WoV Challenge -- Predict the price of gold on Jan 1, 2013.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:05:57 AM
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This challenge was inspired by the thread Will the Gold Bubble Burst?. The object is to predict the price of gold on Dec. 31, 2012. We'll use the Northwest Territorial Mint "ask price" at 5:00 pm on 12/31/11 as the source on the price of gold.
PM me your predictions by 12:01 a.m. Feb 1. The member who is closest will win his/her due fame on the board as a master economist and some token prize from me to be worked out later, or a donation to the charity of the winner's choice.
Predictions will be posted shortly after Feb 1.
PM me your predictions by 12:01 a.m. Feb 1. The member who is closest will win his/her due fame on the board as a master economist and some token prize from me to be worked out later, or a donation to the charity of the winner's choice.
Predictions will be posted shortly after Feb 1.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 26th, 2012 at 12:07:03 PM
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Only a few entries so far.
Per a comment by slyter, I should clarify that the Yahoo quoted price is the "future contract price" for the following month. Perhaps he can address any questions about it. He says this does not deviate much from the actual price.
Per a comment by slyter, I should clarify that the Yahoo quoted price is the "future contract price" for the following month. Perhaps he can address any questions about it. He says this does not deviate much from the actual price.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 26th, 2012 at 12:14:32 PM
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When does the gold futures contract settle? If it's the last day of the month, there could be a difference between the price on 12/31/12 (January's contract expiry) and 1/1/13 (february's contract trading as the prompt month). Also, is CBOT the market we'll use? Or Comex? Right now, the June 2012 contract is about $10/ounce different between the two markets.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 26th, 2012 at 12:20:59 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusWhen does the gold futures contract settle?
I was wondering about that too. I would accept slyther's guidance if we should specify a closing number not right on the cusp of a month change.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 26th, 2012 at 12:53:28 PM
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I think it's the London Spot Price at the close that's used as the "price of gold", not the futures.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 26th, 2012 at 1:00:17 PM
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Quote: boymimboI think it's the London Spot Price at the close that's used as the "price of gold", not the futures.
I hope you and slyther can figure out who is in error. The spot price seems more believable to me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 26th, 2012 at 1:36:09 PM
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January 26th, 2012 at 1:58:43 PM
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Quote: thlf[http://bullion.nwtmint.com/]
Why don't you use this. This is the price you can buy it for today.
Wow, coincidentally that is where I purchased my bullion a couple of years ago. It was a bit of a trek out to the sticks, but they were a very customer-friendly shop. This was when gold and silver were on the upswing and people were flocking to buy some.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
January 26th, 2012 at 3:09:07 PM
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It doesn't really matter to me what we use, just so long as all are in agreement (with such a valuable prize on the line!). Wizard was intending to use the Feb '12 Future which of course won't work. I think typically what you see quoted on CNBC, etc is the front-month future contract. (Feb for now, soon to change to March, etc)
Spot price is fine with me since it is fairly close to the front month future anyway. I suggest using the Ask price at that nwtmint site at 5:00pm PST on 12/31/11 as the final result. It looks like their premiums and liquidity are reasonable enough to give a true measure of current price.
I live not far from their building actually, have driven by it many times as I grew up in Federal Way, WA. Maybe I'll even go take a picture there.
Another option would be to use the GLD ETF which trades at roughly a 10/1 ratio with Gold. However with that there are management fees, etc associated with it so it is imperfect.
Spot price is fine with me since it is fairly close to the front month future anyway. I suggest using the Ask price at that nwtmint site at 5:00pm PST on 12/31/11 as the final result. It looks like their premiums and liquidity are reasonable enough to give a true measure of current price.
I live not far from their building actually, have driven by it many times as I grew up in Federal Way, WA. Maybe I'll even go take a picture there.
Another option would be to use the GLD ETF which trades at roughly a 10/1 ratio with Gold. However with that there are management fees, etc associated with it so it is imperfect.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:16:50 PM
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I would hesitate to use an ETF price for the reasons you listed.
IMO spot price should be where it's at.
This is my vote.
IMO spot price should be where it's at.
Quote: slytherI suggest using the Ask price at that nwtmint site at 5:00pm PST on 12/31/11 as the final result.
This is my vote.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
January 26th, 2012 at 3:18:37 PM
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oops make that 12/31/12 ;)
January 26th, 2012 at 5:29:50 PM
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Is 12/31/12 a trading day? It falls on a Monday before a holiday.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 26th, 2012 at 7:12:19 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaIs 12/31/12 a trading day? It falls on a Monday before a holiday.
