Coronavirus math
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html#commentsContainer
Quote: billryanNewest models are projecting a 25% rise in American deaths because of states opening prematurely. Who speaks for those peoples rights?
Bill, I'm going to link an old blog entry (last week) regarding the numbers topic. Look, the particular U of W model the White House is referencing is a convenience because it truncates the pandemic to August 4th and it uses low end projections. In fact, out of its range of projections, the one it just gave out with the 25% increase is actually its lowest end. So the new 74k figure is likely going to be just as bogus as the 60K.
Warning: the final sentence of the third paragraph of the entry can be considered subjective and political. The rest of it simply points out that the numbers being touted were nonsensical and obviously so.
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2020/04/innumeracy.html
Quote: billryanNewest models are projecting a 25% rise in American deaths because of states opening prematurely. Who speaks for those peoples rights?
Stay home if you are high risk or just plain afraid. What about the rights of people to make a living? To not lose their business? To not lose their house? To not have to deal with a depression?
Time to act like adults and realize we cannot sit at home all day.
Quote: AZDuffmanStay home if you are high risk or just plain afraid. What about the rights of people to make a living? To not lose their business? To not lose their house? To not have to deal with a depression?
Time to act like adults and realize we cannot sit at home all day.
Yeas. Heaven forbid you are asked to sacrifice something for the common good. The government is willing to pay you to sit at home but that's too much to ask.
Quote: redietzBill, I'm going to link an old blog entry (last week) regarding the numbers topic. Look, the particular U of W model the White House is referencing is a convenience because it truncates the pandemic to August 4th and it uses low end projections. In fact, out of its range of projections, the one it just gave out with the 25% increase is actually its lowest end. So the new 74k figure is likely going to be just as bogus as the 60K.
Warning: the final sentence of the third paragraph of the entry can be considered subjective and political. The rest of it simply points out that the numbers being touted were nonsensical and obviously so.
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2020/04/innumeracy.html
As we are about to hit 60,000 dead Americans this week, it's obvious the numbers are off, but now they expect a 25% increase strictly because of selfish pigs.
Quote: billryanYeas. Heaven forbid you are asked to sacrifice something for the common good. The government is willing to pay you to sit at home but that's too much to ask.
Screw the "common good." Those are weasel words. Go bankrupt for something that may or may not work.
Lives "saved" are balanced by suicides and ODs of people who lose everything they have under lockdown.
Quote: billryanAs we are about to hit 60,000 dead Americans this week, it's obvious the numbers are off, but now they expect a 25% increase strictly because of selfish pigs.
The "selfish pigs" are the people who think we should cause a depression because they are afraid to go outside themselves.
Quote: billryanAs we are about to hit 60,000 dead Americans this week, it's obvious the numbers are off, but now they expect a 25% increase strictly because of selfish pigs.
Selfish pigs killing themselves though.
Quote: unJonSelfish pigs killing themselves though.
Someone has to make the food and power for the people who demand to sit at home.
Quote: jmillsWhat a dumb headline. Like never mind child pornography and murder-for-hire, people are selling blood!
I thought the same thing. Alot of bad stuff happens on the deep web. We should not be surprised illegal drugs and animal parts are being sold on the deep web. I wouldnt be surprised if one can get plutonium or anthrax.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uM3mu09rCfs&t=284s
If not, then why not?
At this point I just don't see the supporting stats for these shut downs.
Florida's beaches opened more than a weak ago, where's the huge spike in new cases that was predicted?
Quote: AZDuffmanStay home if you are high risk or just plain afraid. What about the rights of people to make a living? To not lose their business? To not lose their house? To not have to deal with a depression?
Time to act like adults and realize we cannot sit at home all day.
Ummmmm, you are forgetting that people also take care of the sick, and become sick themselves, and then have to go home to their families. So when you create disease, you should be held responsible for that disease, just like a terrorist who infected himself with anthrax getting on a plane.
Do people really have the right to infect other people? That is what it comes down to.
I didn't see that one in the Constitution, but perhaps I wasn't reading closely enough. Maybe "bearing arms" includes toting lethal viruses. Who knows?
An East Tennessee nurses association has posted asking that people stop sending them food for nurses and instead send it to people who are really needy. This nurses association has also asked that people stop calling the nurses in our region "heroes' because they are just doing their jobs in a situation that is not unusually stressful.
BTW, I live in a county with about 470,000 people, -the 153rd most populous county in America. So, this level of disease is not just a rural phenomenon.
Quote: redietzUmmmmm, you are forgetting that people also take care of the sick, and become sick themselves, and then have to go home to their families. So when you create disease, you should be held responsible for that disease, just like a terrorist who infected himself with anthrax getting on a plane.
