Gaming Casinos (state of the states)

According to the AGA State of the States report there are 13 states without either a (1) Racetrack Casino, a (2)Tribal Casino, or a (3) Land-based or Riverboat Casino

New England
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts

Industrial (soon to change)
Ohio

Middle Southern
Maryland
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee

Deep South
South Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas

West
Utah
Hawaii

============================
Texas has only a single tribal casino

Leaving Utah and Hawaii off the list, do you think that all the remaining states will have gaming in ten years? Some people think there is going to be a reaction against casinos and a new era of prohibition.

Revenue from commercial casinos for CY2009, by state.

Nevada	$10,393
New Jersey	$3,943
Indiana	$2,799
Mississippi	$2,465
Louisiana	$2,456
Pennsylvania	$1,965
Missouri	$1,730
Illinois	$1,429
Iowa	$1,381
Michigan	$1,339
Colorado	$735
South Dakota	$102
Kansas	$2

Revenue from commercial and indian casinos for CY2009, by market

1 Las Vegas Strip	$5,550
2 Atlantic City, N.J.	$3,943
3 Chicagoland, Ind./Ill.	$2,092
4 Connecticut	$1,448
5 Detroit	$1,339
6 St. Louis, Mo./Ill.	$1,050
7 Tunica/Lula, Miss.	$997
8 Biloxi, Miss.	$834
9 Shreveport, La.	$780
10 Boulder Strip, Nev.	$774
11 Kansas City, Mo. (includes St. Joseph)	$758
12 Reno/Sparks, Nev.	$715
13 Lawrenceburg/Rising Sun/Belterra, Ind.	$691
14 Lake Charles, La.	$663
15 New Orleans, La.	$653
16 Black Hawk/Central City, Colo.	$596
17 Yonkers, N.Y.	$541
18 Downtown Las Vegas, Nev.	$524
19 Laughlin, Nev.	$493
20 Council Bluffs, Iowa	$431

South Carolina has massive Video Poker machines in bar rooms... made headlines there.
South Carolina also has atleast one, possibly two, day boats that go into international waters and return.

ALAN FREEMAN reports from the only major jurisdiction to have outlawed gaming machines

By ALAN FREEMAN
Monday, June 27, 2005

South Carolina eliminated VLTs after baby died as mom gambled

If anything sealed the fate of video poker in South Carolina, it was the sad tale of Joy Baker, a 10-day-old baby who suffocated in a car while her mother played the machines at a roadside casino in August of 1997.

"Precious little Joy is dead because her mom is addicted to video poker,"
read the newspaper ad from the Palmetto Family Council....

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- If anything sealed the fate of video poker in South Carolina, it was the sad tale of Joy Baker, a 10-day-old baby who suffocated in a car while her mother played the machines at a roadside casino in August of 1997.

"Precious little Joy is dead because her mom is addicted to video poker," read the newspaper ad from the Palmetto Family Council, a right-wing Christian group that took a leading role in the subsequent campaign to rid South Carolina of the machines. The ad showed a devastated Sergeant Julius Baker in his soldier's uniform clutching a photo of his daughter.

"Video poker took this little girl's life and destroyed this family," the ad continued. "Video poker is an insidious evil that tears at our State's soul like a cancer. . .. For the sake of our families and the health of our State, we must get rid of video poker."

"It was everywhere," said state Senator Wes Hayes, who lobbied against video poker, as electronic gaming machines or video lottery terminals are called here. "It's the crack cocaine of gambling. We had bankruptcies, we
had suicides."

"It was out of control and the people of South Carolina were sick of it," Sen. Hayes said.

On July 1, 2000, South Carolina's 38,000 video poker machines were declared illegal by a state court after a concerted campaign led by churches, politicians and the business community. That made South Carolina the only major jurisdiction in North America that has lived with VLTs, and then outlawed them.

As the campaign against this form of gambling gains momentum in Nova Scotia -- victims' families are holding a press conference today to tell their stories -- South Carolina's experience shows that acute gambling problems do decline with a ban, although they do not disappear.

Campaigners against South Carolina's video poker industry are the first to admit that being unregulated in their state made the industry particularly vulnerable, and that banning it in Canada, where several provincial governments depend on VLT revenues, will be a much bigger challenge.

In South Carolina, the industry began booming in the 1980s, after a wily politician and friend of the gambling industry slipped a tiny amendment into a state budget bill that suddenly made it possible for the machines to pay out cash jackpots, which had previously been illegal.

Video-poker machines were soon ubiquitous. There were virtually no rules and even the limited regulations that existed were routinely ignored by the owners, who moved the units into convenience stores, truck stops and makeshift roadside casinos.

