Coronavirus math
Quote: rawtuffNo, 80F doesn't kill it unfortunately. It takes about 15 minutes at at least 56C to kill most of it in lab tests. Direct sunlight/ultraviolet light also deactivates it fairly well. Which might contribute to less open space surfaces spreading during a hot summer/longer daylight, but still leaves the human to human and closed spaces spreading intact.
In lab tests. In the real world it probably does not survive as good as in a pristine lab with just one input. Same as the use of that old drug is working in the real world but in a slapped together study not so much. Even if 80F doesn't kill every trace, the heat is going to weaken it.
Facts must be faced. We will not get this thing exterminated like we did smallpox in this lifetime. Chances must be taken, choices must be made. Most people want to get back to opened up and have their lives back.
Quote: AZDuffmanIn lab tests. In the real world it probably does not survive as good as in a pristine lab with just one input. Same as the use of that old drug is working in the real world but in a slapped together study not so much. Even if 80F doesn't kill every trace, the heat is going to weaken it.
Facts must be faced. We will not get this thing exterminated like we did smallpox in this lifetime. Chances must be taken, choices must be made. Most people want to get back to opened up and have their lives back.
Lifetime? Is that why you are so worried about the economy?
There are multiple drugs being worked on including Leronlimab which I feel the strongest about.
I give a few months before there is a treatment (not a vaccine) where we can comfortably go back to normal
Lockdown for 2 years: 330 million people lose two years of life expectancy+however many people die from the virus anyways:
660,000,000 years lost+12 yrs lost/person who dies from virus despite lockdown
1% of population loses average of 12 years, a rough projection of a “worst case” scenario: 39,600,000 years lost+1.5-2 months per person already forced to not be allowed to live.
660,000,000+ forced life expectancy lost vs 39,600,000. Crazy.
Quote: mcallister3200Life expectancy comparison of lock down for two years vs projected 1% of US dead from virus:
Lockdown for 2 years: 330 million people lose two years of life expectancy+however many people die from the virus anyways:
660,000,000 years lost+12 yrs lost/person who dies from virus despite lockdown
1% of population loses average of 12 years, a rough projection of a “worst case” scenario: 39,600,000 years lost.
660,000,000+ forced life expectancy lost vs 39,600,000. Crazy.
Can I ask for your sources about this estimation (2 years lost of life expectancy of 100% of the population)? I mean, if anything I'd expect life expectancy to even rise due to lockdown (less car crashes incidents, less air pollution, less work related accidents, less crime related accidents and so on; more of other types of accidents and deaths, but it seems to me in a lockdown the causes of unexpected deaths are far less than usual). Not confronting it right away, but genuinely curious.
Seems like there is many, many variables missing in this anyways. Like for one instance the life expectancy lost due to long term lungs damage after getting and surviving C19. Life is so, SO rich of situations, variables and factors, literary the butterfly effect in effect, it's kinda an impossible task to quantify everything in every scenario and come out with a plausible guesstimate in a complex future prognosis like this.
Quote: AZDuffmanMost people want to get back to opened up and have their lives back.
You KNOW this is not true! MOST are more concerned about opening up too soon.
Correct would be to say "A large number of people want to get back to opened up."
Quote: mcallister3200Life expectancy comparison of lock down for two years vs projected 1% of US dead from virus:
Lockdown for 2 years: 330 million people lose two years of life expectancy+however many people die from the virus anyways:
660,000,000 years lost+12 yrs lost/person who dies from virus despite lockdown
1% of population loses average of 12 years, a rough projection of a “worst case” scenario: 39,600,000 years lost+1.5-2 months per person already forced to not be allowed to live.
660,000,000+ forced life expectancy lost vs 39,600,000. Crazy.
I get your point.... but it is not exactly a fair one.... The 'two years of lost life expectancy' is NOT what is happening. If you said something like "Two wasted years", or "Two unproductive years", that would be more accurate. I'm living during this time, of course with more challenges and less enjoyment, but I'm not dead.
Quote: mcallister3200Many people don’t want others to be able to have any reasonable amount of autonomy of their own lives until there’s a vaccine. That’s the (two years)(100% of population) formula, most common projected time for a widely available vaccine is two years. Of course it could be sooner, but there’s no guarantee there ever is an effective vaccine either.
