Coronavirus math
Quote: rxwineWhich answer would you prefer? Risk getting the virus during chemo when the immune system is weakened, or risk delaying chemo for too long possibly helping the advancement of the cancer. That's not fear-mongering, that's reality.
How about at least letting the patient be able to choose?
Quote: AZDuffmanHow about at least letting the patient be able to choose?
I suspect if a doctor said "come in for your elective surgery, but beware you may catch Coronavirus as we are in a pandemic"
And then the patient contracted the virus while getting the elective surgery
That the person who wanted that freedom would probably be first in line for their malpractice lawsuit
Quote: darkozI suspect if a doctor said "come in for your elective surgery, but beware you may catch Coronavirus as we are in a pandemic"
And then the patient contracted the virus while getting the elective surgery
That the person who wanted that freedom would probably be first in line for their malpractice lawsuit
And they would lose that lawsuit. Reason being the Health Department and State will have approved what cases could and could not be done, and what protocols were necessary to allow the procedure to proceed. If the above were circumvented, then yes, a successful lawsuit would be possible.
All decisions to have or not have surgery involve a risk/benefit ratio analysis. The presence of coronavirus in the hospital, or just in the community, would factor into that decision. For my cancer surgery it would barely factor in. For my hair replacement surgery..... the opposite.
Quote: AZDuffmanHow about at least letting the patient be able to choose?
Always should be the case.
During the beginning of the pandemic the lack of PPE made it unreasonable to use the limited resource for elective cases when there wasn't enough for emergency care. And possibly also using the anesthesia machines as emergency stopgap ventilators for the dying.
Once that is no longer happening or a threat, let the patient choose whether to have his elective surgery in a hospital full of COVID patients.
This makes it sound like it's a 50/50 proposition. Based on the numbers I found by Googling chemotherapy success rates, and the daily coronavirus contraction & overall survival rate statistics in the US, your chances of dying because of lack of cancer treatment are orders of magnitude greater than your chances of contracting & dying from the coronavirus.Quote: rxwineWhich answer would you prefer? Risk getting the virus during chemo when the immune system is weakened, or risk delaying chemo for too long possibly helping the advancement of the cancer. That's not fear-mongering, that's reality.
For me, the choice would be a no-brainer, but like SOOPOO and Duffman said above, the choice should be mine to make, were I in that situation.
Quote: darkoz...That the person who wanted that freedom would probably be first in line for their malpractice lawsuit
The WI legislature granted health care providers blanket immunity from civil liability for 60 days beyond the end of the state of emergency -- all actions and omissions, not just those related to Covid treatment.
Makes the hospital shutdowns all the more perplexing. They could remove the wrong kidney and skate with an "Oops, sorry."
Quote: CalderThe WI legislature granted health care providers blanket immunity from civil liability for 60 days beyond the end of the state of emergency -- all actions and omissions, not just those related to Covid treatment.
Makes the hospital shutdowns all the more perplexing. They could remove the wrong kidney and skate with an "Oops, sorry."
What is perplexing about wanting to keep people from being exposed to a deadly virus? It seems like common sense, regardless of being financially immune on the matter.
Quote: billryanWhat is perplexing about wanting to keep people from being exposed to a deadly virus?...
Because they're in the business of providing healthcare to everyone, not just the 338 hospitalized Covid patients in the state.
Test the patient, test the staff required for a colonscopy, perform procedure, clean the room. Does this really strike someone as an insurmountable task?
Quote: CalderBecause they're in the business of providing healthcare to everyone, not just the 338 hospitalized Covid patients in the state.
Test the patient, test the staff required for a colonscopy, perform procedure, clean the room. Does this really strike someone as an insurmountable task?
And how do you handle the situation where someone tests negative, but is positive? (it happens frequently)
Quote: rsactuaryAnd how do you handle the situation where someone tests negative, but is positive? (it happens frequently)
Deal with it if it is a problem. Nothing is 100% perfect or 100% safe.
