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gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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July 10th, 2013 at 8:51:27 AM permalink
I get many questions about my bet selection techniques and how I might have arrived at them, so I'll begin this thread by way of response:

There are so many bet selection methods and techniques, public and otherwise, that one can select from and adopt as their own. The list is virtually endless, from totally mechanical selections to a bit more subjective, such as trending, it's bound to boggle a propective users mind. Which of these might be best?

Well, the obvious answer is that your bet selection process must be a comfortable one for your preferred style of play. For instance, if, in fact, you're a relatively patient and disciplined sort of player, you might prefer a bet selection process that does not bet every decision but awaits certain criteria to be met prior to any bet placements.

But, that said, there exists as well a not-quite-as-obvious answer to your bet section process dilemma:

The "nemesis". The nemesis, in this instance, is defined as what your bet selection process loses to.

And, yes, it matters. It matters alot.

If I were to design a bet selection process, I would not want my nemesis to be the singles, or ones. Why? Because the statistical leader for appearances in the average Bac shoe is, in fact, ones (or singles). Would it make sense to have your nemesis be the most common occurrence, statistically? I should think not.

And, make no mistake of it, my friends, every bet selection methodology has its nemesis. If one were to even attempt any long term success with those bet selections, one had better be very well acquainted with exactly what their nemesis looks like. In this manner, they will be aware of exactly what they need to be on the lookout for, what to avoid, or, at the very least, what to back off against.

The smaller that nemesis window, the better. Try to select your bet selection methodology with that in mind.....as reduced a nemesis as possible. And an easily-recognizable nemesis (so you know when to back off as opposed to butting heads against it) is of equal importance.

So, while your preferred bet selection methodology is of paramount importance, and should be designed around your preferred style of play and your preferred money-management process as well; make no mistake of the absolute necessity of being familiar with your nemesis in order to best fend it off. Every bet selection method has its nemesis, but you can make it alot more bearable by recognizing it readily and reacting to it expediantly.

I wish you all the very best of it.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 9:27:28 AM permalink
One of my law school classmates started his own law firm after graduating. His web page has a pretty good motto. It is:

1. WIN
2. Minimize exposure


I find this pretty good advice for gambling as well as criminal law :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
gr8player
gr8player
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July 10th, 2013 at 9:58:31 AM permalink
Hello, teddys, and thank you for your poignant response.

Yes. Ideally, we'd all like to get in, get it, and get out.

And that, too, needs to be a part of our methodology as much as anything else.

Think about it for a minute:

A player utlizing an arduous, drawn out negative progression needs to keep his initial unit sizes on the low side, because he needs to have the "wiggle room" to escalate those bets as necessary. Now, that sort of player is not as apt to have that same "get in, get it, and get out" mentality, because his early wins are not sufficient to satisfy his session win goal. So he needs to play on. And play on into what, exactly? Might he be exposing his bankroll to an impending downturn?

That's why we need to make our initial units sizes large enough to MATTER. So that we can be satisfied with those couple/few unit wins. Then we can "get in, get it, and get out" in a much more expeditious manner.

I wish it for all of you.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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July 10th, 2013 at 10:15:36 AM permalink
Hello, gr8player, and thank you for your truly thought-provoking post. I do have a question for you. One that I thoroughly hope you will answer.

Have you accepted the challenge yet?

I look forward to hearing from you, and I wish you the very best, gr8player. Take care now.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
chickenman
chickenman
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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July 10th, 2013 at 10:27:50 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th


Have you accepted the challenge yet?



I've been waiting for that...:-)
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 10:58:07 AM permalink
Why even give him a pass on the original post? It said absolutely nothing!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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July 10th, 2013 at 11:24:37 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Why even give him a pass on the original post? It said absolutely nothing!



It said that he plays Baccarat and he makes bets, that's huge. Sometimes he bets on one result, and other times he bets on a different result. He doesn't always bet the same amount, either, I think that's just a piece of the puzzle.

The key is that you have to avoid adding up a bunch of negative numbers, because you still get a negative number. You have to make sure that you are multiplying negative numbers, and always an even amount of them. That results in a positive number, and that's winning.

Gr8Player is multiplying those negative numbers, man. I'm not quite sure how he's doing it, but he's doing it.
Vultures can't be choosers.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 11:35:53 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146



Gr8Player is multiplying those negative numbers, man. I'm not quite sure how he's doing it, but he's doing it.



He's curve fitting, like I said. They do it all the
time in statistics. You bend or ignore the stats
you don't like and only use the ones that fit what
you're trying to accomplish. They did it with Global
Warming. Only used the stats that made their case.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 10th, 2013 at 11:43:12 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I get many questions about my bet selection techniques and how I might have arrived at them, so I'll begin this thread by way of response:

Since you shared your method, here is the Wizard's that I found.
he has been so kind to let you post on his site

http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/
"Every baccarat table will have plenty of score cards and pencils for the players to keep track of the outcome of every hand.
Most players will do so religiously and carefully analyze their card for trends as the winning hand switches back and forth from the banker to the player.

This is a big waste of time!
The smart player will bet on the banker every time and leave the score cards alone."

The Wizard's method looks really simple and he knows how to do some very difficult math,
way beyond my ability. (and maybe your's too)
I would say any 5 year old can follow his method 100% accurately
100% of the time and have a lifetime of results results approaching the house edge of the Banker bet.

Care to comment on the Wizard's method??
He has a large following, I would say close to Annette Obrestad

Thanks and
Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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July 10th, 2013 at 1:30:34 PM permalink
Hello, 7craps, and thank you for your interest.

All anyone needs to know regarding the Wizard's view of any betting methodologies can be found in the header of this very subsection:

"All betting systems are worthless."

And his "betting Banker every hand" falls into that same ill-fated "worthless" category, for it will lose in the long term. Make no mistake of it, my friend.

And the worst thing about it is the "variance"; the downturns will, at some point or another, be virtually astronomical and insurmountable.

I prefer not to bet every hand as if I were a machine. Rather:

I prefer to bet when I wish to based upon certain criteria.
I prefer to bet where I wish to based upon certain criteria.
I prefer to alter my bet size as I wish to based upon certain criteria.
I prefer to terminate a session as I wish to based upon certain criteria.

Do you notice a recurring theme among those stated preferences of mine, 7craps?

Sure you do: It's the "as I wish to".

You see, my friend, unlike that monolithic, decision-spewing table, I AM ALLOWED TO THINK. I AM ALLOWED TO REACT, AND COUNTERACT.

And my THINKING, REACTING, and COUNTERACTING trumps their house edge.

Stick that in your "all betting systems are worthless" pipe and smoke it.......

Again, much thanks for your interest, 7craps.

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