2016 Election -- Part II
Poll
 | 57 votes (47.89%) | ||
| | 33 votes (27.73%) | ||
| | 12 votes (10.08%) | ||
| | 10 votes (8.4%) | ||
| | 4 votes (3.36%) | ||
| | 3 votes (2.52%) |
119 members have voted
Quote: MichaelBluejayLike I said, if you won't make an even-money bet on the Trump landslide that you predicted, then it's clear that you don't really believe Trump will win in a landslide.
You're definitely in camp Hillary....lol....Trump is better than even money to simply win. I offered a sweet deal at 10to1 for a landslide, using your definition. You're trying to argue why your gallon of milk is worth 50 dollars. I would be a fool to buy your milk. I am done and moving on.
The question wasn't whether he'd simply win. You stated he'd win in a landslide. But you demand odds to back up that claim. Ergo, you're not really confident that he'll win in a landslide.Quote: MaxPenTrump is better than even money to simply win.
Hell, if you're so confident he'll win in a landslide, you should be giving me odds. But you're not really confident at all, are you? You're so not confident you won't even do an even-money bet.
Quote: MichaelBluejayThe question wasn't whether he'd simply win. You stated he'd win in a landslide. But you demand odds to back up that claim. Ergo, you're not really confident that he'll win in a landslide.
Hell, if you're so confident he'll win in a landslide, you should be giving me odds. But you're not really confident at all, are you? You're so not confident you won't even do an even-money bet.
Are you a government purchasing agent posting from the Pentagon?
Quote: MaxPen
You're definitely in camp Hillary....lol....Trump is better than even money to simply win. I offered a sweet deal at 10to1 for a landslide, using your definition. You're trying to argue why your gallon of milk is worth 50 dollars. I would be a fool to buy your milk. I am done and moving on.
If you are truly done and moving on, that's the best news I've heard all week...however, you keep posting...
And "Camp Hillary Lol" was named after Hillary Lollifester, who died heroically while defending her Girl Scout troop from a gang of rabid raccoons. But the camp burned down mysteriously two years ago--no doubt from a Muslim terrorist attack--so I doubt that MichaelBlueJay is there now, if he ever was.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikIf you are truly done and moving on, that's the best news I've heard all week...however, you keep posting...
And "Camp Hillary Lol" was named after Hillary Lollifester, who died heroically while defending her Girl Scout troop from a gang of rabid raccoons. But the camp burned down mysteriously two years ago--no doubt from a Muslim terrorist attack--so I doubt that MichaelBlueJay is there now, if he ever was.
I'm baffled. Your point is ?
Trying to change the topic doesn't work. If you're truly confident, as you stated, that Trump will win in a landslide, then you should be willing to take an even-money bet. If you demand 10-1 odds, then you actually think he has only about a 10% chance of pulling off a landslide.Quote: MaxPenAre you a government purchasing agent posting from the Pentagon?
If you truly believe what you said, that Trump will win in a landslide, then let's bet. Put up or shut up.
Quote: beachbumbabsincluding the rape charges filed against him.
Her standing by Bill through his indiscretions shows her strength and faith. .
Please link to any rape charges filed against Mr. Trump. And you cannot possibly believe that her standing by Bill was anything other than a cold calculating analytical decision to further her political career . I mean, come on!
Quote: MichaelBluejayLike I said, if you won't make an even-money bet on the Trump landslide that you predicted, then it's clear that you don't really believe Trump will win in a landslide.
Even if I believe Trump would win in a landslide, why would I bet you even money, when I could get substantially better odds from virtually anyone?
Quote: SOOPOOFor those interested in the 'landslide' bet, I would say any win by 8 or more percentage points should count. So Trump 50, Clinton 42. Johnson 7. Stein 1 would be my minimum for a landslide. I would bet on Clinton in a landslide with 4-1 odds. 8 point win or more.
I think that's a more reasonable bet. Because I can't imagine any candidate getting >=56%.
Even if Hillary or Trump dropped dead tomorrow, I don't think anyone would get there.
Quote: SOOPOOPlease link to any rape charges filed against Mr. Trump. And you cannot possibly believe that her standing by Bill was anything other than a cold calculating analytical decision to further her political career . I mean, come on!
