Yoyomama
Yoyomama
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March 14th, 2011 at 2:26:31 PM permalink
I have never been married, but was very surprised to hear how the odds of failure only increase on marriage 2, 3 or more. With 1st marriages breaking up at 50% rate currently, I thought most people would have done a better job on 2nd or 3rd pick.

Just doesn't make sense. Any thoughts or experience?

Good news is, a girl I really liked just told me she got engaged. I was bummed til I heard this news. Guess all I have to do is wait around!!
FleaStiff
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March 14th, 2011 at 2:59:45 PM permalink
Is there a quitter personality? Or do people just make the same mistake again? Or once having been through the upheaval of a divorce do people just figure its not such an unknown fear anymore?
SFB
SFB
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March 14th, 2011 at 3:01:09 PM permalink
Usually the person with the problem, has just gotten remarried.

After the third or fourth marriage, you know what the common denominator is.

SFB
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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March 14th, 2011 at 3:05:37 PM permalink
Been married for years to my second wife, a wonderful Thai lady.
Now things are going as smooth as silk for the past two years. Make no assumption about the second try.
Four and above - I can see a demominator, - not one or two.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
AZDuffman
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March 14th, 2011 at 3:58:40 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I have never been married, but was very surprised to hear how the odds of failure only increase on marriage 2, 3 or more. With 1st marriages breaking up at 50% rate currently, I thought most people would have done a better job on 2nd or 3rd pick.

Just doesn't make sense. Any thoughts or experience?



Not suprising to me for two reasons. First is past behavior indicated future behavior, so someone hard to live with before will not change. Second, no matter how common there still remains some stigma to divorce, at the least on a personal level you are admitting failure. Once you pull the trigger once you are not as afraid of the unknown of divorce.

I still remember one woman I worked with was 29 and divorced twice already. If she married again I would send the guy a christmas card for taking her off the market. eeegh.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
EvenBob
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March 15th, 2011 at 2:48:34 AM permalink
Most people are self centered idiots, and marriage is very complicated. Most people get married for the wrong reasons. Most people don't understand how much work marriage is. I could go on, but you get the idea. My advice to men is, you can always get married, it takes a few minutes. Avoid it for as long as you can stand it. Its not what you think it is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
zippyboy
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March 15th, 2011 at 3:16:05 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Once you pull the trigger once you are not as afraid of the unknown of divorce.


This.

If you go through anything difficult once, it becomes easier the 2nd, 3rd and 4th times. It's easy to get remarried since you know you have an easy-out if the new spouse even snores too loud. And if you're insisting on a pre-nup, well, then you're already planning on divorce ahead of time.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
RobSinger
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March 15th, 2011 at 6:01:44 AM permalink
I spent my working life around men of means who've been married multiple times. It's always the same--they're professional power drinkers, they're the first ones to complain about how they can never get a handle on their finances because "the ex" is draining them dry, they're the first to leave the bar with a hooker, the first to suggest hitting the massage parlors or gentleman's clubs, and the first ones to blab about spending the night with a pair of 13 yr. olds in Phnom Penh or Vientiane.

The absolute key to a lasting marriage is dignity and respect for one another. Problems will arise, but when there's no uncertainty in either of those areas, problems will fade. Nothing about it is easy, but if you focus when you need to focus, you'll never have to face or deal with the inefficiency and misery of divorce.
FarFromVegas
FarFromVegas
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March 15th, 2011 at 6:45:34 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Once you pull the trigger once you are not as afraid of the unknown of divorce.



This could also be true of children of divorced parents. My husband and I both have 3 sisters. His parents were divorced while mine did the "til death do us part" deal. All of our sisters have gotten married, and two of his have gotten divorced while all three of mine are still married, with durations of between 17 and 21 years so far. And two of my sisters married men who were divorced previously.