A law was passed setting a limit of five machines for each establishment, which was defined as an enclosure with an electric meter. Faced with the rule, owners simply set up plywood partitions in their "casinos" and gave each a separate meter, each with five video poker machines.

By 1999, there were an estimated 38,000 video-poker machines in the state, or about one for every 100 residents, and more than in all of Canada. By contrast, Nova Scotia has only 3,800 VLTs (due to be reduced to 3,000 by November), a much smaller penetration rate even considering South Carolina's larger population.

"It was like cancer. It had spread all over the state," said Robert Stewart, chief of South Carolina's State Law Enforcement Division, which acts as the equivalent of the state police.

"We never had a regulated system in South Carolina," Mr. Stewart said. "What we had was uncontrollable gambling that was allowed by a loophole in the law. . .. It was a nightmare because there was no law to enforce. . .. It either had to be regulated or eliminated." Five years after the ban took effect, Mr. Stewart said that police are still confiscating 100 machines a month that are being operated illegally. They are sent to a warehouse where 3,500 of the machines are stored, awaiting court orders allowing them to be destroyed.

Despite the persistence of a video-poker underground, Mr. Stewart said the scourge is over. "The associated criminal problem is minimal compared to the terrible problem we had," he said.

Psychologist Frank Quinn, who did extensive research on the addiction problems associated with video poker, said the ban has been effective. "There is only one Gamblers Anonymous group in Columbia [the state capital] now and at one time there were four or five," he said, adding "I almost never see anyone with a gambling addiction."

"There weren't as many people hurting so there weren't as many people coming" to Gamblers Anonymous meetings, according to Alex, a recovering video-poker addict who remains active in the organization.

Alex, who preferred not to be identified by his real name, used to drive daily from his home just over the boundary in North Carolina to gamble on South Carolina's video poker machines. "I lost everything that I had and that my family had. I'd go before work, during work and after work." He blames video poker for his gambling addiction. "I never played the lottery. I never played the casinos. I never sport-bet. That [video poker] was my whole expertise."

Because the industry was privately run and virtually unregulated, the state government received little in the way of revenue from video poker. That lack of tax revenue actually made it easier to ban the machines in South Carolina than it is in jurisdictions where they have become cash cows for government.

"The state was getting peanuts," Mr. Quinn said. "This was a $3-billion (U.S.) or $4-billion-a-year industry and the state was getting only $62-million a year."

Rev. Tom Grey, executive director of the National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling and a tireless campaigner against gambling for the past 14 years, said that because of the social damage they cause, VLTs should be
the easiest form of gambling to eliminate. "The difficulty is that Canadian provincial governments are addicted to these damn things," Mr. Grey said. "Once the provinces are addicted, how do you root them out?"

"The biggest addiction to the machines comes from the politicians," said Rev. Regi Thackston, a retired Methodist minister from Sumter, S.C., who helped co-ordinate his church's campaign against video poker. "They don't
want to raise taxes so what they do is develop a regressive tax. It's a tax on the poor."

In South Carolina, the video-poker industry was so anxious to hook the state that it actually proposed sharing the profits with the state in the form of higher taxes. "The strategy of the gambling industry had been to
push through legislation to tax them," said Cindi Ross Scoppe, associate editor of The State, a South Carolina newspaper. "They knew that if they could get the state addicted to the revenue, they would stay in business."

In South Dakota, where gambling provides 10 per cent of state revenues, efforts to ban VLTs have failed at the polls after voters figured they would rather live with the social problems rather than pay higher taxes.

Ms. Scoppe said that her newspaper campaigned editorially against video poker in South Carolina, not just because of the social costs but because the video-poker operators were corrupting the political process through extensive contributions to the coffers of friendly legislators.

Also essential to the success of the campaign was the business community, which decided that the industry was hurting worker productivity and damaging South Carolina's image in the quest for outside investors.

"We realized that it was an industry that South Carolina could not afford," said Paula Harper-Bethea, former chairwoman of the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce. "It was the first time in the history of South Carolina that
such a wide spectrum of special interests came together over one issue. "Video poker was affecting the quality of life here," Ms. Harper-Bethea said. "You could go into a 7-Eleven on any street corner and play video poker. . .. The social costs were absolutely horrendous."

"I don't know if I had ever seen as many of the churches as well organized and energized as this before," Ms. Scoppe said, noting that the issue attracted not only conservative Christians but more liberal churches as well. "Practically every mainstream denomination was involved in it in some way."

