Coronavirus math
Quote: SOOPOO
1% death rate as some big win?
99% recovery rate is the big
win, duh. I'll take those odds
any day.
Quote:The flu has never overwhelmed a modern health care system in our country like COVID-19 did to NYC in March/April/May.
Shouldn't have trapped all those
old people in hundreds of nursing
homes with a few Typhoid Mary's
to spread the virus. Oh well, live
and learn.
A month later, we are at 125,000 dead.
Victory!
A month later, we are at 125,000 dead.
Victory!
By the way, there are hundreds, if not thousands of blogs out there being written by CV19 victims. Rather than repeat old myths about 99% of people being fine, try reading some. Many of these survivors are left with decreased lung capacity and others have been left with conditions that will permanently disable them. A NYPD Officer just left the hospital after more than two months. His lungs are badly scarred and his future is very much in doubt. Thre are thousands of stories like this on the internet for anyone to search.
Quote: EvenBob99% recovery rate is the big
win, duh. I'll take those odds
any day.
Shouldn't have trapped all those
old people in hundreds of nursing
homes with a few Typhoid Mary's
to spread the virus. Oh well, live
and learn.
Bob, you would NOT have a 99% chance of surviving. That is an 'all comers' rate. If you are 72 (do i remember correctly?) your chance of dying would certainly be higher. And also remember, some of the survivors are diminished for life, with lung damage, limb damage, etc...
Edit... I must have been typing this post as Billy was posting his.... Great minds think alike...
However, I do agree that you should be able to determine your own risk tolerance, and if the risk of catching it and dying is acceptable to you, I believe you should be able to behave as you wish, as long as you follow state/local requirements.
Quote: billryanOn Memorial Day, after four months of the virus, the USA was at or just under 100,000 dead from Coronavirus.
A month later, we are at 125,000 dead.
Victory!
There were 62000 deaths from flu from Oct-Ap.
How many were dead from corona at the first
week of Ap, 75000? Less?
When you take into account the misreported
corona deaths, like listing somebody who
died in a car accident as corona because he
had the virus, the deaths from flu and corona
would be about the same. Why don't we shut
down the world economy for the flu? Because
that would be insane. Why aren't we all wearing
masks for the flu every year? Because that would
be insane.
Quote: SOOPOOBob, you would NOT have a 99% chance of surviving.
The odds of living are HUGELY in my
favor. If my immune system is so
weak it can't fight this off, I'm a
goner anyway, something is going to
get me.
The last person I would ask for advice
from is a doctor. They're all doom and
gloomers, always predicting the worst
to keep their asses from being sued.
Doctors always endorse the worst case
scenario, always playing the CYA game.
Quote: SOOPOO
Saying "most have herd immunity already" means you don't have any idea about how many people need to be infected to qualify as 'herd immunity'.
Maybe EB meant "heard immunity". He heard immunity was such and such.
Quote: EvenBobThere were 62000 deaths from flu from Oct-Ap.
How many were dead from corona at the first
week of Ap, 75000? Less?
When you take into account the misreported
corona deaths, like listing somebody who
died in a car accident as corona because he
had the virus, the deaths from flu and corona
would be about the same. Why don't we shut
down the world economy for the flu? Because
that would be insane. Why aren't we all wearing
masks for the flu every year? Because that would
be insane.
And if this had happened in 2016 rather than 2020 you'd be calling COVID the greatest catastrophe since WW2.
Quote: EvenBobThe odds of living are HUGELY in my
favor.
Are you in an old fall-out shelter or just the basement?
Quote: EvenBobMommy mommy, the sky is falling,
the sky is falling!! Do I have my
official Dr Foochi super duper
mask on? Should I wear it to
bed? We're all gonna dieeeeee...
lOLOLOL
Quote: lilredroosterhilarious
if it happens to you or yours you won't be laughing.....................................𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝
True. It's tough to laugh when you're intubated.
Quote: UP84True. It's tough to laugh when you're intubated.
Look how 'Dr' Foochi-Woochi lied to
us about masks. At the start he said,
nah, masks don't matter, forget about
masks. Now it's mask mask mask
out of his quackery mouth. He even
admitted he lied so there wouldn't
be a run on masks and doctors would
run out. Our Surgeon General told
the same lies, seen him around lately?
