Buffalo Blackjack in CO

I know a player in BlackHawk that spent this last weekend crushing a Buffalo Blackjack table.
He did it by playing the "Magic 21" side bet (matching his blackjack wager).
His strategy was simple, he hit everything 19 and lower, regardless of what the dealer had showing. He always split 10's to try for 21.
Obviously he busted more often than not, but would get big payoffs for catching 21.
(7-card 21's pay 25-1.)

I haven't been able to find odds for this strategy anywhere, I only can find odds for playing the "bust bonus" side bet which this player was not using.

Here is a Wizard of Vegas thread about those bets. Also, here is a rack card for the bet.

What are the bet size limits, is the table H17 or S17, and is this the pay table?
player BJ 6:1
2 card 21 (after splitting) 6:1
3 card 21 8:1
4 card 21 9:1
5 & 6 card 21 10:1
7+ card 21 25:1

I will try to find a rough strategy (based on infinite decks) to minimize the loss assuming equal main and side bets.

The dealer hits soft 17, and that is the correct pay table. The table uses 6 decks.
I saw the previous thread but it looks like the focus went straight to the "bust bonus" side bet.

This player was betting $100 (max bet in CO) for the main wager as well as on the Magic 21 and playing 2-4 spots per hand. He had huge wins on 4 consecutive days by playing ultra aggressive and hitting until he got 21 or busted. He always split 10s.

Was he always playing the max bet and playing late in the shoe?

I'm still hoping to hear how splitting affects this bet before taking time to analyze it.

Always played max bet from beginning to end of the shoe.

Same pay table applies after splitting.

if i get two aces and i've got $100 on the main bet, $100 on the side and i want to split my A's, do i need to add an additional $100 for the side bet split?

if not, what happens if i get a face on one ace, and a non-face on the other. i've got two hands, one with 21, one without.

@wizard , it sounds like this one might want to stay quiet for a little bit :D

Quote: StrangeMage

if i get two aces and i've got $100 on the main bet, $100 on the side and i want to split my A's, do i need to add an additional $100 for the side bet split?...

Unless the rules have changed, you would need an additional $100 for the side bet split. This despite the original rule that the side bet had to be an even amount, which implied that the side bet would be split in half with 1/2 being put on each hand.

Does Colorado still have this 21 Magic side bet on Buffalo Blackjack?

Quote: ChesterDog

Unless the rules have changed, you would need an additional $100 for the side bet split. This despite the original rule that the side bet had to be an even amount, which implied that the side bet would be split in half with 1/2 being put on each hand.

Does Colorado still have this 21 Magic side bet on Buffalo Blackjack?

Not sure. As of last week, casinos were limiting the amount of the bet and some told me they were removing it soon. Currently, no casino offers it for $100.

Yes, you must also match your side bet on a split.

Okay, I'm ready to let this cat out of the bag. I have worked hard on this analysis and kindly thank CrystalMath as well as a couple non-members for working with me on this behind the scenes.

The good news is that under the rule where the player could bet equally on the blackjack and 21 Magic bet, the player had an advantage of 6.82%, relative to the blackjack wager. For example, if the player bet $100 on both bets, he could expect to win $6.82. These were the rules being following in Colorado for years. However, as I understand it, it didn't start to get pounded by advantage players until recently.

The bad news is that this play is pretty much dead. I have heard everybody has put a maximum bet on this of $25 or less. Every property in Colorado lowered the limits on this at about the same time around two weeks ago.

I imagine there will be some discussion about how this game got through. It is my understanding that Galaxy Gaming, the game maker, advised the casinos taking the game to cap the 21 Magic bet at 20% of the blackjack bet. This advice was not followed in Colorado. Under this rule there is a 3.84% house advantage if making the full 21 Magic Bet.

Please see my new page Buffalo Blackjack for all the details.

Okay, let the chips fall where they may.