The end of video poker did not eliminate all gambling in South Carolina. Soon after, a referendum was passed establishing a state lottery with revenues dedicated to education, but the consensus is that addiction problems are nowhere as acute as they were with video poker.

Nor do experts believe that Internet gambling has the same corrosive effects. For one thing, many of the victims of video poker are too poor to have home computers and Internet access nor do they have the credit needed to participate in on-line gaming.

As for the economic impact of banning the machines, William Thompson, a professor of public administration at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who specializes in the impact of gambling, believes that VLTs bring no net economic benefit to a state like South Carolina or a province like Nova Scotia.

"They're not good for the economy and they're not good for the social fabric," he said. "I can assure you that you get absolutely no tourists to come to the Maritimes because of VLTs. My advice would be to get rid of all of them."

Gambling does have its addictive nature, absolutely. Slot machines are designed to have bells and whistles (literally) to give you a rush when you lose and a desire to play more when you don't. Chances of winning are not labeled on any machine. Slot machines offer you a reasonable win if you hit the jackpot, and you have a chance of winning the jackpot on any pull.

I think that a government who allows gaming to go on has to recognize its value as an entertainment device and has the responsibility to protect its citizens from addiction. For that reason, one has to ask yourself "is a gaming device the type of entertainment you want to offer in a convenience store, bar, gas station", etc. For me, these type of gaming devices (scratch tickets, lottery tickets as well) are simply taxes on those who don't know better. And for those who get addicted to these things (and tons of people are), some run the risk of financial ruin and hardship, and I think the government (who directly benefits from the sales of these items) has an ethical responsibility to not collect its operating revenues that way.

I have no problem with a hospital running a lottery to get capital funds or a charity to hold a monte carlo night to collect money. I do have a problem with the government running lotteries, scratch tickets, and video lottery terminals in order to supplement its revenue.

The difference between a lottery ticket and a VLT is that the VLT provides the immediate rush and triggers to fuel an addiction with no stop gap on the VLT itself. Lottery tickets have the same risk but the reward is delayed substantially until the draw. Scratch tickets are also a delayed reaction in that most people will take them home and play them there to find out if they won, then take them back on the next opportunity. But there is a small segment of the population who will buy their scratch tickets at the store, do them at a counter, change them in, purchase more, and do the same, until their bank account is drained. There is no policing of this activity; the store (in Ontario) receives a commission for every ticket that they sell and it becomes a substantial part of their revenue.

Quote: pacomartin

Leaving Utah and Hawaii off the list, do you think that all the remaining states will have gaming in ten years?

Yep. It'll be just like the lottery was 20-30 years ago. I believe New Hampshire was the first to start one. All the states followed suit, except HI and UT. They will see the tax dollars rolling in to the other states and will grab their piece of the pie.

Quote:

Some people think there is going to be a reaction against casinos and a new era of prohibition.

Maybe, but like you said, 37 states have it and there haven't been any massive problems so far. Plus, the last prohibition didn't work too well...

I think sports betting and poker will be (and should be) the next dominoes to fall.

Quote: boymimbo

Scratch tickets are also a delayed reaction in that most people will take them home and play them there to find out if they won, then take them back on the next opportunity. But there is a small segment of the population who will buy their scratch tickets at the store, do them at a counter, change them in, purchase more, and do the same, until their bank account is drained.

Small?

I think you underestimate the number of people that will recycle their winners until they run out.

They may not continue until their bank account is drained, but often will continue until they run out of winners to cash in.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: boymimbo

Scratch tickets are also a delayed reaction in that most people will take them home and play them there to find out if they won, then take them back on the next opportunity. But there is a small segment of the population who will buy their scratch tickets at the store, do them at a counter, change them in, purchase more, and do the same, until their bank account is drained.

Small?

I think you underestimate the number of people that will recycle their winners until they run out.

They may not continue until their bank account is drained, but often will continue until they run out of winners to cash in.

I quite agree. It seems that at least 1/3rd of time I walk into a gas station, somebody (who looks as though they can't afford it) is over to the side by the ticket counter, scratching away. Those things are as addictive as a machine IMO, but yet you don't see many people calling it a scourge that the gov't is ripping people off with games that have a 40% HA.

Quote: ruascott

I quite agree. It seems that at least 1/3rd of time I walk into a gas station, somebody (who looks as though they can't afford it) is over to the side by the ticket counter, scratching away. Those things are as addictive as a machine IMO, but yet you don't see many people calling it a scourge that the gov't is ripping people off with games that have a 40% HA.

Sometimes government can be as bad as the mafia. I know they would take exception to that charge as they are dedicating the profits to good deeds. Not only are they happy to take 40% to 50% house averages, if you go to their websites and see how much they pay to private companies to manage the lottery programs you would be shocked. Nevada casino corporations could only dream about making profit percentages to equal what these companies are getting.

