Why are you an AP?

From another thread:

Quote:

[ ] skilled programmer giving programming advice ITT

[ x ] failed AP giving programming advice ITT

The context doesn't matter, but what's the with the continual scorn regarding being a "failed AP"? Is being a successful AP something to strive for? It seems to me that there are very, very few people who have the ability to be a successful AP who, with that ability, couldn't make more money elsewhere (and avoid both bankroll risk and emphysema). I get the arguments about personal freedom, but there are other jobs that have more flexibility and don't have bankroll risk. So I guess the question is "if you're a full-time AP, or are trying to be, why?"

I was a pokerbumb. After getting hit over the head with the UIGEA just as I felt I was reaching my stride, then finding out I wasn't as good at live games, and then watching live game quality deteriorate; I decided poker wasn't a good long term choice.

But before that, I had started grad school just as tech magazines started showing middle class Indians living on $6k/year, and since Tech had already failed me once, graduating into the '01 downturn, I was scared of building up debt. And I knew I was good at games, so I thought poker might be an alternative.

For my part, I'm not trying to be a full-time AP, but it is something I might do when my wife is out of school and nursing full-time.

The answer for why I would want to be a full-time AP and why I am a recreational AP now is the same answer:

I enjoy gambling, but do not enjoy a long-term expectation of losing on my total action. Therefore, if I strictly control how much I devote to negative expectation games and devote more money to playing at an advantage, then my lifetime gambling will have a positive expectation and I will be able to do something I enjoy doing at a theoretical (if not actual) profit.

In other words, I gamble at an advantage so I can gamble at all otherwise, I would probably almost never gamble.

Quote: MathExtremist

So I guess the question is "if you're a full-time AP, or are trying to be, why?"

In addition, why do AP's think that what they do is what everyone else should want to do? I've tried to figure this out for years.

Just go over to bj21 and see how often people freely insult others and are cheered for it. Look how the OP you quoted followed me around. Read how highly they view themselves and how righteous they are about what they do. The same goes on on every board I've visited (save this one, thanks to its tight moderation) that hosts APs. To me it appears that many APs are angry at the world and are taking it out on casinos and others. Not all APs, of course, act this way. I knew (and know) many extraordinary people on the AP side. But enough do to make the community look sociopathic, spiteful and dysfunctional. As a former AP, that was my experience from the inside as well.

[edit added]
I respect many APs and always teach that respect in my trainings. I never disclose the names or identities of those APs I knew, keeping a promise I made long ago. I frequently remind those on the casino side about the difference between cheating and AP. I talk about the law, what is legal and what isn't. In many ways, I am an advocate for APs. Many of the best APs are creative and deep thinkers, as well as brilliant and multi-talented individuals, who I greatly respect and am honored to know.

Quote: teliot

The same goes on on every board I've visited (save this one, thanks to its tight moderation) that hosts APs.

I appreciate the compliment, but I take exactly 0 of the credit for that. I believe that the AP's we have who post here are just genuinely good people.

deleted

Quote: Mission146

In other words, I gamble at an advantage so I can gamble at all otherwise, I would probably almost never gamble.

Okay then, do you enjoy gambling at an advantage more than everything else you might do for money? Daytrading, for example, or being an independent consultant in a field of your choosing?

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: Mission146

In other words, I gamble at an advantage so I can gamble at all otherwise, I would probably almost never gamble.

Okay then, do you enjoy gambling at an advantage more than everything else you might do for money? Daytrading, for example, or being an independent consultant in a field of your choosing?

I know more about gambling than I do just about any other subject besides Hotel Management, and in addition to the fact that Hotel Management is my actual job, I don't like it as much as gambling.

I'm not sure about others but I feel a kind of isolated genius when I sit down at the tables... especially when the edge is considerable.

deleted

I think AP is different from most jobs in that it can be very adversarial (the casino is trying to bar you) and the reward is immediate. You don't get a check at the end of the month directly deposited to your bank. Each time you win or lose chips are exchanged. I think being around cash/chips make it different. The immediate gratification of winning or losing heightens the "work" experience.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I had one like this two days ago. Ten play, $1.00 DDB with five 3x multipliers. I ended up with one lousy high pair and it wasn't on a multiplier. So I lost $45 on that one play.