Never trust anything a doctor says
until you get it verified from at least
4 other sources. I can't count the
number of times doctors have been
wrong in the things they told me.
The first was in 1972 I needed to lose
40 pounds so I went on the new Atkins
diet. I told my doc and he went nuts,
ordering me off it and saying it would
kill me. 3 months later I had lost 50
pounds on Atkins and he fired me as
a patient, saying he wanted no part in
all the stuff that would go wrong with
me now.
I have list of quack crap from doctors.
I believe nothing they say about covid,
I want to see the actual stats when this
is all done. So far they've been mostly
wrong, the doctors. What else is new.
10,000 new cases IN FLORIDA TODAY ALONE!
Florida has now closed their beaches and bars
How is that we gotta get back to work at any cost and no mask policy going smh
Quote: darkozHoly crap
10,000 new cases IN FLORIDA TODAY ALONE!
Florida has now closed their beaches and bars
How is that we gotta get back to work at any cost and no mask policy going smh
DarkOz,
If you haven't read Leon Festinger's "When Prophecy Fails," now would be the time. It's a classic. The hardcore believers in getting back to work and no masks (no mas on no masks, eh?) are faced with certain states having to reverse course mightily. And it's going to get much worse. But when the bedrock of beliefs get shaken, true believers don't change their minds. They reroute their beliefs into things like all doctors lie, or we're still right -- the numbers are lies, or Texas has been taken over by Skrulls (Marvel Comics fans will get that one).
Take advantage of watching how people who are basically adhering to religious beliefs deal with disconfirming evidence. You may not get an opportunity like this the rest of your life.
Quote: redietzDarkOz,
If you haven't read Leon Festinger's "When Prophecy Fails," now would be the time. It's a classic. The hardcore believers in getting back to work and no masks (no mas on no masks, eh?) are faced with certain states having to reverse course mightily. And it's going to get much worse. But when the bedrock of beliefs get shaken, true believers don't change their minds. They reroute their beliefs into things like all doctors lie, or we're still right -- the numbers are lies, or Texas has been taken over by Skrulls (Marvel Comics fans will get that one).
Take advantage of watching how people who are basically adhering to religious beliefs deal with disconfirming evidence. You may not get an opportunity like this the rest of your life.
I know. It's clearly being witnessed.
Now they are claiming masks are deadly. I heard that CO2 is inhaled back by mask wearing causing death.
Oh those poor surgeon's dropping dead over the operating table.
Quote: darkozHow is that we gotta get back to work at any cost and no mask policy going smh
Going pretty well actually. Average age of new case is 34 years. I would expect a very low mortality rate with that. We just legislate mask wearing and we will be fine. The cost of not getting back to work sooner will decimate the economy, expect another market correction due to initial irrational exuberance. Just added to the not having covid by test, all the time working hard for the government. Nice trip to Biloxi three weeks ago. Vegas last week. Enjoying the home life?? SMH
Quote: DeMangoGoing pretty well actually. Average age of new case is 34 years. I would expect a very low mortality rate with that. We just legislate mask wearing and we will be fine. The cost of not getting back to work sooner will decimate the economy, expect another market correction due to initial irrational exuberance. Just added to the not having covid by test, all the time working hard for the government. Nice trip to Biloxi three weeks ago. Vegas last week. Enjoying the home life?? SMH
Lol, NY is open.
We got our Coronavirus cases down to almost nothing.
Florida and Texas are going back to lockdown. It will hit Vegas too.
Pretty soon you will have to travel to NY for your gambling
Oh wait, we instituted a 14 day quarantine to keep all the sick people out. Too bad;
Quote: billryanI was watching an interview with a scientist who has traveled the world fighting infectious diseases. She compared the stupidity she is witnessing here to what she encountered fighting Ebola in African villages.
You mean when our mighty civilized civilization laughs at those primitive people who can't or won't follow or believe simple directions and go around infecting each other?
Quote: rxwineYou mean when our mighty civilized civilization laughs at those primitive people who can't or won't follow or believe simple directions and go around infecting each other?
Plus when they start believing the witch doctor and local medicine man who says masks bad, infection good(Herd immunity).
One is waiting for bloodletting and leeches to be mentioned as safe cures for Coronavirus
It's bad either way - keep people at home for too long and they'll suffer unbearable economic toll and we'll see riots on the streets for sure.
