Posted by AZDuffman
Oct 05, 2010

Week 4 report card

Last Week 2-0
Season 5-3-1
Net +2.4 units

Pretty simple report. Only found 2 games to pick. Said the Browns might win outright and the Jets would be a good pick even at -20 or so. Both predictions came perfectly true! Hope someone out there made some cash off the picks. And hopefully I can keep it going!

Posted by AZDuffman
Sep 30, 2010

Week 4 NFL Picks

We did a little better last week, back into positive territory, though by less than a unit. Bodog has me not knowing what to think this week. On one hand, they sent me a free $10 bet. Add that to the $50 rebate when you bet $20 per week and that is getting $60 back on $340 in play! With $34 being the vig, it looks to me as if this is $24 in real value, or one week of minimum betting for that promotion. They seem to know how to make a player happy.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Line at Publication: Cleveland +3
Vig: -110 on both

This was not a game I planned to pick pre-season when I looked at the schedule. I looked at it because the Browns are getting to be one of those teams you can make money on. Namely, a team few care about but has a few things to like that will keep games close. A constant underdog keeping it close is something I love to see. A little tale-of-the-tape is in order
Cleveland throws for 6.5 yards per attempt. Not great, but not bad. Better than Cincinnati 5.8. The Browns allow far more than average at 8.2 vs the Bengal's 5.6. But the Bengal's numbers are inflated by a 5-int Baltimore game, a feat unlikely to be repeated.
Get this-the Browns rush for more per attempt than their opponents! 5 vs 3 yards per rush. The Bengals get only 3.2 for and allow 4.2! Some of this is because Cleveland is easy to throw on, but at 5.8 YPA the Bengals will not be doing that.
The all-important Time-of-possession efficiency indicator puts this at Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 17. I picked this BEFORE reading the line. I think it overstates the Bengals and Cleveland will improve. I give Cleveland about a 40% chance of winning outright, not enough to take the moneyline even on a free bet but take the Browns and those three points.

New York Jets at Buffalo
Line at Publication: Bills +6
Vig: -110 on both

It takes a lot to pass up a home underdog. But in this case you should pass up the Bills. Why?
Coming off two road games; third divisional game in 4 games; and playing all good teams so far, I expect the Bills to be physically and emotionally tired.
The Jets seem to be a team that often has the Bills number for years, Even when the Bills were making their Super Bowl runs and the Jets were awful the Jets played them tough. Just one of those weird NFL Things.
The TOP Predictor says Jets 25, Bills 16. But it gets worse for the Bills.
The Jets are better at YPA, YP Rush Attempt, and INT ratio. These are all skill-factors that mean the Jets will win the time-of-possession battle. At 1.2 minutes to score a point, the Jets score fast—and the Bills allow scoring at the same 1.2 minutes to score 1 point. Meanwhile, the Bills take and 30 seconds longer to get a point as well as do the Jets opponents.
J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!!!!!!!!! Give the six points. They might win by 21!

Posted by AZDuffman
Sep 29, 2010

Week 3 report card

Picking against the defending champs seems to take guts. I got laughed at by people I know, and I just picked ATS. But the Saints didn't come marching in and the Falcons gave me one win. The Rams did exactly as I expected, well, I counted on a lower scoring affair but don't play over/unders. And the Broncos, grrrr, who goes for it on 4th when down by 10 and 9 minutes to go? Would someone please call that coach and at week 3......
tell him you need a TD and FG to tie it up, it does not matter what order you get them in?

My raw total now goes to 3-3-1 with my net rising to a positive 0.6.


dm Sep 30, 2010

It's easy to criticize if they fail. But, it does matter the order they get them. If they take the field goal first, and the opponent then gets a field goal, do you COMPREHEND the difference? Two possession game vrs one. Understand, Duffstein?

AZDuffman Sep 30, 2010

If they get NOTHING and the opponent gets a TD of FG you are even further behind. I stand by what I said, you need 10 points to send it into OT. With 9:00 left you have *maybe* three possessions. It doesn't matter the order you get the scores in. At the end of the game there is only a final score.

Posted by AZDuffman
Sep 25, 2010

Week Three NFL Picks

Well, at 1-3, last week was terrible. The KC pick worked exactly as I thought it would. I didn't count on the Ravens throwing FIVE pics, yet they still almost held on. And the Jacksonville pick, well, that is best learned from. This moves me to 1-2-1 in picks and a net of -.2. So time to move on and look at week 3......