The Las Vegas Sands 3000 machines in their Bethlehem PA casino make more than the 3000 machines in the Venetian/Palazzo complex in Vegas. But the state takes over half the money. With that kind of investment the state doesn't care how tight the machines are (within state law). Without competition and without any incentive on the state's part their is absolutely no motivation to use the chip sets that return a larger percentage.

Vegas tourism is paying the price now. The slots have to be competitive in Nevada. There are over 190K slots in the state. But people who are used to their local slot club, are increasingly turned off by the idea of playing slots.

Quote: pacomartin

Vegas tourism is paying the price now. The slots have to be competitive in Nevada. There are over 190K slots in the state. But people who are used to their local slot club, are increasingly turned off by the idea of playing slots.

The very low tax rate on casino revenue in Nevada, and the extreme competition, certainly would mean that slots in Vegas would be "looser" than their counterparts in other states. Do you think it would be a good idea for Vegas casinos to do an advertising blitz to try and lure these local slot players away simply by stating that their slots are much looser? They don't have to outright denigrate local places, but just point out that their slots pay out very well and you have a better chance of hitting a jackpot.

Even though the machines pay back more to the player, I think the increase in sheer volume would mean increased revenue--although, not being a casino manager, I couldn't say for sure. However, a similar effect happened back in the 1960's with blackjack, after Ed Thorp's "Beat the Dealer" came out and people discovered card counting. Although it was ostensibly a way to beat the game, Vegas blackjack profits actually increased due to the sheer volume of people who went there to try counting, and failed because they couldn't do it right and/or they underestimated how big of a bankroll one needs in order to do it.

Well that always comes up with the Indian Casinos in California. They swear that the Indian casino slots are as loose as Nevada or they couldn't be competitive. But no data is released to verify that statement.

I am not a slot player myself, as I think they are stupid, but I am inclined to believe that the local slot clubs offer a convenient, if mediocre experience. Although a hardcore percentage will travel to Vegas to search out looser slots, they are overwhelmed by the millions who are no longer excited by the experience and don't bother to either come to Vegas or to play while they are here.

The balance between payback and volume is pretty much art. We have had long discussions about blackjack. I pointed out that not only has the drop in blackjack been much worse than almost every other game, but it has been unrelenting in it's fall over the last 29 months. There was only a brief pause for one month when the movie "21" came out.

In a similar way the penny slot craze seems to have undermined that business. Although they are very popular and they have high HA, the overall revenue on the Vegas strip has crashed. I think that people are shifting their time to playing a game at the expense of the industry.

The El Cortez in downtown Vegas (the oldest purpose built casino hotel in Vegas) will show you a certified analysis that their slots are 29% looser than the Clark county average, I think that many people won't play there because it is in a rough part of town.

Quote:

Because the industry was privately run and virtually unregulated, the state government received little in the way of revenue from video poker.

This fact is rather astonishing. It's really hard to believe the legislators could be that dumb.

Quote: odiousgambit

This fact is rather astonishing. It's really hard to believe the legislators could be that dumb.

That is sort of the problem with legislation. Once an activity gets started whether it is gambling, riding motorcycles without a helmet, or putting in revenue producing apartments in part of your house, then eventually people think they have the right to that activity (tax free).

Quote: pacomartin

Well that always comes up with the Indian Casinos in California. They swear that the Indian casino slots are as loose as Nevada or they couldn't be competitive. But no data is released to verify that statement.

I am not a slot player myself, as I think they are stupid, but I am inclined to believe that the local slot clubs offer a convenient, if mediocre experience. Although a hardcore percentage will travel to Vegas to search out looser slots, they are overwhelmed by the millions who are no longer excited by the experience and don't bother to either come to Vegas or to play while they are here.

The balance between payback and volume is pretty much art. We have had long discussions about blackjack. I pointed out that not only has the drop in blackjack been much worse than almost every other game, but it has been unrelenting in it's fall over the last 29 months. There was only a brief pause for one month when the movie "21" came out.

In a similar way the penny slot craze seems to have undermined that business. Although they are very popular and they have high HA, the overall revenue on the Vegas strip has crashed. I think that people are shifting their time to playing a game at the expense of the industry.

The El Cortez in downtown Vegas (the oldest purpose built casino hotel in Vegas) will show you a certified analysis that their slots are 29% looser than the Clark county average, I think that many people won't play there because it is in a rough part of town.

I'm am still convinced that the proliferation of 6/5 BJ is killing the game in Vegas. Sure, on a busy night on the Strip, you might find many tourists filling up those tables, but the impact overall has to be negative.