The problem are Karens, who want no chance of anything bad happening before they sally forth. They are taking the country down with them.Quote: AZDuffmanDeal with it if it is a problem. Nothing is 100% perfect or 100% safe.
If people are advised to put something off, that is still completely different than saying they won't do it under any circumstances.
Quote: rxwineI don't get how some of these things became elective or even if what is being said is correct. A boob job is elective, breast cancer is not. Seems to me.
If people are advised to put something off, that is still completely different than saying they won't do it under any circumstances.
My wife knows a local nurse who volunteered and served for 3 weeks in NYC, returned from New York and who was then furloughed a couple of weeks later because our regional hospitals have only 14 beds with Covid patients, and because all other health care has dropped to near zero. Everyone can bloviate about what has happened and why - blame the ignorant patients or the cowardly doctors or the incompetent hospital administrators or the clueless governor or CNN announcing that the sky is falling or the %$#@& President. But the health system is not functioning and has lost balance and perspective.
(And, to respond to a previous post: yeah, if I had a choice between battling a covid-19 infection or battling cancer I would make that choice in a nanosecond. )
from the article:
"Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝟐𝟖 𝐭𝐨 𝟓𝟓 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."
and actually the way I'm reading the following from the CDC it could be even more than that:
"Depending on when someone was infected and the timing of the test, the test may not find antibodies in someone with a current COVID-19 infection."
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html
in the news today:
the Wisconsin Supreme Court has struck down the Governor's stay at home order
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/coronavirus-wisconsin-supreme-court.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
from the article:
"While these kinds of experiments are not new, John Nicholls, a clinical professor in pathology at Hong Kong University, said they demonstrate how quickly a virus can spread, especially when hand washing is not performed.
"What the video demonstrated, is that it will spread to surfaces and to people very efficiently," Nicholls told CNN, "and I think it really highlights the need of what people have been saying about hand hygiene to stop the spread of disease."
However, Nicholls said that the situation is "artificial" because so much emphasis is placed on the touching alone.
Kentaro Iwata, an infectious disease specialist at Kobe University, agreed.
"The experiment just described the possibility of the spread by contact, and that is not proof of what happened, so the distinction has to be clearly made between what could happen and what did happen," Iwata told CNN."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/health/japan-black-light-experiment-coronavirus-trnd-wellness/index.html
Quote: BigDadСan you wake me up when all this horror is over?
I guess I'll wake you up on December 2021 as it has been predicted by some people this Coronavirus Horror will be a 2 year fiasco.
Has anyone figured out how to maintain social distancing while getting a lap dance?
Quote: billryanBars in Bisbee re-opened yesterday and, from the number of pickups in the parking lots, appear to be packed.
Has anyone figured out how to maintain social distancing while getting a lap dance?
Idiots who pack bars will get those bars to be closed again very soon like what happened in another Country I believe. A bar just reopened and apprently Patrons were in a packed bar hanging out right next to each other, and worse, right in front of each other so no 6 foot distances. ..The bar was shutdown the very next day after being open just one day. Why can't people just use common sense , allow very limited amounts of people inside and stick to the 6 feet rule?
Quote: rsactuaryAnd how do you handle the situation where someone tests negative, but is positive? (it happens frequently)
You do the procedure -- they tested negative in your example, let's get on with it. No guarantees in life. It may be years before there's a vaccine. How many times do you want to test 325 million people before opening things up?
Also, as my GP always points out, you can die of complications from a colonoscopy (perforate a bowel and you're in trouble).
Finally, it seems to me the country has lost some perspective. This is a nasty, easily transmittable disease, but it is far from a death sentence. If you're old, diabetic, overweight, prone to lung ailments, there's a chance it will kill you; but so will a host of other diseases.
Quote: WishuponacometWhy can't people just use common sense , allow very limited amounts of people inside and stick to the 6 feet rule?
Because they want to be social and enjoy themselves.
Quote: WishuponacometI read this entire thread, (took about 4 hours) and the post that disturbed me the most was the one where "Get infected parties," were being held or being thought of where healthy people purposely dance with Coronavirus infected people in hopes of catching the Coronavirus themselves. What?