I/we/you cannot possibly believe that she loves her husband and was willing to stand by him and forgive him for his infidelity?
Let's stop this asinine stupidity of painting her as a scheming, evil witch. She's a human being, with all the virtues and flaws that human beings have. I mean, come on.
I'm even willing to say that Trump is human. I think. But Trump doesn't deserve the title of "Mister." I think "Anal Orifice" (or an equivalent term) is MUCH more appropriate.
Quote: ams288I think that's a more reasonable bet. Because I can't imagine any candidate getting >=56%.
Even if Hillary or Trump dropped dead tomorrow, I don't think anyone would get there.
In fact, Anal Orifice Trump should get MORE votes if he drops dead, because he'd make a better President that way.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MichaelBluejayLike I said, if you won't make an even-money bet on the Trump landslide that you predicted, then it's clear that you don't really believe Trump will win in a landslide.
Even if I believe Trump would win in a landslide, why would I bet you even money, when I could get substantially better odds from virtually anyone?
You shouldn't. But MaxPen's belief is so strong (apparently), he should be willing to offer 1000-to-1 odds that Trump will win by a score of seventy jillion to nothing.
The Wizard has posted info that would suggest what a fair bet on the election should be. As far as how much either candidate might win by, all we really have to go on is historical data, which are pretty useless in this election. But I do think that anyone saying "Trump will win in a landslide *THUMP* *THUMP* *THUMP*" (beating chest) should offer at least 10-1 odds, defining "landslide" in a way agreed upon by all parties.
Quote: SOOPOOFor those interested in the 'landslide' bet, I would say any win by 8 or more percentage points should count. So Trump 50, Clinton 42. Johnson 7. Stein 1 would be my minimum for a landslide. I would bet on Clinton in a landslide with 4-1 odds. 8 point win or more.
How much action do you want. You're numbers are very close to my forecasts. I woud take Trump and give 4-1 should Hillary win by 8 or more points.
Quote: SOOPOOPlease link to any rape charges filed against Mr. Trump. And you cannot possibly believe that her standing by Bill was anything other than a cold calculating analytical decision to further her political career . I mean, come on!
http://fusion.net/story/328522/donald-trump-accused-rape-sexual-assault/
Quote: MaxPenHow much action do you want. You're numbers are very close to my forecasts. I woud take Trump and give 4-1 should Hillary win by 8 or more points.
My 'numbers' were just used as an example, they aren't really my numbers! I will put up my $5 against your $20. I expect Hillary to do much better than the polls indicate. I do not expect to win the bet, but I think it is +EV for me at 4-1.
I take the phrase 'rape charges' as implying that a prosecuting entity places legal charges against him. Am I wrong or are these all women not looking to send him to jail for rape, but rather, women looking to line their pockets in a civil suit, or civil shakedown? If you want to use the word 'charge' more freely, meaning anyone can 'charge' anyone with anything, then of course yo would always be correct.Quote: beachbumbabshttp://fusion.net/story/328522/donald-trump-accused-rape-sexual-assault/
Quote: SOOPOOI take the phrase 'rape charges' as implying that a prosecuting entity places legal charges against him. Am I wrong or are these all women not looking to send him to jail for rape, but rather, women looking to line their pockets in a civil suit, or civil shakedown? If you want to use the word 'charge' more freely, meaning anyone can 'charge' anyone with anything, then of course yo would always be correct.
You might be splitting hairs here. I would not want someone who has been accused of rape, in civil OR criminal proceedings, to date my daughter or occupy my White House. You or I don't really know enough to say for sure whether ALL these women are just attempting to blackmail poor Anal Orifice Trump. Though I would refer you to what I call the "Bill Cosby effect" to evaluate that. Where there's smoke, there's rape (or something like that).
Quote: JoeshlabotnikYou might be splitting hairs here. I would not want someone who has been accused of rape, in civil OR criminal proceedings, to date my daughter or occupy my White House.
Yet somehow I think you were and remain a Bill Clinton fan?
Quote: SteverinosI soooooooooooooooooooooooo hope Don brings up Bill's infidelity at the next debate. It would be a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge mistake.
Aside from that, what possible relevance does it have? Trump is implying that Hillary not divorcing Bill, or killing him, or something, connotes some kind of weakness on her part. This from a thing, uh, man, who uses and discards women like Kleenex.