I've looked back over the Indiana numbers, and the BJ numbers haven't decreased at all over the last few years. In fact they March 2010 numbers were up about 3% over March 09 numbers. The diminishing popularity of BJ seems to be a Vegas issue.

Quote: ruascott

I'm am still convinced that the proliferation of 6/5 BJ is killing the game in Vegas. Sure, on a busy night on the Strip, you might find many tourists filling up those tables, but the impact overall has to be negative.

I've looked back over the Indiana numbers, and the BJ numbers haven't decreased at all over the last few years. In fact they March 2010 numbers were up about 3% over March 09 numbers. The diminishing popularity of BJ seems to be a Vegas issue.

BJ id way down in every corner of Nevada from the strip, to downtown, to Reno, to Laughlin.

My observation was that blackjack started going down 6 months before slots and baccarat, and has dropped unrelentingly every month so that by percentage it is way over slots. The only brief respite was the month the movie 21 was released two years ago, and that only gave it a temporary 1.4% boost.

Vegas blackjack was simply hit on all sides. The devaluation of the game was certainly a big factor. However, since it is the table game of choice for most non-gamers, they simply cut out play early in favor of either slots or no play at all.

But I do think the strip needs to guarantee that there will be no annoying rule changes at the $25 dollar level at least. The casinos should do this voluntarily to try to bring the game back up.

I also think that there should be an iron clad rule that $1 and up slot games are all set at the 97% level or higher. Every single slot machine on the strip. That is not that big of a change since there are only about 6800 slot machines like this left (out of of 49.5K) and they only generate 15% of the total slot revenue. The multi-denomination machines are the biggest group.

But those 6800 machines would represent a contract with the player, and if chooses to play at that level, he knows what he is getting. It would give an alternative to stemming the nearly billion dollar

Frank and I kind of disagree on this. I don't think the 6-5 game did anything to Vegas except create a boom for the small-time players who used to play just as badly on the 3-2 tables. Perhaps the negative impact was that it forced the players who knew basic strategy and to know 3:2 games are better than 6:5 games play at higher denominations at the larger casinos.

What I actually think is that blackjack is the game hit hardest by the recession, for a number of reasons:

(1) It is played by the most people (by volume) and is represented as the most popular table game (by number of games), by far.

(2) The game is played by a wide cross section of the population by all age groups. Other casino games are played by people who frequent a casino more often as it requires more knowledge to play these games and don't suffer as much as they are played by more hard-core gamblers who are willing to spend the money despite the recession.

(3) Pai-Gow and Baccarat revenue need to be discounted as they are played mostly by an Asian population who are immune to the recession (or were flown in from Macau to play in Vegas for tax reasons).

(4) Indeed, the proliferation of 6-5 games at lower denominations and making good games available only at higher denominations replaced the recreational basic strategy player with tourists who don't know how to play the game.

(5) The proliferation of table games around the country allow people to play 21 at home and therefore, with the recession, more people are staying home to play 21. People who are coming to Vegas are coming not just to gamble, but because Vegas is a destination for the non-gaming reasons.

The problem is that we are all guessing since we don't have any hard data. If you had some statistics on the progress of the 6:5 games vs. the 3:2 games you would have a better idea of what was happening. Since the gaming commission chooses not to release that data (or doesn't collect it), there is no way to know for certain.

I don't actually disagree with any of the above statements, I just think that the devaluation of the game is also part of the formula. At the same time, the widespread belief that the slots have been tightened since the recession began has also hurt slots. There is no direct evidence for this charge either.

In an earlier post, I said that the strip casinos should band together and make a guarantee that all the slots set for $1, $5, $25, $100 should pay out above 97%. Not an average, but every single one of them. These slots are less than 15% of the total number on the strip, and currently represent 15% of the total slot revenue. But since the overall revenue is plunging (not as bad as blackjack) it means you might rope in some of the people who simply won't play slots. In addition you would have a marketing tool to solicit people away from their local slot club. The hard core players will simply play the higher denomination machines.

Maybe I'm an anomoly, I like to play BJ, but I'm a low-roller, and typically will only play $10...(and $5 sometimes if available). For the most part, I cannot go play BJ on the Vegas strip any longer, unless its in a downscale property like Sahara. My options are either go downtown, or just play something else like Craps. I used to enjoy 3 card poker w/the pair plus bet, but they've destroyed that one for me now with 1-3-6.