The multipliers were all over the place on mine, the dealt hand was almost certainly a low pair that improved on the few of the hands. I had the Positive Variance of being dealt Jacks on my play, but only two hands improved, one to Trips, but not on a multiplier. The other to Two Pair, bit inconsequential as it paid the same as Jacks.

Quote: MathExtremist

Okay then, do you enjoy gambling at an advantage more than everything else you might do for money? Daytrading, for example, or being an independent consultant in a field of your choosing?

Trade, or consulting (indep or not), or most business commitment, are only available to people with natural social skills: it involves many interactions with other people, and mostly needing your being proactive in creating the encounter (prospection, contact, selling, persuasion, etc.)
Also, it requires an element of willingness to treat those other people as objects of profit for yourself.

Sorry, but most people are NOT good at these things, and / or not willing to interact in this way.

So AP may be a way to use your brains to make money without the feeling that you steal someone (please, don't confuse AP and cheating). It also requires less social skill. No client, no boss, no accountant,...
The other jobs with these characteristics are not usually well-paid. Or when they are, it requires the same social skills only to FIND the right job and convince an employer.

Quote: MathExtremist

From another thread:

Quote:

[ ] skilled programmer giving programming advice ITT

[ x ] failed AP giving programming advice ITT

The context doesn't matter, but what's the with the continual scorn regarding being a "failed AP"? Is being a successful AP something to strive for? It seems to me that there are very, very few people who have the ability to be a successful AP who, with that ability, couldn't make more money elsewhere (and avoid both bankroll risk and emphysema). I get the arguments about personal freedom, but there are other jobs that have more flexibility and don't have bankroll risk. So I guess the question is "if you're a full-time AP, or are trying to be, why?"

It's not so much scorn, but I think it does raise a valid question. If the person giving the advice wasn't able to do it successfully, why would you assume that the advice is any good? It's the old "those who can, do; those who can't, teach".

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It's the old "those who can, do; those who can't, teach".

And those who can't teach, teach gym.

Quote: Rorry

I'm not sure about others but I feel a kind of isolated genius when I sit down at the tables... especially when the edge is considerable.

Although I'm of average intelligence, I totally get that feeling too. But it's more of a most dangerous player in here feeling.

To answer the op: You might have heard it before. You should do what you're passionate about. Looking for an edge and most of the time coming up empty stinks. But the whole AP search is all worthwhile when you finally do strike gold. Feel like a giddy school girl. For me, I like the scouting more than the play. But the most important factor is the money. Yes, the money is why.

Quote: Nareed

I'm sure that's a contradiction in terms. with an advantage then you're not

I don't think it's contradiction at all, if he said he was a recreational, professional gambler that may be a contradiction. You are you are in fact gambling on if you will win or lose. Many Advantage players go broke and you cant always blame poor money management skills. Someone can have a nice advantage and a fair bankroll, and still go broke for many reasons.

Extreme example: You could be playing some 50K 100% loss rebate, where it's almost impossible to lose, and then the casino does not pay you your losses for some reason.

I don't know how anyone who is not an AP can even begin to understand AP. Reading a message board or meeting up with AP's, does not even scratch the surface of what its like to be an AP. There are so many aspects to AP is silly and it's almost impossible to be involved with everything (This is one thing that makes it very fun and exciting). What some people don't realize, not every AP is being talked about on all the forums. Probably only 35% of the plays are talked about.

The real good stuff is often kept in the BOYS CLUB (things you wont even tell your own mother about) and even then no one knows about everything that's going on. Boys clubs are often separated and commingled at the same time.

Take Micky's Jackpot Aces, I don't know anyone who has ever heard about that play until he mentioned it. Eventually things leaks out, but its usually close to over by then.

I know a few people think AP's sit around and grind out some small 1% advantage on video poker and Blackjack all day. (not the diverse ones) Sure a few do and that's the things everyone talks about. Some of Them guys are probably the Grumpy, bitter, Jaded ones(They would probably be the same way in any job they had).

I know quite a few VP grinders who have a blast. They usually have a few different partners and know everyone who plays the same type of things they do. They even see a few different guys one each play. They sit and chat, gossip, talk shop, politics, tell jokes, hang out, have parties together,make side bets, compete, have families and lots of fun. Some travel the country together and take the time to see the sites along the way.

You will never be able answer why people want to be AP's. Why do people WANT to do anything they do? There are so many different reasons and so many different people including Doctors, lawyers, school teachers, real estate agents, stock brokers, Judges, hobos, cab drivers, I know a successful Doctor that has made far more money from AP then being a Doctor. Most people don't really like their job however most AP's do like their job and look they forward to doing it everyday. They want to go to work.

