Divorce to Marriage Ratio
Quote: WizardThe 50% statistic still stands. If the population were changing, one could argue about the divorce to marriage ratio, but it's fairly level. The 50% statistic doesn't say that every marriage has a 50/50 chance of success. Show me an 18-year-old couple who had an unwanted pregnancy and was pressed into marriage by their church, I'd give that marriage a 10% chance at success. Who me two professional people over the age of 30 who have dated for at least 3 years, I'll give it at least 60%.
The 50% figure is a little misleading for thos that are not married yet. First marriages fail somewhere around the 30% mark. Second marriages are like 50%. Third and higher are around 75%. If you are not yet married you have a 70%+ chance of staying that way.
ZCore13
Quote: WizardAt Social Security, if you file for spousal or widow benefits, then show us the marriage certificate.
What about a person whose marriage ends with the death of a spouse and then gets remarried? That's two marriage licenses with zero divorce filings.
Quote: WizardI would love to write a book on the mathematics of marriage. It would look at the optimal strategy for finding the optimal mate. How many people should you date before? How long should a trial last? I think it would say that you should date about seven people, and then take the best one, if still available, or, if not, wait for the next person to come along who is equal or better. You can err both ways -- settling too easily too young or being too picky and dying alone. However, nobody would buy such a book. Young people think they are immortal and know everything. Older people would have already figured out that my points were more or less correct.
I remember awhile back some famous feminist wrote an article counseling young women to try to find a husband while attending college since they would never again have such a pool of eligible, educated, single men to choose from. An advantage play perhaps?
Quote: Zcore13The 50% figure is a little misleading for thos that are not married yet. First marriages fail somewhere around the 30% mark. Second marriages are like 50%. Third and higher are around 75%. If you are not yet married you have a 70%+ chance of staying that way.
ZCore13
Yep, I was going to write the exact same thing.
First marriages, the important marriages, do not
have a 50% failure rate. It's the second third and
fourth marriages, those are the ones that pump
up the stats.
Quote: GialmereQuestion for the mathematicians here. While roughly (the percentage goes up and down) 50% of all marriages end in divorce, I have heard that the statistics are somewhat skewed. From what I understand, the calculation is made by simply comparing the number of marriage licenses issued in a given year to the number of divorce filings. It doesn't, however, consider people who get married more than once. So...
Mr and Mrs Smith have four grown children. Three of them get married and stay married for life. The fourth child isn't so lucky in love, getting married and divorced three times. A statistician comes along and notes that the Smith family has generated six marriage licenses and three divorce filings and concludes that if you're born into the Smith family, your marriage has a 50% chance of failure.
Does a new Smith child actually have a 50/50 chance at divorce? Or are the odds actually a 75% chance of lifelong marital bliss?
If this family is the only family in the study and the question is "what is the probability of a marriage license being rendered null and void by divorce", the correct answer is 50%.
If the question is "what is the probability of a marriage license lasting forever", the correct answer is 75%.
So it depends on the question. And of course most families are not like this one, so 50% is probably fairly correct.
Quote: GialmereWhat about a person whose marriage ends with the death of a spouse and then gets remarried? That's two marriage licenses with zero divorce filings.
You are making me think back 30 years, but I think the first marriage doesn't affect you, so aren't required to prove it. If you were filing for spouses benefits based on the current wife/husband, you would need the marriage certificate.
Many people bring in more documents than they need, in which case they mark an event as proven, even if it didn't need to be proven, and they put a paper copy in the file of whatever certificate they brought it. The computer knew what documents were required to clear the case and wouldn't let you close it if all the needed "proof" boxes were not checked "yes."
Quote:I remember awhile back some famous feminist wrote an article counseling young women to try to find a husband while attending college since they would never again have such a pool of eligible, educated, single men to choose from. An advantage play perhaps?
Doesn't sound like something a feminist would say, but I think she was right.
I may owe BBB some push-ups for that one.
Pew
"Roughly two-thirds (65%) of men with a bachelor’s degree could expect that, if they marry, their first marriage will last 20 years or longer, compared with 50% of men with a high school diploma or less."
"Researchers at the National Center for Health Statistics estimate that 78% of college-educated women who married for the first time between 2006 and 2010 could expect their marriages to last at least 20 years."
Marriage longevity also varies between ethnic groups.
"Among men, Hispanics have the highest likelihood of being in a long-lasting marriage"
Quote: WizardI remember awhile back some famous feminist wrote an article counseling young women to try to find a husband while attending college since they would never again have such a pool of eligible, educated, single men to choose from. An advantage play perhaps?
Horny and inexperienced and socially
stupid men is more like it. A girl can
screw the socks off a college guy and
make him do whatever she wants, he's
so blinded by the sex. Thinking it will
be this way forever. Not quite..
Even if you restrict the question to the US, are you including common law marriages and marriages that are legal in some states but not recognized in others because they would simply be break-ups?