For a $10 player, the only thing really left to play is Craps on the strip, if you want a minimum HA game. I refuse to play 6-5. I refuse to play PP w/ 1-3-6. For me, personally, its taken a lot of the draw away from the LV Strip. Maybe I don't speak for the masses, but there has to be some people that feel the same way.

I think you do speak for the masses. Well, the casino owners don't seem to believe that the 6:5 is ruining the game, because it is spreading to downtown as well.

Quote: pacomartin

I think you do speak for the masses. Well, the casino owners don't seem to believe that the 6:5 is ruining the game, because it is spreading to downtown as well.

Where is it spreading downtown? I had read that may of the "pleasure pits" downtown were running 6/5, but everything else was still 3:2, even on $5 games (or less). I don't have a problem with the pleasure pits running it, since you are paying extra for the "entertainment".

Indian Slot Machines: New or used machines? If they buy them used, as many are, how do they get "tighter" chips inside them? If they buy them new, then I guess they can order the tightest chips available. Its a business wherein they don't have to release statistics to anyone and "looseness" of a slot machine is declared through the musings of publicity agents who issue press releases to the local papers. Indian casinos survive on geography! Not loose slots or honesty about slot returns. Slot players are largely ignorant and often perfectly willing to remain so. They want the Push A Button To Get A Reward. Lights, bells, whistles ... and drinks. They are there for entertainment, not money management, statistics or disciplined betting.

BJ decline: One wonders if the casinos striving to save money by not manning table games prompted a trend. Once casinos became convinced that five dollar tables were too high a cost to them, the pressure was on. The casinos didn't want large numbers of five dollar tables opened and they wanted the odds changed on them. Was this an economic necessity? I don't know. I just wonder if this affects the casinos customers in a uniform manner? I think not. After Beat The Dealer spent so long on the NYTimes best seller list, everybody started flocking to Vegas only to learn that there is a difference between their basement recreation room and the atmosphere and pace of a Vegas casino. Vegas may need a new bestseller now, but in reality the book would have to be marketed at retirement homes if it were to reach current players. For a long time blackjack was simply popular in all age groups and all ethnic groups. Now for whatever reasons, it simply does not seem to be popular. Is it Vegas itself that prompted this decline? I don't know.
Tuscany has a promotion which requires a bettor to play at a minimum wager of ten dollars. They could make the table a ONE dollar table and once the player pulled a white chip out of his pocket, the dealer need only explain about needing to bet ten dollars in order to be eligible for the bonus and the table would be a de-facto ten dollar table.
Maybe it was the manner in which 6:5 was introduced but it seems the casinos decided to attack their low roller players while assuming that there would be others in the general population who would take their place at the higher limit tables. I only have my general impressions rather than sufficient data but I no longer see BJ players as coming from every sector of the population.

Quote: FleaStiff

Indian Slot Machines: New or used machines? If they buy them used, as many are, how do they get "tighter" chips inside them? If they buy them new, then I guess they can order the tightest chips available.



BJ decline: One wonders if the casinos striving to save money by not manning table games prompted a trend.

Machines come with a chipset so you can change them out and get a different payback. I don't imagine they lose the chipset wen they sell them as used machines.

When the 6:5 trend started executives were under the impression that BJ tables were not pulling their weight since the same square footage with slot machines brought in so much more $$$.

I kind of like the unmanned Shufflemaster machines since at least you get 3:2 payouts.

Quote: ruascott

Maybe I'm an anomoly, I like to play BJ, but I'm a low-roller, and typically will only play $10...(and $5 sometimes if available). For the most part, I cannot go play BJ on the Vegas strip any longer, unless its in a downscale property like Sahara. My options are either go downtown, or just play something else like Craps. I used to enjoy 3 card poker w/the pair plus bet, but they've destroyed that one for me now with 1-3-6.

For a $10 player, the only thing really left to play is Craps on the strip, if you want a minimum HA game. I refuse to play 6-5. I refuse to play PP w/ 1-3-6. For me, personally, its taken a lot of the draw away from the LV Strip. Maybe I don't speak for the masses, but there has to be some people that feel the same way.

There is plenty of $10 3-2 blackjack available on the strip. The Bellagio offers it (there are no 6-5 games there), and most other games offer at least a couple of tables like that. They may be difficult to find on Saturday nights mind you, but during the week, they're pretty easy to find. Pai Gow poker at $15 might be a good option for you as well as the HA is only about 2.5% and the game goes fairly slow.

I agree with you about 3CP with the 1-3-6 payout... stupid.

Quote: pacomartin

When the 6:5 trend started executives were under the impression that BJ tables were not pulling their weight since the same square footage with slot machines brought in so much more $$$.

