seanythetank
seanythetank
Joined: Apr 29, 2018
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 13
April 29th, 2018 at 8:22:20 AM permalink
So the other day I saw this happen, 9 ties in a row. What are the odds of this happening, in standard 8 deck Baccarat?
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 762
April 29th, 2018 at 8:44:48 AM permalink
Here are the chances:

0.000000006803669441384630000000


So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2791
April 29th, 2018 at 8:45:54 AM permalink
But you have to admit, better than the chance of 18 yo's in a row!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 312
  • Posts: 8648
April 29th, 2018 at 9:22:09 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Here are the chances:

0.000000006803669441384630000000


So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.



accepting your figure, that's 1 chance in 146,979,510

it's impossible to say impossible, so this is how I like to say it is vastly improbable anymore:

if the report is so reliable that there is only one chance in a million it could be wrong, and we round the alternative to one chance in 146 million, then it is more likely that the report is in some way mistaken by 2 orders of magnitude [plenty considering it is versus that ridiculously generous one chance in a million that the report was unreliable.]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
April 29th, 2018 at 9:39:03 AM permalink
Quote: seanythetank

So the other day I saw this happen, 9 ties in a row.
What are the odds of this happening, in standard 8 deck Baccarat?

I saw 7 times in a row, once. Table went crazy and bet the Tie til the end of the shoe.

The chance it happens in an 8 deck standard shoe (avg 81 hands and nOT online casino) is about
0.000000042310422 or
1 in 23,634,838.7 shoes on average

simple streak calculator
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/home

p(ties)=0.095156
trials=81
streak=9

others calculate just for 9 hands
well,
there are always more than 9 hands played in an 8 deck shoe
(I am just guessing)

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 191
  • Posts: 10548
Thanks for this post from:
SM777
April 29th, 2018 at 10:36:02 AM permalink
Did it really happen? I gotta doubt it.

Is it possible? I suppose anything is possible.

Bottom line: Shit happens…
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
April 29th, 2018 at 11:06:55 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

accepting your figure, that's 1 chance in 146,979,510

it's impossible to say impossible, so this is how I like to say it is vastly improbable anymore:

if the report is so reliable that there is only one chance in a million it could be wrong, and we round the alternative to one chance in 146 million, then it is more likely that the report is in some way mistaken by 2 orders of magnitude [plenty considering it is versus that ridiculously generous one chance in a million that the report was unreliable.]


Powerball is 1 in 292 million. I'd say this happened.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
April 29th, 2018 at 11:28:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Powerball is 1 in 292 million. I'd say this happened.

that is close to 10 Ties in a row in a shoe.
I say it happened too.

question for the OP, make any bets on Tie during the streak?

lots of 'monkey' 'monkey' being yelled too!

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 5926
Thanks for this post from:
SM777DeMango
April 29th, 2018 at 11:31:29 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Here are the chances:

0.000000006803669441384630000000


So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.

Easy to estimate the probability of that event happening and being observed by a random truthful observer.
Far more difficult to estimate whether this brand new member is...

1. Truthful,
2. Reliable,
3. Joined here just to tell us what he saw,
4. Joined here out of some mischievous intent.

I have never seen 3 or more ties in succession ( not watched many games )
I have seen many, MANY, members join here out of mischievous intent.

Welcome new user.

Why tell us way less than half of the story?
Which casino?
How much had you wagered?
How much did you win/lose?
How much had you drunk, snorted, injected?
Did you wager the contents of your wallet on any hand from that shoe?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
seanythetank
seanythetank
Joined: Apr 29, 2018
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 13
April 29th, 2018 at 11:52:52 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


Welcome new user.

Why tell us way less than half of the story?
Which casino?
How much had you wagered?
How much did you win/lose?
How much had you drunk, snorted, injected?
Did you wager the contents of your wallet on any hand from that shoe?



Hi guys, wow I didn't expect this much interest. I had previously asked Reddit, but they gave me some dubious answers so I created an account here to ask. I didn't think the details would be of interest, but here they are:

Which casino?
It was at Crown casino, in Melbourne Australia. It was a standup, low limit mini bac table in the main floor area.

How much had you wagered? Win/loss?
I wasn't playing, just watching. One person was playing, and had a single $25 bet which he let ride left on the bet for the streak. No other bets on the table.

How inebriated were you?
Stone sober. It was the middle of the day.

Any other questions I'll be happy to answer!
Last edited by: seanythetank on Apr 30, 2018

  • Jump to: