Coronavirus math
Quote: darkozThere are more cases due to reopening
Mayor of my village in Westchester just reported we’ve had zero new cases in last seven days. I’m surprised by that, but it’s great news.
Quote: darkozThere are more cases due to reopening
No way to prove that. In any case it is time to do so. Worth the risk.
Quote: billryanWe are in the middle of a pandemic...I am skipping the gym, skipping my weekly counseling sessions, put off getting my dog groomed...
Very selfless of you. Aren't all those places closed, anyway?
Did you make similar sacrifices during the 2009 pandemic?
Quote: AZDuffmanNo way to prove that. In any case it is time to do so. Worth the risk.
Yes, if it's done properly.
NYS is starting to reopen so the rest of America should be ahead of us.
Let's just hope it's not a cavalier reopening
Then we are in for worse situations
Quote: CalderVery selfless of you. Aren't all those places closed, anyway?
Did you make similar sacrifices during the 2009 pandemic?
Those are all open.
Quote: CalderVery selfless of you. Aren't all those places closed, anyway?
Did you make similar sacrifices during the 2009 pandemic?
apples and oranges. With H1N1 you were contagious for only 1 day before having symptoms. Death rate was 0.02 percent. Antivirals worked well.
Quote: michael99000“They decided that the benefit to THEMSELVES outweighs the risk..interesting “
Did the families that those “Back to normal life “ people go home to also decide that the benefit outweighs the risk ?
Did all the other people who those “back to normal life” people will come into contact with or close proximity to also decide they want the risk ?
You make all your arguments as though only the person who decided to go out and get back to living his normal life is taking a chance. Essential workers are put in greater jeopardy by those with your attitude towards risk/benefit.
You may think it’s worth it to go to a bar crawl or a casino or wherever now , but the cashier at your grocery store doesn’t necessarily want the added risk. They are already taking on enough risk just by dealing with a store full of people who made their best efforts to be careful
Your response is totally reasonable. I don't think I can change your mind. Just to let you know, on a personal level, I'm pretty 'locked down'. But we will have to disagree what is better for society. I think that the economic devastation we are sowing, for now, AND years to come, are a far greater toll than you imagine.
Just a reminder..... my career brought me in contact with thousands of people at the end of their lives, and thousands more that had their lives ruined. Let's just talk about car accidents. Somewhere around 35,000 Americans die every year from car accidents. Maybe double that number have severe enough injuries to change their lives forever. Trust me, many have a fate worse than death. You know there is a device which can limit you turning on a car by requiring you to blow into it and not be drunk?
How many states have decided to save around half of the car accident deaths by requiring it? I think that number is ZERO. The SLIGHTEST inconvenience would save around 15-20,000 lives per year. And countless BILLIONS of dollars in other costs.
That's not how our society works. We DO NOT value a life as valuable as you would want.
Right now there is a guy working in the 7-11 on 'the east side' of Buffalo, that, I can assure you, does not have COVID-19 as his biggest risk to life on a daily basis.
I digress. Opening up in the COVID-19 world does NOT mean kissing everyone, licking countertops, being tossed around in a mosh pit. Each municipality will put reasonable (I hope) measures in place to hopefully decrease, but NOT eliminate, exposure. Just like the supermarkets have been doing the entire time.
Quote: gordonm888I was a high-altitude mountaineer in the 1980's and I knew people who went to the Himalayas to climb 8000m peaks at a time (in the 60s and 70s) when the mortality rate was 1 in 13. Again, for several decades the average death rate while trying to climbing the 8000m peaks in the Himalayas was 1 in 13. Yet, people climbed.
I personally climbed high peaks in Peru and Ecuador knowing full well that the statistical odds of dying were significantly greater than 1 in 1000. And knowing if I became disabled on the mountain, that an alpine rescue team and (perhaps) helicopter pilot would be endangering their lives trying to save me. My actions created a non-zero statistical risk that others might die.