Idea is to get a mild case and build immunity and get it when you are otherwise healthy and can fight it. Instead of getting it when you might also have the flu or in a worse way. Stems from chickenpox parties that kids used to have and to a lesser extent when they had a mild smallpox strain in Europe but it would die on the trip to North America so they infected one kid, isolated them, then when they were near well infected a second one from the first.
Quote: WishuponacometI read this entire thread, (took about 4 hours) and the post that disturbed me the most was the one where "Get infected parties," were being held or being thought of where healthy people purposely dance/mingle with Coronavirus infected people in hopes of catching the Coronavirus themselves. What?
I know sounds horrible.
Get infected parties might be more fun if it was Herpes.
No death sentence there either, the standard battle cry of open-uppers.
Funny, no one wants to try those
Quote: billryanBars in Bisbee re-opened yesterday and, from the number of pickups in the parking lots, appear to be packed.
Has anyone figured out how to maintain social distancing while getting a lap dance?
Full body condom.
Quote: WishuponacometIdiots who pack bars will get those bars to be closed again very soon like what happened in another Country I believe. A bar just reopened and apprently Patrons were in a packed bar hanging out right next to each other, so no 6 foot distances. ..The bar was shutdown the very next day after being open just one day. Why can't people just use common sense , allow very limited amounts of people inside and stick to the 6 feet rule?
Who are you to deny them their gawd-given right to infect whomever they might?
The Genie is out of the bottle. My question is how many of the 275 residents that have tested positive , and their friends and family were out and about.
Quote: billryan
Has anyone figured out how to maintain social distancing while getting a lap dance?
sex robot anyone?
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/26/18113019/sex-doll-brothels-legal-sex-work
Quote: AZDuffmanIdea is to get a mild case and build immunity and get it when you are otherwise healthy and can fight it. Instead of getting it when you might also have the flu or in a worse way. Stems from chickenpox parties that kids used to have and to a lesser extent when they had a mild smallpox strain in Europe but it would die on the trip to North America so they infected one kid, isolated them, then when they were near well infected a second one from the first.
It just seems really weird to me. I'd want to stay far away from Coronavirus infected people, not go and mingle/dance with them at "Get infected parties." There are many safe ways to build up immunity. Take Zinc, take Vitamin C, eat healthy, and drink lots of water. Just four ways out of many ways to safely build up a good immune system.
Quote: WishuponacometIt just seems really weird to me. I'd want to stay far away from Coronavirus infected people, not go and mingle/dance with them at "Get infected parties." There are many safe ways to build up immunity. Take Zinc, take Vitamin C, eat healthy, and drink lots of water. Just four ways out of many ways to safely build up a good immune system.
You need to learn the idea that getting sick makes you stronger. Why do kids get sick so much more than adults? Because the kids have not had decades of getting this and that and getting immune. You have to get sick sometimes, Have to get outside in the dirt. Green tea and zinc help, but unless you do them regular they wear off. Immunity is for life.
That which does not kill us makes us stronger.
Quote: AZDuffmanImmunity is for life.
This is flat out wrong. Some antibodies will last a lifetime, others will not. For Covid-19, it is way too new to make any conclusion like this. For other coronaviruses, the preferred method of research (quick google search), shows that protection does decline over time
Quote: AZDuffmanThat which does not kill us makes us stronger.
I think the original quote is "What does not kill me, only makes me sleep until three o'clock the next afternoon".
Quote: AZDuffmanYou need to learn the idea that getting sick makes you stronger. Why do kids get sick so much more than adults? Because the kids have not had decades of getting this and that and getting immune. You have to get sick sometimes, Have to get outside in the dirt. Green tea and zinc help, but unless you do them regular they wear off. Immunity is for life.
That which does not kill us makes us stronger.
So you suggest catching the AIDS virus and Herpes virus so we can be made stronger?