It almost certainly isn't. I can look at the CME and ICE calendars tomorrow at work. I'd think that for our purposes, either the prompt month futures settlement on 12/28/12 or the cash price on 12/31/12 would be the official "price" for bet resolution purposes.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 26th, 2012 at 9:05:07 PM
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Quote: slytherI suggest using the Ask price at that nwtmint site at 5:00pm PST on 12/31/11 as the final result.
Okay, we'll go with that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 27th, 2012 at 1:47:40 PM
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I was going to suggest the price at the gold vending machine at the Golden Nugget... if the machine is still there.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 27th, 2012 at 1:57:17 PM
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You can get a good spot price quote at www.kitco.com. You really want to use the spot price not the futures as they can deviate quite a bit from spot.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
January 27th, 2012 at 2:38:45 PM
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Quote: WizardOkay, we'll go with that.
Wizard, you may want to edit the original post to reflect the change from Yahoo to nwtmint. Also, folks who have already submitted predictions should be given a chance to update their "final answer" untll the deadline.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 27th, 2012 at 3:38:38 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWizard, you may want to edit the original post to reflect the change from Yahoo to nwtmint. Also, folks who have already submitted predictions should be given a chance to update their "final answer" untll the deadline.
Good suggestion, I just changed that. In all fairness, if anybody want to resubmit his answer, go ahead.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 27th, 2012 at 5:54:09 PM
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Quote: WizardGood suggestion, I just changed that. In all fairness, if anybody want to resubmit his answer, go ahead.
Considering that gold changed in value by 40% in the last year, I can't imagine what difference it make which website you use.
January 27th, 2012 at 6:11:44 PM
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Quote: pacomartinConsidering that gold changed in value by 40% in the last year, I can't imagine what difference it make which website you use.
I agree, but it was easier to acquiesce than argue about it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 27th, 2012 at 7:07:47 PM
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Now not that the price of Gold is not going to affect all of us,
but how about another Wizard Challenge on the price of
gasoline over the same timeframe ?
I think I'll go with $ 3.89 for regular unleaded. And any
national average you pick is ok by me.
but how about another Wizard Challenge on the price of
gasoline over the same timeframe ?
I think I'll go with $ 3.89 for regular unleaded. And any
national average you pick is ok by me.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
January 27th, 2012 at 7:55:06 PM
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I'd be down with that. I do this with my friend. We try to predict the price. We use the forward-month contract price of RBOB on the NYMEX -- this is the closest thing you will get to actual gas.Quote: JohnnyQNow not that the price of Gold is not going to affect all of us,
but how about another Wizard Challenge on the price of
gasoline over the same timeframe ?
I think I'll go with $ 3.89 for regular unleaded. And any
national average you pick is ok by me.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
January 27th, 2012 at 8:10:41 PM
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Quote: teddysI'd be down with that. I do this with my friend. We try to predict the price. We use the forward-month contract price of RBOB on the NYMEX -- this is the closest thing you will get to actual gas.
So your guess is what ?
I propose that the winner gets a ride in a H2 limo
with the Wiz and all the models in his reviews !
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
January 28th, 2012 at 12:51:54 AM
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Quote: JohnnyQhow about another Wizard Challenge on the price of
gasoline over the same timeframe ?
Much harder. That gold will bust at *some* time is almost - almost - a given, just treacherous to predict when. [We will find out if someone predicted no bust, but upward, pretty soon for the challenge; I didnt, but that could win]. Oil? It sure has a way of shooting up when the economy starts rolling. I can't imagine that the economy won't be better over this timeframe, but it could still be an anemic upswing. Natural gas oversupply is a wild card. If the Wizard will do it, could be interesting!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 28th, 2012 at 6:47:58 AM
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Agreed Odious, I think not this year. 2013 has a good chance especially late, due to presumed increase (slooooooow) interest rates. I'm in through Kitco, and the spot prices there and basic charting are worth it. Tradition has it that the London Closing spot price is the price of the day. I think that should be used as a standard reference. If not already known, the NatGas folks are already tightening supply driving the market upwards. JMH dwt
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:46:38 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitMuch harder. That gold will bust at *some* time is almost - almost - a given, just treacherous to predict when.
Logically, doesn't everything have to bust sooner or later? When I was a teacher, we used to give students a problem where the Indians would invest the $24 (go Dutch Guilders) that they received on May 24, 1626 for Manhattan island. Even at a modest interest rate, the investment would be worth than the Assessed value of the land of Manhattan Island (not including buildings).
Exponential growth is never sustainable over the long term. It's just that the phrase "long term" has to be determined, and hence the difficulty with all endeavors.