Quote: AZDuffmanYet somehow I think you were and remain a Bill Clinton fan?
Wrong-o, Duffy boy. I disliked him when he was President, and I don't like him much now. That has zippo to do with how I feel about Hillary, though your master, Anal Orifice Trump, seems to think it should.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikAside from that, what possible relevance does it have? Trump is implying that Hillary not divorcing Bill, or killing him, or something, connotes some kind of weakness on her part. This from a thing, uh, man, who uses and discards women like Kleenex.
The point is that Hillary has so little self-respect that she goes on 60 Minutes to defend a cheating husband. She blames the GOP because he jumps to another woman's bed. Do you really want a blonde baboon who will not just not stand up for herself, but enable the cheater?
Quote: AZDuffmanThe point is that Hillary has so little self-respect that she goes on 60 Minutes to defend a cheating husband. She blames the GOP because he jumps to another woman's bed. Do you really want a blonde baboon who will not just not stand up for herself, but enable the cheater?
Really? You interpret honoring marriage vows and forgiving someone as no self-respect? Wow. That explains at least a few things about what you post. Sad.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe point is that Hillary has so little self-respect that she goes on 60 Minutes to defend a cheating husband. She blames the GOP because he jumps to another woman's bed. Do you really want a blonde baboon who will not just not stand up for herself, but enable the cheater?
I guess I'm just not the misogynist you are. I loathe the double standard that says that men are to be admired for their infidelity (those studly studs!), but women are to be reviled and blamed for it (she wasn't hot enough to keep him interested!).
Furthermore, I don't really give a rat's rectum about something that happened twenty years ago. Why don't we take the next logical step and talk about how Hillary didn't return that library book on time when she was in third grade?
Quote: Joeshlabotnik
Furthermore, I don't really give a rat's rectum about something that happened twenty years ago.
So you do not care about Trump's bankruptcy? I have a life and don't have time to search your rants, but I bet you do.
Quote: beachbumbabsReally? You interpret honoring marriage vows and forgiving someone as no self-respect? Wow. That explains at least a few things about what you post. Sad.
I call letting a spouse cheat for DECADES having no self-respect. I call blaming the "right wing" because you cannot keep your husband in your bed a lack of self respect.
Yes, she has no self-respect. She let herself be a doormat to be the wife of a powerful man. Did you watch "Dallas" in the 70s/80s? Remember how Sue Ellen let JR sleep around in return for being "Mrs JR Ewing?" That is Hillary.
Strong women do not put up with cheating spouses. There may be a forgive and forget if she catches him once. Even then, a strong woman puts him on notice. Hillary made an arrangement. Make a fool of her as long as she can be the wife of the powerful man.
THAT is sad. Sadder still is that she puts herself up as some kind of role model for women and girls.
Quote: SOOPOOMy 'numbers' were just used as an example, they aren't really my numbers! I will put up my $5 against your $20. I expect Hillary to do much better than the polls indicate. I do not expect to win the bet, but I think it is +EV for me at 4-1.
Accepted. I will give the 20 to Wizard or another board member should you win as I know you run into each other every now and then.
Con logic 101.
Quote: MaxPenAccepted. I will give the 20 to Wizard or another board member should you win as I know you run into each other every now and then.
No need to. We can resolve the bet after the final tally is made.
Quote: SteverinosYou're blaming Hillary for what her husband did, but yet voting for a guy that did exactly the same thing.
Con logic 101.
Well, one, she claims to have "been right there" and claims his record as part of her own.
Second, who is blaming her for what he did? At least I am saying she let herself be a doormat and defended his cheating on her. She for sure attacked the women he harassed to defend him.
Translation: You have no confidence that Trump will actually win in a landslide, since you won't make an even-money bet on it. Which is exactly what I expected.Quote: MaxPenNot changing the topic at all. Only a government purchasing agent could justify paying 50 for something worth 5.
Simple: to prove that you truly believe that Trump will win in a landslide. If you want people to think that you really believe some outrageous claim you've made, then you put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise, talk is cheap. And in MaxPen's case, pretty much worthless.Quote: SOOPOOEven if I believe Trump would win in a landslide, why would I bet you even money, when I could get substantially better odds from virtually anyone?
