Genie's bottle puzzle
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9 members have voted
February 10th, 2019 at 6:25:02 AM
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A stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You believe in hell and expect to not otherwise go there. What is the least amount you should pay?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 6:40:59 AM
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A few questions:
1) Can you sell it for negative amounts (ie, pay someone to take it)?
2) Can you make compound wishes (ie, I wish I had A and B)?
3) Is there such a thing as an uncountable infinite amount of U.S. currency in this hypothetical world of real genies and hell?
4) Can the same person own the genie more than once?
This reminds me of that Twighlight Zone episode where a man brings a box with a red button and tells the couple that if they push the red button someone they don’t know will be killed and the couple will receive a million dollars.
1) Can you sell it for negative amounts (ie, pay someone to take it)?
2) Can you make compound wishes (ie, I wish I had A and B)?
3) Is there such a thing as an uncountable infinite amount of U.S. currency in this hypothetical world of real genies and hell?
4) Can the same person own the genie more than once?
This reminds me of that Twighlight Zone episode where a man brings a box with a red button and tells the couple that if they push the red button someone they don’t know will be killed and the couple will receive a million dollars.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 6:46:37 AM
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I would pay a penny.
I would pre-arrange a buyer, take him to the sale, take his money and add my penny and buy the bottle, make my wish and hand over the bottle to my buyer.
I would pre-arrange a buyer, take him to the sale, take his money and add my penny and buy the bottle, make my wish and hand over the bottle to my buyer.
February 10th, 2019 at 7:18:29 AM
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Quote: Dalex64I would pay a penny.
I would pre-arrange a buyer, take him to the sale, take his money and add my penny and buy the bottle, make my wish and hand over the bottle to my buyer.
This answer violates the rule that you must sell the genie to a logician.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 7:39:37 AM
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Quote: unJonThis answer violates the rule that you must sell the genie to a logician.
How so?
No reason that he can't have a pre-arranged buyer and be adding his own penny, so on and so forth, all the way down to the last penny, when the last logician finds he can't sell it at all and would go to hell and therefore wouldn't buy it, at which point the whole purchasing chain collapses.
You could also say that only a fool will get involved, or purchase without a pre-arranged buyer, and if logicians are not fools, then no logicians would get involved at all.
Last edited by: Dalex64 on Feb 10, 2019
February 10th, 2019 at 7:45:58 AM
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If the logician you sell it to would also have to sell it to a logician for less than what he paid, and that next logician would have to...etc. forever, then I reckon you should pay nothing for it, because a logician wouldn’t take a bad deal.
Last logician “might” buy it for $0.01. But he won’t, because he can’t sell it for $0.00.
The logician before him may try to buy it for $0.02, but he won’t, because he knows he won’t have a buyer at $0.01.
The logician before him wouldn’t buy it for $0.03, because he knows the theoretical buyer at $0.02 won’t buy because no one will buy at $0.01.
And so on.
So the answer is you just shouldn’t buy it.
Last logician “might” buy it for $0.01. But he won’t, because he can’t sell it for $0.00.
The logician before him may try to buy it for $0.02, but he won’t, because he knows he won’t have a buyer at $0.01.
The logician before him wouldn’t buy it for $0.03, because he knows the theoretical buyer at $0.02 won’t buy because no one will buy at $0.01.
And so on.
So the answer is you just shouldn’t buy it.
February 10th, 2019 at 7:46:38 AM
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Exactly, Dalex. House of cards falls down. Though Wizard would propbably be grateful if you edited your second post to put it under a spoiler code.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 8:18:04 AM
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Here's my answer:
You can't really put a price on what to pay for it, as long as your wish is:
"I wish that all purchasers of the bottle spend eternity in heaven."
I then explain this fact to the potential buyers, and ask for one penny less than I paid for it, in order to maximize the number of buyers.
If the last one - the one that paid a penny - has to go to hell, then the genie is the one violating the deal, and not me.
Of course, every one of us will be made immortal and then cast into the middle of some asteroid where we will never be able to make contact with anybody, or have any sensory perceptions of anything except possible constant intense pain, but that's what you get when you deal with genies...
February 10th, 2019 at 8:57:52 AM
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I guess we need to know whether:
There exists at least one logician that either (1) does not believe in hell or (2) already believes he is going to hell no matter what.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 8:59:38 AM
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Quote: unJonExactly, Dalex. House of cards falls down. Though Wizard would propbably be grateful if you edited your second post to put it under a spoiler code.