Start alleviating lockdowns and social distancing measures and we see spike in infection and people filling hospitals, being sick and dying en masse and fear forcing them to stay home either way. Bad situation, especially for the US now, but the best one can do is postpone getting infected as of now. The virus WILL lose its potency with time (many such signals and some studies from Italy suggest exactly that).
Quote: darkozLol, NY is open.
We got our Coronavirus cases down to almost nothing.
Florida and Texas are going back to lockdown. It will hit Vegas too.
Pretty soon you will have to travel to NY for your gambling
Oh wait, we instituted a 14 day quarantine to keep all the sick people out. Too bad;
Well, what you are impugning, is that New Yorkers will all be wearing masks and social distancing whereas we, obviously did not. IOW you all are smarter. Shutting our bars should be a wakeup call to millennials. NYPost article about no increasing infections amongst protestors yesterday. Interesting. We need to rethink closing beaches everywhere.
Sorry, raised in Jersey, 12 miles from Manhattan, no need to travel to that cesspool any time soon. High school reunion next year, I'll keep you posted.
Quote: darkozHoly crap
10,000 new cases IN FLORIDA TODAY ALONE!
10,000 deaths??? Oh, wait, 10,000
new cases. Big deal, who cares.
10 times more testing will do that
to the stats. We'll let you know
when the sky is falling, no worries.
Quote: DeMangoSorry, raised in Jersey, 12 miles from Manhattan, no need to travel to that cesspool any time soon.
The few times I've been to NYC,
I say to myself the whole time
I'm there, people live in this
hole on purpose and pay thru
the nose to do so. It makes no
sense.
Quote: EvenBob10,000 deaths??? Oh, wait, 10,000
new cases. Big deal, who cares.
10 times more testing will do that
to the stats. We'll let you know
when the sky is falling, no worries.
You can say who cares but guess what?
Florida cares.
They are shutting down bars and beaches.
Oops, guess someone cares.
Guess it means if you don't care too bad. Shutdown happens anyway.
Enjoy that sky falling on you
Quote: darkozYou can say who cares but guess what?
Florida cares.
They are shutting down bars and beaches.
Oops, guess someone cares.
Guess it means if you don't care too bad. Shutdown happens anyway.
Enjoy that sky falling on you
Anyone pushing the "all that counts are death tallies" arguments have some serious logic issues. I can't link my site here, which addresses all of this, but quick summary:
1) Long-term health consequences of getting COVID-19 have not been established and are probably significant. People are suffering permanent lung damage, brain chemistry problems, and other issues.
2) Since degree or duration of protection from re-infection after having had the virus have not been established, any long-term health consequences could possibly be repeated and exacerbated with a re-infection. So someone who suffers 15-25% lung damage the first go-round is at risk for further damage if re-infected.
3) The death tallies will trail the infection rates by four to five weeks. So in a month, the "only thing that matters are deaths" arguers are going to have to invent a new argument. Maybe, "All that counts are infections?" LOL.
So right now, we are losing "just" 600 or 700 a day in terms of lives. Oh pshaw...a mere bagatelle. That's the argument that's being made. It's sick. Can you imagine if you presented these folks back in February with the argument, "We'll lose just 600 a day to ISIS agents hanging out in Texas, California, and Florida infected with anthrax?"
The mental contortions necessary to ignore the clustermuck unfolding are unbelievable. Wait until Tuesday morning, when U.S. citizens are banned from European travel because things are going so well here.
Quote: darkozYou can say who cares but guess what?
Florida cares.
Who cares that FL cares. The rest
of the country is sick of the faux
nonsense. Just let it run it's course,
some will die, most won't. Locking
people in their homes didn't work
because you still have to send some
Typhoid Mary out to get infected
while they shop for groceries and
return home to infect granny and
gramps. NY didn't work because
the moron gov sent Typhoid Mary's
into over 600 nursing homes in the
state.
Quote: EvenBob10,000 deaths??? Oh, wait, 10,000
new cases. Big deal, who cares.
10 times more testing will do that
to the stats. We'll let you know
when the sky is falling, no worries.
Unfortunately for Florida, the most recent spike has nothing to do with increased testing. They didn't double their testing capacity in the last week.