Quote: MichaelBluejayTranslation: You have no confidence that Trump will actually win in a landslide, since you won't make an even-money bet on it. Which is exactly what I expected.
Simple: to prove that you truly believe that Trump will win in a landslide. If you want people to think that you really believe some outrageous claim you've made, then you put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise, talk is cheap. And in MaxPen's case, pretty much worthless.
I don't think this makes any sense. There is no logical reason why anyone would make a bet at even money when they could make the same bet somewhere else at 4-1 or even higher. Their confidence in winning is quite irrelevant IMO. It's just common sense that you would make the bet with the higher payout.
Quote: AussieI don't think this makes any sense. There is no logical reason why anyone would make a bet at even money when they could make the same bet somewhere else at 4-1 or even higher. Their confidence in winning is quite irrelevant IMO. It's just common sense that you would make the bet with the higher payout.
True, but MaxPen is so confident, he should be willing to back that up. After all, if you say that something absolutely, positively, without a doubt will happen (however unlikely it may be in objective reality), then you should be happy to accept a bet that it won't at even money.
Plus, I don't see anyone fading "Trump will win in a landslide," since "landslide" has yet to be defined. I would expect that anyone betting on Trump to win at all (by any margin) should ask for 2-1 odds, unless, of course, you're a worshiper at the Church of Limbaugh or the Temple of Fox News. Then you should offer 1000-1 odds on Anal Orifice Trump.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikTrue, but MaxPen is so confident, he should be willing to back that up. After all, if you say that something absolutely, positively, without a doubt will happen (however unlikely it may be in objective reality), then you should be happy to accept a bet that it won't at even money.
Plus, I don't see anyone fading "Trump will win in a landslide," since "landslide" has yet to be defined. I would expect that anyone betting on Trump to win at all (by any margin) should ask for 2-1 odds, unless, of course, you're a worshiper at the Church of Limbaugh or the Temple of Fox News. Then you should offer 1000-1 odds on Anal Orifice Trump.
I can't agree. Getting one over a stranger on an Internet forum isn't worth taking 1/4 the money for. Not for any normal person anyway. If you offer me even money and the guy next to you offers me 4-1 I will take 4-1 every day of the week regardless of how confident I am or how much I would love to take your money. Thats common sense.
If MBJ comes back and agrees to 4-1 or some price close to what is easily attainable in other markets and a definition for landslide could be agreed to, then yes if he still didn't want to make the bet you point would be valid. But as it stands only an idiot would make the bet at even money.
As a point of reference you can bet Trump to get >50% of the popular vote at +450 on Betfair right now.
Quote: Aussie
As a point of reference you can bet Trump to get >50% of the popular vote at +450 on Betfair right now.
I wouldn't take that bet even if I was a Trumper, because most plausible scenarios where he wins have him doing so with less than 50% of the popular vote.
Quote: AZDuffmanI call letting a spouse cheat for DECADES having no self-respect. I call blaming the "right wing" because you cannot keep your husband in your bed a lack of self respect.
Hillary explains why she stayed with Bill in her book and several times on the record. But if you to bring up fidelity or lack of strength, what is the equivalent argument for Donald, who has documented cases of infidelity in his various marriages.
Quote:Strong women do not put up with cheating spouses. There may be a forgive and forget if she catches him once. Even then, a strong woman puts him on notice. Hillary made an arrangement. Make a fool of her as long as she can be the wife of the powerful man.
Are you a strong woman? How do you know? I know plenty of strong women who have been cheated on who have worked through the problem with their spouse.
There is no argument to be won by bringing up Bill's infidelity. America loves comeback stories. At least it won't change the minds of any voters.
Here's what happened:
Quote:But responding to a reporter's' question about a key part of Trump's proposal for the wall along the two countries' 2,000-mile border – that the GOP nominee would force Mexico to foot the bill – Trump said the subject didn't come up.
"We did discuss the wall. We didn't discuss payment of the wall," he said. "That will be for a later date. This was a very preliminary meeting."
Later, however, Pena Nieto said that the two had, indeed, discussed the wall -- and that he told Trump Mexico would not pay for it.
Right off the bat, personally I don't know if Trump is the one blatantly lying, but SOMEONE HERE IS. I have my suspicions who it is and his last name doesn't start with N I don't think.
