"He never bothered about mathematics at all"Talking about Einstein, one of the most surprising things about reading Walter Isaacson's Einstein was to learn that Einstein avoided advanced math in his early education. All the pictures of Einstein you see today generally show him at the blackboard writing some seemingly impossibly complicated mathematical equation. But it seems he was a student adequate in math, yet not much interested in it. The book says later in life he realized this was a great mistake, that math is essential to understanding and theorizing in Physics. Nonetheless the book relates how he made little effort to do more than the minimum effort in the discipline while attending the Zurich Polytechnic, skipping most of his calculus classes for example. To show this was not being a case of already having mastered the material, his worst grades were in Math, maintaining a 4 pt average in a 6 point system. Clearly he makes up for this later, though the book does not make clear how [at least I don't remember and can't find it now]. The quote about "never bothering" comes from one of his Zurich P. professors.
I have to tell you that it is my opinion that this attitude today would devastate anyone planning to have a career in science. I have a nephew who claims to be quite interested in Space and the study of the Universe, but I am hardly sanguine about his chances of making this his career. He is attending a private Christian school; I have heard nothing about any interest in math and just know he is not getting the math background he would need, even though on the face of it it could be possible since they have him taking calculus. I have pondered whether to tell his father my brother, he better start getting special tutoring to get him to the level of a couple of years in proficiency in college math by the time he graduates from high school. This leg up for someone who has not been described as a straight A student would be extremely helpful. If he was a natural at math, ready to pick it up at any level no sweat, I think I would be hearing about it. I guess I will just keep my mouth shut, am I going to offer to pay for this tutoring? Plus I could be wrong; perhaps things are different today, they evidently were in Einsteins day.
And maybe it will just happen that he will find himself taking off in a different direction with his studies, and this is all then forgotten. I worry about it though; after all the percentage of people dropping out of college is still quite high. There are plenty of landmines. Why start with plans for going into a profession that are greatly flawed?
Comments on the personal situation are welcome.
i have a degree in Physics and Astronomy and was absolutely killed in my first year Calculus class (I did okay in Algebra) which was required if I wanted to take anything above 1st year Physics or Astronomy. Matrices are instrumental for quantum mechanics. Alot of the skills in calculus are necessary for general relativity and electromagnetism studies.
However, most colleges have prep courses for calculus that lead into the advanced classes necessary for science. People switch degrees all of the time, so if your nephew didn't have the necessary background, a remedial course is available.
But if the kid has a strong desire to do science, I would encourage him to strongly to ensure that he has the correct background in math. Otherwise, he'll just fantasize. You can look at the curriculum of any comparable high school and compare it to what he's taking now. For example, my daughter (who has little interest in science) will be taking all of the math courses necessary to handle college level math should she choose science as a career three years from now. You gotta keep your options over, and if you're missing grade 12 math, you're in for extra credits and a massive learning curve when you hit college to get caught up.
Speaking of math, I got my degree in math. Advanced calculus was in many ways a mystery to me. Nonetheless, when the first quiz
was passed out, I made 86. This was well above in other grade given to a class of 30 or so. Average grade was about 35. Guys sitting next to me made 14, 23..........Now this was at least top 25% students to even get in the school (Univ of Texas), and lots of engineer type guys at that. Same on quiz #2. I'm not sure if this fits in to your topic. I was not especially smart, even in math. I say
try to have an influence on what he is doing. Math is pretty much a major asset in just about every aspect of everyday life.
i have a degree in Physics and Astronomy and was absolutely killed in my first year Calculus class
Getting killed in a math class ... or at least severely challenged ... has to be one of the most nearly universally shared experiences of college out there!
if the kid has a strong desire to do science, I would encourage him to strongly to ensure that he has the correct background in math. Otherwise, he'll just fantasize. ... if you're missing grade 12 math, you're in for extra credits and a massive learning curve when you hit college to get caught up.
Yes, exactly, although in my thinking high school math has to be very much exceeded some way some how before hitting college if such ambition has a chance to be realized. As for fantasizing, I have noticed the bullshitting-the-general-public wavering student starts talking about "marine biology" as his/her goal. Really. I have witnessed this half a dozen times. [Woods Hole here they come!]
I say try to have an influence on what he is doing. Math is pretty much a major asset in just about every aspect of everyday life.
