ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Nov 05, 2018

My revised Army System, The Mario Bomb, lol.

I randomly read The Army System to make $1500 with $5 on the 4 & 10 to start with. I feel a bit nervous not getting paid back soon enough so I modified it a bit.
I'd Buy the 4 & 10 for $25 each after the come-out. When it hits, remove bets from the 4 & 10, and place $100 on the 5 or 9. When the 5 or 9 hits, I'll have $240, so I'll keep $60 (to pay off my original 4 & 10 bets), remove the 5 or 9 bet, and place $180 on the 6 or 8. When the 6 or 8 hits, place $300 on the other 6 or 8 and keep $90. I'm trying to mimic the Fire Bet a little so I get paid something for a 4th, 5th & 6th hit instead of everything on the 6th hit. When the 2nd 6 or 8 hits, I'll have $650, so I'll keep $150 and put $500 on the other 5 or 9 (that hasn't hit yet, or not). No word yet if my local casino lets me buy the 5 or 9 at this level. If I win, I'll have $1200, and I'd pocket $150, and Buy the other 4 or 10 for $1000 + $50 Vig. When the last 4 or 10 wins I win $2000 and for $50 more I can keep my bet up and have almost $2400 already, or nearly 50 times my 2 original bets. Extra wins will add $1950 a piece.

On a repeat: If I thought this shooter was going a lot further, I could split my Buy 4 or 10 bet to $500 a piece, if one hits I could move to the 5 or 9 at $2000. If the table max is higher than $2K, a win on the 5 or 9 would get me to $4800. I could pocket $1200 and bet $3600 on the 6 or 8, pocket $1800 on that win and bet $6000 on the other 6 or 8. A win would then get me $13,000, so I'd pocket $3000 and bet $10,000 on the 5 or 9 again. If the 5 or 9 wins, I'd pocket $4000 and Buy the 4 & 10 for $10000 each. Each win pays $19500.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Oct 10, 2018

What is a "World" or "Whirl" Bet?

Heavy tries to explain that he can run progressions on the Whirl Bet with a $2 High-Low.

https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?t=4366

I can set the dice for the 3-yos on come-out rolls with a line bet down, or after the point is established and go on a marathon trying to get 6 hits in a row on a progression. Which progression should I use? Press the Whirl bet 1 unit after each win, or do an extraordinary press progression that could take me to 12-17+ units on the whirl by the 6th bet? A 7-winner/7-out will just give me my whirl bet back as a push.

I think the High-Low Heavy means is $1 on the 12 and a $1 on the 2, so he can crank up his 2, 12 win amounts. He mentioned other players put $1 on the craps-3 to even out the payout among craps numbers. I'm a dollar short so I'll have to stick with the $26 payout for the 2, 12, and $11 payout for the 3, 11 on a $5 unit bet.

If I hit the 3/11 six times in a row,
I'll win $11 minus $5 to press 1 unit & back to $6,
win $22, and I'm up to $28, then press 1 unit & back to $23,
win $33, and I'm up to $56, then press 1 unit & back to $51,
win $44, and I'm up to $95, then press 1 unit & back to $90,
win $55, and I'm up to $145, then press 1 unit & back to $140,
win $66, and I'm up to $206, with $30 still on the Whirl bet.
If my 7th win at $35 was a 2/12, I'd nearly double my winnings with an extra $182.

If I was going to amplify a progression:
1st win: add 1 unit
2nd win: add 1 unit, 2 units if a 2, 12
3rd win: add 2 units, 3 units if a 2, 12
4th win: add 3 units, 4 units if a 2, 12
5th win: add 4 units, 6 units if a 2, 12
6th win: add 6 units, 8 units if a 2, 12
7th win: add 8 units, 12 units if a 2, 12
8th win: add 12 units, 16 units if a 2, 12
9th win: add 16 units, 24 units if a 2, 12

If I hit the 3/11 six times in a row,
I'll win $11 minus $5 to press 1 unit & back to $6,
win $22, and I'm up to $28, then press 1 unit & back to $23,
win $33, and I'm up to $56, then press 2 units & back to $46,
win $55, and I'm up to $101, then press 3 units & back to $86,
win $88, and I'm up to $174, then press 4 units & back to $154,
win $132, and I'm up to $286, with $60 still on the Whirl bet. Press 6 units and back to $256.
If my 7th win at $90 was a 2/12, I'd nearly triple my winnings with an extra $468.