You're thinking about this only from a gambling perspective, but there are two different possible reasons one would make a bet like this. One would be to try to make money, in which case you'd try to get the best odds possible. But the other would be to prove that you really believe the outrageous claim you made and that you're not just totally, completely full of shit.Quote: AussieI don't think this makes any sense. There is no logical reason why anyone would make a bet at even money when they could make the same bet somewhere else at 4-1 or even higher. Their confidence in winning is quite irrelevant IMO. It's just common sense that you would make the bet with the higher payout.
And if you're not just completely, totally full of shit, you'd happily take even money, putting your money where your mouth is.
Quote: MichaelBluejayYou're thinking about this only from a gambling perspective, but there are two different possible reasons one would make a bet like this. One would be to try to make money, in which case you'd try to get the best odds possible. But the other would be to prove that you really believe the outrageous claim you made and that you're not just totally, completely full of shit.
And if you're not just completely, totally full of shit, you'd happily take even money, putting your money where your mouth is.
Not thinking about it purely from a gambling point of view at all. I'll repeat what I said before: only an idiot would accept a bet with a possible payout of 1/4 that which he could get from someone else for the same thing. I think you significantly overestimate the importance someone would place on getting something over someone. Maybe if the bet was very small the entertainment value of taking money from someone you had been arguing with would be worth it but for anything more than a few dollars difference it's not. Only the truly deranged would actually make a bet like this thinking that taking money from a complete stranger to make a point is worth anything more than a handful of change.
And besides, if his motive was to prove he believed what he is spouting then he could easily do this by making the bet with a real bookmaker and posting a photo of the bet slip to prove it. He doesn't need to take your bet to achieve this.
In the absence of you offering a reasonable bet the best situation for him is to make the bet with a real bookmaker. If he wins he gets more money plus he gets to rub your nose in it and say he's right.
First sentence contradicts the second. I stopped reading here.Quote: AussieNot thinking about it purely from a gambling point of view at all. I'll repeat what I said before: only an idiot would accept a bet with a possible payout of 1/4 that which he could get from someone else for the same thing.
Quote: MichaelBluejayFirst sentence contradicts the second. I stopped reading here.
Is that you AZDuffman? Lol
Quote: AussieIs that you AZDuffman? Lol
Research shows that only 0.003% of the people who type "lol" are actually laughing out loud as they type it.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikResearch shows that only 0.003% of the people who type "lol" are actually laughing out loud as they type it.
Probably less than that. Nevertheless, the obvious similarity in their replies were enough to let out a chuckle as I typed it.
Quote: MichaelBluejayYou're thinking about this only from a gambling perspective, but there are two different possible reasons one would make a bet like this. One would be to try to make money, in which case you'd try to get the best odds possible. But the other would be to prove that you really believe the outrageous claim you made and that you're not just totally, completely full of shit.
And if you're not just completely, totally full of shit, you'd happily take even money, putting your money where your mouth is.
People state things that they believe are probable all the time. I "literally" have thousands in action thru various bets backing up my beliefs in a Trump victory, just as I did for him to win the nomination. Just because I believed doesn't mean I would bet even money on Trump when others were offering +900 or +150.
Hillary is wasting millions bashing Trump in ads nationwide, just like you are trying to do by claiming that I am "full of shit". People who are Anal orifices tend to resort to name calling and false claims when losing.
Yes, but your recent claim was that he'd win in a *landslide*, a claim you won't back up with an even-money bet.Quote: MaxPenI "literally" have thousands in action thru various bets backing up my beliefs in a Trump victory, just as I did for him to win the nomination.
You ought to win an award for hypocrisy.Quote: MaxPenPeople who are Anal orifices tend to resort to name calling...
I'm losing? Between the two of us, I'm the one willing to bet against your claim. You're not. That seems to bespeak a rather large fear of losing on your part.Quote: MaxPen...and false claims when losing.
Quote: MichaelBluejayYes, but your recent claim was that he'd win in a *landslide*, a claim you won't back up with an even-money bet.
You ought to win an award for hypocrisy.
I'm losing? Between the two of us, I'm the one willing to bet against your claim. You're not. That seems to bespeak a rather large fear of losing on your part.
Are you looking for a $5 or $20 handout? I have a Chili's restaurant gift card for $25 that I can mail you.
