Don't Pass Craps Strategy
August 15th, 2023 at 12:50:37 PM
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What he said ^^^Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
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link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
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You have no control over when the PL bet is resolved (comeout or point stage) so cannot separate them
This thread was started by someone making that mistake
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 1:02:49 PM
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first you post this
and then you post this:
if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?
what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain
maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess
.
Quote: Ace2
Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”
and then you post this:
Quote: Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time
if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?
what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain
maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 15th, 2023 at 1:09:12 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 1:11:11 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterfirst you post this
Quote: Ace2
Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”
and then you post this:Quote: Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time
if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?
what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain
maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess
.
link to original post
He was. He has stated similarly in the past. Sandals and argyle socks.
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 1:14:45 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterfirst you post this
Quote: Ace2
Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”
and then you post this:Quote: Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time
if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?
what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain
maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess
.
link to original post
Ace2 needs sarcasm font.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
August 15th, 2023 at 1:18:13 PM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
link to original post
Read and comment: you are comparing a partial PL bet (after point established) to a full PB. Is that a comparison that makes sense?
If I were forced to make a bet after the come out and had to choose a PL or PB on the point, I would choose the PB in your example. However, if I am making the bet before the come out, I would choose to make the PL. Does that make sense?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
August 15th, 2023 at 1:29:16 PM
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Assuming all bets are resolved during comeout and ignoring the point stage, a $10 PL bet gets paid $10 when a 7 or 11 is rolled. A place bet gets paid zero since it’s off or hasn’t been made yetQuote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
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$10 is infinitely better than zero
Sorry Tuttigym, there is no possible way to argue against that
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 1:34:35 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
I asked about the HE on those two bets, is that available?
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
link to original post
Read and comment: you are comparing a partial PL bet (after point established) to a full PB. Is that a comparison that makes sense?
If I were forced to make a bet after the come out and had to choose a PL or PB on the point, I would choose the PB in your example. However, if I am making the bet before the come out, I would choose to make the PL. Does that make sense?
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Yes it does, but to be real, I would not play the point as a PB nor would I be playing the PL at Come Out.
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 1:38:04 PM
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During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house
That’s the kind of bet Tuttigym won’t play
That’s the kind of bet Tuttigym won’t play
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 1:39:48 PM
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Quote: Ace2Assuming all bets are resolved during comeout and ignoring the point stage, a $10 PL bet gets paid $10 when a 7 or 11 is rolled. A place bet gets paid zero since it’s off or hasn’t been made yetQuote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
link to original post
$10 is infinitely better than zero
Sorry Tuttigym, there is no possible way to argue against that
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And the PL loses to craps and all 7 outs which, as you are aware, happen far more frequently the point winners. However, I do respect the argument; I just do not embrace it.
tuttigym.
August 15th, 2023 at 1:45:10 PM
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There you go again.
The PL loses against craps and WINS against 7 (and 11) during comeout
The PL loses against craps and WINS against 7 (and 11) during comeout
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 1:50:39 PM
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Quote: Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house
That’s the kind of bet Tuttigym won’t play
link to original post
I'm sorry that is just not quite accurate. If that were the case, Ace's go to bet would be Big Red for huge $$$$.
Didn't you say that Big Red was a sucker's bet or some such thing? Especially since the Come Out is essentially a one roll bet similar to Big Red?
Just checking.
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 1:57:12 PM
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Quote: Ace2There you go again.
The PL loses against craps and WINS against 7 (and 11) during comeout
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I said that didn't I? To be fair, I did not mention 7 -11 winners at CO, but it was inferred.
BTW what is the HE on Big Red?
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 2:00:39 PM
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Duplicate
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 15, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 2:06:09 PM
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But we are ignoring come out so forget about the flat $10 bet. A $40 odds bet on 5/9 pays $60 vs $56 for a place bet.Quote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds
I know…house edge is irrelevant
link to original post
Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?
Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?
Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Bold added.
You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.
link to original post
Please read and comment:
Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.
$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.
Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.
