What % of gamblers win on a trip to Vegas?

I would appreciate any help on the "BIG Question" of "What % of gamblers that come to vegas leave with more money than they started with." **

**only counting gambling money since buying drinks at a strip club or jewelry for a new girlfriend should not count!!

I think the math would be assuming the typical gambler plays for 10 hours on a typical trip, makes 50 bets per hour (500 bets in total), has an average bet of $10 ($5,000 wagered in all), and the avg. house advantage is 4%...the expected loss would be 4% of $5,000 = $200. So, what is the chance that in 500 bets, the player will overcome a $200 expected loss and come out ahead?

Perhaps one needs to estimate a std. deviation and assume a normal distribution of outcomes???

Can someone, anyone help with either a theoretical or empirical answer?

Many thanks,
Confused in Chicago
JF

PS...I have been told by a Vegas Casino Insider that 40% of gamblers lose in a typical "session" of play.

Man, I don't know; but I usually come home from a gambling trip busted out. If I went to Vegas for a week with $5000, I would either come back with more than $5000, or nothing; but I can guarantee you that I wouldn't come home with $4800.

Now, understand there is a reason for this. I know what is happening. I have $5000 budgeted for thrills, and by god I'm going to get $5000 worth of thrills. So if that means spending a half an hour with $1000 in front of a $10 slot, then that's what I'm going to do. If it means $25 bets at 4 Card, then that's the story line.

And my point that follows from that is, I think the vast majority of gamblers are like me. The number who play to minimize their loss is small; the number who like to accept the odds for the chance at the big hit is high. I have no stats to back this up, and maybe I'm just projecting. But I feel pretty confident on this one.

And, if 40% lose, then 60% win? So, 3 out of 5 win a little, and 2 out of 5 lose a lot? I don't know, I think that's wrong. All my observation is that most players lose, and many of them lose their entire session budget.

The great majority of gamblers come with a gambling budget and either run out of money or run out of time. Some have win and loss limits and will lock in a win.

For me, I've gone to Vegas five times and I'm two for five. My first trip I ran out of time and left up a few hundred. Second and third time losses of about $1,000. Fourth time I left up over a thousand. Last trip down about $1,000. Our gambling budget is $500 / day and once that $500 is gone that's it for the day. Anything won / left over in the previous day does not count. I'm a $10 table player.

I have always considered any time I leave with some of my gambling budget left it is a 'win'. I think of 20 odd trips that I have only come home with more than my gambling budget twice. Another variable in the mix is that my wife and I always subdise each other when one is winning and one is losing which is most of the time.

I usually get home with money only if I win late in the trip. If I win early I typically just move up in stakes or gambling time since I consider the gambling budget the cost of the fun.

As a side not I always found that any holiday seemed to cost me $5000 gambling of not. Entertainment cost money.

I can tell you the way it gets told when they get home:

"yeah, we know the house wins in the end, but funny thing is we actually won some money this time"

It never fails!

It miffs me enough to keep hearing it that I don't like to admit I lost anything big, so if a trip was a loser for me I say "I left down a bit" figuring it is none of their business. I don't lie and say I won unless I did.

Quote: watling

I would appreciate any help on the "BIG Question" of "What % of gamblers that come to vegas leave with more money than they started with." **

Thanks for phrasing it that way. Sometimes people phrase it as mere 'winners' and some people think that if they come back with ANY money, they are a winner!

---

I often describe my Father-In-Law as "The only man to leave Vegas a winner."

We were going to a family wedding. I had quarters in my pocket for weeks waiting to hit the first machine I saw. And I knew it would be about a dozed steps past the jetway at the gate.

Pops, who never gambles, and hardly ever plays cards or board games, had no interest in the slots. But somehow, we convinced him to put a quarter into a machine. He won. $3! He cashed out $2.75 and was happier than a pig in shit.

And he didn't play for the rest of the trip! And that makes him "The only man to leave Vegas a winner."

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I think I read somewhere (or heard on the monorail) that 10-15% of people end up ahead for the trip, but 85-90% either had fun or want to go back...

I've made 6 trips, 5 losers, 1 break even. I guess I'm with the majority...

I can't think of any reliable source that would have a vested interest in publishing this number.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Pops, who never gambles, and hardly ever plays cards or board games, had no interest in the slots. But somehow, we convinced him to put a quarter into a machine. He won. $3! He cashed out $2.75 and was happier than a pig in shit.

And he didn't play for the rest of the trip! And that makes him "The only man to leave Vegas a winner."

Family legend tells of the time when grandpa was lpaying roulette when suddenly his number hit. He was so excited at the win, he ran off to tell grandma. The elgend doesn't provide details, but it would seem he gathered his winnings, but left the original bet in place. When he returned (one assumes shortly afterwards), his number had hit again and the dealer shoved more chips in his direction.

From what I know about my grandparents, he probably didn't leave vegas a winner, but it's a nice story. I call it "The accidental winner."

