ewjones080's Blog

Craps 7/4/13

So July 4th afternoon, I hit the craps table. They have a $3 table where I go. What happened confirms in my mind that dice influence is BS, at least for me personally. I started shooting left handed from SR1, which is not my dominant hand, but I've made it work in the past. Shot about eight times, 2 or 3 point-sevens, and no rolls more than 10. Left $50 down.

When I went back, I shot from straight out, but didn't try controlling, just tried to get in that that special "rhythm". Held the dice for probably 20 minutes, hit several points. Started out just placing the 6/8 for $3 and $3 Come. Came down with $2.50 odds for six eight, $2 for five nine, $1.50 for 4/10. Built these up to max odds (10x).. Made about $200, left $240 ahead.

Craps 5/16

Well the blog title is quite misleading, but I wanted to keep the pattern up. I didn't play craps this time. I've decided craps is likely unbeatable with influence. Even if it is possible it's probably not worth my time, money, and effort. So I went strictly with the intention of playing blackjack.

Of course, this time things didn't go so well. In less than two shoes I lost my $100 buy-in. Before I went, I decided I would play just that and leave if I lost it. But I decided to buy-in another $100. Things kept going similarly and was down to about $40 bucks. By the end of the fourth shoe, I finally got a nice string of wins and colored up $225, ahead $25.

So ultimately I won, but it wasn't a fun ride. I have now had 6 straight winning sessions.

Craps 5/10

For anyone that read my last post, I decided with all the PSO's last time I would start lower for this trip, but press a little more aggressively. So, I decided to start with $27 across, first hit take BOTH 6/8 to $12 each, then 5/9 $10 each and 4/10 $10 each on subsequent hits. I can't recall now, but I don't think I had ANY PSO's, so taking that route wasn't actually worth it. (Now that I recall, I think I had one, but I wasn't paying as close attention this time.) I had lot's of short rolls, thus I wasn't collecting anything. I did get one longer roll, but was using money hitting the 6 to press other bets, then wasn't pressing as much as in the past, so overall I probably cost myself a bunch of money last night.

I do remember on my last turn, I rolled 4 3's, 2 2's and 1 Yo. That's A LOT of horn numbers during one turn. I only hit four box numbers and ultimately colored up $80 down. Before going, I was watching a bunch of Penn & Teller's Bullshit, their Showtime TV series. I'm not saying this was the direct cause, but for some reason I didn't have the same excitement this time. I was getting a lot more doubt about dice control, and probably correctly. Maybe it's possible, but I certainly don't show any evidence of influence, even when the dice seem to be flying and hitting the table like they're supposed to. There really isn't any consistency in what I see.

What I brought away with me from this trip is this, Blackjack is a better game if you wanna win some money. I know how to count, but feel it's not really worth the time and energy to make just a few bucks an hour, plus dealing with casino heat. I also don't have the bankroll needed. So I don't count, I simply press my bet after each win, starting back at base after a loss. If I get up $100 I leave.

I've now had 5 consecutive winning sessions, and decided to focus more on playing blackjack. Again, my progression goes like this: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 75, 100, etc. Except, I double after a double down win, or use Blackjack win as next hand (i.e. $40 BJ, play $60 next hand). Thursday didn't start off good, by the end of the first shoe I was down $60 on $100 buy-in. Then I had a great streak about in the middle of the next shoe and I worked my way up to around $200 ahead (including next bet). Wish I had stopped there. When that string of wins ended, I was up $170. Lost the next two, and stupidly decided to play $30 for one of them. Tipped $5 and colored up $125 ahead. Including tips, I've made over $100 per session, and most sessions have lasted a shoe or less, with this one only lasting 2 shoes.

Any people well versed with the math of BJ, perhaps have a betting simulator, could you tell me the odds of having a 5 session string like this? I feel like I'm doomed for the next session, I've gotta lose SOMETIME. What would be my average loss playing this way, I'd have to guess average bet is about $22.5?

Craps play 5/3

If dice influence is real, then being slightly off can KILL you, undoing a lot of advantage.

