pacomartin
pacomartin
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June 9th, 2010 at 1:27:19 PM permalink


April's results show a 10.7% increase in baccarat over a year ago. This is now 12 months in a row with a baccarat increase (highlighted by red arrows on the graph).

But the last two months when seen in historical context are not as impressive. March has been a historically low baccarat month for the last several years. The jump in April 2010 only put it back in line with the historical returns 2006-2008.

The rest of the games and slots are still doing poorly, although blackjack may have finally bottomed out.

The rest of Clark county which does not have baccarat is still in free-fall.

As most of you know, baccarat has been saving the strip for the last year. If it is succumbing to the newest competition from Asia then Vegas may be in trouble. Gaming may stabilize at these very low levels.


Relative levels are important Macau is average about $1.5 billion a month in baccarat revenue. That kind of makes the baccarat jump this month by $5.6 million to $58 million look like chump change.

The single Sands Marina casino in Singapore has not reported any numbers, except to say that it is exceeding expectations. This one casino is likely to exceed baccarat revenue for all of Las Vegas consistently month after month.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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June 9th, 2010 at 4:35:57 PM permalink

Running 12 month totals of the games on the strip. Blackjack has shown a small improvement for two months. The table games haver leveled off over the last few months.

Baccarat is leveling off. It may be that the spectacular gains buoyed by the grand opening of ARIA and the spectacular Chinese New Year's may not be repeatable. New casinos opening up, and in particular the tax advantage of bringing high rollers to Vegas has now been lost to Singapore.

Sheldon Adelson who was knocked down from #3 richest man in America (in 2007) to #26 (in 2009) may climb back up to his previous position.

TRIVIA regarding publicity photo with Sinatra for baccarat in 1960. It does appear that they played baccarat with cash all through the '60s and only introduced chips for the game in the '70s.
likeplayingcrapsandbj
likeplayingcrapsandbj
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June 9th, 2010 at 4:51:40 PM permalink
Great pictures, look at all the cash. Was it really that great back then or do people only remember it that way?
Last Man at the Table
pacomartin
pacomartin
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June 10th, 2010 at 1:50:02 AM permalink
The shot with Sinatra is a staged publicity photo taken roughly 1960 when they were introducing the game from Cuban casinos. It think it was always a high stakes games. Recent attempts to popularize it with mini-baccarat have not been very successful.

I read a quote from somewhere that they played the game with cash up to the 1970's in Vegas. The picture from James Bond Thunderball was roughly 1965, and it shows plaques. I know that scene was shot in Cafe Martinique in the Bahamas, so I assume the use of plaques is realistic.
likeplayingcrapsandbj
likeplayingcrapsandbj
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June 10th, 2010 at 6:07:49 AM permalink
Question, how can a player take advantage of the baccarrat boom "cooling" off in Las Vegas. Aside from just playing the game, will there be a period where the casinos cater to new bacarrat players?
Last Man at the Table
DrEntropy
DrEntropy
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June 10th, 2010 at 10:35:23 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin



The rest of Clark county which does not have baccarat is still in free-fall.



I am interested in how the casinos like the M and GVR are doing... does anyone know what section of the Gambling Revenue Report those are under? Boulder Strip? Balance of County? I searched all over the GCB site and could not find a list of who is under what geographic section, or where the lines are drawn... any pointers are appreciated!!
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
pacomartin
pacomartin
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June 10th, 2010 at 10:35:38 AM permalink
Quote: likeplayingcrapsandbj

Question, how can a player take advantage of the baccarat boom "cooling" off in Las Vegas. Aside from just playing the game, will there be a period where the casinos cater to new baccarat players?



(1) If you have money then as a player I would try to go in June and take advantage of the infrastructure built recently to attract the mid to high level baccarat player. In particular Hard Rock Casino is very anxious to court the mid level baccarat player with their new luxury suites and four tables.

(2) As an investor I would avoid some of this hype about MGM-MIRAGE. The CEO has been bragging that they have captured about 50% of the high limit baccarat player market. I think that the money is going to stay in Asia where Sands and Wynn will profit
likeplayingcrapsandbj
likeplayingcrapsandbj
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June 10th, 2010 at 11:01:11 AM permalink
What is a mid level player?
Last Man at the Table
pacomartin
pacomartin
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July 18th, 2010 at 3:46:22 PM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

I am interested in how the casinos like the M and GVR are doing... does anyone know what section of the Gambling Revenue Report those are under? Boulder Strip? Balance of County? I searched all over the GCB site and could not find a list of who is under what geographic section, or where the lines are drawn... any pointers are appreciated!!



Both M and Green Valley Ranch (GVR) are under the Boulder Strip Section in the reporting. The reason you can't find it on the GCB web site is the information is considered confidential. I had to break their code. The GCB is forbidden by law to reveal financial information that may lead to identification of the revenue for an individual casino. Many people consider this law obsolete. Almost every other state publishes revenue for individual casinos.


The reasoning is that South Point and Silverton Casino are not in the city limits of Henderson so they are considered Balance of County while M Resort and GVR are both just barely inside the city limits of Henderson.

It is often difficult to see how these newer casinos are doing since the numbers include Boulder Station, Sunset Station, and Sam's Town and a number of older casinos which are dropping in revenue.


The choices often seem somewhat arbitrary. Boyd's Gold Coast is considered a strip casino, while Boyd's Orleans Casino is considered "Balance of the county". Palace Station is considered a strip casino while Stratosphere is considered "Downtown Las Vegas".

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