Coronavirus math
Quote: KeyserThere are drive thrus for it here in the Midwest, and in just about every major city. Several new ones are opening every day. It's $40 for the live virus test with swab and it's $20 for the antibody blood tests. As far as I've heard it's in just about every major city. I Meaning there are plenty of tests around. unless you're in one of the hospitals that did a poor job of planning, that has maybe run out of swabs. If so, just go down the street to one of the drive thru clinics. I plan on going on Monday.
I'm sorry but I must completely disagree with you on the response on the virus too. I think that it's been absolutely fabulous considering how few people have died. Everyone that needed a respirator got one. We've had plenty of beds, etc... At this point I actually feel that we over reacted considering the death rate is so much lower than any of the absurd models predicted. Right now we're set to come in under the seasonal flu numbers. Now we really should turn our concerns back to the elective surgeries such as emergency heart bypass surgeries, breast cancer, bone marrow transplants, etc....
Even though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Quote: darkozEven though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Insult
Quote: darkozEven though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Insult
Quote: darkozEven though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Whether it's an insult comes down to if you can name another western country that has done and will do appreciably worse than the U.S. If you can't, then saying the U.S. has done a "fabulous job" must be based on a comparison with how things are going in Alpha Centauri.
That's doesn't require Disneyland as a whole, but it may require the Star Wars subsection.
"Fabulous," without a data comparison to other countries, is a word from out of the blue. I may think Raquel Welch was an ugly troll, but that doesn't make me based in any meaningful reality.
Quote: redietzWhether it's an insult comes down to if you can name another western country that has done and will do appreciably worse than the U.S. If you can't, then saying the U.S. has done a "fabulous job" must be based on a comparison with how things are going in Alpha Centauri.
That's doesn't require Disneyland as a whole, but it may require the Star Wars subsection.
"Fabulous," without a data comparison to other countries, is a word from out of the blue. I may think Raquel Welch was an ugly troll, but that doesn't make me based in any meaningful reality.
Whooosh, over Red's head, as the insult, gets ignored.
Quote: darkozEven though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Insult.
This discussion is becoming angry and nasty. In the absence of a moderator I would like to ask Darkoz (and billryan to a lesser extent) to tone it down and please show a little bit of respect for people who you disagree with.
This coronavirus debate is an issue that reasonable people can disagree about at this early stage of the pandemic. I listen to every major cable news channel and IMO they are all selectively reporting information. And I can tell which channel(s) most of you are listening to (perhaps exclusively?) I think you can all learn from each other -or at least gain a broader perspective about the views of your political opponents - if you keep an open mind. But this discussion is turning into hectoring and nastiness.
One thing in particular: a projection about the future may be wrong, but it almost never qualifies as "a lie." Please don't refer to past statements about the future course of the pandemic as "lies."
The (only) nice thing about the pandemic is that, in a few months, most of the issues we are currently debating will be settled and it will be revealed who was right and who was wrong.
Quote: Keyser
there are plenty of tests around. unless you're in one of the hospitals that did a poor job of planning, that has maybe run out of swabs. If so, just go down the street to one of the drive thru clinics.
{Testing is not available everywhere and there is a huge shortage}
Quote: Keyser
I think that it's been absolutely fabulous considering how few people have died.
[37,000 in one month and still rising every day]
Quote: Keyser
Everyone that needed a respirator got one.
{Hospitals were short of ventilators and many people had to share ventilators}
Quote: KeyserWe've had plenty of beds, etc...
{Simply not true}
What the heck were they thinking not stocking up on swabs for a test that hadn't been invented yet.
When I was at Camp Smith in the early 80s, Special Services sent us two boxes of vcr tapes and a Sony BetaMax. Some things never change.
Quote: gordonm888Insult.
This discussion is becoming angry and nasty. In the absence of a moderator I would like to ask Darkoz (and billryan to a lesser extent) to tone it down and please show a little bit of respect for people who you disagree with.