I had several moments when I was in imminent danger of dying and I had to react and behave quickly and correctly.
I had training (at the Mt Rainier Mountaineering School), I bought the right equipment and and got the right experience on lesser mountains and I knew what I was doing. But so too did most of the high-altitude mountaineers who died while climbing.
I have great memories of great experiences and those experiences changed me, probably for the better. I would do it again if I had the strength and vigor.
The point is: people can legitimately have different tolerances toward risk and different ways of trading off benefits vs risk. The people who sit at home in their underwear and fear-monger on social media will scoff at mountaineers and probably think "You idiots!" And I disagree.
Apples and Oranges. I just want to interact with random people safely without a face mask. Not climb mountains.
Quote: CalderVery selfless of you. Aren't all those places closed, anyway?
Did you make similar sacrifices during the 2009 pandemic?
Funny thing, the people complaining about the lockdown always point this out.
Of course the 2009 pandemic was much less deadly, so the lack of action made much more sense.
I'm pretty sure my gf and I caught it in 2009 thanks to my workaholic boss (jerk). We ate Auburn Football tickets as well due to it ($50/ea). But we fought it off in about two days. But it's still in the top 3 of "adult sickness" for me.
No minds will be changed here, that's not what message boards are for. So let me just ask a question. There's roughly an 'open it up' and 'keep it closed' dichotomy. Since I just finished shooting craps in a Deadwood casino, you know where I come down.
For the "Keep it Closed' folks, are you good with all current restrictions? Do you look at anything and think, "Well, that's a bit silly"?
Dad was a migrant in India - he lost his job because of the virus and got injured in a traffic accident and could barely walk - they had no money for transportation
his daughter, 15, came to get him and pedaled him home across India 𝘣𝘺 𝘣𝘪𝘤𝘺𝘤𝘭𝘦 - 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 700 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘴
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/world/asia/india-bicycle-girl-migrants.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
mentioning she had symptoms.
More importantly, she can get that May 1st rent paid up.
Get ready for a bunch of stories just like this. Just insert
waiter, bartender, blackjack dealer, manicurist etc in for hair stylist.
Quote: michael99000Hairstylist in NC with the virus took 91 customers without
mentioning she had symptoms.
More importantly, she can get that May 1st rent paid up.
Get ready for a bunch of stories just like this. Just insert
waiter, bartender, blackjack dealer, manicurist etc in for hair stylist.
If they wanted to more carefully calibrate aid assistance, someone should be looking at how it affects different jobs.
What state allows gyms to open?Quote: billryanThose are all open.
Quote: SanchoPanzaWhat state allows gyms to open?
Arizona.
Again, I ask, how long do we stay closed for and what will that accomplish?Quote: billryanRight now, all you need is to have money for food and medicines. No one is going to evict you or repossess your car. If you cant make a payment on a loan or a car, let the people you owe the money to know. Now is not the time to be worrying about Fair Issac.
If we wait another two or three months to open everything up, will that make a big difference? Seems to me that will just delay the inevitable.
Quote: AxelWolfAgain, I ask, how long do we stay closed for and what will that accomplish?
If we wait another two or three months to open everything up, will that make a big difference? Seems to me that will just delay the inevitable.
Every time you are around other people, you put yourself and everyone you care for at risk. If I told you about a bar with good video poker and great cashback, but every night a random person or two got his ass kicked bad enough to need hospitalization, would you go?
Would you send your wife?
You are looking for a simple solution to a very complex question. I know every day I stay isolated is a day I don't accidentally infect someone. That is more important to me than going to a bar or a movie. Others may disagree.
I'm not sure when we should open up. The White House came out with what seemed to be a fairly balanced approach and then proceeded to do everything they could to negate their own guidelines.
When there is a void of leadership, it falls on people to make their own choices, however misguided they may be.
Quote: AxelWolfAgain, I ask, how long do we stay closed for and what will that accomplish?
If we wait another two or three months to open everything up, will that make a big difference? Seems to me that will just delay the inevitable.