Years ago I heard a statistic that something like 90% of Vegas visitors leave with a gambling loss. I could be wrong, but if I had to make it guess, that would be about it.

It sort of makes you scratch your head: why when the house edge is 1-12% that 90% of people lose their money? Well, it's all about the money management and the grind of the house edge over thousands of bets.

Take a typical slot player playing on a nickel machine 6 hours a day over three days. In those 18 hours, s/he will probably play 10 credits/pull x 6 pulls a minute x 60 minutes per hour. That's $180/hour x 18 hours = $3,240 bet. But the house advantage on a nickel slot is close to 10%. So s/he'll lose $324.

Take a typical "knowledgeable" video poker playing on a quarter machine for the same 18 hours. S/he will play $1.25 / pull x 10 pulls / minute x 60 minutes per hour. That's $750/hour x 18 hours = $13,500 bet. The HA on a typical VP machine is about 2% and with error is about 2.5%. So s/he'll lose $336.

Take a good craps player who plays at a $10 table with 3 bets always playing (whether it's come bets or 6 and 8s). With an average bet of $30 + odds, s/he will face about 20 resolutions an hour over 18 hours. That's $600 / hour x 18 hours with a HA of about 1.5%. So s/he'll lose $162.

Even a perfect player at Blackjack playing 18 hours x 100 hands/hour x $25/hand x 0.5% = $45,000 x .005 = $225.

But what happens is that you'll have a bankroll that is not infinite and you'll leave when you run out of money. That's why a table game take at a casino is about 20% even though the house advantage on table games is between 0.5 and 5%. You leave your money there. And when you're ahead, you don't quit... you keep playing with the money that you've won.

The great thing about Vegas is that there is no other place like it on earth. People leave a loser but still want to come back for the very unique experience that it offers. And the funny thing about Vegas is that you can have a very "low end" experience by staying and playing at the Tropicana or Circus Circus, eating $1.00 shrimp cocktails and $10 buffets (comped, of course), and watching the free shows in front of the Bellagio and Mirage, say, while a mile away, you can experience a very "high end" experience at the Four Seasons or Encore, eating gourmet dinners by the best chefs in the world, having your every need catered to. Vegas offers something to every adult, all fueled by gambling.

Actually given the house edge in all games, the wonder is that any people walk away with mroe money than they came in with. Read my signature ;)

Quote: boymimbo

The great thing about Vegas is that there is no other place like it on earth. People leave a loser but still want to come back for the very unique experience that it offers. And the funny thing about Vegas is that you can have a very "low end" experience by staying and playing at the Tropicana or Circus Circus, eating $1.00 shrimp cocktails and $10 buffets (comped, of course), and watching the free shows in front of the Bellagio and Mirage, say, while a mile away, you can experience a very "high end" experience at the Four Seasons or Encore, eating gourmet dinners by the best chefs in the world, having your every need catered to. Vegas offers something to every adult, all fueled by gambling.

Yes, indeed. Moreover, you can pay for the low-end experience and have some of the high-end experience as well. Regardless of where you're staying, you can freely wonder into the Wynn, Caesars Palace, Mandalay Bay, etc and play or dine there if you wish. So long as you pay for your play and behave yourself, you're ok.

Also amazing is the amount of stuff that's free. The Bellagio fountains and the Mirage "volcano," but also the architecture and fountains of the Forum Shops, the Venetian hotel (those ceilings in the lobby are incredible), the miniature NY skyline at NYNY, the bird and fish "habitat" in the Flamingo, the Fremont Street Experience, etc. (and yes, the cocktail waitresses almost anywhere)

There are also plenty of cheap attractions like the Statosphere tower, the Eiffel tower, formerly and hopefully again soon the Star Trek ride and museum, rollercoasters, aquariums (I know that's bad Latin), assorted exhibits, etc. The more expensive evening shows, many of which are unique to Las Vegas and immitated elsewhere. Various museums most people don't even know about (I'm planning to visit the Pinball and Atomic Testing museums nest trip). I can't speak as to the strip clubs, hookers or night clubs. And of course the regional attractions like Hoover Dam.

I call Vegas an unorganized amusement park for adults. All that's missing is a nightly fireworks show :)

There's so much to do in Vegas that gambling would seem only a minor part. Of course it's the major part and, frankly, the reason Vegas exists at all as a tourist Mecca rather than a sleepy train stop in the desert (if trains still stop there). On my first trip I didn't even gamble more than a couple of hundred bucks. The casinos were just one more novelty among many.

But I do like to gamble, otherwise I wouldn't return every year. But gambling should be seen as a service rendered for money, like other forms of entertainment. You pay to see a movie, you pay to attend a football game, you pay to play BJ or craps, too. The difference is the price of gambling varies a lot and you have a chance to win money.

As far as I know Vegas is unique. No other place I know has so many large buildings, humongous billboards which are also extravagant in some cases (see the video billboard outside the Wynn), neon and light signs that surely consume more electricity than many cities, the ubiquitous buffets, the mix of all sorts of people from all over the world.