ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Sep 06, 2019

THE HOUSE EDGE WILL EAT UP YOUR POTENTIAL WINS IN CRAPS.

I just tripled the House Advantage from 0.5% in Blackjack to 1.5% to cover the PL, DC, and Place Bets of 6 & 8 on the Craps table.


If you play 100 bets, the square root would be 10 bets; HA would be 1.5 bets.^^^^^^^^^(-11.5, +8.5)
If you play 400 bets, the square root would be 20 bets; HA would be 6 bets.^^^^^^^^^^(-26, +14)
If you play 900 bets, the square root would be 30 bets; HA would be 13.5 bets.^^^^^^^^(-43.5, +16.5)
If you play 1,600 bets, the square root would be 40 bets; HA would be 24 bets.^^^^^^^^(-64, +16)
If you play 2,500 bets, the square root would be 50 bets; HA would be 37.5 bets.^^^^^^^(-87.5, +12.5)
If you play 3,600 bets, the square root would be 60 bets; HA would be 54 bets.^^^^^^^^(-114, +6)
If you play 4,900 bets, the square root would be 70 bets; HA would be 73.5 bets.^^^^^^^(-143.5, -3.5)
If you play 6,400 bets, the square root would be 80 bets; HA would be 96 bets.^^^^^^^^(-176, -16)
If you play 8,100 bets, the square root would be 90 bets; HA would be 121.5 bets.^^^^^^(-211.5, -31.5)
If you play 10,000 bets, the square root would be 100 bets; HA would be 150 bets.^^^^^^(-250, -50)


The more you play at a 1.5% HA, the more it's going to eat up any positive variation you can get until you are totally in the hole. Win early, and win big!
These calculations are for 1 standard deviation. YMMV
Seems like the peak is somewhere around 1,000 bets +/-, with a top upside just above 16 bets at 1 SD.
I should stick to a 25 unit buy-in and try to win 10 units to double my money.
The craps tables are $5/$10 but the BJ tables are $25.
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Craps Simulator - Dice Setting - Gambling - Page 1 - Forums - Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/33947-craps-simulator/
After 5,000 PL bets, you'll theoretically be down 70 bets and you'll need to be up 2SD (+35 bets x 2) to be above even.

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Sep 07, 2019

Quote:

Win early, and win big

I read that as 'Be lucky or lose'. Not much of a strategy.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Sep 08, 2019

"THE HOUSE EDGE WILL EAT UP YOUR POTENTIAL WINS IN CRAPS"



What a revelation! Who knew? Tell the Wizard he should start a website to talk about this*



*well, actually, maybe he should talk about it more, there is a certain member who joined on June 15, 2018, and seems to be only just now figuring this out

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Sep 06, 2019

The house edge will eat up your potential wins in Blackjack.

If you play 100 hands, the square root would be 10 hands; HA would be 0.5 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-10.5, +9.5)
If you play 400 hands, the square root would be 20 hands; HA would be 2 hands.^^^^^^^^^^(-22, +18)
If you play 900 hands, the square root would be 30 hands; HA would be 4.5 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-34.5, +25.5)
If you play 1,600 hands, the square root would be 40 hands; HA would be 8 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-48, +32)
If you play 2,500 hands, the square root would be 50 hands; HA would be 12.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-62.5, +37.5) *
If you play 3,600 hands, the square root would be 60 hands; HA would be 18 hands.^^^^^^^^(-78, +42)
If you play 4,900 hands, the square root would be 70 hands; HA would be 24.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-94.5, +45.5)
If you play 6,400 hands, the square root would be 80 hands; HA would be 32 hands.^^^^^^^^(-112, +48)
If you play 8,100 hands, the square root would be 90 hands; HA would be 40.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-130.5, +49.5)