Thanks for the advice guys, I am pretty much determined now to get myself involved.
Sometimes an outside influence can make a difference. Hell, we all know mom and dad are always wrong.
10x Craps ExploredI've been puzzling over a paradox of the Craps world: games can be found that offer substantial free odds, up to 100x, but it is very infrequent to hear that someone takes advantage. Mostly in this forum someone will talk about what they do with other completely different bets; occassionally there is a report on working with 10x or 20x free odds, usually at a table with the remarkably liberal exception of $1 minimum on the line. As someone has been quoted as saying, the casinos don't like to gamble, so that would explain why there clearly is great resistance out there amongst them against offering large-x free odds, only doing it to be competitive. Investigating what casinos are risking, it is a chickenshit attitude for sure, yet somewhat understandable: I'm finding a player religiously sticking to 10x or more can't be guaranteed to be have actual losses over a considerable time period, or even in his lifetime. Assuming there isn't some silent sizeable legion out there doing it, you might think there would be more players trying. Clearly one problem is bankroll; I wanted to check out what might be needed to really take chances with some reasonably comfortable amount to lose. After all with negative expectation this is the equation in any case.
There is now a craps table within driving distance for me that offers 10X free odds for $10 bets, but I was shrugging it off as exceeding my comfort level for my craps gambling and have skipped it on trips where I could have engaged in that kind of wagering. But it has slowly dawned on me that I was wrong to think that there was no way to manage this without 'gambling more'. It would certainly be true if I maintained my old pattern: playing for about 90 minutes a session, two sessions per trip. A hard critique of this old pattern was already underway. I was starting to experiment with shorter sessions, to increase the chances for coming out ahead with a session. Finally I've decided that an extremely short session placing the large bets with the 10X odds would make a certain amount of sense. 90 minutes at a $5 3x4x5x table means wagering about $3600 per session for me. Alternatively, playing at a $10 table laying 10X free odds, counting not by the number of bets on the line, but instead counting the times that a point gets established, and counting to 20 of those decisions, means about the same in wagering. I'm thinking the experience of the very short session gets balanced by the excitement of the larger wagers, and I am definitely finding that shorter sessions are fitting fine with me, and it feels like smarter betting too. So far I have proved to myself I can keep a certain discipline about limits to wagering if I set my mind to it.
One thing I have been able to confirm is that 10x odds takes you into a different universe. I am used to 3x4x5x, and when playing that way I find I am focused pretty much on the line action, with streaks of craps or 7-11 being a bummer or a thrill depending on which side one is betting. I find myself sometimes skipping free odds bets, or not taking the full amount, and certainly almost always failing to call these 'on' during the come-out, all because the line bet just seems the focus. Going the max with 10x free odds, however, all that changes. Lose 3 or 4 bets in a row on the line and it's "who cares"! It's more clear that $10 a whack just isnt going to add up. Once you put up your 10x free odds, another thing becomes clear: this is where the action matters. And IMO there is no longer any doubt that the dark side is the way to go. For me the losing streaks that 'playing right' dish out are too hard to take with the bigger money out there, and there is no doubt that you want your free odds working all the time: that's automatic on the dark side. BTW 5x free odds, I have found, keeps elements of that 3x4x5x experience, with just a taste of that other universe. I also believe the excitement is enough without going to the DC box, although I concede that assumption may not hold.
Dabbling with 10x is in the cards for me, but what about being a steady, frequent, long session 10x player, chancing that very favorable long run? I decided to try 100 different players on Wincraps going for 10x odds through 50,000 rolls [not come-outs]. I chose 50k as an amount that represents the most rolls I am likely to see for the longest period of gambling over the years that I might still be up and kicking. For me this means gambling several times a year but not as often as once a month, with a limit to how many sessions each trip as well, but going at it hard each session. Something might surprise me, but as far as I can tell I likely will see less than this 50,000 rolls for the rest of my life [certainly this would be different for other players]. I set up the Wincraps to have one unit on the line, I'm thinking this will give us constant dollars over decades. As inflation grows the minimum bet will go up, and the gambling bankroll should also go up.