So the plan today was play $54 across with $5 w/ double odds on the line, pressing 1 unit after each hit. I only shoot from first spot left of stick, and someone was there, so I waited around for an hour. Eventually, first spot RIGHT of stick opened up, and since I've shot from there before I went for it, but just went 27 across. Had a decent roll and was up 20. By the time the dice came around to me again, I was down $5, but had a great roll and jumped up to $50 ahead and took a break for dinner.

Since I was shooting well, I decided to go up to $54 across shooting from stick right after dinner. First three turns went PSO, PSO, seven, crap, crap, point SEVEN. The fourth was okay ahead $20 for that roll (so won $90, minus $70 for the original action). Then, point, number, seven. I'm down big, but stick left has now opened so I switched. Very first turn from there I won about $100, then PSO and colored up.

At this point, I'm down about $240 and thinking I'm done for the night. After about a half hour I go back though, deciding to play just $27 across. First turn ain't much, can't remember but somewhere around winning my action back. Second is awesome, I hit 5 5's, 4 9's, 2 4's sixes and tens and an 8. I win about $100 on this roll. I decide to do $44 inside with $5 4/10, hit a couple numbers, get $15 back and seven out. That was it for me on craps, down $150.

My three best rolls of the night just $27 across, while the four PSO's were $54 across. This seems to be a common theme for me, without SO MANY PSO's I would be ahead quite a bit, cause I'll always get a decent roll, but those PSO's just kill me. I simply don't know how to protect myself from th ose PSO's though besides betting smaller, but that of course hurts me on good rolls. What would you guys do?



And once again BJ saves the day. I buy in just $50 doing $10 a hand, pressing by $5 after win, doubling after double down win, and over the course of 6 hands I go from $20 to $210, then lose $10 on next hand and color up. Again, in less than a shoe, I win $150 and I'm even for the day. My craps bankroll is still in tact, cause if I had been down $250 I probably wouldn't have played again for awhile. I'm going to be playing scared next time though, because those PSO's will be weighing heavily on my mind. Not sure how I should play.

Craps Play 4/26

I waited a week for THIS...

Well I chickened out and instead of playing 3 units on every number like I said I would in my last post, I decided to do just 2 units. I think overall that was a good idea. But I did press one unit after each hit. Here's how the session went.

When I got to the table I was the only one there, first turn hit 3 or 4 numbers and lost about $10. Then the table started filling up. Second was PSO, third was PSO, fourth was seven-PSO. Feeling like a total dumbass at this point. Fifth, hit a couple numbers, lost about $40. Sixth, hit a couple again, lost about $30. So now I'm starting to think that either dice control is either total BS or that it is possible, but being slightly off can really hurt you, since my SRR was like 3 at this point. Or it was just some REALLY negative variance.

Before my last turn (since I only plan on shooting 7 times per session), I had $100 that I had won back , plus about $150 in my rail. Minus $70 in action when my first roll starts I stand to lose $320, but I FINALLY started hitting some numbers. I did roll 3 2's during the roll, which I don't like. I did hit a couple 10's, 3 4's, 2 eights, 1 five, and SEVEN sixes, including 3 points (10, 6 and 4) and NO nines. So technically I rolled 8 sixes, only getting paid on 7. But here is how I pressed: started with 12, went to 18, 24, 30, 42, 60, 90, 120. I did keep track of my rolls, but not perfectly.. I rolled in the vicinity of 23-25 rolls. The fours and sixes saved me and to my surprise when I was done, I was ahead $25, tipped ten.

I should have ended there, but oh well. I had a couple beers and went back to the table, this time only planning on shooting four times. Those last four turns weren't nearly as bad, but I still didn't win anything, but I also didn't go PSO. Got close to winning money back twice, and hitting one number once. But I think I did worse on other shooters. I was down $85 total at that point.

So, in rare form I go to blackjack again. Buy in 100 playing one-on-one. In about 1/3 of a shoe I double my buy, get to $15 ahead for the day and leave.

Basically it felt useless to go, because while I was walking out of the casino with $6 more than I walked in with, it's an hour drive each way, probably lost money after gas.

One thing I will mention, that if dice influence is real, I think it's bad to have a lot of spin, and I think I had a lot more spin than last time, because the dice scattered a lot more. And the one good roll, several rolls went totally crazy and definitely didn't show any control or influence. I'll try again next week, and if I get a couple rolls like this weeks good one, along with less PSO's, then I'll be walking out with a pretty decent win.