Yet the the Herpes virus from Chicken Pox Lives for 50 or 60 years in my spinal column, making me vulnerable to shingles.Quote: TomGSome antibodies will last a lifetime, others will not. For Covid-19, it is way too new to make any conclusion like this. For other coronaviruses, the preferred method of research (quick google search), shows that protection does decline over time
Quote: darkozSo you suggest catching the AIDS virus and Herpes virus so we can be made stronger?
Are you just trying to be silly?
As to AIDS, go watch "And The Band Played On" and see the reaction to suggestions of much more moderate social distancing than what we have today.
Go catch both if you like.
Quote: WishuponacometI read this entire thread, (took about 4 hours) and the post that disturbed me the most was the one where "Get infected parties," were being held or being thought of where healthy people purposely dance/mingle with Coronavirus infected people in hopes of catching the Coronavirus themselves. What?
It's not without any logic. I wouldn't do it, but I certainly understand someone that would. Before you returned to the forum I relayed the story about my sister and her whole family (Her, hubby, 3 young adult sons) getting the disease, in a pretty mild form, and all recovering. Although not a zero chance of them getting it again, they feel in the free and clear. As opposed to the rest of us afraid of a guy sneezing in the same zip code.
Also, I'm proud of my brother-in-law, as he has been donating plasma.
Herd immunity, the Swedish way. They were hoping for 60% antibody rate for the population. Any news?Quote: SOOPOOIt's not without any logic. I wouldn't do it, but I certainly understand someone that would. Before you returned to the forum I relayed the story about my sister and her whole family (Her, hubby, 3 young adult sons) getting the disease, in a pretty mild form, and all recovering.
So who returned to the forum?
Quote: DeMangoHerd immunity, the Swedish way. They were hoping for 60% antibody rate for the population. Any news?
So who returned to the forum?
I was gone for a couple of days from this website and came back and read this entire thread. Edit. I answered one time and it posted three times.
Quote: DeMangoHerd immunity, the Swedish way. They were hoping for 60% antibody rate for the population. Any news?
So who returned to the forum?
Too early to tell if the herd immunity is working yet
So far they have had ten times the deaths of their neighbors.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2020/05/14/why-swedens-approach-to-coronavirus-may-not-be-what-you--think/amp/
If that is any indication then without social distance measurements here perhaps we would have ten times the death toll as well (800,000)? Instead of 80,000
are there any solid statistics proving those things work?Quote: WishuponacometTake Zinc, take Vitamin C, eat healthy, and drink lots of water. Just four ways out of many ways to safely build up a good immune system.
Quote: AxelWolfare there any solid statistics proving those things work?
Eat your veggies and say your prayers. It worked for Hulk Hogan.
Quote: DeMangoHerd immunity, the Swedish way. They were hoping for 60% antibody rate for the population. Any news?
The news are that so far Sweden has THE worst ratio of recovered vs deceased patients from confirmed cases in THE WORLD (compared by the same metric to the rest of the countries) AFAICT. Almost 1:1.
Edit: scratch that, the UK seems to have the worst ratio by far so far. They too were thinking to build herd immunity by not implementing restrictive measures initially and let everything open in the first weeks. The Netherlands are second, Sweden is third. All of those countries took the C19 pandemic really carefree and were stating herd immunity is the correct approach.
Quote: rawtuffThe news are that so far Sweden has THE worst ratio of recovered vs deceased patients from confirmed cases in THE WORLD (compared by the same metric to the rest of the countries) AFAICT. Almost 1:1.
Edit: scratch that, the UK seems to have the worst ratio by far so far. They too were thinking to build herd immunity by not implementing restrictive measures initially and let everything open in the first weeks. The Netherlands are second, Sweden is third. All of those countries took the C19 pandemic really carefree and were stating herd immunity is the correct approach.
So if Sweden has reached 60% antibody rate, they have been infected, that would mean 30% mortality. Thinking your numbers are off. But that's what this entire pandemic has been all about.