Thank you Wizard. I very much expected a positive player EV with a 100% side bet on Magic 21, but I also expected that the side bet was so broken that it would be pulled or nerf-ed before I could get there. Calculating a strategy like this is a lot of work, so I decided to not worry about it and just read your version whenever you posted it.

What a hot mess this was.

Nerd moment One of the most counter-intuitive parts of your 100% side-bet strategy is that the math says that you should split an 8-8 pair versus a 9 but hit an 8-8 pair (as a 16) versus a 2. "How could that be?" I wondered. Then I realized it is due to the rule that the Magic 21 sidebet only pays when your 21 is a winner, i.e., when the dealer does not also make a 21. And
- with a 9 upcard, the dealer makes a 21 with a frequency of 6.1%
- with a 2 upcard, the dealer makes a 21 with a frequency of 11.8%

So that 5.7% higher probability of losing the large Magic 21 payout (by pushing) when you make a 21 is why you don't split 8's against a 2, but do split them vs a 9.

You're welcome. A huge amount of credit belongs to CrystalMath who provided the meat on my page for the game. Another anonymous non-active member was also very helpful. I only got as far as an infinite deck analysis. Creating a strategy for games like this is very complicated and tedious. I tried to modify my own blackjack program for this game but never finished. For anybody who may have missed me, I was in Europe July 11-20, otherwise I probably would have finished it. Anyway, why reinvent the wheel?

Yes, a very strange strategy. I think the difficulty in analyzing it and non-intuitive nature of the strategy may have been why a juicy advantage play was there in plain sight for years. It is actually still there. I hear the Ameristar is still taking $25 bets on it, making it worth about $140 an hour.

I think the story on this is just beginning. Stay tuned. I think this thread is going to get more heat.

I think it's actually $20 now at Ameristar. Also, this strategy slows down the game, so the earning potential is even less. And...beware the variance.

Quote: Wizard

You're welcome. A huge amount of credit belongs to CrystalMath who provided the meat on my page for the game. Another anonymous non-active member was also very helpful. I only got as far as an infinite deck analysis. Creating a strategy for games like this is very complicated and tedious. I tried to modify my own blackjack program for this game but never finished. For anybody who may have missed me, I was in Europe July 11-20, otherwise I probably would have finished it. Anyway, why reinvent the wheel?

Yes, a very strange strategy. I think the difficulty in analyzing it and non-intuitive nature of the strategy may have been why a juicy advantage play was there in plain sight for years. It is actually still there. I hear the Ameristar is still taking $25 bets on it, making it worth about $140 an hour.

I think the story on this is just beginning. Stay tuned. I think this thread is going to get more heat.

Mike, I think you know I respect you for all you have done to help players but I am wondering if you are almost looking for grief/ controversy/ whatever as this is the 2nd time you have asked for it on this thread. So yea, I'll put it out there, what is the benefit of even exposing this if you believe some are still making money off it as it appears some would be at $140 an hour?

Maybe I missing your big picture but a good amount of the best posters here as you know are APers and it seems you f'd with their living on this deal. And more so, even if those working this are not posters here, what were they doing to you to risk ending the play?

Maybe it comes down to a bigger debate of which side are people on. If you are getting paid to analyze games for a casino, of course it is your job to explain the numbers to them. But in this case and I would assume any game with a players advantage, they hired someone to do the numbers and either ignored them or made a mistake. So where is it your job to inform them later?

Not saying you did it, but doesn't it put you in a position to be able to bribe a casino to let them know you know why they are getting beat on a play? Of course that would hurt your credibility, but would help your wallet.

I guess this is what you are expecting but it would be nice to know why you are doing this?

This play is all but dead already. Two weeks ago the casinos were allowing $100 maximum bets. However, the cat is now out of the bag. From what I hear the all the APs have cleared out as most casinos either removed the game or dropped the maximum bet to $5 or so. Whether I mentioned it or not, I predict the Ameristar will change the rules or remove the game any day now. If I let helped get some members in there before the plug is pulled, then I make no apologies. I'm just giving information that is well known already.