The table below shows this Wincraps experiment with the 100 players. I have listed whether the player came out ahead (W) or lost money (L) but alternatively lost money but came close to breaking even (GBE for gambler's break even). With Comps it is breaking even, Wincraps valuing it at about 60 units, but I am calling it a GBE at -50 or better to adjust for the fact that Comps do not exactly equal money. Since for me the time period is decades I would be happy indeed to only be down 50 units anyway.
It occurred to me that the real question is bankroll and ruin. Yes, some players get the W or GBE, 37% to be exact, but whether they got to see it to the end depended on that bankroll quite often. I decided for the first 33% of the rolls that if a 500 unit bankroll held up, that was good, not busting 700 units running total for the next third, and not busting 900 units at any time, that would be a sustainable situation for me, and if exceeded I would have to consider that as Ruin for my bankroll. How another person with a better bankroll could do became a question, to make it easy I just looked at whether a flat bankroll would last. I decided you need a 1500 unit roll, out of my league but represented in the last column.
Out of the 37 W's and GBE's, the smaller bankroll went to Ruin 12 times; in other words, only 25 times out of the hundred players did a small version bankroll get to W/GBE without Ruin. 63 are losers 'period'. Some of those L's do not experience small bankroll Ruin, however. If you went with the liberal definition of "worth it" as not experiencing Ruin [after all it is negative expectation] then you can count 30 as players who probably enjoyed themselves whether they came out ahead or not.
For players with a larger absolute bankroll, $15,000 in today's money for a $10 table, then 73 of these players with that roll on them could be considered to have gotten the play they wanted [again, possibly for decades depending on player]. Of note is the fact that the larger bankroll avoids Ruin for 11 of the W/GBE's. But Ruin for the large bankroll still occurs for 27 players, some of whom you just wouldnt want to be [g].
This was a lot of work and probably shows how crazy I am [g]. In Summary, for the bankroll I am going to be comfortable with risking, Ruin occurs too often to think that this might be worth a shot. A dabbler on a more limited basis looks like the deal for me. 30 players out of 100 "enjoying themselves" is not an inviting prospect.
|Player||Win or Loss||amount||lowest pt in bankroll||highest pt in bankroll||with low bankroll?||with high bankroll?|
|1||W||+219||-674||+127||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|4||L||-412||--610||+617||Loss played out||Loss played out|
|5||W||+145||-632||+1130||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|6||L||-956||-1122||+987||Ruin||Loss played out|
|8||L||-1072||-1182||430||Ruin||Loss played out|
|10||L||-887||-1383||+315||Ruin||Loss played out|
|12||L||-406||-967||+635||Ruin||Loss played out|
|15||L||-1085||-1140||+183||Ruin||Loss played out|
|16||L||-185||-1189||1347||Ruin||Loss played out|
|17||W||+178||-716||+471||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|18||W||+1464||-360||+1966||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|19||L||-1306||-1480||+849||Ruin||Loss played out|
|22||L||-1252||-1367||+273||Ruin||Loss played out|
|23||L||-916||-1244||+1562||Ruin||Loss played out|
|24||W||+1156||-33||+1685||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|27||W||+338||-196||+1576||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|28||W||+1446||-288||+1790||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|30||L||-1310||-1310||+1089||Ruin||Loss played out|
|31||L||-352||-1184||+587||Ruin||Loss played out|
|32||W||+527||-360||+2184||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|33||W||+941||-441||+1495||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|34||L||-878||-1158||+920||Ruin||Loss played out|
|36||L||-639||-1452||+308||Ruin||Loss played out|
|38||W||+2420||-408||+2935||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|39||W||+2330||-192||+2330||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|42||W||+1065||-182||+1859||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|43||W||+124||-613||+1409||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|44||L||-261||-607||+879||Loss played out||Loss played out|
|45||L||-288||-679||+2326||Loss played out||Loss played out|
|46||L||-194||-1498||+596||Ruin||Loss played out|
|47||L||-498||-828||+260||Ruin||Loss played out|
|50||L||-403||-1353||+369||Ruin||Loss played out|
|51||GBE||-24||-543||+1349||GBE Realized||GBE Realized|
|54||L||-440||-973||+743||Ruin||Loss played out|
|55||L||-729||-1301||+1257||Ruin||Loss played out|
|56||L||-938x||-1421||+453||Ruin||Loss played out|
|60||L||-528||-959||+587||Ruin||Loss played out|