I have meet very few people who wouldn't want to be a Professorial Gambler.

:Reasons people may want to be AP's.

:Money, Comps, Suites, great free food, and other perks like shows.

:Freedom, No real boss, no crappy co workers, not always a slave to a scheduled. No pressure to preform (Other then money) Vacation when you want.
You can do other things to make money.

:Its a challenge and it is what you make it.

:Interesting people from all walks of life, most of them are intelligent with great stories.

:Vegas Baby

:You love to gamble and love the action.

:Others often find it interesting.

:Wizard of Vegas ;)

:Opportunities are endless, Its not some dead end job.

:Things are always changing, new and interesting.

:Doing something most people can't do or cant even understand.

I'm sure the list could go on. As in anything you do in life it has both its ups and downs.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It's not so much scorn, but I think it does raise a valid question. If the person giving the advice wasn't able to do it successfully, why would you assume that the advice is any good?

What advice do I give to my clients that you consider not good advice for my clients? Was it when I answered a client's request for the off-the-top advantage for Ace/Ten steering in a single-deck 6/5 game, which I answered with 100% accuracy by using combinatorial analysis? Was it when I advised a client (earlier today) that there was no possible edge if a player was allowed to play two hands in High Card Flush? Or are you just guessing? Or are you also interested in creating an OT derail, so as to not fully address the original question?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Quote: MathExtremist

From another thread:

Quote:

[ ] skilled programmer giving programming advice ITT

[ x ] failed AP giving programming advice ITT

The context doesn't matter, but what's the with the continual scorn regarding being a "failed AP"? Is being a successful AP something to strive for? It seems to me that there are very, very few people who have the ability to be a successful AP who, with that ability, couldn't make more money elsewhere (and avoid both bankroll risk and emphysema). I get the arguments about personal freedom, but there are other jobs that have more flexibility and don't have bankroll risk. So I guess the question is "if you're a full-time AP, or are trying to be, why?"

It's not so much scorn, but I think it does raise a valid question. If the person giving the advice wasn't able to do it successfully, why would you assume that the advice is any good? It's the old "those who can, do; those who can't, teach".

Mike Tyson's trainer was a lightweight who never fought professionally. Being able to execute and being able to strategize about execution are not necessarily correlated.

Quote: MathExtremist

Mike Tyson's trainer was a lightweight who never fought professionally. Being able to execute and being able to strategize about execution are not necessarily correlated.

My violin teacher is pretty good. She was first violinist in a middle-quality quartet for a while, but you could call her a "failed" violinist because she was never first violin with the LA Philharmonic. Her reasons for stopping her professional career were very personal, but had little to do with her skills. I listen very carefully to her advice and it makes me better.

Quote: teliot

What advice do I give to my clients that you consider not good advice for my clients? Was it when I answered a client's request for the off-the-top advantage for Ace/Ten steering in a single-deck 6/5 game, which I answered with 100% accuracy by using combinatorial analysis? Was it when I advised a client (earlier today) that there was no possible edge if a player was allowed to play two hands in High Card Flush? Or are you just guessing? Or are you also interested in creating an OT derail, so as to not fully address the original question?

I feel that you are an excellent mathematician, and I have no doubt that the math advice that you give is spot-on. In fact, before I take the time to analyze a particular game or play myself, your site is one of the ones that I check to see if the work has already been done for me (discountgambling is the other).

If advantage play was nothing but math, you would have been one of the best APs of all time, and I'd be pretty good, too.

Quote: Mission146

The answer for why I would want to be a full-time AP and why I am a recreational AP now is the same answer:

I enjoy gambling, but do not enjoy a long-term expectation of losing on my total action. Therefore, if I strictly control how much I devote to negative expectation games and devote more money to playing at an advantage, then my lifetime gambling will have a positive expectation and I will be able to do something I enjoy doing at a theoretical (if not actual) profit.

In other words, I gamble at an advantage so I can gamble at all otherwise, I would probably almost never gamble.

Damn Mission, you took the words right out of my mouth! Except that I don't think I would ever pursue it full-time. But as a recreational AP as well, my sentiments mirror yours.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I feel that you are an excellent mathematician, and I have no doubt that the math advice that you give is spot-on. In fact, before I take the time to analyze a particular game or play myself, your site is one of the ones that I check to see if the work has already been done for me (discountgambling is the other).