I've often liked the analogy of a casino renting its floor space out to a concessionaire. The Slots Department has to make a return on its square footage, but it is also subject to the same "load factor" considerations that an investor in a commercial building would face. A landlord can only rent out certain rentable areas and that rentable square footage has to support the non-rentable areas such as atriums, elevator shafts, janitorial closets, bathrooms, etc.

Its the same way with the slots department of a casino: that square footage has to support the wide aisles, the restrooms, the booze storage area, etc. It also has to support all the other items that the public perceives as being part of a casino. Sure there are places such as Slots-A-Fun that are virtually entirely slot machines but in reality the public seems to think that a casino requires the presence of table games as well as slot machines. The dice shooter who knows all there is to know about odds still expects to see flashing lights and hear the recorded sound of quarters hitting a loosened metal tray. He may think slot machine players are fools and that slot machines are beneath his dignity to even contemplate but they remain part of the festive atmosphere that defines a casino.

Its possible that in trying to eliminate tables that did not pull their weight the casino executives forgot that a mix of alternatives is required. Such a mix dampens the effect of the ebb and flow of gamblers and their whimsical behavior patterns. Having dealers stand at empty tables may be as bad as having them stand at a full five-dollar table, but its part of The Pencil's duties to keep the casino able to deal with the ebb and flow of customer demand.

In deciding to conduct a campaign against five dollar tables, the casinos may have failed to realize the impact that certain sectors of their customers had. High limits, 6:5 odds, lightning fast dealers may have accelerated a change in the demographics of people who trek to Vegas. Just because blue-haired ladies sitting at a slot machine with their social security checks are profitable doesn't mean the casino executives should suddenly consider slot machines to be the prime segment of a casino because gamblers come for the "experience" of Vegas, not just for their favorite slot machine.

Quote: FleaStiff

Its possible that in trying to eliminate tables that did not pull their weight the casino executives forgot that a mix of alternatives is required. Such a mix dampens the effect of the ebb and flow of gamblers and their whimsical behavior patterns. Having dealers stand at empty tables may be as bad as having them stand at a full five-dollar table, but it's part of The Pencil's duties to keep the casino able to deal with the ebb and flow of customer demand.

In deciding to conduct a campaign against five dollar tables, the casinos may have failed to realize the impact that certain sectors of their customers had. High limits, 6:5 odds, lightning fast dealers may have accelerated a change in the demographics of people who trek to Vegas. Just because blue-haired ladies sitting at a slot machine with their social security checks are profitable doesn't mean the casino executives should suddenly consider slot machines to be the prime segment of a casino because gamblers come for the "experience" of Vegas, not just for their favorite slot machine.

Very, very well said FleaStiff.

I think that the proliferation of other casinos outside of Las Vegas that offer better blackjack games is another factor that is changing the demographics. However, the downward trend in Blackjack started right around the start of the recession in late 2008, so you gotta think it is the recession that is the most important factor here.

Quote: boymimbo

the downward trend in Blackjack started right around the start of the recession in late 2008, so you gotta think it is the recession that is the most important factor here.

I think that's when the downward trend became most noticeable and perhaps that was because that segment of the gambling public was most susceptible to a recession. The retirees still had their pension checks, it was the yuppies that were hurting. Casinos cut back on housekeeping staff, drink service, comps, entertainment. Across the board cuts tarnished the image of Vegas casinos thus enhancing the existing trend of increased traffic for Indian casinos. Just as The Pencil has to make sure the casino is able to react to short term whims of gamblers, the casino has to be able to react to longer term trends. Keeping a Let It Ride table staffed when there are no players is pure hell for the dealer and detracts from all the other dealer's tokes, but it allows the casino some flexibility when a group of drunken businessmen suddenly decide to play Let It Ride. Keeping Blackjack as an available and enjoyable alternative is simply the same thing on a larger time scale. Did the economy accelerate and intensify what was happening. Almost certainly, but the trend to increased Indian casinos everywhere had started long before.

Quote: boymimbo

However, the downward trend in Blackjack started right around the start of the recession in late 2008, so you gotta think it is the recession that is the most important factor here.

The downward trend in blackjack began around October 2007. That is the reason I keep saying it led off the recession.

Quote: pacomartin

The downward trend in blackjack began around October 2007. That is the reason I keep saying it led off the recession.

I wonder what, if anything, might be hidden amongst these figures...

I understand that Sports Books can make money for a casino but that Race Books often do not bring in the revenue that a casino hopes for. Yet I also know that sports bettors have been complaining about a decline in the welcoming attitude in Sports Books in Vegas. Many sports bettors are told their business is not desired, some have artificial limits placed on them, some ticket writers clearly become very slow, some lines and limits are described as cowardly.