|61||W||+687||-209||+1330||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|64||W||+711||-248||+1448||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|65||L||-135||-339||+587||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|67||W||+203||-185||+809||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|68||L||-149||-1062||+537||Ruin||Loss played out|
|69||W||+1289||-26||+/1606||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|71||L||-82||-1213||+220||Ruin||Loss played out|
|72||L||-739||-1075||+933||Ruin||Loss played out|
|75||L||-1015||-1126||+771||Ruin||Loss played out|
|76||L||-818||-1352||+818||Ruin||Loss played out|
|77||W||+827||-526||+838||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|78||L||-851||-1182||+694||Ruin||Loss played out|
|79||W||+1411||-172||+1601||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|80||L||-215||-687||+389||Loss played out||Loss played out|
|82||L||-112||-567||+427||Loss played out||Loss played out|
|83||L||-388||-992||+470||Ruin||Loss played out|
|85||L||-907||-1367||+1087||Ruin||Loss played out|
|86||L||-354||-1073||+360||Ruin||Loss played out|
|87||GBE||-40||-489||+1345||GBE Realized||GBE Realized|
|90||L||-69||-778||+588||Ruin||Loss played out|
|92||GBE||-37||-496||+876||GBE Realized||GBE Realized|
|93||W||+1683||-230||+2089||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|94||W||+618||-57||+1019||Win Realized||Win Realized|
|97||L||-395||-1150||+381||Ruin||Loss played out|
|99||L||-715||-1042||+583||Ruin||Loss played out|
Very interesting. At some point, every one of the 100 was up (even if just a $1. Sucks to be that guy).
While 10x is too volatile, is there a "sweet spot" at 6x or 8x that might work for smaller bankrolls?
>At some point, every one of the 100 was up (even if just a $1. Sucks to be that guy).
Yes, remarkable! A strategy to try to take advantage of that surely would send a player to the funny farm. If I pulled it off, I would still have to admit to myself I still wanted to keep playing craps, on that I couldnt kid myself.
>While 10x is too volatile, is there a "sweet spot" at 6x or 8x that might work for smaller bankrolls?
20x [not available around here] I toyed with too, increases the no. of players getting the W but the chance of Ruin is awful. So for 8x or so I guess I expect less Ws but better Ruin avoidance. I might check for a sweet spot, thanks. 5x seems too much like 3x4x5x.
Well, I don't know what GBE means: Gross Break Even?
Some of your mental oversights at lower levels of play might be corrected by giving instructions to the dealers or by playing at higher limit tables.
Just because the casino's comps formulas want 3 and 4 hour sessions doesn't mean you have to do it.
That famous Binions guy who put 240,000 dollars on the line sure didn't last 3 minutes, much less 3 hours. He walked in with one suitcase, put it on the line, Benny Binion said "Book It" the whole darn table and anyone within hollering distance came over and jumped on board too and then the guy rolled the dice and walked out carrying two suitcases.
Presumeably however you are desirious of a bit longer entertainment.
I don't see a necessity for the dark side, but it would be useful. Its always better to have the most of your money on odds that you can and if you prefer to be a Right Bettor I would continue that way rather than switching to laying the odds instead of taking the odds just to get the numbers up higher.
Good luck to you and please keep us informed. 10x at 10.00 equal to 110.00 at risk or for a PassLine bet and two Come bets its 330.00. Still, as long as that first one or two rolls makes you a winner you will be fine. You still might have three hour sessions at times.
>I don't know what GBE means
A loss roughly covered by comps, but the term I like for that is "Gambler's Break Even" since I find that most players will say they "about broke even" or something similar when they lose a modest amount. Me too. [g]
>I don't see a necessity for the dark side, but it would be useful. Its always better to have the most of your money on odds that you can and if you prefer to be a Right Bettor I would continue that way rather than switching to laying the odds instead of taking the odds just to get the numbers up higher.
I do like to bet "with the table" and hope to see the shooter who goes for eons someday, but since my current deal is to have limited sessions at 10x, that becomes unimportant. If I truly ever found I could blow $15k and not miss it, and trust that I can adjust that for inflation, I might decide to be a Right Bettor as you say. Actually I could come up with that and not really miss it, but as for now it is just more than I want to put at risk gambling. I'd say the way things are going I get less comfortable with it daily. Will someone please put Europe out of its misery?
