Baccdude303
Baccdude303
Joined: Jan 2, 2022
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January 2nd, 2022 at 3:24:23 AM permalink
Wizard, of the 250,000 shoes in your simulation, how many started with a run of 5 or more and of 6 or more? Ties not included and specifically talking about player run or banker run. Thanks in advance.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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Baccdude303
January 2nd, 2022 at 9:05:06 AM permalink
Here are the results of 100 million shoes - the numbers indicate the fraction of shoes that had a run of that length or more at the start, ignoring ties (so 1 out of every 70 shoes started with a run of 6 or more player wins, and 1 out of every 59 started with a run of 6 or more bank wins):
RunPlayerBank
51 / 341 / 30
61 / 701 / 59
71 / 1411 / 116
81 / 2861 / 230
91 / 5801 / 454
101 / 1,1761 / 897
111 / 2,3961 / 1,772
121 / 4,8411 / 3,485
131 / 9,9491 / 6,888
141 / 19,9581 / 13,614
151 / 41,5661 / 27,524
161 / 86,6971 / 53,502
171 / 170,4401 / 107,233
181 / 343,8091 / 205,861
191 / 704,5661 / 374,713
201 / 1,429,2621 / 714,631
Wizard
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Wizard
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Baccdude303
January 2nd, 2022 at 2:23:20 PM permalink
Thanks Don! I would trust whatever Don says.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Baccdude303
Baccdude303
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January 2nd, 2022 at 9:08:02 PM permalink
Thanks Don for the quick reply. I truly appreciate it. New to the community. Thanks for the help!
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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January 2nd, 2022 at 11:07:38 PM permalink
You're still more likely to hit 19 Player wins than 20 Banker wins in a row.
Baccdude303
Baccdude303
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January 13th, 2022 at 7:49:20 AM permalink
Don Iím having some success using the math that you provided. Would that math be the same if we are charting runs of those lengths at anytime of the shoe? Sorry if that seems like a ďdumbĒ question but Iíve been doing fairly well betting against runs at the beginning of shoes using what you provided so I was wondering about looking for certain spots at anytime throughout the shoe.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 13th, 2022 at 1:13:51 PM permalink
Quote: Baccdude303

Don Iím having some success using the math that you provided. Would that math be the same if we are charting runs of those lengths at anytime of the shoe?


First of all, it's not really "math"; it's a simulation.

In the past, I have seen no significant changes in probabilities based on where in the shoe you are.
Quote: Baccdude303

Sorry if that seems like a ďdumbĒ question but Iíve been doing fairly well betting against runs at the beginning of shoes using what you provided


Stop right there.

Question: how are you "betting against runs"? Do you, say, wait for a run of 5 player wins and then bet against it, under the impression that the probability of a player win is only 1/70 (which is incorrect)? Or, perhaps, after a player win, you start a Martingale-style progression of bank bets? Going by the numbers I showed, neither of those will work in the long run - you will have a significant number of short-term wins, but the few losses you get will more than wipe those out.
Baccdude303
Baccdude303
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January 13th, 2022 at 9:12:14 PM permalink
Don I swear I knew I was going to get in trouble when I told you what I was doing :)

I know how you and The Wizard feel about Martingale-style systems. I know that in the long run itíll catch up to me. I was just trying to see what I could generate in the short term.

I take the first hand ďfreeĒ and then bet a negative progression against whatever that decision is (not taking into consideration a tie.) I look to make 1 unit per shoe so in many occasions Iím done after the 1st bet/ 2nd hand. My unit varies depending 500-1000 depending on which house I play. Iím a Las Vegas local and my main places I play have a 20k max (Station Casinos and Wynn HL room.) At the Venetian the max bet is 35k & at Commerce Casino in California I get 60k in the dragon room.

Iíve played 104 shoes since getting your simulation numbers. I have had a few shoes gobble me up but Iím ahead just under 30k since starting.

Iíll play it through the rest of the month and report back.

If youíre ever in Vegas send me a message. Letís play a few shoes together. Dinner and hotel suite on me.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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Dieter
January 14th, 2022 at 8:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: Baccdude303

I look to make 1 unit per shoe so in many occasions Iím done after the 1st bet/ 2nd hand. My unit varies depending 500-1000 depending on which house I play.

If youíre ever in Vegas send me a message. Letís play a few shoes together. Dinner and hotel suite on me.


Thanks for the offer, but it looks like you bet purples and up, whereas I sweat every time I put a green on the table. Besides, based on what I usually pack for a trip to Vegas, something tells me the places you go for dinner, I don't quite meet the dress code. I am a firm believer in, "If I'm paying $75 for a meal, I expect $75 worth of food."

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