If advantage play was nothing but math, you would have been one of the best APs of all time, and I'd be pretty good, too.

Thanks for your nice comment about my math. But then, what advice do I give my clients that is not good? That's what I don't get. Maybe you can help me give them better advice 8-)

Quote: AxelWolf

some small 1% advantage

a 1% advantage out there somewhere, consistently, would turn me into an AP

Quote: the wizard

with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

[edits]

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Quote: MathExtremist

From another thread:

Quote:

[ ] skilled programmer giving programming advice ITT

[ x ] failed AP giving programming advice ITT

The context doesn't matter, but what's the with the continual scorn regarding being a "failed AP"? Is being a successful AP something to strive for? It seems to me that there are very, very few people who have the ability to be a successful AP who, with that ability, couldn't make more money elsewhere (and avoid both bankroll risk and emphysema). I get the arguments about personal freedom, but there are other jobs that have more flexibility and don't have bankroll risk. So I guess the question is "if you're a full-time AP, or are trying to be, why?"

It's not so much scorn, but I think it does raise a valid question. If the person giving the advice wasn't able to do it successfully, why would you assume that the advice is any good? It's the old "those who can, do; those who can't, teach".

Mike Tyson's trainer was a lightweight who never fought professionally. Being able to execute and being able to strategize about execution are not necessarily correlated.

Yep, you are right. The problem you have with that comparison is.... Boxing is a physical skill 1st and a mental/strategic skill at a close 2nd. Perhaps it's 50/50.

Mike had the physical skill, but needed to be taught the mental and strategic skill.

If his trainer was a failure with a his own mental and strategic skill, Mike may have failed miserably and would have not been as successful. AP is 90% mental and strategic skill and 10% bankroll= physical. Since consulting does not require any bankroll it becomes 100% mental and strategic. If you have failed at the most important part, whats left?

Quote: teliot

Thanks for your nice comment about my math. But then, what advice do I give my clients that is not good? That's what I don't get. Maybe you can help me give them better advice 8-)

We've been round and round on this. I disagree with your repeated statements that card counting blackjack is not a viable way to make money. I have no idea why you insist on comparing games using the assumption that the max bets are equivalent, even though the max bets offered are not equivalent. You occasionally make corrections but still miss the point (eg, here). If your point is that you need more than a $100 max bet to make money at blackjack, I don't know what you don't just say that. I also think that the shots that you took at DS and his I18 were unnecessary and, to be honest, very unprofessional. If you are going to be a professional then you are going to be held to a higher standard than the posters on this forum. I feel that the title "The not-so-illustrious 18" if your blog post is in extremely poor taste. The originally posted articles (before being edited) were outright attacks.

I also think that your recommendations on how to protect games are a little bit simplistic. Really, this is my main point. You are an excellent mathematician but were not a good AP. It takes one to know one, though. If someone wants to know the edge when they can see a hole card, or what the optimal strategy is when they can see that card, you are the person to ask. If they want to know how to see the hole card, or, from the casino end, how to prevent someone from seeing the hole card (which is the only real way to solve the problem) I'd suggest going elsewhere.

Quote: odiousgambit

a 1% advantage out there somewhere, consistently, would turn me into an AP



https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

[edits]

That's on an even money bet on a table game where you can start betting more and more as your bankroll grows, Big difference from the 1% on VP and other games. I would think card counters and other card game situations get you on average of 1%. but not flat betting.

I can get you over 1 % all day long on VP.

I think I might be the most unusual AP of all time. A high school dropout. My booze habit rendered me unemployable as far as regular jobs go. I deteriorated into day labor. I've always been a non conformist. I'm still a no account drifter. I just don't have to thumb highways or ride trains to get around anymore. And I don't sleep in the weeds anymore.

Fate is a strange thing. If I hadn't got picked up in Tehachapi by a guy in a van who dropped me off in Laughlin and then met another credit hustler at Harrah's/Laughlin who told me about the Pig machines what would I be doing now? Probably still living under bridges. I feel like the luckiest man in the world.