Do people really have the right to infect other people? That is what it comes down to.
I didn't see that one in the Constitution, but perhaps I wasn't reading closely enough. Maybe "bearing arms" includes toting lethal viruses. Who knows?
If you do not want to work around sick don't go into health care. It is not about the "right to infect." It is about acting like adults and getting back to work. How many people do you think will die due to the depression you want to cause?
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Quote: billryanNewest models are projecting a 25% rise in American deaths because of states opening prematurely. Who speaks for those peoples rights?
Your elected officials. And in some cases the courts. Take the word prematurely out and your statement may be a fact. At some point we will need to accept more preventable deaths because the purpose of life (in my opinion) is not just to prolong life. The value of letting hundreds of thousands of small businesses open is worth XXXX lives. The value of allowing people to travel internationally is worth XXXX lives. The value of letting my wife get her hair and nails done is worth XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX lives.
We don't lower the speed limit to 50 which would save thousands of lives a year.
We don't 'lockdown' to stop flu spread which would save thousands of lives a year.
Whatever date our officials choose to end a lockdown, there will be more deaths than if they waited another day, week, or month.
I like Cuomo's May 15 date for us New Yorkers. It 'seems' too late to me, as the 'opening' will still be with onerous social distancing rules. But it now seems like a pretty firm date. Each person will decide for themselves what risk they will take, kind of like how life was before COVID-19.
I am really interested to see the devastation the State/Federal unemployment largesse giveaway will cause to hinder the economy opening.
21 year old girl was working part time in a bakery shop. Making maybe $200 a week? Just saw $600 pop into bank account. Not a lot of incentive to go back to work when they call her. "I don't think it is wise for me to go back baking cookies until there is a vaccine. So since it is still unsafe, I will remain unemployed due to COVID-19."
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Quote: Keyser
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Let's hope you can say this in two weeks.
Quote: AZDuffmanHow many people do you think will die due to the depression you want to cause?
I'll have to ask some homeless people why they didn't die immediately once they had nothing.
Quote: KeyserRemember, when the stay at home orders are lifted, you're welcome to stay at home for as long as you'd like.
A simple statement that is true.... sort of.....
First of all, I basically agree with you but Devil's advocate in me says....
If you are a low income worker, say, in an unsafe factory that is now closed, right now the government will support you during your time while at home staying safe. But if because you voluntarily stay home after the lockdown has ended, and thus are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, you will now be jobless and not supported by the government. So there is by definition a coercive component to you risking your health by essentially forcing you to return to work.
Non- Devil's advocate.... If you think your job is not safe get a different job. I worked for decades in a 'bad area', where off shift workers were encouraged to have security escort them to their cars. I chose to accept that risk. There were jobs available in hospitals in nicer areas.
Quote: SOOPOOIf you think your job is not safe get a different job.
Probably not that much of an option in the current environment.
Quote: rxwineProbably not that much of an option in the current environment.
Yeah, occasionally that "privilege" thing rears its ugly head without posters realizing they're being poster boys for it. It's pretty funny, and not uncommon.
Maybe job switching recommendations could be re-posted in about two and half years, and there'd be some merit to the argument. But right now, frontline workers, and the 10 most common occupations in the U.S. -- retail, cashiers, office clerks, food prep and serving, RNs, waiters and waitresses, customer service reps, janitors, laborers, and secretaries, they are pretty much chum to "get the economy" moving.
These folks ARE "the American economy," and they are all at the greatest risk. They all, except for RNs, make less money than the U.S. median. So they are absorbing the worst risk for the least pay.
Quote: redietzYeah, occasionally that "privilege" thing rears its ugly head without posters realizing they're being poster boys for it. It's pretty funny, and not uncommon.
.
Mr. Privilege here. Anesthesiologists are perhaps as 'front line' as you can get. I am lucky that I just retired months before this. But my 'privilege' would not have helped me one bit. My wife has one of the few jobs more at risk. Dentist.
But I get your point. My post was a mish mosh of my feelings and some Devil's advocate in there. Re-read it if you wish.
Quote: billryanQuote: Keyser
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Let's hope you can say this in two weeks.
Evidence so far says he will be able to.
Time to open for business!
Quote: rxwineNever heard this before today, but apparently, not just the initial exposure, but continued exposure to the virus even after you're infected can make you worse during that time. So, even it you get it, you don't want to keep exposing yourself to a source while you're sick.
