wallethalffull
wallethalffull
Joined: Jan 17, 2016
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January 17th, 2016 at 1:33:38 PM permalink
Regardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.? For example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 17th, 2016 at 3:54:10 PM permalink
Quote: wallethalffull

Regardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.? For example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?

The best EV? You can find Full Pay VP that's over 100%.

On table games you would have to search for good BJ rules.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 17th, 2016 at 4:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

The best EV?



No - he wants the bet that has the best chance of winning, even if the EV is terrible. For example, what if there was a bet where you bet $1000, and won $1 99% of the time but lost the 1000 the other 1%? That would be a 99% "chance of winning" but the EV is -90.1%

Also, I am assuming that "winning" means "making money"; otherwise, covering all 37 numbers would be 100% "successful". Betting on both pass and don't pass in craps doesn't count either, as there's no way to "win;" the best you can do is break even.
ahiromu
ahiromu
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January 17th, 2016 at 5:00:18 PM permalink
Lay the 4 or 10 in craps. A penny slot may have a higher chance of getting SOMETHING back from a spin, but since it doesn't result in a net profit, I don't think it counts.

Edit: Oh, I didn't actually read your question, no I'm pretty sure betting almost every number in roulette is the best for this.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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January 17th, 2016 at 5:12:43 PM permalink
pfffffffffft.

bet *every* number in roulette. You win every time and you get short-paid every time
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
djatc
djatc
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January 17th, 2016 at 5:20:49 PM permalink
Tease the hell of a favorite at the sportsbook
Pats +15 vs browns
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wallethalffull
wallethalffull
Joined: Jan 17, 2016
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January 21st, 2016 at 4:43:29 PM permalink
Correct. Even if EV is terrible. You aren't playing over the long term you are just playing one iteration of the game, be it a spin, a roll, a hand, etc. And also correct, that I am asking for the best chance of a profitable win. Betting all 37 numbers in roulette would not count. Thanks for the replies.
Tanko
Tanko
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January 21st, 2016 at 4:57:15 PM permalink
Quote: wallethalffull

Regardless of house edge or risk, which casino game offers the best % chance of winning on 1 single bet, dice roll, card hand, spin, etc.?



Baccarat.

The probability of Banker winning a hand is 50.7%.
TomG
TomG
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January 21st, 2016 at 5:05:25 PM permalink
Quote: wallethalffull

For example, betting on 35 numbers for 1 European roulette spin gives you a 94.59% chance of winning (35/37). Is there any casino game that offers a single bet with a higher % chance of winning?



Spurs money line has a better than 95% chance tonight*. Saturday there will be a few college games with even higher chances of winning

(*Suns +16.5 is the better bet, however)
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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January 21st, 2016 at 7:05:26 PM permalink
In reality if that is the case bet every number in roulette except 27-28-29 and you will have a 90plus percent chance of winning 1 chip if you place 1 chip on every number but those
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