Maybe you should find a woman whose parents are still together to increase your odds?
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
AZDuffman
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March 15th, 2011 at 7:04:13 AM permalink
Quote: FarFromVegas

This could also be true of children of divorced parents. My husband and I both have 3 sisters. His parents were divorced while mine did the "til death do us part" deal. All of our sisters have gotten married, and two of his have gotten divorced while all three of mine are still married, with durations of between 17 and 21 years so far. And two of my sisters married men who were divorced previously.

Maybe you should find a woman whose parents are still together to increase your odds?



This is very true I think. Similar to the abused child is more likely to be an abuser because they know no other way.

On the subject of the prenup, if you are over agbe 25 or own any assets get one. As a title examiner I have seen plenty of divorce decrees and other doccuments showing the fallout. My favorite was the guy who owned a house free and clear, put a woman on as his spouse, then three years later quit-claimed off since she got the house as part of the settlement. Now there could have been more to it, but the doccuments at the county recorder don't lie.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Yoyomama
Yoyomama
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March 15th, 2011 at 10:52:15 AM permalink
Lots of my friends have bad marriages. Just staying together because they don't want to split the home and finances.

43% of first marriages end within 15 years.

The median duration of a marriage is 7.2 years.

Red states have a divorce rate 27% higher than blue states.

75% of all divorced people re-marry, half of them within three years.

65% of all second marriages fail.

80% of divorced men and 75% of women remarry whether or not they have children, most within 3 years.

65% of divorces are initiated by women.

I'm pretty sure I will never marry. I may live with someone but it doesn't make sense to marry. In New York there is no "common law" marriage. One of the few states, but that may change.
RobSinger
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March 15th, 2011 at 11:50:44 AM permalink
""I'm pretty sure I will never marry. I may live with someone but it doesn't make sense to marry.""

Why is that? Are you saying you're afraid of failing, you're not capable of or confident in succeeding, do you drink and gamble too much or what?
AZDuffman
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March 15th, 2011 at 12:28:12 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

""I'm pretty sure I will never marry. I may live with someone but it doesn't make sense to marry.""

Why is that? Are you saying you're afraid of failing, you're not capable of or confident in succeeding, do you drink and gamble too much or what?



I think their point is that about half of all marriges end in divorce. Of those that do not, an unknown but positive number are unhappy, some very unhappy. And failure is very expensive.

Divorce as explained to me by someone who went thru it: "If you want to know what divorce is like, take everything you own and put it into a big pile. Then give half that pile to someone you hate. Of the remaining half, give about 20% to your attorney. Then take what is left and find a cheap apartment to live in. That is what divorce is like."
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
pacomartin
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March 15th, 2011 at 12:51:26 PM permalink
According to divorce rate:
The divorce rate in America for first marriage is 41%
The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

Divorce rate per 1000 couples
Italy: 0.7
France: 1.9
Japan: 2.2
Sweden: 2.4
Germany: 2.4
UK: 2.6
USA:4.0

So it seems as if being an Italian mama's boy is the smartest thing.
Doc
Doc
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March 15th, 2011 at 5:54:44 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

...75% of all divorced people re-marry....
...
80% of divorced men and 75% of women remarry ...


Are your numbers just completely made up? Just looking at these two lines shows they can't be correct, unless there are infinitely more women than men getting divorced and remarried. Perhaps you believe the bulk of divorces and remarriages involve same-sex couples?

I suspect that Mr. Martin's figures are more reliable than any of those posted by Yoyomama.
AZDuffman
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March 15th, 2011 at 6:05:58 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Are your numbers just completely made up? Just looking at these two lines shows they can't be correct, unless there are infinitely more women than men getting divorced and remarried. Perhaps you believe the bulk of divorces and remarriages involve same-sex couples?

I suspect that Mr. Martin's figures are more reliable than any of those posted by Yoyomama.