As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.
tuttigym
link to original post
You are the casino’s favorite customer and I assume you receive weekly if not daily mailers. You like making a place bet with a 10% edge ($4 held on $40 wagered) when the same bet at 0% edge is right in front of you.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 15, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 3:10:51 PM
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Quote: Ace2}[/qBut we are ignoring come out so forget about the flat $10 bet. A $40 odds bet on 5/9 pays $60 vs $56 for a place bet.
Moving the goal post. That was not the question. Equal amounts of $$ wagered. As I said, for me it is NOT real, but the reality which you affirmed is that under those conditions the PB was better.
Quote: Ace2You are the casino’s favorite customer and I assume you receive weekly if not daily mailers. You like making a place bet with a 10% edge ($4 held on $40 wagered) when the same bet at 0% edge is right in front of you.
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If you are assuming that I would play that way, wrong again.
Now answer the question about Big Red. What is the HE on that wager? Can you tell me what the overall HE is on the game of craps? The prevailing "wisdom" is that craps cannot be beaten because of the HE, so what is it?
tuttigym
August 15th, 2023 at 3:42:10 PM
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Ive never bet Big Red so I wouldn’t know. Center bets are sucker bets…that much I do know
There is no overall house edge of craps. It’s bet specific
The edge on place bets is many times higher than the edge on PL plus odds
There is no overall house edge of craps. It’s bet specific
The edge on place bets is many times higher than the edge on PL plus odds
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 15, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
August 15th, 2023 at 6:59:06 PM
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Response to ChumpChange
If I am playing dark side bets I usually play DC instead of DP. Why? If the shooter is random, it makes no difference. But if the shooter has some skill a 7 or 11 is more likely on the come out roll than on subsequent rolls. That favors the DC strategy. I don't think it much matters which count you play. Also in DC I am not usually playing against the shooters point. Again if the shooter has some skill the probability of him hitting his point is higher than random. Since the house edge is so small in DC/DP bets a small shift in the odds can make the difference.
Silverchip
Original Post:
57% of the rolls by a random roller would not make it past the five-count.
So I've been betting the DC on the 4 count since the point got established (at the tables), trying to skip the 2nd & 3rd rolls where random rollers typically throw a 7 and is a winner for the DP bets. I'm hoping that there will still be a 57% chance they will 7-out during the next 5 rolls after I get my DC point established. But if 4 out of 7 shooters aren't even going to get past 5 rolls, I'll miss a lot of shooters that I could have picked up if I bet the DP. It's just that they may throw a bunch of 7's before the point gets established and make my DP a loser. That's why I would bet lower on the come-out on the Don'ts and then add odds, because I'm disadvantaged on the come-out. I have a 2/9ths chance of losing my DC come-out roll and 1/9th chance of winning my DC come-out roll. Non-tourist rollers may be throwing a lot more 7's on the come-out rolls making my odds of losing a DP bet higher on the come-out.
I don't know that the 57% chance goes down for non-tourist rollers.
Now if I have to bet on the shooter before me in order to qualify to shoot when it's my turn, I'll have to bet the DP because they may not make it to my 4 count to place my DC bet.
If I am playing dark side bets I usually play DC instead of DP. Why? If the shooter is random, it makes no difference. But if the shooter has some skill a 7 or 11 is more likely on the come out roll than on subsequent rolls. That favors the DC strategy. I don't think it much matters which count you play. Also in DC I am not usually playing against the shooters point. Again if the shooter has some skill the probability of him hitting his point is higher than random. Since the house edge is so small in DC/DP bets a small shift in the odds can make the difference.
Silverchip
Original Post:
57% of the rolls by a random roller would not make it past the five-count.
So I've been betting the DC on the 4 count since the point got established (at the tables), trying to skip the 2nd & 3rd rolls where random rollers typically throw a 7 and is a winner for the DP bets. I'm hoping that there will still be a 57% chance they will 7-out during the next 5 rolls after I get my DC point established. But if 4 out of 7 shooters aren't even going to get past 5 rolls, I'll miss a lot of shooters that I could have picked up if I bet the DP. It's just that they may throw a bunch of 7's before the point gets established and make my DP a loser. That's why I would bet lower on the come-out on the Don'ts and then add odds, because I'm disadvantaged on the come-out. I have a 2/9ths chance of losing my DC come-out roll and 1/9th chance of winning my DC come-out roll. Non-tourist rollers may be throwing a lot more 7's on the come-out rolls making my odds of losing a DP bet higher on the come-out.