Good idea, done.
February 10th, 2019 at 10:40:16 AM
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A few thoughts
Consider the end of the chain of purchases. When the purchase price gets down to one penny then that last purchaser will be unable to re-sell the bottle and will be confined to hell for eternity. In principle, no one will buy it under those conditions. Indeed, no one would buy the bottle for two cents, because they should be unable to sell it for one cent. Extending this logic, no one would be able to sell the bottle because at any point in the chain they should be unable to find a subsequent buyer.
That indeed may be the answer that is looked for by the Wizard. The fear of being unable to find a buyer will prevent anyone from selling it.
But perhaps this logical chain can be broken. Because there will always be buyers, just as there will always be gamblers who will play 6:5 blackjack.
Buyers who might be willing to be the last person to buy the bottle for one penny, or for a few pennies, would be:
1. People who are going to Hell anyway. Mass murderers. Or Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. (uh-oh. A hijack?)
2. People who do not believe in Hell. Atheists and non-Christians.
3. People who are not logicians. The Kardashians, for example.
4. Hedonists who opt for short-term pleasure (their grant of a wish by the genie) despite long-term consequences. Drug addicts and alcoholics. Men with a hard-on. Women with a credit card. Et cetera. (ooh, descending into sexism here, not a pretty thing.)
5. People who are willing to martyr themselves for something they love. Example: A parent with a child who is dying a slow painful death.
There might also be tactics for breaking the logical chain. Something involving time reversal (which was not specifically ruled out in the problem statement.) Wishing that any subsequent buyer will immediately die before they can can re-sell the bottle. Wishing for eternal life for all buyers of the bottle, including yourself.
However, none of these possible solutions seem to result in a "least amount you should pay." So I assume the Wizard envisions a different solution to this problem.
P.S. Wow, young Barbara Eden was really hot, wasn't she?
Consider the end of the chain of purchases. When the purchase price gets down to one penny then that last purchaser will be unable to re-sell the bottle and will be confined to hell for eternity. In principle, no one will buy it under those conditions. Indeed, no one would buy the bottle for two cents, because they should be unable to sell it for one cent. Extending this logic, no one would be able to sell the bottle because at any point in the chain they should be unable to find a subsequent buyer.
That indeed may be the answer that is looked for by the Wizard. The fear of being unable to find a buyer will prevent anyone from selling it.
But perhaps this logical chain can be broken. Because there will always be buyers, just as there will always be gamblers who will play 6:5 blackjack.
Buyers who might be willing to be the last person to buy the bottle for one penny, or for a few pennies, would be:
1. People who are going to Hell anyway. Mass murderers. Or Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. (uh-oh. A hijack?)
2. People who do not believe in Hell. Atheists and non-Christians.
3. People who are not logicians. The Kardashians, for example.
4. Hedonists who opt for short-term pleasure (their grant of a wish by the genie) despite long-term consequences. Drug addicts and alcoholics. Men with a hard-on. Women with a credit card. Et cetera. (ooh, descending into sexism here, not a pretty thing.)
5. People who are willing to martyr themselves for something they love. Example: A parent with a child who is dying a slow painful death.
There might also be tactics for breaking the logical chain. Something involving time reversal (which was not specifically ruled out in the problem statement.) Wishing that any subsequent buyer will immediately die before they can can re-sell the bottle. Wishing for eternal life for all buyers of the bottle, including yourself.
However, none of these possible solutions seem to result in a "least amount you should pay." So I assume the Wizard envisions a different solution to this problem.
P.S. Wow, young Barbara Eden was really hot, wasn't she?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
February 10th, 2019 at 11:01:33 AM
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This is why I wanted to know if I could make a compound wish:Quote: gordonm888A few thoughts
Consider the end of the chain of purchases. When the purchase price gets down to one penny then that last purchaser will be unable to re-sell the bottle and will be confined to hell for eternity. In principle, no one will buy it under those conditions. Indeed, no one would buy the bottle for two cents, because they should be unable to sell it for one cent. Extending this logic, no one would be able to sell the bottle because at any point in the chain they should be unable to find a subsequent buyer.
