AZDuffman's Blog

Week 10 report card

1-1 for the week now 10-9-1 for the year, there has to be an easier way to make the 1 unit I am up. Picks tomorrow when the lines settle down.

Week 10 NFL picks

Only express picks this week as I am totally worn out this week and have to travel this weekend (again.)

Jets at Browns
Line at Publication: Browns +3
Vig: Jets -120, Browns Even

The Browns have gone from pathetic to a mid-tier team that will wreck the day of a team that overlooks them. The Jets were ranked #2 on FoxSports this week, but I do not see it. The bookmaker clearly is confused, look at the vig. The Browns are getting more and more confident, take them and the 3 points.

Vikings at Bears
Line at publication: Bears +1
Vig: Vikings -115, Bears -105

The teams are very close in every area, which tells me take the home team, take the points, take the vig-on-sale. Take the Bears.

Week 9 report card

0-1-1 a bad week, but then again Wade Phillips had a worse one. Fall to 9-8-1 and up 1.1 units. I should shoot myself for betting against the collapse of the Buffalo Bills, luckily it was a push. The Seahawks, well, lets just fugheddabaddit on that one.

Lines for this week looking very thin so not sure how they will go. I'll sleep on them and pick tomorrow.

Week 8 report card and week 9 picks

Last week was simply great. I went 2-0 bringing the season to 9-7-1 an up a net of 2.1 units. If I can keep that up the season will end up about 3 units and a nice bonus at bodog that effectively refunds the juice and then some. I played with some teasers personally, not here, and hit them all. Nothing like watching the games when everything is going right. Don't know if that or the election returns were more fun to watch! Onto week 9.


Since bodog refuses to put lines on games mid-week and those it does it has been pricing with punishing vigs we will use BetUS lines this week.

Chicago at Buffalo
Line at publication: Bills +3
Vig: Bears -110, Bills -115

I am going against what I usually do and paying more vig to take the Bills. First is objective. The TOP Projector says Bears 20, Bills 17. I think it will tip in the Bills favor based on it being played in Buffalo. Add in that the Bears average margin of victory is +2 this year. Passing the Bears are better for and allow less against. In fact, Bears and Bills match perfectly in YPA for/against with Bears getting about 1 yard more than they allow and Bills allowing 1 more than they get. But does this all add up to the Bears running away with it? I do not think so. The Bills are just playing hard lately. Sure they screw up and I have a motto “Never bet against the collapse of the Buffalo Bills.” But after a heart-breaker or two lately the Bills might even upset it here. Take the Bills +3. CONSIDER THIS FOR A TEASER!

Giants at Seahawks
Line at Publication Seahawks +6.5
Vig: -110 on both

The bookmakers have some kind of blue-light special on Seattle here. 6.5 points? TOP Predictor says NYG 22, SEA 24, largely based on the fact that the Giants give up points fast as they get them at 1.1 minutes of possession per point scored. Both pass better than their opponents though NY does so by more. But there is a problem with the G-Men. They like to complete it to Corner-backs and Safeties, with a -4 INT ratio to Seattle’s -1. Add in that east coast teams seem to dud on the coast and you should take the Seahawks and those 6.5 points. Another one to consider teasing.

Week 7 report card and week 8 picks

Week 7 was a disaster, 0-2. Now 7-7-1 and up .2 units. I made the mistake of picking favorites I was unsure about.

Been a busy week and bad lines at Bodog so no full writeup and using BetUs lines.

Take JAX +6.5. Dallas will not cover that.
Take STL -3, vig +100. Carolina won't come that close on the road. STL is a decent team at home this year.