Card counting system for people with poor short term memory

Like most people, I've found that it's pretty easy to count a particular hand, but it's really hard to maintain a running count over a series of hands, let alone for an entire 6-deck shoe. So recently I've been following a simplified system that seems to work. I calculate the count for all the cards played in a particular hand. If it's zero or negative, I just bet the minimum on the next hand. If it's positive, I bet 50% more. So on a $10 table, I'll bet either $10 or $15, depending on whether the count for the previous hand was negative or positive.

(You can imagine a slightly more sophisticated variation on this, where you bet even more if you get a series of positive-count hands...)

I suspect that this system reduces the house edge by a little bit, but I don't have the analysis tools required to figure out how much effect it has, and whether it's enough to tilt the odds in the player's favor, assuming one sticks to basic strategy.

Does anyone have access to the analysis tools to figure out if this really works?

I can see quite a few flaws with your "system", which is not to say that it isn't a slight improvement over basic strategy.

1. If the shoe was positive enough so that it was +EV for the player, you would only be betting more than the minimum roughly half the time. This would be worse, obviously, than KNOWING the count and continuing to bet big until it dropped.

2. If the shoe was negative, you would be increasing your bet roughly half the time, when you would want to be ALWAYS betting the minimum in that situation. Again, worse than KNOWING the count, and betting accordingly.

Your system does have the benefit that you will, over the long haul, be betting more in positive decks than in negative ones--but that said, the difference won't be nearly enough to do you any good. The best scenario is where the deck gets gradually more and more positive; in that case, you are betting your maximum in the most favorable situation. However, whenever the count "levels off", but stays positive, your strategy costs you money.

If you truly don't want to keep a running count, I suggest a modification. Keep a running count of the number of "positive" or "negative" DEALS. If the deal-count is +2 or greater, bet your maximum. If not, bet the minimum. This is obviously less accurate than a running count of the CARDS, but it will tend to get you putting your big bets, and your little bets as well, out when you should.

Oh, and no counting system will be effective unless the "big" bet is at LEAST 3X the "small" bet. So you need to bet $10-30.

Thanks mkl. I agree with all of the flaws that you point out! With a super-simplified system like this, there clearly will be times when you're betting the wrong amount, for example when the deck is overall positive but you just saw a negative deal.

And your modification is a good one, as it is more likely to approach the results of "real" card counting.

Still, I think it would be interesting to know how effective this system is. I play in PA, where the rules are very liberal and the house advantage is very small, and it wouldn't take much to eliminate the house advantage entirely.

It's sounds silly, but when I was starting out counting cards, I used my fingers to keep track of the count between hands or shoes.

It's really easy if you wear a coat - just put your hand(s) in your pocket (pants pocket works, too) and keep the count on your fingers. If you have the dexterity, you can even do this with your toes. It would be impossible for the dealer or cameras to see you doing this, and, besides, if you are just betting red chips, they won't care anyway.

After enough real life practice, you won't need this trick anymore.

There's a cool trick for counting up to 16 on one hand. I learned it when I was in India a long time ago, visiting with a friend who was studying Indian classic music. When classical music listeners want to keep track of the rhythm in a raga, they use their thumb to touch the 16 "hinge" points on the opposite 4 fingers one at a time, starting with the base of the index finger, then the 1st knuckle, the 2nd knuckle, and the tip, then moving on to the middle, ring and pinky. That way they can keep the beat for up to 16 beats per measure.

So maybe this can work for card counting :) Hold the hand up for positive counts, down for negative counts, and presto, you've got a range of +16 to -16!

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

To keep a full running count isnt that hard. It could be for others especially if they get distracted fairly easy. Here is how I learned to count. For a face up game and you first start a shoe, IGNORE the first card dealt to the players and the dealer. Start your count as the second card is placed on the players first card and count them as a 2 card pattern. This takes some practice but in no time anybody can do this. Doing it this way, you can just ignore patterns that add to zero and skip them all together. Plus its faster and less tiring. Next count the dealers up card. Follow that by the hit cards as the players take them as necessary. Last count the dealers hole-card and any subsequent hit cards he/she may take. All you have to do is carry your final "running count" number over to the start of the next hand and continue. A face down game is a little bit trickier but heres how to learn. For a face down game, first start by counting your two cards. Next count the dealers up card. Third, count all hit cards the players may take. If the two original cards are tossed in if they bust or if they doubled or split, count them next. Next count the dealers hole-card and any hit cards he/she may take. Last you count the players original two cards that were tuck that didn't bust. Then just start the next hand where you left off. All this sounds like a lot but it only takes practice just like anything else.
Me personally, I dont even convert to a true count except for a few play variations or to use insurance. You can buy blackjack shoes from ebay or other sites and I suggest getting 8 decks of cards and just practice with until you feel you can play without errors in a casino setting. I did this at home with the tv on, kids running around (all for distractions) for over a year before I felt comfortable playing and counting. I keep track of my wins and losses on a calculator because I wanted to make sure all this worked plus I enjoyed it.

Back in the 80's when I was counting full-time, I was constantly debating with myself whether the -0.5% that you got in a shoe game (-0.71% if it was six-deck) was compensated for by the much greater ease of counting a face-up game. Of course, that question soon became moot as single-deck with decent rules became largely a thing of the past (this happened way before 6:jive). I finally concluded that the shoe game was easier to beat, because although the waits for shoes to become positive could be interminable, the positive shoes lasted longer than a positive single deck would have. I also adopted the counting method you suggest--I counted pairs of cards, which speeded up the process immensely. If the guy next to me had been dealt, say, King-5, I just counted his hand as "nothing" or "neutral" and moved on to the next. Similarly, Jack-8 was simply "-1", not, "-1+0", or "-1, -1" (however I would express a running count).

Gradually, I learned to simply sweep the board after all the hands were dealt. It got to the point where, in the few seconds while the dealer took her hole card and the next card was dealt, I had a "photographic" running count. It wasn't that difficult.