AZDuffman's Blog

Week 7 NFL Picks

Shorter format this week since most of what I am analyzing looks so much the same in Sunday's games. No Bodog line on JAX/KC so this may be ammended by Friday night. Keep tuning back.

St Louis at Tampa Bay
Line at publication: TB -3
Vig: STL -115, TB -105

A close one to pick based on the line, but I like Tampa Bay for a few reasons. First, the Rams won big last week and I expect a little let-down after they think they are better than they are. TB meanwhile was taken to the woodshed and has something to prove. Pulling off an upset against a +8.5 line is no small feat. But they were at home then and will not be this week. We remember what happened to them in Detroit a few weeks back. I do since I lost that bet. Neither team out YPAs their oppoent and both allow more YPA than they throw for. Or in other words neither has to overcome to maintain. But get this, TB has a +7 INT ratio! That is one more per game than they give up. STL is even. The TOP Projector has this one dead even, but I am taking TB to win based onthe less tangibles. Take TB, give the 3 points but get the on-sale vig.

Washingon at Chicago
Line at publication: CHI -3
Vig: WAS -125, CHI +105

Another close one, the TOP factor puts it Bears 19 Redskins 18. Both teams -1 INT ratio. Chicago has a better YPA at 7.6 for, 6.0 against while the Skins are 7.2/7.1. Being in Bear Country expect the Bears to overcome as they have less to overcome and the crowd will be for them. The Redskins are still getting their confidence and may get a mid-season letdown. Give the 3, take the Bears, get a positive vig.

As a side note I have personally teased these two games to get +3 on both teams. This will *not* be part of the stats I take here, but after reading Wiz's fine teaser article I think it was a worthwhile experement.

Week 6 report card

The week was 1-1
The season is now 7-5-1.
Sadly I am now only up 2.2 units.

St Louis continues to be a team I like to follow. The Broncos came so close to prediction! Should have done a teaser for part of the bet.

Week 6 NFL Picks

Week Six is hard to pick, mainly because there is little in the way of value in the lines. Lets be more clear, many lines are MIA. A few I didn't look hard at:

Browns at Steelers: Browns QB situation mars the chance to gobble lots of points. Also Bodog charging -115 to take such a big dog. At -110 and 14.5 to the Browns I would break my rule in betting on Steeler games. I do not think the Steelers will walk with it as many do.

Seahawks at Bears: -125 to take the underdog! Do I have a big “dummy” sign on me?! I am not some bus tourist at a state-line casino.

NO LINE AT ALL ON 6 of 14 games! WTF?

So, on to the two I will take a position on-----

Jets at Denver
Line at publication: Broncos +3
Vig: Denver +105, Jets -125

Clearly the market-makers want people to take the Broncos. Jet-betters are eating the vig on both bets AND giving points. But why? The coming off a Monday Night Game, a sure thing to tire a team. Denver throws for more per attempt and keeps the YPA closer to their opponents. Add in the Denver classic home field advantage and you have something. The TOP Predictor puts this one right at 3-4 points advantage for the Jets. Given the above and the great price, take a chance, take the home dog Borncos.

San Diego at Saint Louis
Line at Publication: Rams +8.5
Vig: -110 on both

Even though the Saints are not involved, it is two cities named after saints. Whatever that is good for. What is good are some numbers. The TOP Predictor puts this one at Chargers 25, Rams 22. Can this hold up? Maybe. San Diego is mostly about the air-attack. St Louis actually holds their opponents to 6.9 YPA against. That is fairly average, but so is the Charger pass defense, holding their opponents to 6.7. But 6.7 is more than the Rams throw for while the Ram Pass “D” holds to far less than the Chargers 9 YPA for. Or more simply, the Chargers must overcome, the Rams must maintain. The Chargers must overcome on the road, where they do not do near as well as at home.

The Rams are on sale after a disgusting showing last week. Take the Rams and the points.

Week 5 Reprot Card

Well, Saint Louis totally went off form and cost me there. But later in the day we made up for it. I keep saying the Saints are not last years Saints. They are sitll priced as last years model when the car has been redesigned and lots of standard equipment missing (see VW Jetta.) Second time there was value the other way and I expect it not to be the last.

The week was 1-1
The season is now 6-4-1.
Sadly I am now only up 2.3 units.

But for those who doubted me taking Arizona? It is all in fun, but:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXLqMB6vBic

Week 5 NFL Picks

Week five is here, a quarter of the season behind most teams. The odds-makers seem to be fixated on last year's results, though, in their line pricing. This gives a value play or two. In fact, I found two I like. I found more but the folks at bodog scratched one line and didn't issue on another I like, so I can only publish 2.

BTW: Why do they “scratch” some lines but just not issue on others?

Saint Louis at Detroit
Line at publication: Detroit -3
Vig: -110 on both

I actually had to make sure I read this right when I saw the Rams are getting the points. But they are. Probably because the odds-maker figures both teams are pretty close and it is in Detroit. I guess they figure few people will be paying attention here. But you should. A few reasons why”

Both teams get out-passed per attempt. But Detroit gets out-passed 6.1/8.7 while St Louis is only 6/6.8. So there is some advantage there. The Rams actually out-gain their opponents per rush attempt while the Lions get out-gained. This comes in big for ball-control since they both kind of stink in passing.

They both split their TOP almost to the minute with their opponents. But the Rams score faster than their opponents while the Lions score slower. The TOP Factor says STL 23, DET 17. I expect it to hold or go better for Saint Louis since they have all the important factors to win the TOP battle. And yet you still get 3 points for taking the Rams. TAKE THEM!

New Orleans at Arizona
Line at publication Arizona plus 7
Vig: -110 on both

I'll admit it—the big home dog attracts me here. The TOP Factor says Saints by 12. I am going to go against it this time. Why? Well, both teams are being dominated on all averages per play. Both score slower than the other teams they play. Most of the factor is because NO keeps the ball 35 minutes while Arizona keeps it 25—you read that right, a perfect match. But then I look at the final scores. The Saints have not covered 7 points all year. The Cardinals, OTOH, have kept it close at home. Take those 7 points on the home dog Cardinals. Don't bet over 1 unit.