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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 307
  • Posts: 8433
May 2nd, 2021 at 3:21:51 AM permalink
What we all need is inside information*. You and I don't have it. 

Oh, information is out there. Mostly it is noise, though. Engineers have an expression, "what is the signal to noise ratio?". With investing, there is very little signal in all the noise. If you think you've got a good ratio, you are probably mistaken, as in "I really think TSLA will drop considerably within 3 weeks", this kind of thing, if it was reliable, would turn you into a multimillionaire in no time. 

What can the small investor do? Diversify and buy and hold. At the age I think you are, having met you, do not be conservative!** Do I mean it's OK to gamble? It's not OK if you think you are investing, anymore than it's OK to gamble at -EV wagering in a casino, thinking you are going to come out ahead. Now I too gamble with stocks, a small portion set aside that is just for fun and is as likely to blow up as it is to succeed. But I don't do anything with Margin or Options. I think this is the great disservice of Robinhood, creating new investors but immediately getting them into the wrong mindset for it, and I am partly judging by you, Sir! Sorry about that but since you have a thread, well, I am assuming it is OK


*which acting on is illegal, it needs to be said.
** if I sound like mr. smarty pants, be advised there is a mountain of money I never realized because I was too conservative in my investing. I still am. What I mean if I were in your shoes is stay in stocks, don't go to balanced funds or bond funds to hedge against risk. Diversification can be your hedge and it is sufficient. Later in life you can get into some bonds, but I now know being more savvy about that is important too
Last edited by: odiousgambit on May 2, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 8121
May 2nd, 2021 at 3:51:39 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

What we all need is inside information*. You and I don't have it. 

Oh, information is out there. Mostly it is noise, though. Engineers have an expression, "what is the signal to noise ratio?". With investing, there is very little signal in all the noise. If you think you've got a good ratio, you are probably mistaken, as in "I really think TSLA will drop considerably within 3 weeks", this kind of thing, if it was reliable, would turn you into a multimillionaire in no time. 

What can the small investor do? Diversify and buy and hold. At the age I think you are, having seen you, do not be conservative!** Do I mean it's OK to gamble? It's not OK if you think you are investing, anymore than it's OK to gamble at -EV wagering in a casino, thinking you are going to come out ahead. Now I too gamble with stocks, a small portion set aside that is just for fun and is as likely to blow up as it is to succeed. But I don't do anything with Margin or Options. I think this is the great deservice of Robinhood, creating new investors but immediately getting them into the wrong mindset for it, and I am partly judging by you, Sir!


*which acting on is illegal, it needs to be said.
** if I sound like mr. smarty pants, be advised there is a mountain of money I never realized because I was too conservative in my investing. I still am. What I mean if I were in your shoes is stay in stocks, don't go to balanced funds or bond funds to hedge against risk. Diversification is your hedge and it is sufficient.

I always like to hear your opinions. It is being taken under advisement. I could not make my response public beyond my own eyes. I can mention my margin is small and I realize I double down on options instead of getting rid of them immediately when I first want to do so. The PTD rule definitely binds the small investors, it does not help them make the right moves. It is there to scare them and take away their freedom.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 8121
May 4th, 2021 at 9:37:39 AM permalink
The TSLA puts are pretty much getting me even all time, so pretty happy at this point.
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 313
  • Posts: 6886
May 4th, 2021 at 9:50:51 AM permalink
I no longer try to pick and choose stocks to buy.

Now I just leave it to the experts at TDA, Vanguard, T Rowe Price, Fidelity and Edward Jones.

Never played with options etc.: too risky.

YMMV
"What, me worry?"
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 8121
May 4th, 2021 at 10:18:35 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

I no longer try to pick and choose stocks to buy.

Now I just leave it to the experts at TDA, Vanguard, T Rowe Price, Fidelity and Edward Jones.

Never played with options etc.: too risky.

YMMV


Google: Michael Burry index funds

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