I think it was either trig or gamerfreak that theorized a month or two ago that we may find that degree of exposure rather than just exposure may have a lot to do with how severely someone who gets it, gets it. Would potentially explain some seemingly healthy doctors in 30’s/40’s being fatalities while otherwise by far mast majority of fatalities and severe cases are those with underlying issues.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanQuote: Keyser
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Let's hope you can say this in two weeks.
Evidence so far says he will be able to.
Time to open for business!
Man jumps off the Empire State Building.
As he passes the 80th floor, his phone rings.
He answers it as he passes the 70th floor.
It's a long time friend who asks " How is it going"
as the man passes the 40th floor.
The man pauses, then hesitates, looking
at the fast approaching ground.
So far, so good, he replies.
Quote: mcallister3200I think it was either trig or gamerfreak that theorized a month or two ago that we may find that degree of exposure rather than just exposure may have a lot to do with how severely someone who gets it, gets it. Would potentially explain some seemingly healthy doctors in 30’s/40’s being fatalities while otherwise by far mast majority of fatalities and severe cases are those with underlying issues.
Virus dose is definitely an issue. Think of this like cancer cells -- always in the body, but needing to glom on and reach a certain threshold to be an issue. This is why church services have been such an problem -- enclosed environments, lots of spewing while singing and Amen-ing, and I did read that some individuals can projectile a hundred times what other infected individuals projectile. So church services have huge potential virus loads.
Frontliners have to deal with total virus load, not just simple exposure.
We are in month two of a two-year deal. Buckle up.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanQuote: Keyser
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Let's hope you can say this in two weeks.
Evidence so far says he will be able to.
Time to open for business!
I would ask, "At what caseload per day would you say 'Close for business?'" Or at what national death toll would you say, "We did the wrong thing by opening?"
If you don't have answers to those questions, why don't you?
Here, I'll throw my opinion out there. I'm pretty cold blooded, but evidently not as cold blooded as most. I would have kept everything open had I known 10,000 would die. That's twice the population of the little town I grew up in, so that gives me a visceral sense of the number. More than that, I shut things down and institute lockdowns and contact tracing. See? It's not hard to admit cold bloodedness.
Now we are 60,000. So this is coronavirus math. Assuming most re-open, at what additional number do you shut things back down? People don't want to think in these terms, but this is coronavirus math, and it's reality.
Quote: redietzQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryanQuote: Keyser
Florida's beaches reopened. Where are all the new cases that were predicted to spread like wild fire?
Let's hope you can say this in two weeks.
Evidence so far says he will be able to.
Time to open for business!
I would ask, "At what caseload per day would you say 'Close for business?'" Or at what national death toll would you say, "We did the wrong thing by opening?"
If you don't have answers to those questions, why don't you?
Here, I'll throw my opinion out there. I'm pretty cold blooded, but evidently not as cold blooded as most. I would have kept everything open had I known 10,000 would die. That's twice the population of the little town I grew up in, so that gives me a visceral sense of the number. More than that, I shut things down and institute lockdowns and contact tracing. See? It's not hard to admit cold bloodedness.
Now we are 60,000. So this is coronavirus math. Assuming most re-open, at what additional number do you shut things back down? People don't want to think in these terms, but this is coronavirus math, and it's reality.
So you think people shouldn’t drive, right? Way more than 60k deaths from that.
And we should outlaw smoking for sure? I mean it just follows from the precepts you laid out.
This is a site dedicated to math and logic. Posts in this thread tend to be the opposite.
For instance, in my experience those with “privilege” are the most in favor of continuing lockdown. They can afford it. And this living pay check to pay check that I know are the most desperate for things to reopen.
SOOPOO at least comes across as honest and consistent.
You have the right to stay home if you'd like.
Why are some people so quick to give up their civil rights?
Quote: unJonQuote: redietz
I would ask, "At what caseload per day would you say 'Close for business?'" Or at what national death toll would you say, "We did the wrong thing by opening?"
If you don't have answers to those questions, why don't you?
Here, I'll throw my opinion out there. I'm pretty cold blooded, but evidently not as cold blooded as most. I would have kept everything open had I known 10,000 would die. That's twice the population of the little town I grew up in, so that gives me a visceral sense of the number. More than that, I shut things down and institute lockdowns and contact tracing. See? It's not hard to admit cold bloodedness.
Now we are 60,000. So this is coronavirus math. Assuming most re-open, at what additional number do you shut things back down? People don't want to think in these terms, but this is coronavirus math, and it's reality.
So you think people shouldn’t drive, right? Way more than 60k deaths from that.
And we should outlaw smoking for sure? I mean it just follows from the precepts you laid out.
This is a site dedicated to math and logic. Posts in this thread tend to be the opposite.