Quote: DeMangoSo if Sweden has reached 60% antibody rate, they have been infected, that would mean 30% mortality. Thinking your numbers are off. But that's what this entire pandemic has been all about.
https://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+coronavirus+deaths&oq=sweden+Coronavirus+dea&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3.9209j0j4&client=ms-android-mpcs-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
So far it's between 10% and 15% mortality rate
Quote: darkozhttps://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+coronavirus+deaths&oq=sweden+Coronavirus+dea&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3.9209j0j4&client=ms-android-mpcs-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
So far it's between 10% and 20% mortality rate
Okay I don't know all the stats but here is the math. (Population of Sweden) (percent infected, about 60%) divided by covid deaths equal mortality rate. Still not thinking that will equal 20%
Vegas didn't have (official) gambling then, but is there something particularly different about any big group gathering like in a church, or sports bar that won't eventually be just the same as it was a year ago. Why would the casinos undergo permanent changes? All these other big gatherings are likely coming back. People will relax, but will it take 2 years, or 3?
If it didn't stay permanent then, why would it today?
By the way, this is not an argument for opening, just an argument about the idea of permanent longer term change.
Quote: DeMangoOkay I don't know all the stats but here is the math. (Population of Sweden) (percent infected, about 60%) divided by covid deaths equal mortality rate. Still not thinking that will equal 20%
I think we are talking different things.
I believe you are stating it's not 20% mortality of the nation's population which I agree.
I am saying of the number of infected it's a 15% mortality rate
Considering this disease is supposed to have a 1-2% mortality rate it's pretty discerning to see Nearly 30,000 infected in the country and nearly 4,000 dead.
Quote: DeMangoSo if Sweden has reached 60% antibody rate, they have been infected, that would mean 30% mortality. Thinking your numbers are off. But that's what this entire pandemic has been all about.
Can't make any sense of this, what 60% antibody rate, where do you get that from? There are no stats I'm aware of or I've quoted regarding rate of infection of Sweden's population so far nor antibody rates. All I'm citing is Sweden has almost 1 dead vs 1 recovered from any two confirmed cases so far. And that's the third worst ratio in the world at the current moment. On average the world has it like 5 recovered vs 1 dead or so so far.
Which seems to imply exposing the population to the virus without restrictions leads to more deaths on average (duh).
The longer we can withstand the social distancing measures and the more restrictive those measures are the more lives we save, but even more importantly, the less severely sick people we will have to handle with for weeks.
The question about the optimal balance seems to be more on the conservative side than anything else. Better take a more harsh economic toll now than try to handle the combined toll later on.
People need to work, eat and carry on with their lives, we all get that and we all suffer from lockdowns. But this situation is more complicated than simple "screw it, this is just like the flu let's have it over with, the herd immunity will come either way."
There are two ways the world has reacted, or in our case overreacted. Sweden decided not to take drastic measures to flatten the curve. We decided to push deaths into the future by flattening the curve to give doctors and hospitals a theoretical way to treat everyone that needed it. It’s gonna take our economy into the toilet, and sets us up for more intrusion into our civil liberties.
Quote: DeMangoSince it was reported about a month ago, not going to look up the medical source, that in two weeks Sweden would have a 60% antibody rate in the population. That means all infections whether asymptomatic , mild symptoms, stay at home a day, hospital, the whole range. So by that measure we ignore recovery rate, a bogus stat, and a truer picture of the mortality rate emerges.
There are two ways the world has reacted, or in our case overreacted. Sweden decided not to take drastic measures to flatten the curve. We decided to push deaths into the future by flattening the curve to give doctors and hospitals a theoretical way to treat everyone that needed it. It’s gonna take our economy into the toilet, and sets us up for more intrusion into our civil liberties.
Here is a more recent article. It describes the swedish methods for Covid-19
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/11/10-takeaways-from-swedens-controversial-approach-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic/amp/
Many of them simply won't work in the US. For example anyone who knows someone has been exposed to Covid-19 has to contact local authorities. Here in the USA people are more apt to hide their loved ones with covid in the basement rather than call authorities
And they instituted tracking systems for all their residents. Yeah, let's see how tracking people on their cell phones will work on the gun-toting protestors who want the economy reopened