This coronavirus debate is an issue that reasonable people can disagree about at this early stage of the pandemic. I listen to every major cable news channel and IMO they are all selectively reporting information. And I can tell which channel(s) most of you are listening to (perhaps exclusively?) I think you can all learn from each other -or at least gain a broader perspective about the views of your political opponents - if you keep an open mind. But this discussion is turning into hectoring and nastiness.
One thing in particular: a projection about the future may be wrong, but it almost never qualifies as "a lie." Please don't refer to past statements about the future course of the pandemic as "lies."
The (only) nice thing about the pandemic is that, in a few months, most of the issues we are currently debating will be settled and it will be revealed who was right and who was wrong.
The post in question was not a projection about the future but rather... Fantasyland discussion about reality now.
I highlighted in my post above his comments that are from Fantasyland.
If it's now an insult to point out when someone says an untruth then there can no longer be discussion about anything demonstrably untrue on this site. Lies can start getting spewed on every post
Quote: billryanStupid hospitals.
What the heck were they thinking not stocking up on swabs for a test that hadn't been invented yet.
When I was at Camp Smith in the early 80s, Special Services sent us two boxes of vcr tapes and a Sony BetaMax. Some things never change.
No, shame on them for not having enough swabs and masks. That's just pathetic. But I didn't say that it was their fault for not having the tests.
Tests are everywhere now. Virtually every city has at least one drive through set up.
Currently we have plenty of hospital beds and respirators. As a matter of fact we're removing some of the triage tents because it's obvious that they're just not going to be needed. Many hospitals are largely empty. Meanwhile people are dying from other preventable diseases that need immediate attention in these hospitals.
Quote: GDBONESTo me at least part of the problem with controlling the spread of the virus in New York and in the rest of the country is that we missed the whole beginning of the outbreak. Everyone felt reassured that there were very few cases because there was no testing available. On March 1st, New York reported only one case of coronavirus, but looking at the 114 of new fatalities from the virus reported on 3/24, the actual number of people infected in New York on March 1st was actually quite a bit higher.
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?
Thanks
The results of the first sero survey, coronavirus antibody have been posted by Stanford. They showed that about 3.3% of the population has already been infected in the United States. That would be 11 million confirmed cases so far in the United States. I guess I was close to the truth after all.
Quote: KeyserNo, shame on them for not having enough swabs and masks. That's just pathetic. But I didn't say that it was their fault for not having the tests.
Tests are everywhere now. Virtually every city has at least one drive through set up.
Currently we have plenty of hospital beds and respirators. As a matter of fact we're removing some of the triage tents because it's obvious that they're just not going to be needed. Many hospitals are largely empty. Meanwhile people are dying from other preventable diseases that need immediate attention in these hospitals.
Perhaps you can define "we"
If you mean your neighborhood that's possible. There are hotspots and you may not be in one.
If you mean "we" as a nation, then this has been a national disaster with medical shortages and a death toll of tens of thousands
I am trying to see if you and I can have some meeting of the minds here
Quote: darkozPerhaps you can define "we"
If you mean your neighborhood that's possible. There are hotspots and you may not be in one.
If you mean "we" as a nation, then this has been a national disaster with medical shortages and a death toll of tens of thousands
I am trying to see if you and I can have some meeting of the minds here
Perhaps you can tell me one location in the US that doesn't have enough hospital beds or ventilators.
Quote: KeyserPerhaps you can tell me one location in the US that doesn't have enough hospital beds or respirators?
NY
And I assume you mean ventilators. You keep saying respirators. There is a difference
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/health/coronavirus-ventilator-sharing.html
Quote: GDBONESThe results of the first sero survey, coronavirus antibody have been posted by Stanford. They showed that about 3.3% of the population has already been infected in the United States. That would be 11 million confirmed cases so far in the United States. I guess I was close to the truth after all.
I am hoping that is true. That would make the fatality rate substantially less than 1%.
Quote: darkozNY
And I assume you mean ventilators. You keep saying respirators. There is a difference
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/health/coronavirus-ventilator-sharing.html
The date of your article is 3-26-20. Again, you're exaggerating. Furthermore not only are there enough ventilators, many are now being sent back to storage.