That indeed may be the answer that is looked for by the Wizard. The fear of being unable to find a buyer will prevent anyone from selling it.
But perhaps this logical chain can be broken. Because there will always be buyers, just as there will always be gamblers who will play 6:5 blackjack.
Buyers who might be willing to be the last person to buy the bottle for one penny, or for a few pennies, would be:
1. People who are going to Hell anyway. Mass murderers. Or Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. (uh-oh. A hijack?)
2. People who do not believe in Hell. Atheists and non-Christians.
3. People who are not logicians. The Kardashians, for example.
4. Hedonists who opt for short-term pleasure (their grant of a wish by the genie) despite long-term consequences. Drug addicts and alcoholics. Men with a hard-on. Women with a credit card. Et cetera. (ooh, descending into sexism here, not a pretty thing.)
5. People who are willing to martyr themselves for something they love. Example: A parent with a child who is dying a slow painful death.
There might also be tactics for breaking the logical chain. Something involving time reversal (which was not specifically ruled out in the problem statement.) Wishing that any subsequent buyer will immediately die before they can can re-sell the bottle. Wishing for eternal life for all buyers of the bottle, including yourself.
However, none of these possible solutions seem to result in a "least amount you should pay." So I assume the Wizard envisions a different solution to this problem.
P.S. Wow, young Barbara Eden was really hot, wasn't she?
Buy for two cents then wish for the thing you want delivered to you by an atheist logician
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 12:08:55 PM
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Quote: unJonA few questions:
1) Can you sell it for negative amounts (ie, pay someone to take it)?
2) Can you make compound wishes (ie, I wish I had A and B)?
3) Is there such a thing as an uncountable infinite amount of U.S. currency in this hypothetical world of real genies and hell?
4) Can the same person own the genie more than once?
This reminds me of that Twighlight Zone episode where a man brings a box with a red button and tells the couple that if they push the red button someone they don’t know will be killed and the couple will receive a million dollars.
1. No
2. No -- that would be like asking for "more wishes."
3. No, but I don't think that plays into it.
4. I don't see why not, but you can't sell it to yourself. However, I will say that collusion is not allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 12:10:53 PM
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Quote: Dalex64I would pay a penny.
I would pre-arrange a buyer, take him to the sale, take his money and add my penny and buy the bottle, make my wish and hand over the bottle to my buyer.
Given that the pre-arranged buyer must be a logician, I think he would want to know what he will have to pay. In other words, you need to be more specific.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 12:17:15 PM
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I think it's safe to unhide your portion about the possible buyers. First, let me remind you of part of the original question -- "You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You believe in hell and expect to not otherwise go there. What is the least amount you should pay? "
1. Maybe I should have been more clear, but all logicians would be in the same shoes you are, in particular believing in hell and also believing they would not otherwise go there.
2. See #1
3. I said you had to sell it to a logician.
4. I would argue such people can't be logicians, as their life choices are not very logical.
5. That's probably your strongest point. However, again, we're trying to keep this simple and pertinent information like that was not left out.
Quote: gordonm888Buyers who might be willing to be the last person to buy the bottle for one penny, or for a few pennies, would be:
1. People who are going to Hell anyway. Mass murderers. Or Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. (uh-oh. A hijack?)
2. People who do not believe in Hell. Atheists and non-Christians.
3. People who are not logicians. The Kardashians, for example.
4. Hedonists who opt for short-term pleasure (their grant of a wish by the genie) despite long-term consequences. Drug addicts and alcoholics. Men with a hard-on. Women with a credit card. Et cetera. (ooh, descending into sexism here, not a pretty thing.)
5. People who are willing to martyr themselves for something they love. Example: A parent with a child who is dying a slow painful death.
1. Maybe I should have been more clear, but all logicians would be in the same shoes you are, in particular believing in hell and also believing they would not otherwise go there.
2. See #1
3. I said you had to sell it to a logician.
4. I would argue such people can't be logicians, as their life choices are not very logical.
5. That's probably your strongest point. However, again, we're trying to keep this simple and pertinent information like that was not left out.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 1:08:47 PM
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Quote: Wizard
1. Maybe I should have been more clear, but all logicians would be in the same shoes you are, in particular believing in hell and also believing they would not otherwise go there.
