mkl654321
mkl654321
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August 16th, 2010 at 12:08:00 PM permalink
I used to play a lot with friends as a "team", and we would play marathon sessions. To amuse ourselves, we started keeping track of certain things. One day, we noticed that we had been dealt an inordinate number of four-card royals--and had missed them all. We figured it had been at least a dozen or so, but decided to start counting how many we drew to and our "track record", from that point on. We went 0-for-127 until I hit a royal on the 128th attempt. We then went 0-for-96 before we stopped counting, for an overall result of 1-for-224.

1. How crappy a result was this, in terms of standard deviations and odds against?
2. What is the median number of draws before one should hit a royal, drawing one card (my ballpark guess is about 32)?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 16th, 2010 at 12:46:57 PM permalink
I don't know how to calculage the SD,but that is pretty sucky.

Then again, what casino was it? I.E. Was it Class II or Class III machines?

On a side note, whether its video poker or other slots, how can you tell if it's Class II or Class III?
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Wizard
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Wizard 
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August 16th, 2010 at 1:16:54 PM permalink
That isn't that unlucky. The probability of getting exactly 1 royal out of 224 4-royal draws is 224*(1/47)*(46/47)^223 = 0.039384407.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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August 16th, 2010 at 1:35:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That isn't that unlucky. The probability of getting exactly 1 royal out of 224 4-royal draws is 224*(1/47)*(46/47)^223 = 0.039384407.



Interesting. That's kind of close to what I was thinking--at first blush, missing so many times would seem to be a terrible result, but upon further reflection, I realized that we were "only" about 3.5 royals "short" for these draws, and anything that's 46-1 against failing to happen as often as it "should" isn't all that unusual.

Interestingly enough, for the period in question, we were down less than $500, which is far less than the "missing" royals would suggest. Of course, we quite possibly received the 4RF much more often than expected, which would skew the results. (We didn't hit any royals other than that one, drawing one, two, three, four, or five cards, so we actually SHOULD have gotten killed--but we hit quad deuces quite a few times.)

To answer another poster, these were full-pay Deuces Wild .25 machines in several different "locals'" casinos in Vegas.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Wizard
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Wizard 
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August 16th, 2010 at 3:26:46 PM permalink
There are so many situations in video poker that you can sit down for a long session, like 4000 hands, and notice a big deficiency somewhere in retrospect. Ultimately, it is the just the final win/loss that matters.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teddys
teddys
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August 16th, 2010 at 6:37:38 PM permalink
I've hit six royals since I started playing seriously about a year ago -- one Pick 'Em for $1500, three regular $1000s, one short-coin (!:<) $125, and one dollar $4000. I am way above expectation, but I'm still down for my play overall. This is probably because I lump my VP winnings with my other gambling bankroll, and I've hit bad patches in blackjack and other games.
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What do other people do? Do you keep your bankroll for different games separate? I wish I kept better records of my play -- if not for myself than for tax purposes at least.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

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