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Line at publication: Broncos +6
Vig: -110 on both

The public doesn't seem to like the Broncos, I do. Well, I sort of do. I predict this one goes IND 23, DEN 20. Well within the spread. A few reasons why. The score is based on the Time-of-possession factor. Denver scores faster and holds off their opponents longer than do the colts. Denver throws for more per attempt but also allows more. In fact, both teams throw for about the same advantage over their opponents: about .7 more yards-per-pass each. Both have a +2 interceprion ratio. Indianapolis is better running. But there is the famous Denver home-field-advantage. Woof-wooof, take the home dog Broncos and the 6 points.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Line at publication Saints -4
Vig: -110 on both

These are not last years Saints, at least not yet. These Saints are taking over 40 seconds longer to score each point than last years model. They are being out-passed per attempt by their opponents. They are being out-gained per rush by 1.5 yards. They will be physically drained after an away MNF appearance. The Falcons, meanwhile, score faster and hold off scores longer. The TOP factor says NO 15, ATL 20! Not sure if I buy that, but I will take the Falcons and those 4 points.

Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams
Line at publication: Rams + 4
Vig: -110 on both

The Redskins have been one of my favorite, actually my #1 favorite team for keeping it close and beating spreads as an underdog this year and last. But I am not sold on them as a favorite. The TOP predictor says Washington 17, St Louis 14. However, the Skins have only played at home so far. St Louis has much better rushing though Washington is better in yards-per-attempt. I see nothing that would indicate Washington will overcome that 4 point spread. Take the home-dog Rams and those 4 points.

Posted by AZDuffman
Sep 18, 2010

Week two NFL Picks

Week 2 picks

Off to a fair start, no loss and credit for my play on the push. Now we have a little to go on, stat-wise. Sorry for the late publication, but with a night of dealing craps and early-season “setting up a system” work takes more than the usual time. Anyways, here they are.

Kansas City at Cleveland
Line at publication: Cleveland's -2
Vig: -110 on both

I got down at KC +2 and it has moved to +3, a sign that other bettors do not share my confidence. But KC is the team I like here. The Chiefs just came off a MNF victory in which they had every stat go against them, yet still found a way to win. The Browns came off a road game where they were quite ahead much of the game, led some state, yet found a way to lose. My time-of-possession factor seemed to work well last year and is bad for the Browns. It predicts KC 11, Cleveland 12. But that is not the entire story. Remember, KC played a good team last week, Cleveland played a bad team. KC ran for more than Cleveland, indicating their time-of-possession should increase, while I expect Cleveland to struggle to move the ball. Take KC and take the points.

Baltimore Raven at Cincinnati Bengals
Line at publication: Cincinnati +3
Vig: Ravens-even, Bengals -120

Another one the odds makers can't quite pick what with the 3 point line and weird vigs. The ravens will take this one for a few reasons. First is yards-per-pass attempt. For both teams are within a half a yard, but the Ravens held their opponent to just 3.5 yards against while the Bengals got out gained there by half a yard. In other words, I expect the Ravens to get +1 yards-per attempt, a big thing. On the ground neither team was the better of last week's opponent, but the Bengals simply got unexpectply run over, giving up 11 yards per rushing attempt, about twice what the Ravens gave up per attempt and twice what they gave up in total. The TOP factor is hard to figure on this one due to some too-wild data from only one week, but I expect a final score of Baltimore 17, Cincinnati 10. Well above the three points you need to give and far better than paying 20% in vig to take the home-dog.

Jacksonville at San Diego
Line at publication: Jacksonville +7
Vig: -110 on both

Big underdogs can mean big profits. This is curious. Jacksonville beats a good team from last year, San Diego loses to a bad team from last year, and yet the Jaguars are being given 7 points? Lets look at the tale of the tape. JAX had a better yards-per-pass for though they were out-gained by their opponent while the Chargers out gained their opponent. JAX had a gained more on the ground, more per rush attempt and had a better average then the Chargers and their opponent. Moreover, SD gave up 134 yards on the ground while JAX gained 135. SD gained 109 but JAX gave up 89. Put another way, JAX should continue on their way while SD needs to overcome. My TOP indicator puts it Jacksonville 22, San Diego 14. Will this hold? I doubt it as there is only one week of data. But it sure gives me reason to take those Jaguars and that 7 points.