Mdawgs Investments
Quote: SOOPOOIf you are permitted.... what job does not allow individual stock ownership?
I'm going to Hazzard a guess he works in some fiduciary roll. Perhaps for a stock trading company or banking institution?
Something which fear of manipulation from the inside leaves them to place heavy restrictions.
Quote: darkozI'm going to Hazzard a guess he works in some fiduciary roll. Perhaps for a stock trading company or banking institution?
Something which fear of manipulation from the inside leaves them to place heavy restrictions.
I have had inside information regarding medical condition of certain athletes that, at least in theory, could be used to make a wager on a game. Not wanting to ever see the inside of prison, my mouth was sealed shut, and I of course made no bets on those games.
It sounds like UnJon’s firm has the same idea.
But the way, I think those that work for ‘stock trading company’ DO invest in individual stocks! When one of them comes on CNBC they will list the stocks that the person owns in a ‘long position disclaimer’ or such.
Quote: SOOPOOIf you are permitted.... what job does not allow individual stock ownership?
Just FYI, if you work for an accounting firm, as I do, you cannot own stock in any public company that the firm audits.
Unethical, yes, , but are there any specific laws against this that you know of? Did you pay any attention what would have happened had you made the bet you felt would have been good regarding their conditions?Quote: SOOPOOI have had inside information regarding medical condition of certain athletes that, at least in theory, could be used to make a wager on a game. Not wanting to ever see the inside of prison, my mouth was sealed shut, and I of course made no bets on those games.
Quote: WizardI have a simple question. If a private individual shorts a stock and it goes up in value, is there some point where he is forced to cover the short? What is to prevent the short seller from simply never covering the short if the stock goes up in value? Can it happen that the short seller is forced to cover a losing short and he doesn't have the money?
All I know is that in Trading Places the Dukes were told to settle up their short positions at the end of the trading day.
If the stock keeps rising....I believe the brokerage will tell you to put up more capital (cash) into the account. Typically known as a margin call. If you don’t do that in a timely manner, they can close your short position.
Depending on the volatility...it is conceivable any short position can trigger a margin call.
I would assume it is possible that your cash might not cover a short position...but the brokerage will likely never let it get to a point where they could be on the hook for big losses. “Wire us the money today or we close the short” was probably said more than a few times this past week.
Quote: AxelWolfUnethical, yes, , but are there any specific laws against this that you know of? Did you pay any attention what would have happened had you made the bet you felt would have been good regarding their conditions?
The one that I remember most vividly was of an NFL player that I personally took care of. He had a surgery that I thought would prevent him from playing the next Sunday. I got to chat with the guy a lot, he was super friendly and open about a bunch of things. I did not like him before I met him. Questionable persona. I became a big fan after. He at the time did say I could tell anyone that I met him and took care of him. So I did tell my son who is a big Bills fan.
This one instance he DID play the next Sunday, and played very well. Had I bet against ‘my information’ I would have lost.
There have been other examples of players that really just don’t move a line (linebacker, as an example) that were taken care of in my hospital but not by me directly. So (making this up... didn’t happen) if I knew that AJ Klein would be out but it wasn’t public knowledge yet, I think it would be wrong for me to bet against Bills even though it would not make the bet + EV.
By the way virtually all of my sports betting chatter is theoretical. All my sports bets are either on this site or with friends. My total sports betting for a year rarely will exceed $500.
Quote: MDawgThat isn't necessarily "inside" information. A chiropractor I know treats a major world boxing figure and he advised me before a fight that this boxer was fully healed and ready to win the fight. He lost. (I didn't bet anyway, I am not a sports bettor.)
Of course you didn't lose.
When does MDawg lose?
Still, the night is young and I could see a reversal to the green side by the bell, or soon afterwards.
AMZN and GOOG/L both report Tuesday.
Quote: MDawgI could see a reversal to the green side by the bell
Didn't even take that long. We were solidly green by last night.
However, today whatever trades I have tried to enter got stuck in the queue. Never opened! Stupid, sluggish, system today.
I had GME at 265 on its first big dip, coulda made twenty points, and TSLA at 798 for another good trade. This is the second consecutive day the trading platforms are overloaded.
Chat won't even work, and no one will answer the phone at the brokerage, and I am a high level account with a dedicated broker, and still can't get through.
Quote: MDawgThis is not acceptable. All trades I place are simply getting queued and not opening. I am testing the system now with deliberately below market trades - none will open. This, and then on the 27th couldn't even access the account. So, when they sit there in the queue forever, I just cancel them in case I get placed into a position without even knowing it.
Chat won't even work, and no one will answer the phone at the brokerage, and I am a high level account with a dedicated broker, and still can't get through.
Funny how people don't listen when they are told short interest positions are rigging the market.
Guaranteed when the dust clears the short hedge funds will have seen to invest AND be helped by brokerage firms refusing buys. Selling only is a perfect storm for shorts
I missed a lot of good trades though. On the other hand, if I had entered a position and not been able to close it, I would have lost a lot. For example with GME, if I had filled at 265, I could have sold quickly at 285. However if I had been placed in the trade, and then gotten stuck, it also dropped all the way to 213 or so where it was halted, and is now 235.