The one thing I have a problem with is how am I contributing to society. I'm not really. But I painted myself into this corner. I won't quit doing what I do until I die. I give away a lot of money. I help my working stiff friends out. Thank God I'm not on that paycheck mill.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: odiousgambit

a 1% advantage out there somewhere, consistently, would turn me into an AP



https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

[edits]

That's on an even money bet, a table game, where you can start betting more and more as your bankroll grows. That's a Big difference from the 1% on VP and other games.

I would think card counters and other card game situations get you on average of 1%. but not flat betting.

I can get you over 1 % all day long on VP.

Quote: AxelWolf

I can get you over 1 % all day long on VP.

PM me! :)

Note that for card counting, you can move your bets up to the table max. Not unlimited, but high-limit games usually have good rules, and 1% of $10k is $100 (per spot, per hand)

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I also think that the shots that you took at DS and his I18 were unnecessary and, to be honest, very unprofessional. If you are going to be a professional then you are going to be held to a higher standard than the posters on this forum.

I had a number of conversations (including one with Bill Zender) about that post. I had a lot of input, much of it saying to hold back, but in the end decided to go with it. In retrospect, I am glad I made that post, for reasons I don't want to defend here. I am glad DS came here and said what he said. I added some of his comments here and at bj21 to the end of my post.

Quote:

I also think that your recommendations on how to protect games are a little bit simplistic.

Remember my audience.

Quote:

If they want to know how to see the hole card, or, from the casino end, how to prevent someone from seeing the hole card (which is the only real way to solve the problem) I'd suggest going elsewhere.

And that person would be? What top AP is out there teaching hole-card protection to casinos?

deleted

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I disagree with your repeated statements that card counting blackjack is not a viable way to make money.

Card counting at the $100 max-bet level is not a viable way to make money. Even at $200, it is tough. The $40 to $50/hour you earn at a $200 limit doesn't mention the short sessions, the time spent traveling between casinos and other costs. When I would count, I could spend 14 hours a day on the street, and only about 6 of those were at the tables. I advise casinos that each casino should have its personal level of comfort with respect to the real threat, but don't be stupid. By showing them the real earning power at the $100 level (and stressing that those results are "scalable") they are better suited to define their point of concern.

deleted

I'm AP because I dropped out of college out of financial reasons. Soon I rationalized the dropping out and realized I don't need a piece of paper that says to others I'm capable. If I'm capable I don't give a shit if someone else doesn't believe it.

Sure with my intelligence I could make more money elsewhere. But i'm not fucking wasting my time and money on that diploma before getting such jobs.

Quote: Neutrino

I'm AP because I dropped out of college out of financial reasons. Soon I rationalized the dropping out and realized I don't need a piece of paper that says to others I'm capable. If I'm capable I don't give a shit if someone else doesn't believe it.

Sure with my intelligence I could make more money elsewhere. But i'm not fucking wasting my time and money on that diploma before getting such jobs.

Wow. What do you *like* to do?

Quote: teliot

Card counting at the $100 max-bet level is not a viable way to make money.

That's obviously true.

Quote: teliot

Wow. What do you *like* to do?

A lot of people hated school. Personally, I loved it, and if money was not an issue I would go back and study all the areas of mathematics that I never got around to. But, not everyone is an academic.

I just watched 3:14 go by on the clock, on 3/14 in the month 3-14. A mathematician's delight.

deleted

"Why are you an AP"

Freedom!

I heard Bob Dancer say that gambling for a living is a great way to meet women, and collect money.

Quote: djatc

I heard Bob Dancer say that gambling for a living is a great way to meet women

A+ thread, would read again.

Quote: teliot

I just watched 3:14 go by on the clock, on 3/14 in the month 3-14. A mathematician's delight.

Eh, everyone should be on ISO 8601. You are using 14 as both the year and the day.

ERRONEOUS.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Eh, everyone should be on ISO 8601. You are using 14 as both the year and the day.

ERRONEOUS.

I was about to go make some tea, but I didn't have my copy of ISO 3103 handy and I didn't want to make a mistake.

Well he didn't specify how good looking the women will be....

Quote: djatc

Well he didn't specify how good looking the women will be....

But she's betting $2/spin! She obv has money.

I would certainly say it's possible to be a recreational AP. If you gamble primarily for the thrill - not to make an income - and refuse to play with a negative EV - although perhaps your edge doesn't match expenses, or you put up more of your bankroll than a "true" AP would - I would consider you both a recreational gambler and an AP.

Quote: gpac1377

oze

If I had enough booze in me I would do the chick.