For instance, in my experience those with “privilege” are the most in favor of continuing lockdown. They can afford it. And this living pay check to pay check that I know are the most desperate for things to reopen.
SOOPOO at least comes across as honest and consistent.
In the US, which redietz was talking about, you'd be wrong on auto fatality comparison. We've never had 60k auto fatality deaths over an entire calendar year in the US.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
We may have overreacted over this, but this is definitely deadlier than driving in the US. Especially if people are told to not change their habits at all. Honestly, I think we reacted too slowly more than anything.
The state is in the middle of the pack in regards to deaths per capita so I tend to think this is representative of the situation in most of the US excluding the densely populated northeast.
The goalposts/narrative has changed from flattening the curve to minimizing deaths at the least. In most areas there is no projections that healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by gradually reopening.
Quote: tringlomaneIn the US, which redietz was talking about, you'd be wrong on auto fatality comparison. We've never had 60k auto fatality deaths over an entire calendar year in the US.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
We may have overreacted over this, but this is definitely deadlier than driving in the US. Especially if people are told to not change their habits at all. Honestly, I think we reacted too slowly more than anything.
Oh wow. Thanks for pointing out the data. That part of my post withdrawn.
Quote: rxwineI'm really not sure why, but maybe it allows the virus to work from different areas of the body at the same time.
Well viruses start with one cell then affect cells around. So if is attacking say your chest and you get it in a cut in your arm then two different areas. That would make sense.
Quote: unJon
For instance, in my experience those with “privilege” are the most in favor of continuing lockdown. They can afford it. And this living pay check to pay check that I know are the most desperate for things to reopen.
SOOPOO at least comes across as honest and consistent.
Thank flipping you! So true.
It is like payday loan stores. The people who want to ban them do not know what it is to need $100 until payday. They trot out "for the common good!" Meanwhile they live their comfortable life.
People have to die, that's life. People in favor of lockdown just look at the one dimension. They miss the side effects.
Speaking of, I wonder if we have seen increased OD deaths and accidents the past 52 days?
I wonder what they'll reveal? (That was a rhetorical question)
Quote: unJonOh wow. Thanks for pointing out the data. That part of my post withdrawn.
UnJon.... you were incorrect on number of deaths. But of this I can assure you, if you add the misery of many car crash survivors, whose lives are ruined forever, the toll is far worse than the number of deaths. We are so good at keeping people alive who have permanent brain damage, amputations, severe burns, etc...
I am aware of these statistics, and still choose to drive at 70 now and again. We all make decisions that on a purely "what should I do to stay alive longer" basis make no sense.
Someone on a local TV newscast said..... ALL BUSINESS IS ESSENTIAL! I like that thought.
Quote: AZDuffmanThank flipping you! So true.
It is like payday loan stores. The people who want to ban them do not know what it is to need $100 until payday. They trot out "for the common good!" Meanwhile they live their comfortable life.
People have to die, that's life. People in favor of lockdown just look at the one dimension. They miss the side effects.
Speaking of, I wonder if we have seen increased OD deaths and accidents the past 52 days?
No link, but pretty sure OD deaths would be up, but MVA deaths down. Suicide up a blip? But inner city crime type deaths down.
At least global warming is on a pause... (intentionally added to irritate AZ!)
Quote: SOOPOONo link, but pretty sure OD deaths would be up, but MVA deaths down. Suicide up a blip? But inner city crime type deaths down.
At least global warming is on a pause... (intentionally added to irritate AZ!)
It would be interesting to correlate OD deaths to unemployment and the economy. I do remember a dealing gig in Johntown, home of the Hansen Brothers for those of you in Rio Linda, and we saw a huge billboard for the clinic to get you off heroin. Not methadone, the other thing they use. You don't see those in booming areas.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt would be interesting to correlate OD deaths to unemployment and the economy. I do remember a dealing gig in Johntown, home of the Hansen Brothers for those of you in Rio Linda, and we saw a huge billboard for the clinic to get you off heroin. Not methadone, the other thing they use. You don't see those in booming areas.
You are quite sheltered if that’s the only time you’ve seen a billboard for rehab.
But also, people just can't keep going out in the same way as before, there MUST be precautions to be taken and people have to follow them which is really difficult in zones with high population. It's about finding a middle point and adapt, especially adapt to these circumstances.
It's about "freedom" or "Civil rights" those are just words to make some noise. It's about keeping an entire population secure and alive as much as possible
We're living a situation that have never seen before, we can't just pretend to act like we've been always doing.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7tlluo?fbclid=IwAR3MxydAd8acz5LsuWn3T38Q2Wl1SNHwRJA4k4NX18_lUlElZO0I0mcSJyE