If you play 10,000 hands, the square root would be 100 hands; HA would be 50 hands.^^^^^^^(-150, +50) PEAK
If you play 40,000 hands, the square root would be 200 hands; HA would be 200 hands.^^^^^^(-400, 0)
If you play 90,000 hands, the square root would be 300 hands; HA would be 450 hands.^^^^^^(-750, -150)
If you play 160,000 hands, the square root would be 400 hands; HA would be 800 hands.^^^^^(-1200, -400)
If you play 250,000 hands, the square root would be 500 hands; HA would be 1,250 hands.^^^^(-1750, -750)
If you play 360,000 hands, the square root would be 600 hands; HA would be 1,800 hands.^^^^(-2400, -1200)
If you play 490,000 hands, the square root would be 700 hands; HA would be 2,450 hands.^^^^(-3150, -1750)
If you play 640,000 hands, the square root would be 800 hands; HA would be 3,200 hands.^^^^(-4000, -2400)
If you play 810,000 hands, the square root would be 900 hands; HA would be 4,050 hands.^^^^(-4950, -3150)
If you play 1,000,000 hands, the square root would be 1,000 hands; HA would be 5,000 hands.^^(-6000, -4000)

The more you play at a 0.5% HA, the more it's going to eat up any positive variation you can get until you are totally in the hole. Win early, and win big!

Seems there's a peak somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000 hands. Let me see if I can find it.
If you play 12,100 hands, the square root would be 110 hands; HA would be 60.5 hands.^^^^^^(-170.5, +49.5)
If you play 15,625 hands, the square root would be 125 hands; HA would be 78 hands.^^^^^^^(-203, +47)
If you play 22,500 hands, the square root would be 150 hands; HA would be 112.5 hands.^^^^^(-262.5, +37.5) *
If you play 30,625 hands, the square root would be 175 hands; HA would be 153 hands.^^^^^^(-328, +22)

* If I wanted a win goal of 37.5 hands, I should settle for it somewhere between hands 2,500 and 22,500, and the sooner the better. I could lose 7 times 37.5 units at the latter number of hands.

I'd probably stick to near 400 hand sessions and either lose 25 hands or win 20 hands and quadruple my buy-in.

These calculations are for 1 standard deviation. YMMV
If I play 400 hand sessions and have a 2 standard deviation streak, I could be down 42 hands or up 38 hands, (and get to my 37.5 unit win goal).
If I play 10,000 hand sessions and have a 3 standard deviation streak, I could be down 350 hands or up 250 hands.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Sep 06, 2019

Colorado casino customers prosecuted for playing abandoned slot credits

Colorado casino customers prosecuted for playing abandoned slot credits
https://kdvr.com/2017/11/15/casino-customers-prosecuted-for-playing-abandoned-slot-credits/

Comments

SER8729
SER8729 Sep 10, 2019

Does anyone know how to register here? us open golf tips https://usopen-golf.com/tipsters/

I want to buy tickets and enjoy the game. I love tennis and I'm a terrible gamer. I want to earn and enjoy the game.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Sep 03, 2019

Video Poker Progression

I thought I saw some 20 coin VP at the casino. How to play that? Single coin for the 1st 100 hands, 2 coins for the next 100 hands, 3 coins for the next 100 hands...? Keep going until you hit some 4 of a kind win goal then reset your bet to 1 coin?

Four of a kind odds = 1 / 423 https://www.videopoker.com/learn/statistics/

VIDEO POKER PAY TABLES https://www.videopoker.com/learn/pay_tables/

Comments

bobbartop
bobbartop Sep 04, 2019

I've seen plenty of 20-coin machines, but I really don't understand what you're asking. Sorry, maybe I'm slow in the head, and old.



One of the more frequent 20-coin machines I see is the Triple Deuces for 5-cents. Fairly common.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Aug 25, 2019

Color Up - Craps with a Dealer at the table

Color Up is a Craps YouTube channel where the host tries out different craps strategies, some suggested. In this episode he invites a Dealer to play with him. They take turns rolling the dice. Episode 1 has the host rolling, but the Dealer being stickman; and Episode 2 is reversed. The Dealer has so much craps lingo, it's worth a watch just for that!

My Favorite Strategy with Live Craps Dealer Part 1 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GT4-KMUyvQc
My Favorite Strategy with Live Craps Dealer Part 2 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgNkul9XX1A

My takeaway from watching this is I'm going to re-figure my Passline Progressive, but not quite to what these two were doing. If I can win a 10 bet session for every win past 11 in a row on the Passline, I'm gonna start with that.

PS: Just got an antivirus threat on a casino game I had on my Windows 98SE machine. Just copying files to a new 10 TB hard drive.