Oh, now I get it. Gamblers Break Even. Yeah. Good. Wives hear "broke even" or " just about broke even" no matter what.
Comps never really figure into it unless I've got a free room or some really top quality booze for free.
Harrington coughs up a 'W'After getting a couple of coupons to use, one a $25 Match Play [match your winnings on a win] , and one an up-to-$100 Free Ace [paying even on BJ], I was able to go yesterday and use them. The short version is that I hit on the Free Ace bet, going for the full $100. Along came a face card! The other bet lost. I broke about even on the rest of the betting but did *finally* get a win on a session of BJ, not counting any coupon bets.
The venue was the Harrington DE casino yet again, and this time there wasn't any deja vu for me. Older blog posts will explain. I didn't take the long way around to get there [confirming though that a sign at Denton is misleading], the buffet is better, there was zero hawking of sucker bets, and this time for ethnic observations [sorry] the Af/A group was very nice looking [no white Tshirts] while Asians were better represented [all seemed to have coupons!]. No problem getting to play a game you wanted, including Craps even though they only seem to ever open but one table. Last time an odd thing happened with mid-day Craps, I couldnt get a spot on the one table even patiently waiting for someone to go broke, a tactic that seemed fail-safe at any other Craps table. This time the full table wasn't full anymore if you waited even just a minute.
The two coupons were burning a hole in my pocket. I took the Match Play coupon to a Suit standing behind the Craps table, and in response to my question about playing it on Craps told me without hesitation that it has to be used at BJ. That hardly surprised me, and the lack of hesitation was convincing. So it was to be BJ for both. I had decided I was going to do the max on the $100 one, but felt a little nervous about it. I plunked myself down to confirm I was at the right BJ table but held off using the coupon for a bit. In the forum I had gotten some feedback about whether I should double down, since there is the factor of getting only one more card when the matched portion was so imperative to win. I have to figure the coupon has a value of at least $25 if maxed, since it is claimed that one that pays 3-2 on BJ is worth $50. I had decided to double-for-less if it was Soft 17 or 18, and skip all other, BS be damned, even though overall maybe this lowers that value. Less variance this time please. For this reason and others I was nervous enough about it to ask myself if I was going to be able to remember BS! I played a few hands until I was back into the swing of it, hands that I was doing well at, so I laid the card down with 4 Greens. A very pretty lady laid down next to my coupon and it was BlackJack! Can't get too mad at the folks who sent the coupon my way, clearly what a fellow needs is just more of those. And thanks to those here who said to go ahead and join the Player's Club at these places. It paid off. I havent had any privacy of info problems either. Thanks!
When I played the match play coupon I was dealt soft 19 and was feeling good, but this fine feeling was immediately snatched away with dealer BJ. No complaints about my luck so far though.
I was so hopped up about the coupons that I realized I wasn't using betting control like I had planned to. Wondering if I hadn't gotten into a few-at-the-table trap last time here, I wanted to avoid churning through my money making more bets than is wise, and had decided to lay out my chips in such a way as to pull from a preset pile that would mean 30 bets for a session in BJ and 60 bets per session in Craps. More about how I decided all that in a future blogpost, but part of the reason it was less for BJ was that I had never won a BJ session since I recently started playing it! I was off to such a good start I felt the only thing was to play for quite a while anyway. After enduring a bit of a losing streak I colored up to find I was up $125, even after tip, for the session, including the money won with the coupon. It's official: I won a session of BJ and would have even if I hadn't had the coupons!
More perhaps later. I did stay and gamble more, the Craps tables of Delaware have not smiled on me yet, though this time they didnt hurt me. Played more BJ too, without getting hurt. Wound up going home with basically the original winnings from that first session. Not a bad day and it was a nice, needed escape.
up or down longterm now "down $1561"
budget: in the black: $634 balance
Congrats on your BJ win! I recently lost track of time at Harrington and had to go and forgot I had brought my coupons with me. I played my $25 match play coupon and won and then let the $50 I won ride with my lucky ace coupon and won. Two hands and quadrupled my money. Good thing I had to run or I would have found a way to give it back.