When it comes to the right thing to do , should we listen to doctors and scientists who are experts in this field .. or restaurant and barber shop owners who are late on their rent ?
Quote: michael99000When it comes to the right thing to do , should we listen to doctors and scientists who are experts in this field .. or restaurant and barber shop owners who are late on their rent ?
A problem listening to the experts is they can’t even make up their own minds or come up with consistent advice for anyone to follow. Fauci can’t even make up his own mind on that one, you can listen to the same expert and get two different answers. One day he talks about the damage of opening to early, three days later he says continued lockdown will cause irreparable damage. One week no masks, next week everyone get a mask. And so on. I’m aware they’re always able to come up with whatever they need to rationalize their flip flopping after the fact.
Quote: mcallister3200A problem listening to the experts is they can’t even make up their own minds or come up with consistent advice for anyone to follow. Fauci can’t even make up his own mind on that one, you can listen to the same expert and get two different answers. One day he talks about the damage of opening to early, three days later he says continued lockdown will cause irreparable damage. One week no masks, next week everyone get a mask. And so on. I’m aware they’re always able to come up with whatever they need to rationalize their flip flopping after the fact.
So the alternative to listening to experts is listening to whom? The only irreparable damage is death.
Our house is on fire. Lets put out the fire and then worry about what we will wear to work.
Quote: SanchoPanzaWhat state allows gyms to open?
Texas
Quote: mcallister3200Every single scenario in life isn’t explained by a damn metaphor Bill. Just saying you can listen to them all day long without them telling you anything actionable, that’s where the frustration and people deciding for themselves can come in, pretty much everyone agreed to listen to them two months ago before the story kept changing.
But imagine if these people were on Noah’s Ark. And then Noah’s Ark caught fire. And the leopard wanted to eat the gazelle. But there were only two gazelle on Noah’s Ark.
Quote: mcallister3200A problem listening to the experts is they can’t even make up their own minds or come up with consistent advice for anyone to follow. Fauci can’t even make up his own mind on that one, you can listen to the same expert and get two different answers. One day he talks about the damage of opening to early, three days later he says continued lockdown will cause irreparable damage. One week no masks, next week everyone get a mask. And so on. I’m aware they’re always able to come up with whatever they need to rationalize their flip flopping after the fact.
Fauci said irreparable damage to what? If you're trying to suggest he said irreparable damage to the economy or even people's livelihoods, I call BS. He's not an expert in those areas and he knows that and I don't believe he would have said that.
Quote: michael99000When it comes to the right thing to do , should we listen to doctors and scientists who are experts in this field .. or restaurant and barber shop owners who are late on their rent ?
We should LISTEN to the experts. They can help us understand what the repercussions of different 'open up' decisions will be. But it is up to our elected officials to figure out what the correct thing to do with the information is.
I'll make up a scenario, and let you guys answer what to do?
A. Full open up today. 10,000 more deaths nationwide.
B. Measured approach to open up, like the few weeks at a time plan. Takes a few more months. 9,000 more deaths nationwide.
C. Never open up. 8,000 more deaths nationwide.
I pick A. If you pick B, then change 9,000 to 9,900. Do you still pick B? I pray no one picked C.
Quote: rsactuaryFauci said irreparable damage to what? If you're trying to suggest he said irreparable damage to the economy or even people's livelihoods, I call BS. He's not an expert in those areas and he knows that and I don't believe he would have said that.
I hadn’t heard it before. But, it was the first hit on Google for Fauci. And it’s CNBC reporting it.
I am always bemused that people have debates over empirical information that takes less time to look up than fight about.
ETA: of course read the article and draw your own conclusion about what he meant. It’s always more nuanced than the click bait title.
Quote: SOOPOOWe should LISTEN to the experts. They can help us understand what the repercussions of different 'open up' decisions will be. But it is up to our elected officials to figure out what the correct thing to do with the information is.