Got it, thanks.
Well I firmly disagree with the notion that life during lockdown isn't life. For what it's worth it may actually drive many people to discover incredible things about themselves and life altogether.
Quote: SOOPOOI get your point.... but it is not exactly a fair one.... The 'two years of lost life expectancy' is NOT what is happening. If you said something like "Two wasted years", or "Two unproductive years", that would be more accurate. I'm living during this time, of course with more challenges and less enjoyment, but I'm not dead.
Well, just me personally, if these last two months were going to be the same as the rest of my life I’d grab the shotgun now.
Quote: darkozLifetime? Is that why you are so worried about the economy?
There are multiple drugs being worked on including Leronlimab which I feel the strongest about.
I give a few months before there is a treatment (not a vaccine) where we can comfortably go back to normal
We have several treatments already. Some people do not want to accept some treatments as valid. But the talk is "we have to wait for a vaccine. I have no intention of taking a vaccine until it gets proven.
Quote: SOOPOOYou KNOW this is not true! MOST are more concerned about opening up too soon.
Correct would be to say "A large number of people want to get back to opened up."
I do not buy that. They might be "concerned" but I still say most want to open up. Most know we cannot keep staying at home.
Quote: mcallister3200Well, just me personally, if these last two months were going to be the same as the rest of my life I’d grab the shotgun now.
Hear Hear.
The last two months have been like house arrest. Same kind as they give some high level mafia leader, without the fun of having did all the mafia stuff.
Quote: AZDuffmanI do not buy that. They might be "concerned" but I still say most want to open up. Most know we cannot keep staying at home.
That's kinda mixed message.
I agree probably EVERYONE wants to reopen.
Who wouldn't?
But most people don't want to reopen if it means this virus is going to spread into a worse projected scenario.
Jobs lost? The same thing that happened to meat packing plants will happen to any job where the virus becomes a hotspot. The place will be forced to close and if it's unessential, then unlike meat plants they won't be allowed to reopen quickly.
When that hits business across the country there goes the economy with or without lockdown
Quote: AZDuffmanWe have several treatments already. Some people do not want to accept some treatments as valid. But the talk is "we have to wait for a vaccine. I have no intention of taking a vaccine until it gets proven.
You aren't much different than I.
Who wants to take an unproven vaccine?
That's precisely why it takes two years. In order to prove efficacy. (There are some people during the studies who will take an unproven vaccine to prove efficacy but the majority of people don't do that)
Quote: darkozThat's kinda mixed message.
I agree probably EVERYONE wants to reopen.
EVERYONE? Not at all. I'd wager about 30% do not. I have seen some who outright think the economy does not matter at all when "lives are at stake." No connection is made.
Quote:When that hits business across the country there goes the economy with or without lockdown
But there is not a ton of reason to think it will. This has not happened elsewhere in the world. It has not happened with past viruses. And every model we have seen so far has been off by several factors.
My fear is that lockdowns become normal and there are calls to do it again when the next overseas virus hits.
Quote: AZDuffmanEVERYONE? Not at all. I'd wager about 30% do not. I have seen some who outright think the economy does not matter at all when "lives are at stake." No connection is made.
But there is not a ton of reason to think it will. This has not happened elsewhere in the world. It has not happened with past viruses. And every model we have seen so far has been off by several factors.
My fear is that lockdowns become normal and there are calls to do it again when the next overseas virus hits.
No one wants the economy closed if there isn't any virus. Not 30% not even 1%. The calls for closed economy are due to the pandemic only. Get rid of the pandemic and everyone will wish to reopen
As for past viruses they weren't as contagious or deadly. A virus is a virus is a virus isn't totally true.
I am quite certain that had AIDS virus been as easily transmissible as Covid-19 with the 99% mortality rate of the 1980's there would have been massive shutdowns.
But we lucked out the transmission type was limited with HIV.
Quote: darkozThe heat theory can be easily examined
All one has to do is check if any hot or temperate zones in the world have any Covid-19 cases. You know places where it never snows because the heat is year round or where it is currently in high summer while we are in winter.
Florida check
Brazil check
Australia check
Oops, guess heat doesn't make Coronavirus go away
Saudi Arabia check.
India check. The numbers could easily explode there.
