Predict the March Returns for Vegas Strip

March returns will be published between the 8th and 10th of May.

Despite fairly positive improvement for the last 5 months, I am predicting -14% for the Vegas strip . Gaming Revenue may dip below $400m for the first time since July 2004. If slots go below $200m it will be the first time that Pennsylvania beats the Vegas strip (for slots). I don't think they will go that low, but it is possible.

#	Month	Article	Web link Title	Author
26	Feb	8-Apr-2010	http://www.lvrj.com/business/nevada-gaming-revenues-jump-13_9-percent-in-february-90214067.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenues jump 13.9 percent	HOWARD STUTZ
25	Jan 2010	10-Mar-2010	http://www.lvrj.com/business/nevada-gaming-revenue-down-3_2-percent-in-january-87227207.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Nevada gaming revenue down 3.2 percent in January	HOWARD STUTZ
24	Dec	12-Feb-2010	http://www.lvrj.com/news/gaming-revenues-fall-by-biggest-percentage-ever-84117117.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Casino revenues take plunge	HOWARD STUTZ
23	Nov	13-Jan-2010	http://www.lvrj.com/news/casino-gaming-income-grows-81305347.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Casino gaming income grows	HOWARD STUTZ
22	Oct	10-Dec-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/news/breaking_news/Nevada-gaming-revenues-decline-116-percent-in-October-78962952.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Nevada gaming revenues decline 11.6 percent in October	HOWARD STUTZ
21	Sep	11-Nov-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/state-showing-some-life-at-last-69740927.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> State showing some life at last	HOWARD STUTZ
20	Aug	9-Oct-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/august-drop-is-20th-straight-monthly-dip-but-analysts-see-positives-63835582.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> August drop is 20th straight monthly dip, but analysts see positives	HOWARD STUTZ
19	Jul	11-Sep-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/58935267.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Revenue tumbles yet again	HOWARD STUTZ
18	Jun	12-Aug-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/53029242.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenue at 2004 level	HOWARD STUTZ
17	May	10-Jul-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/news/50460082.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming win has upside, downside	HOWARD STUTZ
16	Apr	6-Jun-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/news/47117757.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenues continue slump	HOWARD STUTZ
15	Mar	8-May-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/44579422.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Edging closer to stability	HOWARD STUTZ
14	Feb	8-Apr-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/42656982.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Casino revenue falls	HOWARD STUTZ
13	Jan 2009	11-Mar-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/business/41077932.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenue keeps sliding	HOWARD STUTZ
12	Dec	12-Feb-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/news/39483742.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Annual gaming revenues suffer sharpest drop in state history	HOWARD STUTZ
11	Nov	9-Jan-2009	http://www.lvrj.com/news/breaking_news/37335099.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenue, visitor count continue to fall	HOWARD STUTZ
10	Oct	11-Dec-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/news/35952509.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenue dives again	HOWARD STUTZ
9	Sep	13-Nov-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/34385654.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming win heads down	HOWARD STUTZ
8	Aug	10-Oct-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/30737069.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Eight months of declines put state's casino win at 2006 levels	HOWARD STUTZ
7	Jul	11-Sep-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/news/28232334.html?numComments=27 ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Nevada is 'struggling,' may finish '08 poorly	HOWARD STUTZ
6	Jun	13-Aug-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/26861409.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Latest decrease 'ain't bad'	B SPILLMAN
5	May	11-Jul-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/news/24444904.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming tax collections sink	ED VOGEL and HOWARD STUTZ
4	Apr	12-Jun-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/19817134.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Gaming revenues tumble again	HOWARD STUTZ
3	Mar	10-May-2008	Low and Behold	HOWARD STUTZ
2	Feb	10-Apr-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/17455964.html?numComments=13 ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> Funk and fear in February	HOWARD STUTZ
1	Jan 2008	8-Mar-2008	http://www.lvrj.com/business/16412321.html ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> State gaming win dips	HOWARD STUTZ

I'm going with a turnaround and slight growth!!! Go Vegas!

When you are talking about the poll, you are talking year over year rates, right?

The percentage would be March 2010 compared to March 2009. Here is the stats for last two years. The revenue has not been below $400m on the strip for any month since July 2004 so that would be pretty severe.

I suppose it's a minor point, but the March 2008 revenue figures differ between the two tables. Presumably, the data are later refined.

Quote: Doc

I suppose it's a minor point, but the March 2008 revenue figures differ between the two tables. Presumably, the data are later refined.

Yea they do refine the numbers. They also move some of the casinos from one category to another (usually only very small casinos) but they will bounce the numbers around by a million or two.

For example they decided that Wild Wild West would now be considered a strip casino instead of a locals casino. Partly that was because the Fertitta brothers wanted to replace it with VIVA (a major project).