I don't know that the 57% chance goes down for non-tourist rollers.
Now if I have to bet on the shooter before me in order to qualify to shoot when it's my turn, I'll have to bet the DP because they may not make it to my 4 count to place my DC bet.
August 19th, 2023 at 10:36:54 AM
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Quote: Ace2Ive never bet Big Red so I wouldn’t know. Center bets are sucker bets…that much I do know
There is no overall house edge of craps. It’s bet specific
The edge on place bets is many times higher than the edge on PL plus odds
link to original post
So, the game of craps has NO overall HE. I am going to assume that your answer is correct as there was no pushbacks or corrections from Wizard.
OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?
tuttigym
August 19th, 2023 at 11:16:16 AM
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I don't think he is saying the house doesn't have the edge, only that the edge varies for each bet. There is not a HE per sec for the entire game. On a PL bet the expected loss is 1.41c per dollar bet. If you bet $10 then your expected loss is 14.1c through the resolution of the bet. If you add odds the house edge goes down but you are playing for a larger amount of money. Your expected loss through the resolution does not change.
Silverchip
Silverchip
August 19th, 2023 at 4:08:58 PM
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Very easily using second grade arithmetic.Quote: tuttigym[
OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?
tuttigym
link to original post
A PL bet with a 1.4% edge has a 1 - .014 = .986 return. Since a win pays 2 for 1, that means you have a .986 / 2 = .493 chance of winning the PL bet
Make sense ?
It’s all about making that GTA
August 20th, 2023 at 9:02:42 AM
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Quote: Ace2Very easily using second grade arithmetic.Quote: tuttigym[
OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?
tuttigym
link to original post
A PL bet with a 1.4% edge has a 1 - .014 = .986 return. Since a win pays 2 for 1, that means you have a .986 / 2 = .493 chance of winning the PL bet
Make sense ?
link to original post
Sorry, no. The PL bet is an even money return, one for one, not as you show. The .986 "return" just does not happen especially after a point is established. If any player could get a 98.6% "return" on his play, the casino would be out of business, or the game would be totally shut down. PL wins happen two ways, as you are well aware. CO winner 7 -11 two to one player edge or point conversion where the edge to the house increases based on the point to be converted. That supposed 1.41% edge does not exist when one might calculate the actual ODDS of winning the bet. In fact, every wager made has a mathematical calculation for success, and it is not the HE. The actual edge is about how many ways there are to WIN a bet as opposed to losing that bet.
So is that your experience; a .986 "return" on your PL play? I feel confident that is not the case.
tuttigym
August 20th, 2023 at 9:18:21 AM
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Quote: silverchipI don't think he is saying the house doesn't have the edge, only that the edge varies for each bet. There is not a HE per sec for the entire game. On a PL bet the expected loss is 1.41c per dollar bet. If you bet $10 then your expected loss is 14.1c through the resolution of the bet. If you add odds the house edge goes down but you are playing for a larger amount of money. Your expected loss through the resolution does not change.
Silverchip
link to original post
Silverchip: Thanks for the response. My problem with your analysis is that a player cannot lose 14.1 c on a $10 PL wager or any other PL wager regardless of size. You are correct on "edge" varies for each bet, but the edge does not vary, the ODDS of winning varies. Those are two different animals.
For me, your logic of "adding odds" and expected loss does not compute. Adding odds increases the risk of higher loss since the odds of winning the bets are tied to the six ways a 7 can be rolled as opposed to the lesser ways any point conversion can be accomplished. Logic would dictate that the expected losses from 7 outs will increase with the amount risked.
tuttigym
August 20th, 2023 at 9:23:45 AM
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Quote: tuttigymSorry, no. The PL bet is an even money return, one for one, not as you show.
Even money is one to one, or two for one. "One for one" is a push.
August 20th, 2023 at 10:43:54 AM
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https://www.goldentouchcraps.com/article.php?p=stickman_015.html
The only way to analyze the dp/dc bet versus the pass/come bet is by looking at the house advantage (HA) for a random roller. If a random roller were to bet $1 on the pass/come 1980 times, he could expect to win his line bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Thus he would lose $28 out of the $1980 he bet. 28 divided by 1980 = 1.41%. That is the HA on the pass/come bet.
