Free single odds bets

According to John Scarne, "Scarne on Dice","The smart dice player can slice down the house edge of 1.41% on the pass line bets to less than 1 percent on the pass line bets by taking Free single odds bets".
Does this mean that if I take double odds, I can slice the house edge down another .41% and triple odds down an additional .41% etc.? Is there a formula for determining the impact of the odds amount to the 1.41%?

Quote: sanstar

Does this mean that if I take double odds, I can slice the house edge down another .41% and triple odds down an additional .41% etc.?

Even at 100x its still marginally against you. You won't ever get to zero.

House Advantage
Odds Pass Line Don't Pass
0x 1.41% 1.36%
1x 0.848% 0.682%
2x 0.606% 0.455%
2xFull 0.572% 0.431%
3x 0.471% 0.341%
3x4x5x 0.374% 0.273%
5x 0.326% 0.227%
10x 0.184% 0.124%
20x 0.099% 0.065%
100x 0.021% 0.014%

Think of it in terms of starting 10 inches away from a wall and always halving your distance. You'll get really, really close but you'll never actually get there (0% HA). The problem is that each time you get halfway there, you increase your variance. In other words: higher variance for lower HA which is a pretty good deal. Usually you have to increase the HA for higher variance (roulette, slots).

https://wizardofodds.com/craps

near the top of the page it has a chart for what youre looking for.

youre not really cutting down the house edge though. youre just making two separate wagers. one where the house has an edge on you and one where the house has no edge on you. odds just camouflage how much youre actually losing.

Quote: rudeboyoi

You're not really cutting down the house edge though. You're just making two separate wagers. One where the house has an edge on you and one where the house has no edge on you.

This is a matter of semantics since the two bets are not independent. You must make the one in order to make the other. Since people make all kinds of combined bets (like horn bets or hop bets), the final odds are combination of all the component parts of the bet.

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The formula is given as follows:
x times odds on the 6 and 8, (defaults to three on the strip)
y times on the 5 and 9, (defaults to four on the strip)
z times on the 4 and 10 (defaults to five on the strip)
The formula is HAcomb = HAbase / Factor
HAbase= (-7 / 495) = -1.41%
Factor= 1 + ((5x + 4y + 3z) / 18) = 32/9 using strip defaults

HAcomb = (-7 / 495) / (32 /9) = - 7 /(32*55) = .3977% using strip defaults

The strip defaults are set up so that if you always take maximum odds you always are paid 7 times your original bet when you win. It makes it easier on the dealers to keep track of big betters.
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Why wouldn't you play craps with odds instead of baccarat?

Main street Station permits odds bets of up to $2000 to $2500 on every single bet (not just cumulatively). That's up to a quarter million dollars in play per hour at HA=0.065% .

Since it is much harder to grasp these very small house advantages let me rephrase the question. Suppose you have $100K to gamble with. You want to break it up into 50 bets of $2000 apiece. Your goal is to double your money.

Playing the banker bet in baccarat at $2000 per bet you have a 20.34% of doubling your money before going bankrupt. And the banker bet has the lowest house advantage.

If you go to main street and make the same bet at 19X odds in craps ($100 on pass line and $1900 free odds bet) you have a 47.42% of doubling your money before you go bankrupt. That is slightly lower HA than putting the entire amount on red or black in a single spin at roulette.

Even if you don't won't to go to Main Street, and you simply play triple odds in craps on the strip the probability is 38.43% . That is still much better than 20.34%.

I truly don't understand the obsession with baccarat.

Quote: pacomartin

This is a matter of semantics since the two bets are not independent. You must make the one in order to make the other. Since people make all kinds of combined bets (like horn bets or hop bets), the final odds are combination of all the component parts of the bet.

Yes, they are linked in that sense and in that they both resolve the same way at the same time, but I believe it is mis-leading to analyze them together in calculating HA. In fact, taking/laying odds does NOTHING to change the expected loss, which is always 1.414% of the flat amount. Odds add variance without increasing expected loss, and that is much clearer when you think in terms of ev, not HA.

Quote: pacomartin

The formula is given as follows:
x times odds on the 6 and 8, (defaults to three on the strip)
y times on the 5 and 9, (defaults to four on the strip)
z times on the 4 and 10 (defaults to five on the strip)
The formula is HAcomb = HAbase / Factor
HAbase= (-7 / 495) = -1.41%
Factor= 1 + ((5x + 4y + 3z) / 18) = 32/9 using strip defaults

HAcomb = (-7 / 495) / (32 /9) = - 7 /(32*55) = .3977% using strip defaults

The strip defaults are set up so that if you always take maximum odds you always are paid 7 times your original bet when you win. It makes it easier on the dealers to keep track of big betters.

Correct figure is .3743%.
A handy formula for figuring the combined HA is:
.509 / (36 + 24x) where x is the odds multiple.
Of course, with 3,4,5X odds, you have to weight those and get the weighted average of 4.1666.

Quote: pacomartin

Why wouldn't you play craps with odds instead of baccarat?

Main street Station permits odds bets of up to $2000 to $2500 on every single bet (not just cumulatively). That's up to a quarter million dollars in play per hour at HA=0.065% .

Since it is much harder to grasp these very small house advantages let me rephrase the question. Suppose you have $100K to gamble with. You want to break it up into 50 bets of $2000 apiece. Your goal is to double your money.

Playing the banker bet in baccarat at $2000 per bet you have a 20.34% of doubling your money before going bankrupt. And the banker bet has the lowest house advantage.

If you go to main street and make the same bet at 19X odds in craps ($100 on pass line and $1900 free odds bet) you have a 47.42% of doubling your money before you go bankrupt. That is slightly lower HA than putting the entire amount on red or black in a single spin at roulette.

Even if you don't won't to go to Main Street, and you simply play triple odds in craps on the strip the probability is 38.43% . That is still much better than 20.34%.

I truly don't understand the obsession with baccarat.

I don't know whether these figures are correct or not, but they have the same weakness as that formula I posted a while back: they assume you play until you either double your bankroll or lose it, which could take years.
Cheers,
Alan Shank