This isn't like the standard flu. It spreads in all climates. I think it spreads less effectively in warmer climates, but it still spreads enough to cause outbreaks in warm climates with zero intervention.
Quote: AZDuffmanEVERYONE? Not at all. I'd wager about 30% do not. I have seen some who outright think the economy does not matter at all when "lives are at stake." No connection is made.
But there is not a ton of reason to think it will. This has not happened elsewhere in the world. It has not happened with past viruses. And every model we have seen so far has been off by several factors.
My fear is that lockdowns become normal and there are calls to do it again when the next overseas virus hits.
Of course the next one will be overseas, our country could never start a virus outbreak. 🙄
Rather than comparing COVID-19 deaths to something not transmissible, like auto accidents or suicides, it should be compared to someone who knows they have anthrax and gets on a plane with other people (as terrorists have occasionally planned).
Quote: redietzI think everyone's attitude would be different if you were tagged with personal responsibility for transmission. If, for example, the virus could be coded with each infected person's DNA so that precise transmission chains were established, and you had to pay a price if you transmitted it. And a higher price if someone died because of your transmission. A kind of manslaughter charge. Then we would have people adhering to rules and regs.
Sounds like a dystopian movie.
Quote: AZDuffmanSounds like a dystopian movie.
Here's where I'm going with this. Nobody wants auto accidents, but you are held responsible when you cause one. And you are held more responsible when someone dies. Is that dystopian?
If people didn’t want to use wool and eat mutton, the sheep wouldn’t need shepherds.Quote: billryanIf sheep took personal responsibility, they wouldn't need shepherds.
Quote: redietzHere's where I'm going with this. Nobody wants auto accidents, but you are held responsible when you cause one. And you are held more responsible when someone dies. Is that dystopian?
No, you are not responsible. It IS dystopian. Any more detail is going to tread on a political statement so I will end it there.
Is this 1984? Or 2020?
Can we look back with 2020 at 1984?
today she came to work and the Director of Nursing was crying with her head down on the desk - totally stressed out
several nursing aides and a couple of nurses have Covid and can't work
other nursing aides just don't show up - they won't accept the risk
each nursing aide under normal conditions cares for about 8 residents
because of all of the no shows in one unit today just one nursing aide had to care for 24 residents - a whole unit - an impossible task
it's possible if there are more no shows tomorrow one aide will have to care for 48 or more residents
a couple of days ago a Covid patient was found dead on the floor - nobody knew how long he was on the floor
its really unbelievable
I'm begging my wife to quit
Quote: lilredroosterthis is an update on my wife's situation at the nursing home where she works
today she came to work and the Director of Nursing was crying with her head down on the desk - totally stressed out
several nursing aides and a couple of nurses have Covid and can't work
other nursing aides just don't show up - they won't accept the risk
each nursing aide under normal conditions cares for about 8 residents
because of all of the no shows in one unit today just one nursing aide had to care for 24 residents - a whole unit - an impossible task
it's possible if there are more no shows tomorrow one aide will have to care for 48 or more residents
a couple of days ago a Covid patient was found dead on the floor - nobody knew how long he was on the floor
its really unbelievable
I'm begging my wife to quit
What part of the country are you in?
If you don't mind my asking.
Quote: darkozWhat part of the country are you in?
If you don't mind my asking.
Maryland
I think it's highly probable this kind of situation is going on at nursing homes throughout the country and isn't being aggressively reported because there are just too many horror stories and other types of stories and news organizations have to pick and choose what they will investigate and report on
they can't report on a thousand different things - they have limitations - they too are being stretched to their limits
there has been some reporting - somebody blew the whistle in Maryland - but the day after its reported its forgotten
the Governor has a plan - but he can't force people to work there - so what can he really do? - not much
Quote: lilredroosterthis is an update on my wife's situation at the nursing home where she works
today she came to work and the Director of Nursing was crying with her head down on the desk - totally stressed out
several nursing aides and a couple of nurses have Covid and can't work
other nursing aides just don't show up - they won't accept the risk
each nursing aide under normal conditions cares for about 8 residents
because of all of the no shows in one unit today just one nursing aide had to care for 24 residents - a whole unit - an impossible task
it's possible if there are more no shows tomorrow one aide will have to care for 48 or more residents
a couple of days ago a Covid patient was found dead on the floor - nobody knew how long he was on the floor
its really unbelievable
I'm begging my wife to quit
Horrible. I really don't blame the nursing aides. Significantly risk your life for <$15/hr? A nursing aide might be the most underappreciated, underpaid job in the country.
Sounds like many nursing homes are ticking timebombs. :(
Hope you and your wife get through this unscathed.
Quote: tringlomane
Hope you and your wife get through this unscathed.
thanks for the thought
it's funny - the nursing home was doing okay until a couple of weeks ago
until that time I was worried about my investments
now I don't even care about them
Quote: lilredroosterthanks for the thought
it's funny - the nursing home was doing okay until a couple of weeks ago
until that time I was worried about my investments
now I don't even care about them
Precisely
It is what I have been saying myself
A few weeks ago I was concerned about the casinos closing. Then my friend passed away and now the casinos are not that important
Of course I want them to reopen eventually but only when it's safe.
Unfortunately I fear this is going to be a repeated learning process with all the must open now crowd
Frankly, if she called a local TV news station with the story you relayed to to us, it is exactly the kind of "investigative" story they like.
Your wife is in perhaps the worst job on the planet when it comes to risk of getting the virus versus the reward (salary). I do not know your exact relationship with your wife, but I would do everything in my power not to let her go in to work tomorrow. The risks go up significantly when you are understaffed and are rushed to help the next patient.
The general public is just unaware of some of the situations that are going on right now.
Article about how remdesivir is very similar, almost identical, to another drug Gilead made, but was unwilling to market for cats as intended. People have to buy it on the black market from China and it works to cure an incurable viral cat disease which is also a Corona virus. The people pay around $7,000-$10,000 for it.
from the article:
"Debilitating symptoms can last long after a person’s body has gotten rid of the coronavirus, a reality Italians are now confronting.
We have seen many cases in which people take a long, long time to recover,” said Alessandro Venturi, the director of the San Matteo hospital in the Lombardy town of Pavia, adding that the discomfort often seems to last even longer for people with lighter symptoms. “It’s not the sickness that lasts for 60 days, it is the convalescence,” he said. “It’s a very long convalescence.”
Studies also point to kidney, heart, liver and neurological damage, often from secondary infections, and no one knows what the long-term prospects are for those patients.
But even some of the infected who have avoided pneumonia describe a maddeningly persistent and unpredictable illness, with unexpected symptoms. Bones feel broken. The senses dull. Stomachs are constantly upset."
The afflicted find the simplest tasks taxing. "
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-recovery.html
When it comes to stories like this I'm always wondering just how common something like that is. Are they extreme outliers or something fairly common?Quote: lilredroosterthis NYT story chronicles the complications of people who recover
from the article:
"Debilitating symptoms can last long after a person’s body has gotten rid of the coronavirus, a reality Italians are now confronting.
We have seen many cases in which people take a long, long time to recover,” said Alessandro Venturi, the director of the San Matteo hospital in the Lombardy town of Pavia, adding that the discomfort often seems to last even longer for people with lighter symptoms. “It’s not the sickness that lasts for 60 days, it is the convalescence,” he said. “It’s a very long convalescence.”
Studies also point to kidney, heart, liver and neurological damage, often from secondary infections, and no one knows what the long-term prospects are for those patients.
But even some of the infected who have avoided pneumonia describe a maddeningly persistent and unpredictable illness, with unexpected symptoms. Bones feel broken. The senses dull. Stomachs are constantly upset."
The afflicted find the simplest tasks taxing. "
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-recovery.html
Quote: lilredroosterMaryland
I think it's highly probable this kind of situation is going on at nursing homes throughout the country and isn't being aggressively reported because there are just too many horror stories and other types of stories and news organizations have to pick and choose what they will investigate and report on
There was a report I saw this AM that ~ 50% of the fatalities here in NJ have been in nursing homes.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen it comes to stories like this I'm always wondering just how common something like that is. Are they extreme outliers or something fairly common?
