Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 27th, 2021 at 7:58:10 PM permalink
Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks
AxelWolf
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:03:23 PM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks

Are we talking sports? Whatever the case, the answer is most likely yes, however, I would proceed carefully when playing at any offshore or unregulated online casino for significant amounts.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:07:20 PM permalink
Hi there mainly looking for live casino games etc live roulette where i can bet on the alternative outcome on another site.
Any mathematical way of proving it too be profitable? thanks for the reply
heatmap
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575


Any mathematical way of proving it too be profitable? thanks for the reply



be very meticulous i dont care if you have to use a pen and pencil to record it
ssho88
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March 27th, 2021 at 9:34:56 PM permalink
If you bet on Single 0 roulette with optimum WIN EXIT and LOSS EXIT, you can make 1.93 units per session(average session length is 81 spins).
OnceDear
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March 28th, 2021 at 2:06:25 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks

Hi Dexter,
Its value depends on how often it is repeatable: E.g. is it each day based on daily end of day loss?
If it is repeatable, then the way to get max value is to make one wager per day, win or lose. You decide whether you want max value with lots of volatility, or less value with minimum volatility.
I.e. you could bet on one number each day. Approximately once every 37 days, your win would return 35 of the lost days stakes and for the 36 days that you lost, your 15% cashback would reward you.
Or, you could cover say 2/3 of numbers each day for less volatile outcome but you would only get a loss rebate on about 1/3 of days.
Basically, the more days you are getting the rebate, but losing, the greater the benefit.
Only one wager per day though as you want to minimise exposure to the HE.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1703
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
SOOPOO
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OnceDear
March 28th, 2021 at 5:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Hi Dexter,
Its value depends on how often it is repeatable: E.g. is it each day based on daily end of day loss?
If it is repeatable, then the way to get max value is to make one wager per day, win or lose. You decide whether you want max value with lots of volatility, or less value with minimum volatility.
I.e. you could bet on one number each day. Approximately once every 37 days, your win would return 35 of the lost days stakes and for the 36 days that you lost, your 15% cashback would reward you.
Or, you could cover say 2/3 of numbers each day for less volatile outcome but you would only get a loss rebate on about 1/3 of days.
Basically, the more days you are getting the rebate, but losing, the greater the benefit.
Only one wager per day though as you want to minimise exposure to the HE.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1703



MATHEMATICALLY the above makes sense. But be prepared to not be paid because of an ambiguous, obscure T and C that the casino says you failed to follow. And this also does not include the simple possibility of the casino flat out cheating.

Good luck. Tread carefully!
Dexter1234575
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:18:49 AM permalink
Hi there this is a monthly rebate so looking for something i could exercise in volume too the get over the general variance of a single bet etc.
thanks for the reply
Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:19:43 AM permalink
can you explain this further please?
Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:21:05 AM permalink
This is not a casino where they will really care about betting etc and no limits etc
AxelWolf
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March 28th, 2021 at 7:01:23 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

Hi there mainly looking for live casino games etc live roulette where I can bet on the alternative outcome on another site.

I would be careful with that as well, they might notice that.

Have you done any research on the casino's reputation? (and you can't just use any old affiliate site and trust what they are saying) That would be the most important aspect before moving forward. I'm not sure if you want to say the name here or not. You can PM me the name and ill help check out their reputation.


This might help you. https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/loss-rebates/loss-rebates.html
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 28th, 2021 at 7:07:15 AM permalink
Hi thanks for your reply, its a friend that i know and trust who is in partnership with the casino and im an affiliate myself so thats how i can get 15% cashback on losses most wouldnt get this much, just trying too see if there is a way i can make a chunk from this edge i have :)
AxelWolf
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March 28th, 2021 at 7:45:34 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

Hi thanks for your reply, its a friend that i know and trust who is in partnership with the casino and im an affiliate myself so thats how i can get 15% cashback on losses most wouldnt get this much, just trying too see if there is a way i can make a chunk from this edge i have :)

This sounds like collusion and affiliate scalping, and I'm not judging, I'm just saying this is something they do look for, especially, when it comes to online casino affiliates. I have yet to see an online casino affiliate that doesn't specifically mention this type of behavior as being forbidden. usually, it just states you can't play under your own affiliate account.

In theory, there is an advantage to be had, but pulling it off may be tricky. You have to ask yourself what are the chances of it all going to hell and not getting paid when you win. Without knowing this, the casino could be free-rolling you. If you lose they let it continue, but when you win they scream fraud and keep everything. Does the theoretical advantage make up for the odds of that happening? I have no clue. That's a calculated risk you have to think about.
FYI I have a feeling this is something the owners of this site would highly frown on.