2. See #1
3. I said you had to sell it to a logician.
4. I would argue such people can't be logicians, as their life choices are not very logical.
5. That's probably your strongest point. However, again, we're trying to keep this simple and pertinent information like that was not left out.
These answers are fair enough. The point that was really not clear to me (and still may not have been stated as explicitly as you intended) is that the genie's bottle can only be sold to logicians -not only by you but by anyone else who sells the bottle.
In actuality, I wonder how many people would qualify as logicians. I think the 'problem statement' intends us to assume an essentially infinite supply of logicians and money -that our solution to the problem should not exploit the fact that there are only 300 logicians in the US, or that some of them are broke and can't afford a genie bottle. :) This is a logic problem that is dressed up as a dilemma involving human beings.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
February 10th, 2019 at 1:35:21 PM
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Quote: WizardA stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You believe in hell and expect to not otherwise go there. What is the least amount you should pay?...
Assume there is a minimum price you, a logician, would pay. All logicians would have the same minimum price since they all use the same correct reasoning. But any new selling price would be at least one cent lower than the previous selling price, which contradicts the fact that all logicians would have the same minimum. Therefore, the original assumption is wrong, and there is no answer.
February 10th, 2019 at 1:55:16 PM
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Quote: ChesterDogAssume there is a minimum price you, a logician, would pay. All logicians would have the same minimum price since they all use the same correct reasoning. But any new selling price would be at least one cent lower than the previous selling price, which contradicts the fact that all logicians would have the same minimum. Therefore, the original assumption is wrong, and there is no answer.
To that, I would say that not all logicians think exactly alike. To a point Gordon made, nor do they all have exactly the same amount of money. However, we can assume for the problem that there are plenty of logicians.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 1:57:30 PM
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You could wish to be Satan, then hell won’t seem so bad.
I heart Crystal Math.
February 10th, 2019 at 2:04:20 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ChesterDogAssume there is a minimum price you, a logician, would pay. All logicians would have the same minimum price since they all use the same correct reasoning. But any new selling price would be at least one cent lower than the previous selling price, which contradicts the fact that all logicians would have the same minimum. Therefore, the original assumption is wrong, and there is no answer.
To that, I would say that not all logicians think exactly alike. To a point Gordon made, nor do they all have exactly the same amount of money. However, we can assume for the problem that there are plenty of logicians.
I like Chester's answer far more than your response to Chester. I believe for the purpose of a puzzle like this all logicians should think exactly alike. And how much money someone has is clearly a red herring in a puzzle like this. Should be no factor. Someone deciding on whether they will spend eternity in hell should be bankroll independent.
February 10th, 2019 at 2:06:40 PM
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"Hell avoidance" seems the most important from a logicians point of view (in my opinion).
Can anyone with the bottle commit suicide before the year is up , and still not go to hell?
On a related note, can you sell it to a logician who knows they have less than a year to live?
If the answer to any of my two questions is yes, then:
I would pay X(pennies) for the bottle
X is defined in this scenario as Y x L
Y = 1 penny
L = Number of logicians in the world (with the "last one" expecting or prepared to die within a year)
If the answer is no to both of my questions, then no logician would buy the bottle in the first place (in my opinion).
Is the above correct, or on the "right track" at least?
Can anyone with the bottle commit suicide before the year is up , and still not go to hell?
On a related note, can you sell it to a logician who knows they have less than a year to live?
If the answer to any of my two questions is yes, then:
I would pay X(pennies) for the bottle
X is defined in this scenario as Y x L
Y = 1 penny
L = Number of logicians in the world (with the "last one" expecting or prepared to die within a year)
If the answer is no to both of my questions, then no logician would buy the bottle in the first place (in my opinion).
Is the above correct, or on the "right track" at least?
February 10th, 2019 at 2:24:22 PM
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Update to my previous reply
:
If the "stranger" was bound by the same rule of "selling it within a year", then he/she must not have been a logician, if the answer is no to both of the questions at the top of my previous reply (in my opinion),
Update (about 240pm)
part of my reasoning for my "yes" answer (in my previous reply) can be found below:
"...each party must perform under that contract and carry out certain obligations placed upon them. But, if either party dies before the sale can be completed, then obviously that party can no longer perform under such contract...."
see link for source info
https://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/legal-questions/the-seller-passed-away-now-what-127954.aspx
I used Australian "contract law" since that is where I live.