I'll give you the happy and the sad. Happy first. My friend, early 70's ex secretary of mine. Bubbly, full of energy, grandmother, always cooking, still worked part time, full of life. Got it. Was near death, ventilator maxed out. Miraculously got better, got off ventilator around 10 days ago. Sent home a few days ago. Mentally fully there. Still has slight hoarse voice. But main complaint is profound weakness. Just now able to stand up. Can shuffle to and from the bathroom but that is it. Sees a positive trajectory but is extremely frustrated with how slow improvement is. When I spoke to her in hospital, she said she was so hungry and wanted a gooey pizza and chicken wings. I asked her what she ate when she got home.... gooey pizza and chicken wings! So I know she will be ok.
Colleagues from hard hit hospitals describe a growing number of patients that will have permanent lung damage, not bad enough to die from with modern medical intervention (ventilator, supplemental oxygen), but bad enough to not have a quality of life many would deem acceptable. Imagine yourself as you are today, and now imagine a month from today being bed ridden on a ventilator. Or now needing dialysis. Or having had a limb or two amputated.
It is not 'fairly common', but not an extreme outlier either.
An emerging theory is that the quality of the air in the vicinity affects how sick you get. People in rural environments don't seem to get as sick as people in cities, and speculation is the cleaner the air, the less-lethal the virus is.
Quote: onenickelmiraclehttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/remdesivir-cats/611341/
Article about how remdesivir is very similar, almost identical, to another drug Gilead made, but was unwilling to market for cats as intended. People have to buy it on the black market from China and it works to cure an incurable viral cat disease which is also a Corona virus. The people pay around $7,000-$10,000 for it.
And thanks to money and greed by Gilead, it's not legally available for cats here although it likely would be approved.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen it comes to stories like this I'm always wondering just how common something like that is. Are they extreme outliers or something fairly common?
Even if you were actually healthy.
Quote:It is estimated that you can lose 1 percent of your lean muscle mass each day you spend in bed. Spending three to five weeks immobilized can lead to a 50 percent decrease in muscle strength,
Quote: rxwineEven if you were actually healthy.
Ugh. I need to move more. Been lazy lazy lazy at home.
Quote: tringlomaneUgh. I need to move more. Been lazy lazy lazy at home.
I've gained at least 5 pounds and surely out of shape now.
Pre-coronavirus expected deaths in NYC period March 11- May 2. 8,000
Actual deaths that period 32,000!!!!!!
COVID deaths (both confirmed and suspected) 19,000
So 5,000 additional NON COVID deaths during that time frame!!!!! And maybe more if some of the 'suspected' COVID deaths were not COVID deaths!
Now comes the guessing..... the hypothesis is that the large number of people delaying treatment for non-COVID conditions was a large factor in the HUGE number of additional deaths. That's at least 5,000 over the usual 8,000.
But anyway, for those who keep trying to downplay the magnitude of this, NYC experienced a FOURFOLD increase in deaths over that time period as to what would be normally expected.
This shows me the disease was here earlier and hit harder, in many varied ways.
IN NYC, it was almost impossible to get tested unless you were very sick and had been to China. Meanwhile, it turns out that thousands of infected people were flying in from Europe under everyone's noses.
Quote: SOOPOO...the hypothesis is that the large number of people delaying treatment for non-COVID conditions was a large factor in the HUGE number of additional deaths...
In Wisconsin the hospitals essentially closed down unless you had Covid with severe enough symptoms to require hospitalization. Doctors and nurses not involved in Covid treatment were furloughed.
Due for a mammogram? Colonoscopy? Ah, you'll probably be fine, though a few months ago the industry regularly beat the drum for those and other procedures because early detection is [or, apparently, was] critical. Hope that isn't macular degeneration -- the sooner the treatment , the better. But the eye guy isn't taking patients just now. That overdue knee replacement? Quit your whining and rub some dirt on it.
Total hospitalized Covid patients statewide: 333.
Reportedly, one third of the patients who are on chemotherapy in the U.S. have stopped getting their chemotherapy because of the pandemic.
The idea that the entire U.S. medical system should only be treating Covid-19 is a bad idea. This is an unintended consequence of the nonstop fear-mongering by certain elements of the media and society.
Quote: gordonm888
Reportedly, one third of the patients who are on chemotherapy in the U.S. have stopped getting their chemotherapy because of the pandemic.
Which answer would you prefer? Risk getting the virus during chemo when the immune system is weakened, or risk delaying chemo for too long possibly helping the advancement of the cancer. That's not fear-mongering, that's reality.