You need to stop trying to spread panic and false information.
Quote: SOOPOOI am hoping that is true. That would make the fatality rate substantially less than 1%.
That means about 10 or 11 million infections. Which I still think might be too low. Considering they say that this virus is much more infectious than the 2009 virus that supposedly infected 61 million, that seems at least a little more realistic.
37,727/10.5 =.0036
Quote: KeyserNo, shame on them for not having enough swabs and masks. That's just pathetic. But I didn't say that it was their fault for not having the tests.
Tests are everywhere now. Virtually every city has at least one drive through set up.
Currently we have plenty of hospital beds and respirators. As a matter of fact we're removing some of the triage tents because it's obvious that they're just not going to be needed. Many hospitals are largely empty. Meanwhile people are dying from other preventable diseases that need immediate attention in these hospitals.
The swabs are specific to the test, but I'm pretty sure you already knew that. I'm not sure why you seem to get a kick out of constantly posting false information, is it a hobby or perhaps a job?
Quote: DeMangoCouple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.
DeMango wins!
Great prediction.
Quote: KeyserThe date of your article is 3-26-20. Again, you're exaggerating. Furthermore not only are there enough ventilators, many are now being sent back to storage.
You need to stop trying to spread panic and false information.
So at least you finally admit the truth that there was a shortage of ventilators.
Thanks to social distancing for the situation getting better.
37,000 dead in a month. No, let's not panic
Quote: unJonCuomo announced NY now past apex (assuming social distancing continues as planned, etc).
Yes, celebration time.
At it's Apex and on the upward climb this place was a disaster zone
Quote: KeyserDeMango wins!
Great prediction.
I wish he was correct. But my colleagues who are actually taking care of these people tell me how much harder it is to treat them successfully. As I've said repeatedly, the final result will be substantially greater death rate than the flu, but no where near as high as the 2 or 3 or 4% it looks like now. I'm betting between .3 and .7%.
And remember, it seems to be far more contagious as well........
Quote: unJonCuomo announced NY now past apex (assuming social distancing continues as planned, etc).
Just to be clear. New York City is past the apex. Maybe even New York State. But certainly not upstate New York, of which Buffalo is the largest city.
Everyone that needed a ventilator got one. Nobody died because we ran out of them. Again, you're just exaggerating.
Quote: DarkozSo at least you finally admit the truth that there was a shortage of ventilators.
Darkoz,
Everyone that needed a ventilator got one. Nobody died because we ran out of them. Again, you're just exaggerating.
Quote: KeyserThat means about 10 or 11 million infections. Which I still think might be too low. Considering they say that this virus is much more infectious than the 2009 virus that supposedly infected 61 million, that seems at least a little more realistic.
37,727/10.5 =.0036
That's very good news if that 10M-11M estimate is correct. Still though, that's about three times higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu. And far more contagious.
Quote: KeyserDeMango wins!
Great prediction.
Isn't the death toll in US already at the 40k mark? It will most definitely surpass that number, probably at least several times over.
Quote: KeyserDarkoz,
Everyone that needed a ventilator got one. Nobody died because we ran out of them. Again, you're just exaggerating.
How about we do this
You post a link that substantiates your claim
I will do the same.
Here is my link that says you are wrong
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kadiagoba/ventilator-shortage-new-york-hospitals-coronavirus
Quote: rawtuffIsn't the death toll in US already at the 40k mark? It will most definitely surpass that number, probably at least several times over.
That's ludicrous. The last prediction that I read yesterday was revised downward, yet again to only 60k. up to I think Aug 1.
Quote: KeyserThat's ludicrous. The last prediction that I read yesterday was revised downward, yet again to only 60k. up to I think Aug 1.
This is great news!
The virus is retiring in early August -- probably before it's 401K takes too big a hit. Sounds like party time. I figured there was a sound reason death totals were being limited to August 4th, but a virus retirement, that takes the cake. We should probably get a cake, for us and the virus.