Is this "contract law" similar or the same in the US?
:
If the "stranger" was bound by the same rule of "selling it within a year", then he/she must not have been a logician, if the answer is no to both of the questions at the top of my previous reply (in my opinion),
Update (about 240pm)
part of my reasoning for my "yes" answer (in my previous reply) can be found below:
"...each party must perform under that contract and carry out certain obligations placed upon them. But, if either party dies before the sale can be completed, then obviously that party can no longer perform under such contract...."
see link for source info
https://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/legal-questions/the-seller-passed-away-now-what-127954.aspx
I used Australian "contract law" since that is where I live.
Is this "contract law" similar or the same in the US?
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2019
February 10th, 2019 at 2:46:55 PM
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There's a joke that there can't be a smallest uninteresting number, as it would then be interesting. So I agree with some of the logic in previous answers.
Of course the other solution is to find someone who already lives in Hell (apparently there are seven of them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_(disambiguation) !)
Of course the other solution is to find someone who already lives in Hell (apparently there are seven of them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_(disambiguation) !)
February 10th, 2019 at 2:52:40 PM
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Quote: charliepatrick...Of course the other solution is to find someone who already lives in Hell (apparently there are seven of them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_(disambiguation) !)
Lol, I don't know if I would rather be sent to "Hell", or live in "Hell, California".
February 10th, 2019 at 3:36:09 PM
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I would...
I simply wouldnt purchase the bottle i was offered, and not told i had to in the first place. I dont believe in hell as you choose your own reality. Ill never see hell, and i won't have to deal with the rules of the game in the first place if i never take the deal.
February 10th, 2019 at 3:38:03 PM
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All of you are masters of avoiding the topic and confusing the issue. I recommend a career in politics or law. I bet one of you was behind this:
Okay, here is a rephrasing of the question:
Okay, here is a rephrasing of the question:
Quote: WizA stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them and he must pass then onto the next buyer, infinitely. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You may assume the following of all logicians -- you believe in hell, you believe you would not otherwise go there unless you got stuck with the bottle after a year, you do not wish to go to hell, the Genie can not grant wishes that improve your stay in hell, you expect to live through the following year, there is no wish that would be worth going to hell over, not all logicians value the genie equally (affecting what they would pay) or have the same amount of money, and that owls wearing graduation caps is a cliche, What is the least amount you should pay?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 3:56:06 PM
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I changed my answer
4 cents correction 5 cents I give up, there is no answer
Last edited by: Fleaswatter on Feb 10, 2019
new motto for the left: “I don't know if I received bad information, but I think I suspected there was more than there actually was,” (John Brennan Mar 25, 2019)
February 10th, 2019 at 4:29:40 PM
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Then I think the backwards induction argument given first by RS is correct.Quote: WizardAll of you are masters of avoiding the topic and confusing the issue. I recommend a career in politics or law. I bet one of you was behind this:
Okay, here is a rephrasing of the question:Quote: WizA stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them and he must pass then onto the next buyer, infinitely. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You may assume the following of all logicians -- you believe in hell, you believe you would not otherwise go there unless you got stuck with the bottle after a year, you do not wish to go to hell, the Genie can not grant wishes that improve your stay in hell, you expect to live through the following year, there is no wish that would be worth going to hell over, not all logicians value the genie equally (affecting what they would pay) or have the same amount of money, and that owls wearing graduation caps is a cliche, What is the least amount you should pay?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 4:59:46 PM
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Guys we got a major hint there!
First of all, owls wearing graduation hats is NOT cliche. Using my seductive reasoning, you put this into the riddle to show that every other part of that sentence is ALSO untrue.
Riddle me this: Is the answer you’re looking for an actual dollar & cent amount, a formula, or is it “other” (EG: explanation of why it’s ♾ infinite)? AND DONT RESPOND JUST SAYING “yes”.
First of all, owls wearing graduation hats is NOT cliche. Using my seductive reasoning, you put this into the riddle to show that every other part of that sentence is ALSO untrue.
Riddle me this: Is the answer you’re looking for an actual dollar & cent amount, a formula, or is it “other” (EG: explanation of why it’s ♾ infinite)? AND DONT RESPOND JUST SAYING “yes”.
February 10th, 2019 at 5:49:11 PM
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My answer is $273,750. The explanation follows.
Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.
Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.
Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.
So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.
I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x $0.01 = $273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.
I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.
The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
February 10th, 2019 at 5:49:43 PM
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Ok maybe a different explanation on my original approach
Buy it from the seller for one cent less than he is asking, or, offer as much as you can if you are in the unfortunate ppsition of making the first offer.
This will maximize your chances of attracting another "fish" to buy from you, as there will still be a lot of room in price for your customer to sell to someone else, until the drop dead point of 2 cents.
So, a logician should want to buy it from you for one cent less than you paid for it, which would make the net cost to me only one cent still, but at that point I have also gotten a wish out of it.
Still, the more pennies above 2 cents that are available, the better the chance you have of selling it and not going to hell.
So, my answer is - pay as much as you can, and sell it for one cent less than that, which using my strategy, the next logician should be happy to pay that much.
Hopefully that was a little more specific, and not just a rehash of my first answer in the thread.
Buy it from the seller for one cent less than he is asking, or, offer as much as you can if you are in the unfortunate ppsition of making the first offer.
This will maximize your chances of attracting another "fish" to buy from you, as there will still be a lot of room in price for your customer to sell to someone else, until the drop dead point of 2 cents.
So, a logician should want to buy it from you for one cent less than you paid for it, which would make the net cost to me only one cent still, but at that point I have also gotten a wish out of it.
Still, the more pennies above 2 cents that are available, the better the chance you have of selling it and not going to hell.
So, my answer is - pay as much as you can, and sell it for one cent less than that, which using my strategy, the next logician should be happy to pay that much.
Hopefully that was a little more specific, and not just a rehash of my first answer in the thread.
February 10th, 2019 at 8:34:29 PM
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Let me ask this, what would happen if you bought the bottle for two cents?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2019 at 8:44:43 PM
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You’d make a wish, not find anyone to sell it to and then go to hell. Just like RS said in his first post in this thread. And so on all the way to any amount of cents for the bottle by backwards induction.Quote: WizardLet me ask this, what would happen if you bought the bottle for two cents?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2019 at 10:45:53 PM
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Quote: unJonYou’d make a wish, not find anyone to sell it to and then go to hell. Just like RS said in his first post in this thread. And so on all the way to any amount of cents for the bottle by backwards induction.
Wizard probably has me blocked I bet. :-)
And since when do genies live in bottles? They live in lamps!
February 11th, 2019 at 3:07:10 PM
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Quote: gordonm888
My answer is $273,750. The explanation follows.
Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.
Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.
Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.
So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.
I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x $0.01 = $273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.
I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.
The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.
The above was a serious attempt to solve the problem -or at least to advance towards a solution. I was hoping for a comment, so this is a shameless bump.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
February 11th, 2019 at 4:11:24 PM
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Okay, I think RS gets credit for being the first with the correct answer. I think his correct answer got lost with all the others who nit-picked the wording of the question.
As to Gordon's wacky answer, I think we can quit hiding it and discuss openly. That was a pretty good idea. I would simplify it to make a Ponzi scheme out of it. As long as new logicians keep being born, there will always be one to sell to. However, if the price kept going down, eventually you'd have a problem of the price dropping to a penny and somebody going to hell.
If we start it at $100,000, we could have 10 millions wishes granted. Assuming it changes hands every day, it could go 27,397 years before reaching zero.
As to Gordon's wacky answer, I think we can quit hiding it and discuss openly. That was a pretty good idea. I would simplify it to make a Ponzi scheme out of it. As long as new logicians keep being born, there will always be one to sell to. However, if the price kept going down, eventually you'd have a problem of the price dropping to a penny and somebody going to hell.
If we start it at $100,000, we could have 10 millions wishes granted. Assuming it changes hands every day, it could go 27,397 years before reaching zero.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 11th, 2019 at 6:19:05 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: gordonm888
My answer is $273,750. The explanation follows.
Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.
Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.
Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.
So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.
I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x $0.01 = $273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.
I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.
The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.
The above was a serious attempt to solve the problem -or at least to advance towards a solution. I was hoping for a comment, so this is a shameless bump.
I like gordons answer more than RS. Eventually, someone will die with the genie.
Couldn’t you sell it to someone who was terminally ill?
