What he said ^^^Quote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

You have no control over when the PL bet is resolved (comeout or point stage) so cannot separate them

This thread was started by someone making that mistake

Quote:Ace2

Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”

and then you post this:

Quote:Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time

if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?

what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain

maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess

.

Quote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

Quote:lilredroosterfirst you post this

Quote:Ace2

Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”

and then you post this:Quote:Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time

if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?

what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain

maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess

.

link to original post

He was. He has stated similarly in the past. Sandals and argyle socks.

tuttigym

Quote:lilredroosterfirst you post this

Quote:Ace2

Incidentally, craps is a game of chance so there is no “strategy”

and then you post this:Quote:Ace2Non-tourist rollers make it past the 5-count 81.3% of the time

if the first post is true - doesn't that mean that the 2nd post could not be true_________?

what difference does it make if you're a tourist or non-tourist_________?___________________please explain

maybe you were joking - that's what I would guess

.

link to original post

Ace2 needs sarcasm font.

Quote:tuttigymQuote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The place bet is BETTER because you only have to roll the point ONCE. To win a PL bet you must roll the point number TWICEQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2The edge of any place bet is higher than the PL bet edge with or without odds

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

link to original post

Read and comment: you are comparing a partial PL bet (after point established) to a full PB. Is that a comparison that makes sense?

If I were forced to make a bet after the come out and had to choose a PL or PB on the point, I would choose the PB in your example. However, if I am making the bet before the come out, I would choose to make the PL. Does that make sense?

Assuming all bets are resolved during comeout and ignoring the point stage, a $10 PL bet gets paid $10 when a 7 or 11 is rolled. A place bet gets paid zero since it’s off or hasn’t been made yetQuote:tuttigymQuote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2Quote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

link to original post

$10 is infinitely better than zero

Sorry Tuttigym, there is no possible way to argue against that

Quote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2Quote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

I asked about the HE on those two bets, is that available?

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

link to original post

Read and comment: you are comparing a partial PL bet (after point established) to a full PB. Is that a comparison that makes sense?

If I were forced to make a bet after the come out and had to choose a PL or PB on the point, I would choose the PB in your example. However, if I am making the bet before the come out, I would choose to make the PL. Does that make sense?

link to original post

Yes it does, but to be real, I would not play the point as a PB nor would I be playing the PL at Come Out.

tuttigym

That’s the kind of bet Tuttigym won’t play

Quote:Ace2Assuming all bets are resolved during comeout and ignoring the point stage, a $10 PL bet gets paid $10 when a 7 or 11 is rolled. A place bet gets paid zero since it’s off or hasn’t been made yetQuote:tuttigymQuote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2Quote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

link to original post

$10 is infinitely better than zero

Sorry Tuttigym, there is no possible way to argue against that

link to original post

And the PL loses to craps and all 7 outs which, as you are aware, happen far more frequently the point winners. However, I do respect the argument; I just do not embrace it.

tuttigym.

The PL loses against craps and WINS against 7 (and 11) during comeout

Quote:Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house

That’s the kind of bet Tuttigym won’t play

link to original post

I'm sorry that is just not quite accurate. If that were the case, Ace's go to bet would be Big Red for huge $$$$.

Didn't you say that Big Red was a sucker's bet or some such thing? Especially since the Come Out is essentially a one roll bet similar to Big Red?

Just checking.

tuttigym

Quote:Ace2There you go again.

The PL loses against craps and WINS against 7 (and 11) during comeout

link to original post

I said that didn't I? To be fair, I did not mention 7 -11 winners at CO, but it was inferred.

BTW what is the HE on Big Red?

tuttigym

But we are ignoring come out so forget about the flat $10 bet. A $40 odds bet on 5/9 pays $60 vs $56 for a place bet.Quote:tuttigymQuote:unJonQuote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2Quote:tuttigymQuote:Ace2

I know…house edge is irrelevant

link to original post

Answer the question: Which bet is BETTER?

Being fixated on "edge," then what is the "edge" on these two bets individually?

tuttigym

link to original post

link to original post

Ace, you surprise me. My question was worded improperly in that I was looking for an answer that regarded the two bets as equals. So, while your answer is technically correct, the PL number being rolled twice to win, the real answer is still out there. I will rephrase. After the point is established, I, player B did not play the PL, play the point number as a Place Bet equal in $$ to the PL + 3X odds. Which bet is better?