So COVID-19 is taking the watch and the plaque and settling down in St. Augustine? I knew all those tales of second and third and fourth waves were exaggerated.
I wonder why the feds made me claim all of 2019's income on my taxes. You'd think I'd get the same August 4th cutoff as the virus. Oh well, win some lose some. Thank God it's retiring.
It'll knock those mortality figures down a few more notches, we get some rest, and the virus gets some rest. Everybody wins!
Opening up America on July 4th! Who could argue with that? We could have fireworks and candy apples.
Who's with me?
At that same rate it won't be long before we hit 60,000.
We don't seem to be at the Apex yet even
And now another voice of sanity, twice in one week no less, from Bill Maher!
Quote: darkozThe post in question was not a projection about the future but rather... Fantasyland discussion about reality now
Mycomment about wrong projections vs. lies was a more general comment and was not germane to your specific post.
Quote: darkozI highlighted in my post above his comments that are from Fantasyland.
If it's now an insult to point out when someone says an untruth then there can no longer be discussion about anything demonstrably untrue on this site. Lies can start getting spewed on every post
You are allowed to challenge anyone, say that you disagree with a post, say that you think their posts contain wrong information. It when you make comments insulting to the person that you run afoul of the rules.
You should be able to disagree without saying that the poster is in fantasyland -especially when that is pretty much to entirety of your comment.
Quote: DeMangohttps://youtu.be/UcvIQJ-QurQ
And now another voice of sanity, twice in one week no less, from Bill Maher!
What's new? Someone doesn't like the way some news is reported.
Quote: darkozEven though Disneyworld is closed somehow Fantasyland is still open
Personal insult. Per the Martingale policy, 14 days.
Quote: DeMangohttps://youtu.be/UcvIQJ-QurQ
And now another voice of sanity, twice in one week no less, from Bill Maher!
Political statement, per the Martingale policy, 7 days.
Quote: SOOPOOI am hoping that is true. That would make the fatality rate substantially less than 1%.
We also missed a lot deaths, but .75% would be a good estimate. That would mean over 80,000 people have died in the United States so far.
Quote: GDBONESWe also missed a lot deaths, but .75% would be a good estimate. That would mean over 80,000 people have died in the United States so far.
Doesn’t it mean 80,000 will ultimately does from those that have it so far? Plenty of those estimated to have it, haven’t recovered.
Quote: rawtuffIsn't the death toll in US already at the 40k mark? It will most definitely surpass that number, probably at least several times over.
Please stick to alternative facts. Reality has no place here.
Quote: DeMangoWhooosh, over Red's head, as the insult, gets ignored.
Ummmmmm, first of all....
Since "Wizard" is handing out suspensions, how is the above not an insult?
Insult!
Insult!
Insult!
I think I understood perfectly well what darkoz was saying here. Now if I did, and DeMango makes this comment, he's lying and insulting me. And if I didn't, he's just insulting me.
I mean, isn't being told you're dim-witted an insult? Or am I too dim-witted to appreciate that being told I'm dim-witted (as in "Whoosh") shouldn't be an insult?
Darkoz was using the Fantasyland analogy to point out that calling the COVID-19 response "fabulous" was comparing the U.S. response to no other country on earth, ergo comparing it to Fantasyland (which one could posit may be a country in Alpha Centauri as well as Disneyland).
See, this is what I mean about this place. Not only are the suspensions arbitrary, definitions are arbitrary. Now, dictators (and I say that in a warm and fuzzy way) being arbitrary I have zero problem with; it's what they do. But being trained as a journalist, I have issues with the sliding scale for definitions such as what is "an insult." Insult has a definition, after all, that is pretty much independent of any single human being.
Quote: gordonm888Actually, Fantasyland was a theme park in NJ for kiddies, just across the river from Manhattan. Rides decorated as flying elephants -that kind of stuff. Since Darkoz lives in NJ, there is reason to conjecture that Darkoz may have known about that.
You are mistaking Fantasyland for Palisades Amusement Park. As a child, my father took me there frequently. Just across the George Washington Bridge.
Fantasyland is closer to Atlantic City.