Just saw that they are only going to run table games from 9a-4a Monday-Friday, but still open 24/7 on the weekend. Wonder if that will help their bottom line or drive away people to Dover where it's still 24/7...
that seems odd. Surely table games will be open on the weekend! it makes no sense to just run them during the week.
If it just means 24-7 on the weekend, but no table games 4 AM to 9 Am during the week, that they might do OK with.
reading that again, surely that is what you mean. Can't edit that.
I don't think it will be a biggie. Good to know though.
First Positive Player's Club ExperienceI am definitely someone who guards his personal information, so I really had to see the advice here many many times to go ahead and sign up for a player's card to be convinced. In particular I hate telephone solicitation, and I was really fearful I would just be setting myself up for a bunch of irritating calls from people who mysteriously got my phone number.
So I did go through the process in two places, The Greenbrier WV, and Harrington Racino DE. I requested that I get no phone calls and 'so far so good' as far as not getting the telephone jackasses [I guess that could change]. Apparently the Greenbrier put me into the "piker" file ... havent heard squat from them and even the email offers have stopped. I was afraid the same thing would happen with Harrington, but after a good solid month or so I finally got some coupons in the mail. It's not so bad: I'll be able to use a $25 matchplay coupon and a "free lucky ace" coupon that evidently differs from what others have heard of. It will pay even, Blackjack or otherwise [that's my interpretation], on which you may bet up to $100. I am thinking it will still be worth maximizing the $100? btw Harrington otherwise does pay 3-2 on BJ, the coupon makes an exception. If I understand the EV of these things it ought to cover my gas, perhaps my real variable expense, for a trip I was planning soon anyway.
Reading the fine print is necessary and I wouldnt say misinterpretation is impossible. In particular the matchplay coupons hint other games qualify but only expressly say Blackjack qualifies. Any advice about Delaware coupons you have used would be appreciated.
For phone numbers I usually put in the proper area code but then I just put in a string of "ones" which goes straight into their computers with no problems but makes it clear that I don't want phone calls. I don't mind giving them an email address but I don't want telephone calls even if they are offering me things for free, I don't want the calls. Sometimes the clerks don't really read the form, they just glance to see that there are no blanks on it. So those "ones" look like a phone number at first glance.
Craps for the Timid Previewpreserving this for the comments only. New post to appear someday.
This guy had better be a real close friend because after ""If you bet only the pass line for $5 for 30 times, I cover your losses for anything you lose past $9. You keep the first $4 of your winnings and I keep the rest, unless you win $80 or more, in which case you keep it all." he sure is likely to be less of a friend.
You are making a bet with a friend in order to lure him to the craps table, so don't start out with Party of the First Part or some such complex bet such as that quoted above. Don't bother with the complexity, just pour the darn cider in either his ear or your ear and be done with it.
He has to commit himself to betting up to 150.00. He knows it is unlikely he will lose all those initial bets and therefore he can use his winnings to make some of those pass line five dollar bets. He probably guesses "about half the time" he will lose, so he figures his commitment is really to 75.00 and so he will either go for it or not.
>thanks for the interesting read
glad you appreciate it and I do expect criticism. Bear in mind he won't go for this, IMO, unless risk is diminished. He also would turn down something too generous, such as just giving him some chips, although I wouldnt mind that as alternative. BTW winning half the time means breaking even, not being up $75
I wish I could edit my comments, I misquoted you by getting lost, but it fits ok
Yeah, I may have worded it poorly. What I meant was he was only considering how much he must take out of his wallet in order to make those 30 five dollar bets. He probably figures it will turn out to be "around 75.00" if he wins "about half the time" so his first though his what will this bet cost him as far as outlay.
Only after that step does he look at what he might gain by it ... and here you want him to have something that should be simple to calculate without spreadsheets or "ifs".
Good luck though. I hope your friend goes for it and I hope you each do well at it but if you want him to go for it, make the offer really simple.
Thanks for the advice. I'm not going to show him this table, just tell him I crunched numbers to decide what is fair. I *can't* give him a solid gold deal [or I might as well just give him chips]. I am trying instead to respond to his concern that he will just immediately get clobbered, feel like a fool, etc, by being able to say "I can guarantee you that you won't lose more than $9. The risk will be all mine"