Does the "house edge" give a player any real knowledge as to the ability to win a bet? I will try to be specific. Big Red is a pretty bad bet. We both agree on that. Can you tell me what the "house edge" is on Big Red? Based on your answer, I will ask a follow-up.

tuttigym

link to original post

Bold added.

You consistently want to compare a PL bet after the point is established to a PB. It doesn’t work that way, and the odds the PB gives you is not quite as good as the extra value you get from the PL on the come out.

link to original post

Please read and comment:

Point is 5 or 9: $10 PL +$30 odds. Winner equals $10 PL + $45 odds or $55 total to the player.

$40 Place Bet on the 5 or 9 equals $56 to the player.

Because the PL is an even money wager, it actually works to the detriment of the player while a PB initial dollar amount garners an additional amount. This works for up to 4 X odds. After that the odds bets overtake the even money PL.

As far as the "extra value," for me, tying me into a point that will lose more often than win provides no real comfort.

tuttigym

link to original post

You are the casino’s favorite customer and I assume you receive weekly if not daily mailers. You like making a place bet with a 10% edge ($4 held on $40 wagered) when the same bet at 0% edge is right in front of you.

Quote:Ace2}[/qBut we are ignoring come out so forget about the flat $10 bet. A $40 odds bet on 5/9 pays $60 vs $56 for a place bet.

Moving the goal post. That was not the question. Equal amounts of $$ wagered. As I said, for me it is NOT real, but the reality which you affirmed is that under those conditions the PB was better.

Quote:Ace2You are the casino’s favorite customer and I assume you receive weekly if not daily mailers. You like making a place bet with a 10% edge ($4 held on $40 wagered) when the same bet at 0% edge is right in front of you.

link to original post

If you are assuming that I would play that way, wrong again.

Now answer the question about Big Red. What is the HE on that wager? Can you tell me what the overall HE is on the game of craps? The prevailing "wisdom" is that craps cannot be beaten because of the HE, so what is it?

tuttigym

There is no overall house edge of craps. It’s bet specific

The edge on place bets is many times higher than the edge on PL plus odds

If I am playing dark side bets I usually play DC instead of DP. Why? If the shooter is random, it makes no difference. But if the shooter has some skill a 7 or 11 is more likely on the come out roll than on subsequent rolls. That favors the DC strategy. I don't think it much matters which count you play. Also in DC I am not usually playing against the shooters point. Again if the shooter has some skill the probability of him hitting his point is higher than random. Since the house edge is so small in DC/DP bets a small shift in the odds can make the difference.

Silverchip

Original Post:

57% of the rolls by a random roller would not make it past the five-count.

So I've been betting the DC on the 4 count since the point got established (at the tables), trying to skip the 2nd & 3rd rolls where random rollers typically throw a 7 and is a winner for the DP bets. I'm hoping that there will still be a 57% chance they will 7-out during the next 5 rolls after I get my DC point established. But if 4 out of 7 shooters aren't even going to get past 5 rolls, I'll miss a lot of shooters that I could have picked up if I bet the DP. It's just that they may throw a bunch of 7's before the point gets established and make my DP a loser. That's why I would bet lower on the come-out on the Don'ts and then add odds, because I'm disadvantaged on the come-out. I have a 2/9ths chance of losing my DC come-out roll and 1/9th chance of winning my DC come-out roll. Non-tourist rollers may be throwing a lot more 7's on the come-out rolls making my odds of losing a DP bet higher on the come-out.

I don't know that the 57% chance goes down for non-tourist rollers.

Now if I have to bet on the shooter before me in order to qualify to shoot when it's my turn, I'll have to bet the DP because they may not make it to my 4 count to place my DC bet.

Quote:Ace2Ive never bet Big Red so I wouldn’t know. Center bets are sucker bets…that much I do know

There is no overall house edge of craps. It’s bet specific

The edge on place bets is many times higher than the edge on PL plus odds

link to original post

So, the game of craps has NO overall HE. I am going to assume that your answer is correct as there was no pushbacks or corrections from Wizard.

OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?

tuttigym

Silverchip

Very easily using second grade arithmetic.Quote:tuttigym[

OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?

tuttigym

link to original post

A PL bet with a 1.4% edge has a 1 - .014 = .986 return. Since a win pays 2 for 1, that means you have a .986 / 2 = .493 chance of winning the PL bet

Make sense ?