I'm told there is likely a payout maximum for Whirl bets that may be around the $575 bet mark, at $3000.

Comments

FleaStiff
FleaStiff Oct 11, 2018

My usual response for all those exotic bets with strange names is "a bet to avoid making'' and if that is not a sufficient deterrent the thing to remember is it does not matter what the player next to you would call that bet, just be sure that YOU and the CREW know what you mean so there is no later arguments about "in xxxxx that term means''.



What is that phrase about four bad bets simultaneously.... it never matters which is 'heavy' because they are all bad.

ChumpChange
ChumpChange Oct 12, 2018

I made 120 World Bets on WinCraps and only won 23 of them, lost 97 of them.

Wagered $730, Won $406, Lost $600, Down $197. -26.5% vs -16% expected.

Highest Bet: $15 (Add 1 unit on win).

This after WinCraps hits craps number 5 times in a row all night trying to avoid my $6 PB 6.



Later: I made 361 World Bets and only won on 75 of them, lost on 286 of them for a net 211 losses.

Wagered $2260, Won $1451, Lost $1805, Down $354. -15.66% vs -16% expected.

Highest Bet: $20 (Add 1 unit on win).

Highest Win: $52

Average Wager: $6.26

Average Win: $19.35

Expected Value: -$361.60 (-$1 a bet)

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Oct 10, 2018

Win $1000 a day on the Don'ts?

Article link: Shooting From The DonítsÖA Journey of Opportunity - Part 8
https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad150dontpart8.htm

Let me give you a perfect world example:

Ø Letís start with a $25 flat-bet on the Donít Pass.

Ø Weíll ignore any Come-Out bets for a moment and get right to the Point.

Ø Letís say we roll a 5 as the PL-Point.

Ø If you have a validated dice-influencing edge over the casino; then as a Darkside-shooter, full-Odds has to figure into your betting regimen. If you donít have an edge, then you are merely gambling and this discussion is moot.

Ø At a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds table, the casino will allow your Darkside Odds to be wagered at up to 6x your flat DP-bet amount.

Ø If your DP line-bet is $5; then you are permitted to Lay up to $30 in Odds no matter what the Point is.

Ø In this example, our $25 DP-bet will be backed up with $150 in 6x-Odds.

Ø Letís say that we can pretty well 7-Out almost every time we need to. Thatís not to say that we can 7-Out on demand, but rather that we can almost always 7-Out before accidentally repeating the PL-Point.

Ø A DP line-away winner will pay us $25 on the flat-bet and at a 2:3 payoff for the PL-Point of 5, our Odds generate another $100 in revenue. In total, we now have $125 to the good.

Ø A PL-Point of 4 or 10 will generate $100 in net-winnings for the same $25 DP and $150 in Odds wager; while a similarly funded DP-bet against the PL-Point of either the 6 or 8 will spin-off $150 in total earnings.

Ø If we can manage to do that for just eight of our hands in a row ($125 average-win per hand times 8 hands), weíll easily get to our $1000/day win-goal with very little problem.

Comments

Zcore13
Zcore13 Oct 10, 2018

You could have ended right after "if you have a validated dice influencing edge...". No such thing. End of story.

BaccaratKid
BaccaratKid Oct 22, 2018

I find that when the dice go the way I bet, I make $1000 a day. When they don't, I lose. Strange the way that works!!

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Oct 08, 2018

Columbus Day Craps 2018

It's a Monday and I had 2 $10 match plays waiting for me so I thought I'd use them up since they expired today. Got to the tables at 3 pm and one was packed and the other wasn't but the limits were $5 higher on each than normal for a Monday. So I had to double my buy-in to play at the $10 table. I tried to put $12 down on the Don't Come with my match play and the dealer said I could only use them on Pass, Don't Pass or Field Bets; not on Come or Don't Come or any other bets. So I picked up my bet and gave the other match play to the dealer to be signed. While I was waiting, the stick person skipped me. I don't know what to make of this crowd so I'm doing my single Don't Comes with a 6 or 8 PB up after the 2nd DC point gets set up. The 3rd shooter was from hook right. I think I won 2 DC's and 3 PBs while he shot, but he made the 5 point Fire Bet that 3 people were on. The guy next to me bought in for $100, and he was making $10 Come bets with $15 odds in addition to his line bet. By the end he was probably betting $40 Come with $80 odds. He colored up after that roll with $1600. The stickwoman told the old man to put that money in a trust fund for her, lol.