I understand that many casinos have long standing policies of ignoring complaints by dealers that non-smiling, non-English-Speaking dealers eat into the tokes and create an atmosphere of customer hostility towards the dealers and the game itself.

Even the Baccarat "blips" on that chart seem to take place at times that a Wall Street analyst would be prompted to think of "Window Dressing"... a term used on Wall Street to indicate artificial manipulation of one's position just prior to the end of an accounting period.

I wonder if we put all these rumors and grumbles together would we find real substance to the mismanagement allegations? The gambling expression "shot yourself in the foot" seems applicable to the entire industry.

Layoffs of needed personnel, working the remaining employees to death, watered down drinks, meaningless promotions dubbed "special offers", rule changes, elimination of certain non-performing games, institution of clearly loathed Resort Fees ... is it an industry-wide conspiracy or an industry-wide managerial incompetence?

Table Games revenue is falling... and the casinos should be the first to know it and the first to be concerned about it. Yet, are they really concerned? Have the casinos not heard grumbling about 6:5? Have the casinos really not heard their dealers complaining about working conditions? Have the casinos taken any SERIOUS measures to stem the decline in Table Games Revenue?

Oh yeah, when things got really bad some casinos went to a Three Dollar table but by then its just not enough.

I remember the days when an acquaintance threw a party and everyone showed up to enjoy the food, the booze, the amiable young ladies ... and everyone brought out decks of cards so that there were blackjack games all over the place! He was happy that the party was so successful because everybody was enjoying blackjack! That is how he measured the success of the party. Well, tastes change from time to time ... but I don't see the casinos as doing anything to re-vitalize Blackjack. Can't they hire some sports figure to whip out a deck of cards in a video or something? Can't they institute some real measures to stem the tide?

Quote: boymimbo

I think that the proliferation of other casinos outside of Las Vegas that offer better blackjack games is another factor that is changing the demographics.

I question that "better" blackjack games. I think its closer blackjack, its blackjack without being strip searched at an airport, its blackjack for a day rather than a week, but its not "better" blackjack. My experience with Indian casinos is that they are very poorly managed. Dealers and floor persons may have experience but they are not necessarily good at their jobs. Managerial policies are often absurd. I've received mailers with coupons that expired two weeks before the postmark date. I've seen promotions that omit vital information. I've had contradictory information given by phone operators and floor personnel ... and that continued for months!

So I don't think that the Indian casinos offer better blackjack. I don't think the Indian casinos do anything better, except geography!

Quote: FleaStiff

I wonder what, if anything, might be hidden amongst these figures...

Even the Baccarat "blips" on that chart seem to take place at times that a Wall Street analyst would be prompted to think of "Window Dressing"... a term used on Wall Street to indicate artificial manipulation of one's position just prior to the end of an accounting period.

Blackjack blips are very few after it began falling in October 2007. There was one in April 2008 when the movie 21 came out, and a very slight one in November 2009 that seems to be an barely anything. Otherwise the slide has been continuous. The thing that is striking about blackjack is that it began so early, is so consistently downward, and by percentage is so much worse than slots or the other collected table games. Individually there is some fluctuation (craps and roulette trend downward but with more ups and downs).

Baccarat blips are much more extreme. My basic contention is that the law of large numbers is less applicable. Table drop varies from $300 million to $1300 and win percentages vary from 7% to 17%. The very prominent blip in October 2007 was caused by an unusually high win percent (not table drop). The recovery in baccarat which began slowly in May 2008, and in earnest in July 2008 caught people a little by surprise. In August of 2008 the table drop in baccarat went over $1 billion for no explicable reason (no Asian holiday or big fight). Table drop then cleared a $billion again in December and in February 2010. The record breaking Feb 2010 Chinese New Year's was propelled largely by unprecedented 17% win percent.

Quote: PacoMartin

The downward trend in blackjack began around October 2007. That is the reason I keep saying it led off the recession.

What I was arguing is that the downturn in 21 compared to other table games really started in the fall of 2008, and noticeably in January 2009. The statistic I am noting is the change year-over-year money-in contribution from 21. You'll see that Blackjack starts to trail all other table games consistently starting in November 2008. I was trying to differentiate that Blackjack was subject to more recessionary pressure than other games.

Baseball attendance is also down everywhere this season as people cut back. Discretionary spending on entertainment is falling across the board in the states and gambling is part of that. Certainly Vegas was in its heyday before 911 and when the casinos weathered the effects from that in '02 to '08 they figured they could grow and expand endlessly, kind of like the housing bubble. Now with this recession they are suffering, but will they learn?