Quote:Ace2Very easily using second grade arithmetic.Quote:tuttigym[

OK, let's look at the HE for the PL which is 1.41%. Tell us what exactly that means in terms of winning any PL bet? How does a player evaluate the bet based on that HE?

tuttigym

link to original post

A PL bet with a 1.4% edge has a 1 - .014 = .986 return. Since a win pays 2 for 1, that means you have a .986 / 2 = .493 chance of winning the PL bet

Make sense ?

link to original post

Sorry, no. The PL bet is an even money return, one for one, not as you show. The .986 "return" just does not happen especially after a point is established. If any player could get a 98.6% "return" on his play, the casino would be out of business, or the game would be totally shut down. PL wins happen two ways, as you are well aware. CO winner 7 -11 two to one player edge or point conversion where the edge to the house increases based on the point to be converted. That supposed 1.41% edge does not exist when one might calculate the actual ODDS of winning the bet. In fact, every wager made has a mathematical calculation for success, and it is not the HE. The actual edge is about how many ways there are to WIN a bet as opposed to losing that bet.

So is that your experience; a .986 "return" on your PL play? I feel confident that is not the case.

tuttigym

Quote:silverchipI don't think he is saying the house doesn't have the edge, only that the edge varies for each bet. There is not a HE per sec for the entire game. On a PL bet the expected loss is 1.41c per dollar bet. If you bet $10 then your expected loss is 14.1c through the resolution of the bet. If you add odds the house edge goes down but you are playing for a larger amount of money. Your expected loss through the resolution does not change.

Silverchip

link to original post

Silverchip: Thanks for the response. My problem with your analysis is that a player cannot lose 14.1 c on a $10 PL wager or any other PL wager regardless of size. You are correct on "edge" varies for each bet, but the edge does not vary, the ODDS of winning varies. Those are two different animals.

For me, your logic of "adding odds" and expected loss does not compute. Adding odds increases the risk of higher loss since the odds of winning the bets are tied to the six ways a 7 can be rolled as opposed to the lesser ways any point conversion can be accomplished. Logic would dictate that the expected losses from 7 outs will increase with the amount risked.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymSorry, no. The PL bet is an even money return, one for one, not as you show.

Even money is one to one, or two for one. "One for one" is a push.

The only way to analyze the dp/dc bet versus the pass/come bet is by looking at the house advantage (HA) for a random roller. If a random roller were to bet $1 on the pass/come 1980 times, he could expect to win his line bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Thus he would lose $28 out of the $1980 he bet. 28 divided by 1980 = 1.41%. That is the HA on the pass/come bet.

If a random roller were to bet $1 on the dp/dc 1980 times, he could expect to win his bet 949 times, lose it 976 times and tie 55 times. Thus he would lose $27 out of the $1980 he bet. 27 divided by 1980 = 1.36%. That is the HA on the dp/dc bet.

*****************************************************************************************

If trying to do a 3 point Molly/Dolly, it'd take somewhere around 600 shooters to make 1980 line bets. I don't know the math, but that'd be close to 5,000 rolls. The question is how to best get to 50 bets ahead before losing 25+ bets. I can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance. If the Don't odds bets resolve as a win much more frequently than the Do odds, betting with Don't odds may be the way there.

Quote:ChumpChangehttps://www.goldentouchcraps.com/article.php?p=stickman_015.html

The only way to analyze the dp/dc bet versus the pass/come bet is by looking at the house advantage (HA) for a random roller. If a random roller were to bet $1 on the pass/come 1980 times, he could expect to win his line bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Thus he would lose $28 out of the $1980 he bet. 28 divided by 1980 = 1.41%. That is the HA on the pass/come bet.

If a random roller were to bet $1 on the dp/dc 1980 times, he could expect to win his bet 949 times, lose it 976 times and tie 55 times. Thus he would lose $27 out of the $1980 he bet. 27 divided by 1980 = 1.36%. That is the HA on the dp/dc bet.