Good luck.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Mar 28, 2021
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MichaelBluejay
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March 28th, 2021 at 9:00:55 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

im an affiliate myself so thats how i can get 15% cashback on losses

If you're talking about referring yourself as a player from your affiliate account so you can get paid on your own losses, then (1) that's against the terms of your affiliate agreement, and (2) it's not fair to the casino.
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teliot
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March 28th, 2021 at 9:24:39 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

Hi there I have been offered 15% cashback on losses on an online casino.
Is it possible too make the odds now plus EV aka can i beat the bookies with my 15% cashback on losses?
If so how and what is the most efficient way of doing this?
thanks

Download my "Loss Rebate" spreadsheet and plug in the details.

My suggestion is Craps with full odds, if possible to play a very short session.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/loss-rebate-theorem-spreadsheet-with-risk-of-ruin
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
AxelWolf
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teliot
March 28th, 2021 at 9:49:38 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Download my "Loss Rebate" spreadsheet and plug in the details.

My suggestion is Craps with full odds, if possible to play a very short session.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/loss-rebate-theorem-spreadsheet-with-risk-of-ruin

Nice tool.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dexter1234575
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:08:16 PM permalink
This is not a mainstream casino too say and more of a low stakes casino, ive asked and they are happy with me playing myself with this cashback on losses. They think the casino will always win irrelevent of any cashback etc
But for sure will take into account too see if i can calculate any risk etc.
Thanks for the tip
MichaelBluejay
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:15:24 PM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

This is not a mainstream casino too say and more of a low stakes casino, ive asked and they are happy with me playing myself with this cashback on losses. They think the casino will always win irrelevent of any cashback etc.

I'm astonished that they allow this, but if that's really true, then go get 'em!
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AxelWolf
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:25:04 PM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

This is not a mainstream casino too say and more of a low stakes casino, ive asked and they are happy with me playing myself with this cashback on losses. They think the casino will always win irrelevent of any cashback etc
But for sure will take into account too see if i can calculate any risk etc.
Thanks for the tip

Assuming this is all true(I'm becoming very skeptical) one can only assume it's rigged or they will find a way to screw you.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dexter1234575
Dexter1234575
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March 29th, 2021 at 6:19:39 AM permalink
this is what im concerned about, if i do it at all i think i would keep on a very low money scale and just try too go unseen
AxelWolf
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March 29th, 2021 at 6:58:41 AM permalink
Quote: Dexter1234575

this is what im concerned about, if i do it at all i think i would keep on a very low money scale and just try too go unseen

I just want to make it clear, I dont think it would be unreasonable to find an online casino( one with a good reputation) that would, in fact, offer a 15% loss rebate. What I'm skeptical about is the fact that they would allow any affiliate scheme shenanigans.



Quote: Dexter1234575 " i would keep on a very low money scale and just try too go unseen"

You would be surprised how little it takes for some of the online casinos to notice. Even just a few hundred dollars in winnings can be a red flag for them. This isn't always the case, there are many casinos where large amounts go under the radar without any problems(until there is).



But let's assume they don't notice, and you keep the monies low... therein lies the problem, in order to take advantage of something like this, to where it's worth your while, you really need to be slinging around some bigger bucks.

If you think about it... let's say you invested 1k for the month and made one big bet(make sure they even allow large bets in the T&C's) what's that really worth?

You need to come up with a plan while thinking about risk vs rewards, figure out how much you want to toss at this, then use the suggested tools provided and figure out what it's worth. If everything works out, you can always scale up slowly.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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March 29th, 2021 at 7:24:31 AM permalink
I couldn't imagine making much off this promo if it is based on Monthly losses. If it was daily it would definitely be worth exploring.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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March 29th, 2021 at 8:02:55 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I couldn't imagine making much off this promo if it is based on Monthly losses. If it was daily it would definitely be worth exploring.

Yeah, it sounds very convoluted and risky for the amount of money you can make.

However, if someone can make a few hundred dollars a month without much effort while doing something they enjoy... AKA a hobby. There's nothing wrong with that. $200 a month could mean something significant to someone.


Back when my Brother was living in Columbia, I had mentioned there was a casino online where you could make a few hundred a month basically for free but with some hoops effort that was a little time-consuming. I told him it just was not all that interesting since it wasn't enough money to mess with. To him, that $200 USD was a significant amount he could really use.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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