So the price of gold must "correct" at some point.
January 28th, 2012 at 11:06:05 AM
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They received $24 [speciously converted from Guilders] worth of goods. Pretty hard to invest those, let alone find a person willing to give them interest on their money. Good hypothetical, though.Quote: pacomartinLogically, doesn't everything have to bust sooner or later? When I was a teacher, we used to give students a problem where the Indians would invest the $24 (go Dutch Guilders) that they received on May 24, 1626 for Manhattan island. Even at a modest interest rate, the investment would be worth than the Assessed value of the land of Manhattan Island (not including buildings).
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
January 28th, 2012 at 12:06:28 PM
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Quote: teddysGood hypothetical, though.
At 8% for 400 years you have over $500 trillion dollars, which is more than the GDP of the entire world.
Another factor that is cited is the number of people who make it on the Fortune 500 and then fall off it never to return. In theory the rate of increase (and sometimes decrease) to stay on the list is similar to many bank account interest rates. Of course, great wealth is not liquid, and is not in a bank account. It is surprisingly difficult to maintain for many people.
Thomas Malthus roughly 200 years ago decided that population growth was exponential, and he reasoned that the world's resources could only grow linearly. He concluded that behavior wasn't going to change, and sex wouldn't vanish, so the inevitable result could only be demographic catastrophe (pestilence, war, famine, and death). Of course he couldn't predict widespread birth control, or the fact that the world's food supply would grow exponentially for a while. Final outcome is yet to be determined, as we may have a Malthusian catastrophe yet.
Personally, I think gold will continue to remain high, but at some point leveling off. I think the "concept" of the value of gold is too ingrained in the human psyche.
I was reading that Zukerberg who at age 27 is the 52nd richest man on the planet is going to make a big leap in his standing when Facebook has their IPO. When you look at evidence like that, how can you say a "concept" is inherently unstable and people will ultimately wake up and realize that the item is of no value.
January 28th, 2012 at 2:11:43 PM
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Quote: pacomartinAt 8% for 400 years you have over $500 trillion dollars, which is more than the GDP of the entire world.
While I suspect that you have access to the data, I have no idea where to look, but my impression is that 8% annual interest would be immensely higher than what was available for any sort of "guaranteed" investment over most of those 400 years. I suspect that the 0.05% interest rate that Bank of America is currently paying on my checking account (or the 0.40% they are currently offering on a $100,000-balance money market account) is more representative of what banks paid for much of that period. That's if they paid interest at all -- having your money reasonably safe in a bank vault may have been the best deal you could have hoped for that didn't involve much risk of the principal. I think that late 20th century was the only time you could get anything close to 8% return on a secure investment.
Of course, if you are willing to gamble....
January 29th, 2012 at 6:54:59 AM
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Quote: DocWhile I suspect that you have access to the data, I have no idea where to look, but my impression is that 8% annual interest would be immensely higher than what was available for any sort of "guaranteed" investment over most of those 400 years.
Of course 8% is not realistic since no single person has even 0.1% of the world's GDP. The point of what I was saying is that no investment can grow exponentially for prolonged periods of time. All exponential growth must either bust or come to a serious slowdown.
But gold does not have to go back down to $500 an ounce. It could level off and stay at it's price for decades.
A guy told me once that Social Security was a "1+2+4+8 problem". For a man in retirement you needed 2 people working, and to support those 2 people in retirement you needed 4 people working, and so forth. So we had to keep immigration high to support social security. He seemed totally oblivious to the fact that he was talking about a unchecked exponential growth, and was fundamentally unsupportable.
January 29th, 2012 at 5:52:08 PM
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Quote: pacomartinBut gold does not have to go back down to $500 an ounce. It could level off and stay at it's price for decades.
It spent about two decades at a very flat price below $500/oz from about 1983-2004. This chart prices it in $/gm.
PS: note the line for constant 1971 dollars [edit]. Not so impressive there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 1st, 2012 at 11:31:29 AM
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As for the OP I will guess US$2280 London Spot Close on 01/01/2013.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
February 1st, 2012 at 11:31:44 AM
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It did, but certain events did start this inexorable clinb to $1750. I was buying in the $400 range about 2003-5. The last time I recommended it was after the 2008 Crash that dropped it from $950 to $750. Its more than doubled in less than 3.5 years. Theres talk of Quantitative Easing again, print-up $5T and buy bonds. If that happens my estimate is way low.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
February 1st, 2012 at 11:45:34 AM
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Quote: WizardPM me your predictions by 12:01 a.m. Feb 1.