I'll make up a scenario, and let you guys answer what to do?
A. Full open up today. 10,000 more deaths nationwide.
B. Measured approach to open up, like the few weeks at a time plan. Takes a few more months. 9,000 more deaths nationwide.
C. Never open up. 8,000 more deaths nationwide.
I pick A. If you pick B, then change 9,000 to 9,900. Do you still pick B? I pray no one picked C.
Quit being logical and reasonable! ;-)
Quote: unJonQuit being logical and reasonable! ;-)
Believe it or not, it sometimes gets me in trouble.
Quote: SOOPOOWe should LISTEN to the experts. They can help us understand what the repercussions of different 'open up' decisions will be. But it is up to our elected officials to figure out what the correct thing to do with the information is.
I'll make up a scenario, and let you guys answer what to do?
A. Full open up today. 10,000 more deaths nationwide.
B. Measured approach to open up, like the few weeks at a time plan. Takes a few more months. 9,000 more deaths nationwide.
C. Never open up. 8,000 more deaths nationwide.
I pick A. If you pick B, then change 9,000 to 9,900. Do you still pick B? I pray no one picked C.
The problem with your options is the reality will be a much much bigger disparity in the numbers.
A hair salon opened in NC. The stylist experiencing symptoms ignored it, helped 91 customers , and then tested positive.
That’s 91 people within a foot of an infected person for probably 30 minutes each. That’s 91 people who then went home to their parents, spouses, children , roommates , etc after their haircut. Thats 91 people who may have essential jobs and went to work and put their coworkers at risk. And all this happens before they know they were exposed and before they felt symptoms.
So we are talking ONE person who was given permission to open early, and exposed a conservative estimate of 300-400 people to the virus.
Now how many other stories will happen exactly like this across the country. How many waiters and batenders and casino dealers and manicurists will make that same mistake ? How many additional people exposed ?
Now try to tell me the difference between opening now or waiting is 9000 dead vs 10,000 dead.
Quote: unJonETA: of course read the article and draw your own conclusion about what he meant. It’s always more nuanced than the click bait title.
maybe you should take your own advice.
Quote: SOOPOOWe should LISTEN to the experts. They can help us understand what the repercussions of different 'open up' decisions will be. But it is up to our elected officials to figure out what the correct thing to do with the information is.
I'll make up a scenario, and let you guys answer what to do?
A. Full open up today. 10,000 more deaths nationwide.
B. Measured approach to open up, like the few weeks at a time plan. Takes a few more months. 9,000 more deaths nationwide.
C. Never open up. 8,000 more deaths nationwide.
I pick A. If you pick B, then change 9,000 to 9,900. Do you still pick B? I pray no one picked C.
Just one question:
If it was a fact that picking A, you would be one of those 10,000 dead
B you had a fifty fifty chance of being one of the 9,000 dead.
And C you were guaranteed not to be one of the 8,000 dead.
Which would you pick
Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC.Quote: rsactuaryFauci said irreparable damage to what? If you're trying to suggest he said irreparable damage to the economy or even people's livelihoods, I call BS. He's not an expert in those areas and he knows that and I don't believe he would have said that.
I did. I read it and that’s why I posted what the edit. A thank you for Googling it for you would be appreciated. But everyone is in their fight or flight political mode. lolQuote: rsactuarymaybe you should take your own advice.
ETA: but it’s the internet so “call BS,” be wrong and then just pretend it didn’t happen. Decide to jump on the next thing that seems to disagree with you.
Quote: SanchoPanzaStay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC.
That’s the sound bite. But Fauci was clear in the article that we need to be very cautious about when and how we open.
Quote: unJonThat’s the sound bite. But Fauci was clear in the article that we need to be very cautious about when and how we open.
The sound bite reported by Fox News was certainly misleading.
Below is a video of the full interview starting at the relevant part.
https://youtu.be/0S-zBs_WaKI?t=598
Quote: unJonThat’s the sound bite.
That's all Sancho Panza reads.