If a random roller were to bet $1 on the dp/dc 1980 times, he could expect to win his bet 949 times, lose it 976 times and tie 55 times. Thus he would lose $27 out of the $1980 he bet. 27 divided by 1980 = 1.36%. That is the HA on the dp/dc bet.
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If trying to do a 3 point Molly/Dolly, it'd take somewhere around 600 shooters to make 1980 line bets. I don't know the math, but that'd be close to 5,000 rolls. The question is how to best get to 50 bets ahead before losing 25+ bets. I can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance. If the Don't odds bets resolve as a win much more frequently than the Do odds, betting with Don't odds may be the way there.
The only way to analyze the dp/dc bet versus the pass/come bet is by looking at the house advantage (HA) for a random roller. If a random roller were to bet $1 on the pass/come 1980 times, he could expect to win his line bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Thus he would lose $28 out of the $1980 he bet. 28 divided by 1980 = 1.41%. That is the HA on the pass/come bet.
If a random roller were to bet $1 on the dp/dc 1980 times, he could expect to win his bet 949 times, lose it 976 times and tie 55 times. Thus he would lose $27 out of the $1980 he bet. 27 divided by 1980 = 1.36%. That is the HA on the dp/dc bet.
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If trying to do a 3 point Molly/Dolly, it'd take somewhere around 600 shooters to make 1980 line bets. I don't know the math, but that'd be close to 5,000 rolls. The question is how to best get to 50 bets ahead before losing 25+ bets. I can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance. If the Don't odds bets resolve as a win much more frequently than the Do odds, betting with Don't odds may be the way there.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 20, 2023
August 20th, 2023 at 2:04:48 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangehttps://www.goldentouchcraps.com/article.php?p=stickman_015.html
The only way to analyze the dp/dc bet versus the pass/come bet is by looking at the house advantage (HA) for a random roller. If a random roller were to bet $1 on the pass/come 1980 times, he could expect to win his line bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Thus he would lose $28 out of the $1980 he bet. 28 divided by 1980 = 1.41%. That is the HA on the pass/come bet.
If a random roller were to bet $1 on the dp/dc 1980 times, he could expect to win his bet 949 times, lose it 976 times and tie 55 times. Thus he would lose $27 out of the $1980 he bet. 27 divided by 1980 = 1.36%. That is the HA on the dp/dc bet.
*****************************************************************************************
If trying to do a 3 point Molly/Dolly, it'd take somewhere around 600 shooters to make 1980 line bets. I don't know the math, but that'd be close to 5,000 rolls. The question is how to best get to 50 bets ahead before losing 25+ bets. I can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance. If the Don't odds bets resolve as a win much more frequently than the Do odds, betting with Don't odds may be the way there.
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Pure speculation. It has NEVER been done. It is a fantasy. If not, go to the tables and perform what you have posted. Perhaps you could set up the posted scenario and document it. Shouldn't take more than several lifetimes.
tuttigym
August 20th, 2023 at 2:24:27 PM
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What I copied/wrote above the line is the expert math. If you don't believe it, I'm gonna have to say you're trolling but I never bother with mods.
August 20th, 2023 at 2:40:29 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeWhat I copied/wrote above the line is the expert math. If you don't believe it, I'm gonna have to say you're trolling but I never bother with mods.
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I did not post I don't believe it; I posted it has never been PERFORMED at the tables and for you or someone to produce and perform your scenario. Can you do that?
tuttigym
August 20th, 2023 at 2:43:17 PM
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I told you what the simplest math expects from 1980 rolls. Beyond that, it's variance which is not the point of the HA calculations. However, if you play long enough, the variance can never exceed the HA again and turn a profit. Playing for 20,000 rolls may only put me down 100 units on the line bets by playing 3 point Molly/Dolly, maybe my variance with odds bets or other betting strategies can put me in profit.
