. Tossing dice, peeking at pasteboards, pushing buttons, all that stuff is for fun. If it got me all torqued up, win or lose, why bother?

I can lose at the games and still sleep, and still awaken the next morning, because it is all for fun. If it wasn't, then I wouldn't do it.



Mosca, thank you for posting this sage commentary. Absolute gold, my friend.

I just recently posted about my full-time job and how it fulfills me and my family's needs, and as hard as my job is at times, I graciously accept it as a necessity.

I, too, am at peace. I and my family are truly blessed and I am forever thankful.

And, you know what? I happen to believe that all of that is the impetus for my gaming successes. Why? Because there's nothing like gambling when you aren't really in it for the money. I enjoy it as a diversion from my difficult and testing job, but I mostly enjoy it because I happen to do rather well at it.

Anyhow, thanks again Mosca for your wonderful contribution to this thread.

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