Quote: SanchoPanzaStay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC.
Also, water is wet.
Quote: SanchoPanzaStay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC.
The problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
The post is a response to calling out the OP for "BS." It might be a good idea not to delete that essential passage if there is going to be a complaint.Quote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
The soundbite came directly from CNBC, with no interemediary., if you would bother to take a 30-second look at a search engine before delivering yet another personal insult based on a 100 percent lie..Quote: rsactuaryThat's all Sancho Panza reads.
CNBC sound bite was the same. It’s not a Fox News thing. It’s a news thing.Quote: rxwineThe sound bite reported by Fox News was certainly misleading.
Below is a video of the full interview starting at the relevant part.
https://youtu.be/0S-zBs_WaKI?t=598
Quote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
And actuaries stick together.Quote: rsactuaryAlso, water is wet.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
Is your doctor your economic advisor? I guess it's a question they like to ask Fauci but I've not sure that is in his training. I doubt when he was managing Ebola down in Africa anyone was expecting him to answer questions about the economy there.
Quote: rxwineQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
Is your doctor your economic advisor? I guess it's a question they like to ask Fauci but I've not sure that is in his training. I doubt when he was managing Ebola down in Africa anyone was expecting him to answer questions about the economy there.
So all of the sudden, when Fauci says we need to get to re-opening, well, all of the sudden he is now NOT an expert? At least as far as some folks on here are concerned.
We need to reopen NOW. Too much damage to the economy. This was supposed to be "weeks" when they started it, is now at months. Some people seem to hope we never reopen.
The majority of the country is ready to open. Get it reopened. And with no silly mask requirements.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: rxwineQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
Is your doctor your economic advisor? I guess it's a question they like to ask Fauci but I've not sure that is in his training. I doubt when he was managing Ebola down in Africa anyone was expecting him to answer questions about the economy there.
So all of the sudden, when Fauci says we need to get to re-opening, well, all of the sudden he is now NOT an expert? At least as far as some folks on here are concerned.
We need to reopen NOW. Too much damage to the economy. This was supposed to be "weeks" when they started it, is now at months. Some people seem to hope we never reopen.
The majority of the country is ready to open. Get it reopened. And with no silly mask requirements.
We should all be willing to sacrifice a loved one or two before another Denny’s has to close its doors
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: rxwineQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
Is your doctor your economic advisor? I guess it's a question they like to ask Fauci but I've not sure that is in his training. I doubt when he was managing Ebola down in Africa anyone was expecting him to answer questions about the economy there.
So all of the sudden, when Fauci says we need to get to re-opening, well, all of the sudden he is now NOT an expert? At least as far as some folks on here are concerned.
We need to reopen NOW. Too much damage to the economy. This was supposed to be "weeks" when they started it, is now at months. Some people seem to hope we never reopen.
The majority of the country is ready to open. Get it reopened. And with no silly mask requirements.
I don't recall that Fauci said you couldn't go to work. Someone else does that. And Fauci isn't giving you orders about the economy, just telling people the options.
Maybe people want to consult him about the weather.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: rxwineQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanThe problem is defining ''too long". Is July 1st too long? September 1st? If we lock everything down for two years, we'll be eating rats.
Taking his statement and trying to use it to justify opening today is quite a stretch.
So all of the sudden he is not an expert anymore?
Is your doctor your economic advisor? I guess it's a question they like to ask Fauci but I've not sure that is in his training. I doubt when he was managing Ebola down in Africa anyone was expecting him to answer questions about the economy there.
This is a silly point. No one is an expert in all areas.
So all of the sudden, when Fauci says we need to get to re-opening, well, all of the sudden he is now NOT an expert? At least as far as some folks on here are concerned.
We need to reopen NOW. Too much damage to the economy. This was supposed to be "weeks" when they started it, is now at months. Some people seem to hope we never reopen.
The majority of the country is ready to open. Get it reopened. And with no silly mask requirements.