I shifted places when a spot opened up and noticed a sign by the boxman that said table minimums will rise at 3:40pm. I was wondering, because it was 5 o'clock, what that was about. Then I see the dealer use some kind of remote control to change the digital display to a $15 table, and I left immediately. I could have left 40 minutes in ahead $12, but I lost $62 instead.

I've gotta win like 35 units to get $1000+ ahead at the $6 table, before I upgrade to the $15 tables, where a similar win would get me near $2500.

Comments

ChumpChange
ChumpChange Oct 09, 2018

I'm working on a Come progression. Since I rarely get more than a couple wins in a row on the come-out comes, there's no progression there. The progression would be on odds.

Come Bet: $6

Odds progression: $10, $10, $15, $20, $25, $35, $45, $25, $35, $45, $45.

Optionally use in place of an $18 PB 6 or 8. If my 7 come with odds wins were on the 6/8, I'd have won $219 after the next bet was made.

Odds on 5, 9: add $1 to bets that end in $5.

FleaStiff
FleaStiff Oct 09, 2018

You trying to tell us the crew doesn't like your style of play and so changes the limits just to annoy you?



I thought that only happened to FleaStiff.

ChumpChange
ChumpChange Oct 09, 2018

They're putting me on notice they are greedy bastards on weekends and holidays, so go home. Yes.

I was there until 10 pm the previous Monday at a $5 table. It's the same bunch of senior citizens who show up at the table week after week, but some bet large.



They've been known to raise the tables from $15 to $25 on a Saturday night after a hot roll in order to break up the action.



In this case, the clock on the sign preceded the hot roll by just a few minutes but didn't go into effect until a few shooters after the hot roll. (100 minutes)



They only keep 1 or 2 craps tables open, and maybe 3 or 4 blackjack tables open outside of the high limit room; but they've surely got many more tables than that that sit empty. There's talk the casino could go bankrupt next year, and it only opened last year.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Oct 01, 2018

2 DC & PB 6 or 8

I'm getting tired of the rest of the table bringing me down, but the Point-7-outs continue. I rescued a 3 session loss in 6 hours by playing Don't Come with my usual bet progression that leads to a session win with 6 wins in a row. I'd let these shooters play the line without me and they'd throw 7's and craps before setting a point. I'd come in with a Don't Come bet, and more often than not it would move to an inside number. I'd wait for the shooter to make his point (or to knock my point out) then I'd make another DC bet after the come-out which may be a winner (or loser) for me. Then I'd make a Place Bet 6 or 8 opposite my DC bet if necessary. The Don't is a hedge to my Place Bet until either loses, then the Place Bet(s) stay up for the rest of the hand. But I have to qualify the shooter by making him make a point first before I put up the Don't with the PB hedge, or when I put up a second Don't point to beat. I only have 1 Don't bet up at a time, but several times it lost on a 7-out in the DC box.

My PB 6 or 8 progression would be: $6, $6, $12, $12, $12, $24, $48, $48, $48, etc.
If I had raised my DC bets to $12, I'd cover both the 6 & 8 for $6.

Of course I didn't do all that because I was too desperate to collect $7 each time.

When I was throwing, I could have a few 30-50 roll throws, so I'd be a good candidate to run an Iron Cross when my PB 6 or 8 gets to $18 or $30.

Comments

BaccaratKid
BaccaratKid Oct 23, 2018

You toss these numbers around - 30 roll hands, 50 roll hands --- in the one just below this you mention your joy if you were to load up your bets and hit an 80 roll hand. When I used to smoke, 4% was the average THC content and many sore throats were the result. It seems you have come across today's strains that have up to 30% THC content. That is the only explanation for you to discuss 80 roll hands. Why bring up something that - if it occurs at all - only happens once in your lifetime? Base your calculations on reality, which is the occasional 7-out just as things start getting good. And remember, the longer you play a negative expectation game, the further into the hole you go.