*****************************************************************************************

If trying to do a 3 point Molly/Dolly, it'd take somewhere around 600 shooters to make 1980 line bets. I don't know the math, but that'd be close to 5,000 rolls. The question is how to best get to 50 bets ahead before losing 25+ bets. I can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance. If the Don't odds bets resolve as a win much more frequently than the Do odds, betting with Don't odds may be the way there.

link to original post

Pure speculation. It has NEVER been done. It is a fantasy. If not, go to the tables and perform what you have posted. Perhaps you could set up the posted scenario and document it. Shouldn't take more than several lifetimes.

tuttigym

Quote:ChumpChangeWhat I copied/wrote above the line is the expert math. If you don't believe it, I'm gonna have to say you're trolling but I never bother with mods.

link to original post

I did not post I don't believe it; I posted it has never been PERFORMED at the tables and for you or someone to produce and perform your scenario. Can you do that?

tuttigym

I usually lose 25 line bets with odds in a much shorter amount of time while playing the Do side, I think it's bad luck. I should try the Don'ts and see if I can get a much higher win rate going. When my session starts off with losing 10 points in a row on a single PL with 2X odds bet, that's variance. The HA may be $1.40 on the ten $10 PL bets, but if I was betting 2X odds that's a $300 loss.

Quote:ChumpChangeI told you what the simplest math expects from 1980 rolls. Beyond that, it's variance which is not the point of the HA calculations.

link to original post

"Variance" always happens in craps, and the "math" never shows up or is performed.

tuttigym

If you could bet the opposite of Big Red, meaning you win if the next roll is not 7, and a win paid 1 to 10, how would you evaluate that bet? Since there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose, does that give an advantage to the player ?

You don’t seem to grasp the concept of “average”Quote:tuttigym

Silverchip: Thanks for the response. My problem with your analysis is that a player cannot lose 14.1 c on a $10 PL wager or any other PL wager regardless of size. ]

For instance, American families have an average of 1.94 children though there is no possible way for a family to actually have 1.94 children. It’s an average

nope. bet the odds to reduce the edgeQuote:ChumpChangeI can hear Ace mention bet the odds to increase variance.

link to original post

Quote:Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house

WRONG

If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.

You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.

You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%

Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.

Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%

Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?

Oh, that's right. There's no one left.

Half the time Ace2 is being a wiseguy, repeating comments he finds ridiculous, then we start thinking it's what he really thinks. In this case, when you quoted him, you clipped off the link to that post, so I don't know. I wouldn't think Ace2 really believes the statement quoted.Quote:TankoQuote:Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house

WRONG

If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.

You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.

You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%

Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.

Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%

Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?

Oh, that's right. There's no one left.

link to original post

Quote:odiousgambitHalf the time Ace2 is being a wiseguy, repeating comments he finds ridiculous, then we start thinking it's what he really thinks. In this case, when you quoted him, you clipped off the link to that post, so I don't know. I wouldn't think Ace2 really believes the statement quoted.

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Appeared to me as though he did. It's on this page.

It was in response to TG saying he would not be playing the PL on the come out.

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Quote:TankoQuote:Ace2During comeout you have 67% chance of winning a PL bet, or 33% advantage over the house

WRONG

If we had a 67% chance of winning a PL bet or a 33% advantage over the house on the come out, we'd all be making PL and Come bets somewhere on every roll right now.

You never have more than a 49.3% chance of winning a PL bet.

You only have a 22% or 2 in 9 chance of winning on the come out roll. Not 67%

Your chance of losing is 11% on the come out.

Once the Point is considered, the odds of winning are 49.3%

Why doesn't anyone call him on this stuff?

Oh, that's right. There's no one left.

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DURING COMEOUT you have 8 ways to win (7/11) a PL bet and 4 ways to lose (2,3,12). 8 / (8 + 4) =~ 67%

Once a point is established, you have either a 33%, 40% or 45.5% chance of winning depending on which point was established.

49.3% is the chance of winning a PL bet irrespective of when/how it’s resolved. This is the only % that matters since you have no control over when it’s resolved and cannot withdraw it after a point is established. But some people like to look at the bet in separate stages

Quote:Ace2DURING COMEOUT you have 8 ways to win (7/11) a PL bet and 4 ways to lose (2,3,12). 8 / (8 + 4) =~ 67%

That doesn't translate to a 67% chance of winning the comeout. It is still 8 in 36 or 22%.

What you do have is twice as good a chance of winning on the come out, than losing. But you still only have a 22% chance of winning , versus an 11% chance of losing on the come out

Considering the point numbers brings the chance of winning the PL bet to 49.3%