Equanimity
Equanimity
Joined: Aug 12, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
August 12th, 2017 at 3:08:07 PM permalink
Hi All,

This is my first post here, but I've been lurking for a bit. Seeing the comments of experienced players has been very helpful in my journey.

I am posting to ask for your help in analyzing a side bet which I have recently seen show up at a Casino I visit sometimes.
I am aware that there are several bust-related BJ sidebets covered on Wizard of Odds, but I did not see this one.

The bet is as follows, for anyone unfamiliar:

You place your wager in a side-bet box prior to any cards being dealt. Min $1 Max $50.
It pays out according to the pay table below, if the dealer busts on his THIRD card only. If he doesn't bust, or busts with 4+ cards you lose your wager.

Pay Table (dealer busts on THIRD CARD ONLY):
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dealer busts with a 6 pays 15-to-1.

Dealer busts with a 7 pays 9-to-1.

Dealer busts with an 8 pays 7-to-1.

Dealer busts with a 9 pays 5-to-1.

Dealer busts with a 10 pays 3-to-1.

Dealer busts with suited 8, 8, 8 pays 200-to-1.

Dealer busts with colored 8, 8, 8 pays 50-to-1.

Dealer busts on later than third card, or does not bust = player loses the bet , as stated above.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I strongly expect this bet is countable, and I have found two articles online to that effect.

It seems I'm not allowed to post links, but if you google "bust it blackjack sidebet" they're on the first page.
One at Discount Gambling, and one at AP heat/888Casino. If a mod could add the links in that would be great.

After reviewing the articles I'm not totally satisfied with the answers.
What I really need to see is the whole story of variance, SCORE, R.O.R., Expected win over time, etc to decide whether this bet is worth counting, and what kind of bankroll would be required.

I made a hearty attempt to run this sidebet myself in CVData, but the numbers I got seem to show a lower win/hr than is suggested in the articles. It's quite possible I ran the sim incorrectly, but the discrepancy does cast a doubt in my mind on the reliability of the articles in the first place.

If anyone has advantage-played this side bet, would you please weigh in and share your experience.
Or, if the Wizard himself has some math to share even better.

Thank you!

- Equanimity
Last edited by: Equanimity on Aug 12, 2017
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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August 12th, 2017 at 8:04:06 PM permalink
Similar to the Bust Bonus. I would be more inclined to analyze this one if you told me where you found it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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  • Posts: 1484
August 12th, 2017 at 8:13:52 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Similar to the Bust Bonus. I would be more inclined to analyze this one if you told me where you found it.

I have seen that bet at Tropicana in Atlantic city.
The mountain is tall but the grass grows on top of the mountain.
Equanimity
Equanimity
Joined: Aug 12, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
August 12th, 2017 at 9:06:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Similar to the Bust Bonus. I would be more inclined to analyze this one if you told me where you found it.



I personally saw it on a recent trip to Canada, at a Casino in southern Ontario and I would guess that others in the area would likely have it as well, as they are almost all managed by the same governing body.
I've pm'd you the exact name of the Casino, and if you do make an analysis and want to include that exact location detail that's fine - I just didn't want to post it here under my name.

I've also read it used be offered at the Palazzo, as well as Texas Station in Las Vegas. Perhaps it still is.

I forgot to mention it is dealt from an 8 deck shoe, with 2 decks cut off (75% pen). Sometimes 2.5 or 1.5 decks cut off depending on the dealer.

Thank you,

- Equanimity
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 1685
August 13th, 2017 at 2:30:55 AM permalink
It's already on WoO https://wizardofodds.com/games/double-attack-blackjack/#toc-BustitSideBet .
Edit to add: that is with a Spanish deck. I have a spread sheet at http://miplet.net/blackjack/ just download bustit.xlsb You can edit the pay table and deck composition.
Last edited by: miplet on Aug 13, 2017
Equanimity
Equanimity
Joined: Aug 12, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
August 13th, 2017 at 3:47:24 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

It's already on WoO /games/double-attack-blackjack/#toc-BustitSideBet .
Edit to add: that is with a Spanish deck. I have a spread sheet at /blackjack/ just download bustit.xlsb You can edit the pay table and deck composition.



Oh wow - I really thought I had looked I thoroughly, Thank you!
I'll review your excel table and the page.

- Equanimity

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