FiliusBruce
FiliusBruce
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May 18th, 2023 at 12:54:51 AM permalink
I just ran into this video by the Wired magazine, which has Yuchun Lee answer casino odds questions from Twitter, Wizard-style:

https://youtu.be/3kGlk1E_Cnw

I believe he makes a lot of (small?) mistakes in his answers. See how many mistakes you can find!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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aceside
May 18th, 2023 at 6:09:51 AM permalink
Quote: FiliusBruce

I just ran into this video by the Wired magazine, which has Yuchun Lee answer casino odds questions from Twitter, Wizard-style:

https://youtu.be/3kGlk1E_Cnw

I believe he makes a lot of (small?) mistakes in his answers. See how many mistakes you can find!

link to original post

-at about 25 seconds in he disses craps with odds as opposed to baccarat for the unskilled player. I suppose you could claim learning how to get the overall odds in Craps below 1% takes study, sort of a skill I guess. Minor

- at 50 seconds makes it seem that AP-ing BJ is a snap. Misleading.

- at 3:50 repeating the casino cheating at slots story is a little much. Meh.

- at 7:06 he indicates he thinks the martingale would work if the casino didnít set up table limits. Major.

- at 7:30 he relates a way of using free odds and avoiding the house edge [back-betting only]. He should mention that the casino would frown on this. Meh.

- at 10:36 he takes a shortcut on explaining the probability of so many reds in a row in roulette, technically incorrect. Meh.

- at 10:55 he gives an odd answer to why people gamble. Meh

- at 12:15 says splitting and doubling down are the same thing [mathematically I guess]. I donít think so, and sort of odd to say. Follow up comments for surrender may be too simplified? Minor

So I may have missed something, and I'm probably not being very hard on him
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
aceside
aceside
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odiousgambit
May 18th, 2023 at 6:54:08 AM permalink
I just watched this but couldnít pick out any mistakes. From your above post, I suddenly discovered that there are still so many of them. You are a very good researcher!
aceside
aceside
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May 18th, 2023 at 7:12:39 AM permalink
Iíve been a gambler for some time but have never been a mathematician. Is the quoted statement mathematically incorrect?

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: FiliusBruce


- at 7:06 he indicates he thinks the martingale would work if the casino didnít set up table limits. Major.

teliot
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MukkeUP84
May 18th, 2023 at 7:18:04 AM permalink
Quote: FiliusBruce

I just ran into this video by the Wired magazine, which has Yuchun Lee answer casino odds questions from Twitter, Wizard-style:

https://youtu.be/3kGlk1E_Cnw

I believe he makes a lot of (small?) mistakes in his answers. See how many mistakes you can find!
link to original post

Wired magazine contacted me for this video and I had about a 30-minute test interview with them about at the end of March where they read Twitter questions to me to see how I would respond. They said they were looking for a casino mathematician. I guess I wasn't sexy or young enough, but I was certainly 100% accurate. A big FU from Wired to the truth.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 18th, 2023 at 7:45:06 AM permalink
- 3:40 It's not a dial, but I understand it's a convenient metaphor. Technical pedantry.
May the cards fall in your favor.
TinMan
TinMan
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May 18th, 2023 at 9:31:25 AM permalink
I watched the first few mins and then turned it off. I donít think they get that being a BJ card counting AP doesnít automatically make you an expert on all things casino related.

At the start they ask for the best casino game. He says baccarat and says for every $100 you bet, you lose 50 cents. Thatís just wrong. Itís more like $1 ($1.06/$1.24).

Also, even basic strategy BJ on a 3/2 table is better than baccarat. Youíre looking at somewhere from 0.3-0.8% house edge depending on decks and rules.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 18th, 2023 at 10:21:42 AM permalink
Quote: TinMan

I watched the first few mins and then turned it off. I donít think they get that being a BJ card counting AP doesnít automatically make you an expert on all things casino related.

At the start they ask for the best casino game. He says baccarat and says for every $100 you bet, you lose 50 cents. Thatís just wrong. Itís more like $1 ($1.06/$1.24).

missed that one

Quote:

Also, even basic strategy BJ on a 3/2 table is better than baccarat. Youíre looking at somewhere from 0.3-0.8% house edge depending on decks and rules.
link to original post

well he does qualify it by saying 'unskilled' player, and knowing BS would be a skill

Quote: aceside

Iíve been a gambler for some time but have never been a mathematician. Is the quoted statement mathematically incorrect?

Quote: odiousgambit


- at 7:06 he indicates he thinks the martingale would work if the casino didnít set up table limits. Major.
link to original post

Players do imagine that it would work for a billionaire, as he puts it. Many will argue it works on the basis of logic, as they see it, as opposed to math.

Math arguments can get pretty deep and over my head, but the way I look at it is this: the argument that it works [if no limits] seems to be due to the appeal of getting back to even on the double-or-nothing bet. The appeal dies pretty quick when you note that it is just a way of betting more when you are losing. That it can get you back to even is really immaterial. Furthermore, the math says the more you bet against a house edge, the more you increase the expected loss. For the martingale to work, this law would have to be violated. Guess what? In the long run it won't be violated

So that's my two cents with 4th grade math thrown in
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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May 18th, 2023 at 10:31:33 AM permalink
I started watching but couldn't continue.

I've always been annoyed with the "lose 50 cents" per hour of play, or lose $15 for every $100 in slot play. It's from the perspective of the game itself, not how actual people gamble. Sure it's true if you play the same game for several hundreds of hours, but that doesn't sound good on video.

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