Missed it by that much :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 1st, 2012 at 12:50:16 PM
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I've been running really busy with the Super Bowl and other stuff. I should have the predictions up later today, hopefully.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 1st, 2012 at 12:56:02 PM
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Quote: NareedA soul is a terrible thing to waste on religion
But you have no soul, you sold it to the Wiz..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 1st, 2012 at 3:36:32 PM
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Here are your predictions.
I'm not playing in my own contest, but my unofficial guess is $1300.
| Member | Prediction |
|---|---|
| YoDiceRoll11 | $2,776.00 |
| thlf | $2,300.00 |
| Johnzimbo | $2,131.41 |
| bigfoot66 | $2,101.00 |
| pacomartin | $2,030.00 |
| WizardofEngland | $2,012.31 |
| SONBP2 | $2,012.00 |
| mickpk | $2,001.00 |
| appistapp1s | $1,955.21 |
| calwatch | $1,950.00 |
| CrystalMath | $1,899.00 |
| Ayecarumba | $1,851.02 |
| slyther | $1,823.00 |
| ChampagneFireball | $1,774.01 |
| dtyst1 | $1,654.32 |
| JohnnyQ | $1,625.25 |
| minnesotajoe | $1,620.00 |
| Asswhoopermcdaddy | $1,525.00 |
| AcesAndEights | $1,500.00 |
| SOOPOO | $1,486.00 |
| duckmankilla | $1,436.59 |
| P90 | $1,400.00 |
| Gazreal | $1,367.43 |
| boymimbo | $1,340.00 |
| EvenBob | $1,340.00 |
| Avczilla | $1,302.00 |
| Scotty71 | $1,282.01 |
| Boz | $1,280.00 |
| AZDuffman | $1,238.46 |
| odiousgambit | $1,201.00 |
| ncfatcat | $820.00 |
| s2dbaker | $642.88 |
I'm not playing in my own contest, but my unofficial guess is $1300.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 1st, 2012 at 3:47:56 PM
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Thanks Wizard. What if there is a tie?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 1st, 2012 at 3:58:10 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThanks Wizard. What if there is a tie?
There will be a split prize. There will also be a Booby prize if anybody gets it exactly right -- to be determined later.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 1st, 2012 at 4:02:40 PM
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Hello,
i wanted to pm you the prediction as well but forgot. Just for the record it would have been 1462.24 :-))
i wanted to pm you the prediction as well but forgot. Just for the record it would have been 1462.24 :-))
February 1st, 2012 at 4:06:19 PM
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I'm not interested in boobies.Quote: WizardThere will be a split prize. There will also be a Booby prize if anybody gets it exactly right -- to be determined later.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 1st, 2012 at 4:14:52 PM
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Quote: WizardThere will also be a Booby prize if anybody gets it exactly right -- to be determined later.
How about a facsimile $100 bill with a portrait of Bob Barker? It would be a fitting prize for getting the price right :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 1st, 2012 at 4:36:16 PM
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Quote: NareedHow about a facsimile $100 bill with a portrait of Bob Barker? It would be a fitting prize for getting the price right :)
If going that route I'd rather a pic of Hollie Hallstram on it.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
February 1st, 2012 at 4:48:28 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerI'm not interested in boobies.
I'm thinking the Booby Prize will an evening at Sapphire's.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 1st, 2012 at 9:45:04 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm thinking the Booby Prize will an evening at Sapphire's.
Commeeaawwwwnnnnn $1823!!!!
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:21:19 AM
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Quote: WizardI'm thinking the Booby Prize will an evening at Sapphire's.
How about an evening with a hooker
named Sapphire...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 2nd, 2012 at 10:42:18 AM
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Quote: EvenBobHow about an evening with a hooker
named Sapphire...
Are you sure you want to win EvenBob... You'd have to split with boymimbo.....
... and I'm pretty sure Sapphire is a dude.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
March 25th, 2012 at 10:08:21 AM
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Nice!
March 25th, 2012 at 12:12:57 PM
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Lets get a facsimile $102 bill with the Wiz's portrait on it.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 25th, 2012 at 4:19:31 PM
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Quote: EvenBobHow about an evening with a hooker named Sapphire...
I was at a Bovada party on Friday. Somehow the question came up how do you spell sapphire. A cute blonde model spelled it correctly. I incorrectly corrected her, saying it had on p. A Bovada employee took my side. So we made a bet of a shot of vodka on it. So, we looked it up on Wikipedia, and sure enough, she was right. I knew the strip club spelled it with two Ps, but thought it was a deliberate misspelling. The Bovada guy did his shot, but she let me do 30 push ups instead, as I try to drink in moderation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
