Posted by Mission146
Apr 22, 2015

In this article, we're going to discuss our affiliate promotion for Vegas Casino OnLine:

Before I offer a few of my own words about this casino, I should like the potential player to read the Wizard of Odds Review.

Vegas Online Casino is a relatively new advertiser for us, but that does nothing to diminish the faith that we have in their fairness or treatment of players.  As a Wizard of Odds Approved Casino, the Wizard himself will step in and attempt to resolve any legitimate dispute that the player may have with the casino, though it is preferred that the player first attempt to resolve the matter his/herself. 

The best online casino promotions are very simple and straightforward, and this casino promotion is just that.  Simply, the promotion is a 100% Match Bonus up to $11,000, total, consisting of up to 11 separate deposits of $1,000.  If we click the, "Terms Apply," link on the promotion, we see that the terms are extremely straightforward:

"To withdraw your bonus, winnings and deposit amount you must wager 40 times your deposit plus bonus in valid games. If playing Multi hand Video Poker, Blackjack, Video Poker, Caribbean Stud and Perfect Pairs, wagering requirements increase to 90 times your deposit plus bonus. Wagers in Craps, Vegas Three Card Rummy, Tri Card Poker, Caribbean Hold’em and any form of “21 Games”, Pontoon, Baccarat, Roulette or SicBo cannot be applied to the cash out wagering requirements. Some Slots Machines are excluded. No maximum cash out amount. "

The first thing that we notice is that the bonus itself can be withdrawn, as that is right in the terms.  That means that, with a game with a low enough house edge, this particular bonus can theoretically be beaten straight up. 

If the player deposits $1,000, then the 100% Match will add another $1,000 to the player's balance and the player will either have to wager $80,000 coin-in on regular games or $180,000 coin-in on Blackjack, Multi-Hand VP, Single-Line VP, Caribbean Stud, or Perfect Pairs.  Many games are discluded from the Wagering Requirements, unsurprisingly, including games where a player could theoretically bet on opposite results, such as Baccarat.

Blackjack has a return of 99.46% at this casino, with Optimal Strategy, and the best Video Poker is 99.78% Aces and Eights.  The expected loss of $180,000 coin-in on Blackjack is about $972 and the Expected Loss on the much higher Variance Video Poker is about $396. 

The games with a 40x play-through do not have a low enough House Edge to merit consideration.

Because the Bonus is cashable, and the player may redeem the Bonus up to 11 different times, we see that the overall expected value of the Bonus for the Blackjack Player is +$308 while it is +$6,644 for the player of Aces & Eights. 

This promotion is very clearly beatable straight-up, but we might ask, is there a better way to do it?

IMPORTANT NOTE:  I am waiting for E-Mail Confirmation that the Bonus can even be played, AT ALL, on games that do not count towards wagering requirements.

Fortunately, this will be a somewhat easy question to answer.  Like Bovada Casino, where we found that the best way was to use the, "Tie Bet," on Baccarat that pays a very liberal 9-to-1, we can see if we would be best off doing it that way on this.

The key differences between this promotion and the one for Bovada are:

1.)  We get $2,000 to wager (after Bonus) as opposed to $500 for Bovada, that's the good news.

2.) The bad news is that the Max Bet for Tie Bet seems to be $250 on Vegas Casino Online.

In this case, we're going to have to look at this in terms of what our bankroll would improve to using the Tie Bet for up to eight losses, and then switching tactics and playing either the lower Variance Blackjack or the higher Variance Aces & Eights:

Here are the Probabilities and New Bankroll for Each Attempt:

First Attempt:  0.095156  ($4250)

Second Attempt:  (1-0.095156) * 0.095156 = 0.08610133566 ($4000)

Third Attempt: (1-0.095156)^2 * 0.095156 = 0.07790827696 ($3750)

NOTE:  For the remaining attempts, simply change the exponent to the attempt number minus one.

Fourth Attempt:  0.07049483696 ($3500)

Fifth Attempt:  0.06378683025 ($3250)

Sixth Attempt:  0.05771713063  ($3000)

Seventh Attempt:  0.05222499935 ($2750)

Eighth Attempt (WIN):  0.04725547731 ($2500)

Eighth Attempt (LOSS):  (1-0.095156)^8 = 0.44935511283  (-$1000)

What we notice is that we actually have a better than 50% probability of improving our bankroll, but then, we're expected to beat the House Edge straight up on Blackjack or Aces & Eights even if we don't, so does this improve our value?

The first thing we want to do is take the probabilities of improving our bankroll and multiply those by what our new bankroll would be less the original $1,000 we invested and less the Expected Loss on the playthrough.  The subtractions will always be $1972 for Blackjack and $1396 for Aces & Eights:

0.095156 *  ($4250-1972) = 216.765368

0.08610133566 * (4000-1972) = 174.613508718

0.07790827696 (3750-1972) = 138.520916435

0.07049483696 (3500-1972) = 107.716110875

0.06378683025 (3250-1972) = 81.5195690595

0.05771713063  (3000-1972) = 59.3332102876

0.05222499935 * (2750-1972) = 40.6310494943

0.04725547731 * (2500-1972) = 24.9508920197

0.44935511283  * (-1000) = -449.35511283

Our total is:



-449.35511283 = 394.695512059

That means, per attempt, on an initial outlay of $1,000, cash, a player can expect to win $394.6955, or, about $4,341.65 if attempting the promotion eleven times.  This is an expectation of +39.46955% on the money invested, which is an even better edge than Bovada's promotion and is for a lot more cold, hard, cash.

We see that the lower Variance game of Blackjack, however, still yields a lesser overall expected win than playing Aces & Eights straight up.  Since attempting to improve the bankroll first improves the expected return on the Blackjack, it stands to reason that it does the same on Aces & Eights.  If you want to calculate the return of Aces & Eights for yourself, simply change the '1972' in the above formulas to '1396' re-calculate the formulas, and then sum up the totals.

The interesting thing about this promotion is that it is beatable straight-up, but has an even better value if the player first attempts to build a higher bankroll by playing that ultra-liberal Baccarat Tie Bet.  I'm awaiting clarification as to whether or not that is allowed and will update this article when I have it.

Straight up, this promotion is very beatable, and doing the Baccarat Tie Bet first, this promotion can be utterly destroyed.


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