How can the United States be economically more fragile than Italy or Spain? How can Americans be less disciplined than Italians or Spaniards when it comes to following protocols? Why are Americans behaving like snowflakes, whining and complaining over restricted trips to Wal-Mart and the local pub?
Quote: darkozYou can say who cares but guess what?
Florida cares.
They are shutting down bars and beaches.
Oops, guess someone cares.
Guess it means if you don't care too bad. Shutdown happens anyway.
Enjoy that sky falling on you
Opening bars is the least sensible. Closed area, drunk people -- what could go wrong? Maybe an outside bar, but alcohol and good sense often don't go together.
Responsible people should be able go to the beach and be relatively safe. One would think. Responsible being the key. Only a really crowded beach should be a big problem.
Quote: rxwineOpening bars is the least sensible. Closed area, drunk people -- what could go wrong? Maybe an outside bar, but alcohol and good sense often don't go together.
Responsible people should be able go to the beach and be relatively safe. One would think. Responsible being the key. Only a really crowded beach should be a big problem.
Unfortunately people are proving irresponsible.
Florida is closing their beaches for the entire July 4th weekend.
All those businesses screaming they were losing money over there and needed to open early, how is this going to affect their economy?
Quote: lilredroosterhilarious
if it happens to you or yours you won't be laughing.....................................𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝
I would. Statistically things happen, won't change my mind that this is a big over reaction. Again, who cares if a few people die? We have 350 million residents, until 10% die from it I don't care.
every step of the way. Way back
in March I said Foochi-Woochi
was a proven quack, do the
opposite of whatever he says.
2,000,000 deaths. I said maybe
10% of that. No masks? Are
you insane? Closing businesses
and keeping people inside? Big
mistake. The whole thing is an
ongoing fiasco. 'Just saving
one life is worth it!' That's
childish and naive and totally
not true. But Bob But Bob, what
if that was your life. Not even my
very valuable life is worth it.
Show us where back in March you said 10% of 2,000,000.Quote: EvenBob...Way back
in March I said Foochi-Woochi
was a proven quack, do the
opposite of whatever he says.
2,000,000 deaths. I said maybe
10% of that...
Quote: UP84Show us where back in March you said 10% of 2,000,000.
I'm pretty certain he never said that.
If he can link to an old post he can say I am wrong but doubt it
Quote: darkozI'm pretty certain he never said that.
If I cared what you thought
I'd dig it up. It's not possible
for me to care less, though.
Quote: darkozI'm pretty certain he never said that.
If he can link to an old post he can say I am wrong but doubt it
Quote: EvenBobIf I cared what you thought
I'd dig it up. It's not possible
for me to care less, though.
If you really didn't care, you wouldn't have even bothered with any response.
Quote: UP84If you really didn't care, you wouldn't have even bothered with any response.
You don't understand this, do you.
I'm not going to wise you up..
Quote: EvenBobYou don't understand this, do you.
I'm not going to wise you up..
We understand
You didn't say it.
That's why you can't and won't find it
Quote: EvenBobYou don't understand this, do you.
I'm not going to wise you up..
So you think this is just a flu, but back in March you thought 200,000 people would die. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Quote: billryanSo you think this is just a flu, but back in March you thought 200,000 people would die. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Back in March he was saying this was nothing. It'd be totally over by April.
Quote: UP84Back in March he was saying this was nothing. It'd be totally over by April.
April of which year?
Quote: ChumpChangeOther countries and NYC have seen their daily new cases drop by 90%. But this is a pandemic and it won't end.
Soon we will have a therapeutic solution.
Leronlimab is almost finished clinical trials
Quote: ChumpChangeThis coronavirus is one step less than instant zombie makers. I don't think anything will stop it.
Research the science.
Leronlimab should get FDA approval for Covid-19 soon. Talking weeks here, maybe a month
Then HIV.
Hopefully Cancer and NASH liver disease behind that
Quote: EvenBobMommy mommy, the sky is falling,
the sky is falling!! Do I have my
official Dr Foochi super duper
mask on? Should I wear it to
bed? We're all gonna dieeeeee...
lOLOLOL
Personal insult, political statement, trolling -- 5-day suspension.
Quote: billryanEvery person who gets infected extends the pandemic a few weeks.
Yes. That's the simple profound fact those who rebel against the lockdowns and walk around, gather etc facemaskless and unchecked need to get their head around.