February 11th, 2019 at 6:27:06 PM
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So it turns out this is the basis for a novel by Robert Louis Stevenson called the Bottle Imp. Anyone read?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bottle_Imp
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bottle_Imp
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 11th, 2019 at 6:35:16 PM
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The problem is about heaven vs hell, not dying vs not dying. Okay I worded that wonkily, it should be read as "The problem is about heaven vs hell, not dying vs not-dying." Everyone is going to die eventually, regardless. I don't think going to hell sounds that much more appealing if you're gonna go in 1 week versus 100 years.
Unless of course, the logic is, "I only have a 0.00000x% chance of dying, so I can probably pawn this sucker off on some sucker who's gonna drop dead randomly, so I'll be chilling. RIP forever to that guy though, pce." ?
But then again -- counter argument -- is it with a 0.000x% or whatever chance of dropping dead randomly and going to hell for all of eternity, just to get a wish? I would say no, it's not.
Unless of course, the logic is, "I only have a 0.00000x% chance of dying, so I can probably pawn this sucker off on some sucker who's gonna drop dead randomly, so I'll be chilling. RIP forever to that guy though, pce." ?
But then again -- counter argument -- is it with a 0.000x% or whatever chance of dropping dead randomly and going to hell for all of eternity, just to get a wish? I would say no, it's not.
February 11th, 2019 at 6:51:15 PM
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Ok, I may have misinterpreted the problem.
If you die before you have sold and before a year, you still go to hell?
Then RS is correct.
If you die before you have sold and before a year, you still go to hell?
Then RS is correct.
February 11th, 2019 at 7:56:49 PM
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Dying before you sell the bottle should not be an issue. So, assume you have a 100% chance of living during the one year that you have to sell the bottle.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 11th, 2019 at 8:29:49 PM
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I would buy the vase for whatever is the asking price.
It seems we are assuming the value of going to hell to be around negative infinity. I would just wish for infinite value and then there's no net loss even if I fail to sell it.
Also,
If I buy the jar, that means I am not a logician and the guy who sold it to me is scheduled to go to hell, with his only chance of redemption being to buy it back from me and sell it again. But for me to sell it to him, he will have to become a logician, so I already have a buyer and get-out-of-hell card as soon as I buy it
It seems we are assuming the value of going to hell to be around negative infinity. I would just wish for infinite value and then there's no net loss even if I fail to sell it.
Also,
If I buy the jar, that means I am not a logician and the guy who sold it to me is scheduled to go to hell, with his only chance of redemption being to buy it back from me and sell it again. But for me to sell it to him, he will have to become a logician, so I already have a buyer and get-out-of-hell card as soon as I buy it
February 11th, 2019 at 8:41:24 PM
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Quote: TomGIt seems we are assuming the value of going to hell to be around negative infinity. I would just wish for infinite value and then there's no net loss even if I fail to sell it.
What could you wish for in this lifetime, other than never dying, that would outweigh the negative infinity of hell?
Quote:If I buy the jar, that means I am not a logician and the guy who sold it to me is scheduled to go to hell, with his only chance of redemption being to buy it back from me and sell it again. But for me to sell it to him, he will have to become a logician, so I already have a buyer and get-out-of-hell card as soon as I buy it
Just the fact that you thought of that makes you a logician.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 11th, 2019 at 9:05:49 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote:
If I buy the jar, that means I am not a logician and the guy who sold it to me is scheduled to go to hell, with his only chance of redemption being to buy it back from me and sell it again. But for me to sell it to him, he will have to become a logician, so I already have a buyer and get-out-of-hell card as soon as I buy itWhat could you wish for in this lifetime, other than never dying, that would outweigh the negative infinity of hell?
Just the fact that you thought of that makes you a logician.
wikipedia says John Stuart Mill is a logician and he would argue that buying the flask is logical, because the possibility I go to hell is completely offset by the seller no longer going to hell, while also adding the value of my one wish. The only question is, if there are plenty of logicians, does that mean there are also plenty of utilitarianists? (which is not a word, but I will claim it as a subset of logicians).
February 12th, 2019 at 12:06:24 AM
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What is: The value of the single wish that can be granted within the stated rules - the cost of eternity in Hell + one cent? That is the minimum price.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 12th, 2019 at 10:31:59 AM
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Lots of people know they are going to hell, so live a boring life or have one hell of a year? The negative older you are, the easier the decidion to buy the bottle.
