WoV Challenge -- Predict the price of gold on Jan 1, 2013.

Quote: CrystalMath

Well, it's almost over.

The horse race, coming into the stretch:

dtyst1 $1,654.32
JohnnyQ $1,625.25
minnesotajoe $1,620.00

As of today it is at $1659. As a reminder, here is a link to our predictions. If gold doesn't move much the rest of the year then it is looking like dtyst1 will win, at guess of $1,654.32.

p.s. Looks like o/g beat me to the punch.

$1666.84 was the spot price on 24 January 2012.

Hmm, what's it going to take for me to win this?

Quote: Ayecarumba

Hmm, what's it going to take for me to win this?

unfortunately for you, gold seems to like its current range [the link is probably not the official one for this thread]

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Quote: Wizard

Here are your predictions.

Member	Prediction
YoDiceRoll11	$2,776.00
thlf	$2,300.00
Johnzimbo	$2,131.41
bigfoot66	$2,101.00
pacomartin	$2,030.00
WizardofEngland	$2,012.31
SONBP2	$2,012.00
mickpk	$2,001.00
appistapp1s	$1,955.21
calwatch	$1,950.00
CrystalMath	$1,899.00
Ayecarumba	$1,851.02
slyther	$1,823.00
ChampagneFireball	$1,774.01
dtyst1	$1,654.32
JohnnyQ	$1,625.25
minnesotajoe	$1,620.00
Asswhoopermcdaddy	$1,525.00
AcesAndEights	$1,500.00
SOOPOO	$1,486.00
duckmankilla	$1,436.59
P90	$1,400.00
Gazreal	$1,367.43
boymimbo	$1,340.00
EvenBob	$1,340.00
Avczilla	$1,302.00
Scotty71	$1,282.01
Boz	$1,280.00
AZDuffman	$1,238.46
odiousgambit	$1,201.00
ncfatcat	$820.00
s2dbaker	$642.88

I'm not playing in my own contest, but my unofficial guess is $1300.

Congrats to dtyst1. I was off by a little tiny bit. Notice the crowd sourcing on this. I think Nate Silver would have guessed the price from our predictions :)

Quote: JohnnyQ

Now not that the price of Gold is not going to affect all of us,
but how about another Wizard Challenge on the price of
gasoline over the same timeframe ?

I think I'll go with $ 3.89 for regular unleaded. And any
national average you pick is ok by me.

Fortunately I was about 50 cents too high on my
gas prediction. I think we are around $ 3.35
up here today.

ps:

I intend to claim the official title of "WoV Supreme Economic Prognosticator"
if dtyst1 is no longer an active member.

Perhaps he/she fell victim to an unfortunate home smelting incident ?

Quote: JohnnyQ

ps:

I intend to claim the official title of "WoV Supreme Economic Prognosticator"
if dtyst1 is no longer an active member.

Perhaps he/she fell victim to an unfortunate home smelting incident ?

It seems dtyst1 has only posted 5 times in 2012. It loos like you are runner-up.

I'm a very active... lurker!

Whoooooooo!!!

Quote: JohnnyQ

Fortunately I was about 50 cents too high on my
gas prediction. I think we are around $ 3.35
up here today.

I think we should be on the gaming markets. Macau's December numbers aren't posted yet, but they are up 13% based on the first 11 months. Last year they were up 42%.

Atlantic City is down 7.9% based on 11 months.

Quote: dtyst1

I'm a very active... lurker!

Whoooooooo!!!

I hope you see this while lurking.

Congratulations are in order for your superior abilities at forecasting the future price of precious metals. You had a conservative prediction, close to the middle of the pact Personally, I think the price would be lower at this point, but what do I know? As the winner, I hope you will come out of hiding and regale us with your wisdom of what went into your pick, and where gold will be on 12/31/13.

As a prize I would like to offer you one of the new Wizard of Odds polo shirts, which I purchased through RaleighCraps. If you don't want that the alternative will be a $25 cash option. With either choice you'll also get an autographed copy of my book. PM me with your choice.

Again, well done!

Thank You!!!

I really would like to be more active in this community. I'm usually the guy that only speaks up when I have something constructive to add. Thus, many of my posts have dealt with Pennsylvania casinos, with Rivers in Pitssburgh as my home casino.

Now that I have a couple trio ofnVegas trips under my belt and am getting fairly well adept at my games of choice (got my first [hopefully not last] v.p. royal flush last week) I'll have more to add to some of the discussions, here.

As people can probably tell, my only real choice was to ascertain if the price would be in the 1,500, 1,600, or 1,700 range. Looking at a 3 year volatility history and prediction, I decided on $1,600. After that, I knew there was no real chance of accurately predicting to the ten dollar range. So, as a slight nod to my desire of wagering a value on Jeopardy! that isn't a multiple of 100, I just ran the digits down to the cent.

I'm quite excited to be receiving an autographed copy of the book. Between, that and the shirt I'll be rolling up to tables with the ladies' mouths agap. I'll be sure to send you a PM.

Hopefully, I'll have the chance to exchange some gaming and gold futures predicting with you, on my next trip to Vegas, which will probably not be until the marathon in December.

An apology to everyone that may be disappointed that after all the posts and conversation that the winner was someone that didn't contribute a word to the discussion. I'll try to make it up by being more active in 2013.

Thanks, again.

Congratulations dtyst1!

What was the "official" final price? I heard reports that December 31 was a trading day in many markets, but perhaps, not all.

Gold seems to have been hit the worst by Bernanke, but I am not sure why. Glad I got out; but when to get back in?

Now just a little above $1300 [a 5% drop]

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Quote: odiousgambit

Gold seems to have been hit the worst by Bernanke, but I am not sure why. Glad I got out; but when to get back in?

Now just a little above $1300 [a 5% drop]

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Conventional wisdom says when the money printing presses are running around the world gold prices should go up......that idea was a trap for retail investors. The correlation use to work....not anymore.

The Wizard definitely got the upper hand, selling me 2 American Eagles when the spot price was at $1710/oz.

I still like having a small amount of physical gold and silver, about 5-10% of my total portfolio. I should have known better than to buy in during a craze...oh well.

But anyway, to build my position I purchased a bit more a few months ago. Managed to time it pretty good, locking in my purchase when the spot price was at $1200/oz, the lowest price of the past year. feelsgoodman.jpg