I usually lose 25 line bets with odds in a much shorter amount of time while playing the Do side, I think it's bad luck. I should try the Don'ts and see if I can get a much higher win rate going. When my session starts off with losing 10 points in a row on a single PL with 2X odds bet, that's variance. The HA may be $1.40 on the ten $10 PL bets, but if I was betting 2X odds that's a $300 loss.
I usually lose 25 line bets with odds in a much shorter amount of time while playing the Do side, I think it's bad luck. I should try the Don'ts and see if I can get a much higher win rate going. When my session starts off with losing 10 points in a row on a single PL with 2X odds bet, that's variance. The HA may be $1.40 on the ten $10 PL bets, but if I was betting 2X odds that's a $300 loss.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 20, 2023
August 20th, 2023 at 2:48:57 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeI told you what the simplest math expects from 1980 rolls. Beyond that, it's variance which is not the point of the HA calculations.
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"Variance" always happens in craps, and the "math" never shows up or is performed.
tuttigym
August 20th, 2023 at 7:54:55 PM
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Tuttigym,
If you could bet the opposite of Big Red, meaning you win if the next roll is not 7, and a win paid 1 to 10, how would you evaluate that bet? Since there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose, does that give an advantage to the player ?
If you could bet the opposite of Big Red, meaning you win if the next roll is not 7, and a win paid 1 to 10, how would you evaluate that bet? Since there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose, does that give an advantage to the player ?
It’s all about making that GTA
August 20th, 2023 at 8:03:45 PM
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You don’t seem to grasp the concept of “average”Quote: tuttigym
Silverchip: Thanks for the response. My problem with your analysis is that a player cannot lose 14.1 c on a $10 PL wager or any other PL wager regardless of size. ]
For instance, American families have an average of 1.94 children though there is no possible way for a family to actually have 1.94 children. It’s an average
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 21, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
August 20th, 2023 at 8:15:27 PM
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nope. bet the odds to reduce the edgeQuote: ChumpChangeI can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance.
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It’s all about making that GTA
September 17th, 2023 at 2:38:41 AM
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Quote: Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house
WRONG
If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.
You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.
You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%
Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.
Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%
Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?
Oh, that's right. There's no one left.
September 17th, 2023 at 4:09:10 AM
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Half the time Ace2 is being a wiseguy, repeating comments he finds ridiculous, then we start thinking it's what he really thinks. In this case, when you quoted him, you clipped off the link to that post, so I don't know. I wouldn't think Ace2 really believes the statement quoted.Quote: TankoQuote: Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house
WRONG
If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.
You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.
You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%
Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.
Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%
Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?
Oh, that's right. There's no one left.
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 17th, 2023 at 8:32:55 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitHalf the time Ace2 is being a wiseguy, repeating comments he finds ridiculous, then we start thinking it's what he really thinks. In this case, when you quoted him, you clipped off the link to that post, so I don't know. I wouldn't think Ace2 really believes the statement quoted.
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Appeared to me as though he did. It's on this page.
It was in response to TG saying he would not be playing the PL on the come out.
Link: link to original post
September 17th, 2023 at 12:25:22 PM
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Quote: TankoQuote: Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house
WRONG
If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.
You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.
You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%
Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.
Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%
Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?
Oh, that's right. There's no one left.
link to original post
DURING COMEOUT you have 8 ways to win (7/11) a PL bet and 4 ways to lose (2,3,12). 8 / (8 + 4) =~ 67%
Once a point is established, you have either a 33%, 40% or 45.5% chance of winning depending on which point was established.
49.3% is the chance of winning a PL bet irrespective of when/how it’s resolved. This is the only % that matters since you have no control over when it’s resolved and cannot withdraw it after a point is established. But some people like to look at the bet in separate stages
It’s all about making that GTA
September 17th, 2023 at 12:43:59 PM
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Quote: Ace2DURING COMEOUT you have 8 ways to win (7/11) a PL bet and 4 ways to lose (2,3,12). 8 / (8 + 4) =~ 67%
That doesn't translate to a 67% chance of winning the comeout. It is still 8 in 36 or 22%.
What you do have is twice as good a chance of winning on the come out, than losing. But you still only have a 22% chance of winning , versus an 11% chance of losing on the come out
Considering the point numbers brings the chance of winning the PL bet to 49.3%