Why can't they be correct? You are assuming someone divorced must marry someone divorced, which is not the case.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Doc
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March 15th, 2011 at 6:48:04 PM permalink
Let's assume for a moment that marriages and divorces involve heterosexual couples. If there are X divorces, that would produce X divorced men and X divorced women. The supposed data indicate that .8X men and .75X women will remarry. Also, there will supposedly be .75(X+X)=1.5X people remarrying. Just how can that be?
AZDuffman
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March 15th, 2011 at 7:09:13 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Let's assume for a moment that marriages and divorces involve heterosexual couples. If there are X divorces, that would produce X divorced men and X divorced women. The supposed data indicate that .8X men and .75X women will remarry. Also, there will supposedly be .75(X+X)=1.5X people remarrying. Just how can that be?



Your flaw is in assuming that divorced population must marry each other. Look another way, the entire USA is 600 people:

200 married women
200 married men
100 single women
100 single men

For simplicity sake we will say the divorce rate is an even 50% over 5 years. So in 5 years you have

100 married women
100 married men
100 divorced women
100 divorced men
100 single women
100 single men

This leaves 200 potential new marrigable couples, or 400 total. The divorced men are more needy and will remarry at a higher rate. The divorced women are living fine on alimony and have less reason to remarry.

80 divorced men remarry. 75 divorced women remarry. As long as at least 6 divorced men find any of the 100 never married women then the divorced women can re-marry at a rate of only 75%. Everyone else can stay happily married, remain single if they are happy being that way, accept that no one will put up with them for an hour let alone a marrige and give up, or whatever.

As men are more likely to troll for younger women and the younger you are the less likely to have ever been married (other things being equal) the remarrige numbers make perfect sense.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Doc
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March 15th, 2011 at 7:22:33 PM permalink
AZ:

I don't disagree with your analysis. However, the original "data" claimed that a total of 75% of the divorced people would remarry. In your 600 person country, there are 200 divorced people, so there should be 75%x200=150 of them getting remarried. You suggest that 80 of them will be men and 75 of them will be women. That seems to total 155. Where do you get those other 5? That's why I said the original figures (80% of men, 75% of women, and 75% of everyone) could not be correct.
AZDuffman
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March 16th, 2011 at 6:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

AZ:

I don't disagree with your analysis. However, the original "data" claimed that a total of 75% of the divorced people would remarry. In your 600 person country, there are 200 divorced people, so there should be 75%x200=150 of them getting remarried. You suggest that 80 of them will be men and 75 of them will be women. That seems to total 155. Where do you get those other 5? That's why I said the original figures (80% of men, 75% of women, and 75% of everyone) could not be correct.



I didn't see that part. Maybe they take deaths into account?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Yoyomama
Yoyomama
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March 16th, 2011 at 8:14:45 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

Are your numbers just completely made up? Just looking at these two lines shows they can't be correct, unless there are infinitely more women than men getting divorced and remarried. Perhaps you believe the bulk of divorces and remarriages involve same-sex couples?

I suspect that Mr. Martin's figures are more reliable than any of those posted by Yoyomama.



I apologize for my post (posts). Many times I am interrupted and it sometimes takes an hour to put up a simple post. I meant to post source. The figures above came from usattorneylegalservices.com. Thanks.
Doc
Doc
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March 16th, 2011 at 8:40:27 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

.... I meant to post source. The figures above came from usattorneylegalservices.com. Thanks.


OK, a quick glance at that web site explains why the data are not something that should be believed. The site even has disclaimers that acknowledge that they do not provide professional advice and are just trying to attract attention to the ad space that the site sells.
Wavy70
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March 16th, 2011 at 11:35:00 AM permalink
Don't forget those who divorce and remarry the same person.
While my (soon to be at the moment) wife and I were at the Clark County court house getting our license we were waiting behind a couple. When our turn at the window comes up the clerk asks "Is this the first marriage for both of you". We chuckle and say yes. The clerk looks up and laughs and tells us that the couple before us it was his 8th and her 7th and 4 of those marriages were to each other.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
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