If my TSLA trade at 798 had filled, and it should have, I'd be sitting pretty now though, regardless.
With trading a few minutes or sometimes even seconds may make a huge difference.
Quote: MDawg
With trading a few minutes or sometimes even seconds may make a huge difference.
I think I relayed my NOK story. Bought at $4.80. Noticed it was $8.60 or so. Answered a phone call or text.... waited a few minutes then logged back in to sell.... was down to $6.66 .... didn't sell. back around $4.80 I think!
Suffice it to say...been there...done that! however, in my case, the stocks I trade, I just average in more, and then ride it out. I don't follow NOK, but - did it eventually go back much higher, or not?
Quote: MDawgDarn! (PG rated swear word) I had a whole story posted here, but then I clicked something and it all disappeared.
Suffice it to say...been there...done that! however, in my case, the stocks I trade, I just average in more, and then ride it out. I don't follow NOK, but - did it eventually go back much higher, or not?
Not sure . I know it went over 5 for a bit. It is now $4.78. So I've had a roller coaster ride and am right back at the starting point. I picked NOK out of all her suggestions because it is a company that at least makes a profit, but just $1 billion last year. So i think for my small investment I'm just going to hold unless it has another stupid Reddit pop.
NOK finished at $4.88.
Some days, I might not trade because too busy. Other days, because my long term stocks are just going straight up with no real dips, and sometimes I don't trade because the high probability trades don't present themselves.
Today I didn't trade because my main brokerage account was malfunctioning. Probably just as well - I read all over the internet about horror stories of some traders who managed to enter trades notwithstanding the glitches, and then were unable to get out, as whatever stock they were trading, dropped.
Quote: MDawgBTC roarage, and TSLA on its way back to 900. Going hand in hand! today.
Dangerous for me.... If TSLA hits 1000 I owe wifey either jewelry/shoes/purse! What month do you think it breaches 1k? March?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawg
That's why you listen to MDawg, and not PokerGrinder. BTC just hit another ATH, to 48.4K
MDawg booked 3500 yesterday trading extra shares of TSLA buying LONG on dips on a day when it fell -44 pts....
And other five hunny today just fooling around on extra shares of AMZN. Took me longer to make this post than make that. The only 2-11 in progress today is MDawg robbing the other traders with his superior trades.
No matter where you throw MDawg he's going to wind up on top.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/be680639-3963-4fa1-a476-65338d0acdc3
You seem not shy about posting details about your casino trips, money made etc... same for stock trading. I’m NOT referring to stock ‘holding’, like if you bought TSLA 5 years ago and still have it... How much do you make in an average year ‘trading’? And no, I don’t need proof! My B in law who basically does it as a job makes between $100k and $200k. And that’s working with a bankroll a fraction of yours.... I’ve just started trading.. so I have no track record to point to....
The goal these days is 1K minimum a day, although some days it's a lot more than that. Today I left it alone at 800 as I had to leave at 11:30am. (The one AMZN trade for 500, and a NFLX one for 300.) More of a hobby, trading extra shares of stocks I already hold long term, than any necessity. LIFO. A hobby in that I don't need to do it. Some days I might not trade at all, if my long terms are flying up and there are no serious dips to speak of. I'm mostly a bottom feeding daily dip buyer of top stocks that tend to hit ATHs. I do get stuck sometimes, but then I just average in more and ride it out - to that extent I am not a strict day trader, I will position trade too if necessary.
Lately I have been very conservative playing with rather small lots. In the past I have been far more aggressive, going for 1000 sh lots, with higher goals than just 1K a day.
I just leave whatever I make in the accounts, don't pull it.
I booked 1700 with ease. I say with ease, in that on each trade I could have held a bit longer, and made more. However, if I had held too much longer, I would have actually been in the red, at least for a while.
After this initial period, meaning the very early part of the day, the market typically goes one direction or another - either lower, or higher. Today, it went higher, at least so far - it is well off its lows right now - but there's really no way to know for sure where it will go after this initial period. Which is why I tend to trade very early in the morning when the stocks often rebound from their dips no matter what else happens later in the day. I also take account of how many days we are into this redness, which AMZN and TSLA have been falling for a few days now. On the first day of a dip, a stock rebounds faster and better than after a few days by which time people may have started to give up. In any case, I made my bones for today and am on to the rest of the day's work.
If you choose to follow this path, you need, of course, the buying power to buy enough of each of the stocks you choose to trade to make the gains worthwhile, and enough to average in more shares to lower your basis if necessary. When it comes to calculating the average on complicated average in buys, such as if I buy say 100 shares, then 50, or 100 shares then 200, etc., I use this calculator:
https://online-calculator.org/stock-average-calculator.aspx
but for simple average buy ins, I can just do that in my head, such as yesterday on that first TSLA trade where I bot in 250 sh of TSLA @ 827, then another 250 @ 813, obviously that's simple math the average is 820 I can do that in my head. So then I just let it go at 821, and made 500 on that trade.
You also need to pick, in my opinion anyway, very solid stocks that tend to hit new ATHs so that even if you get REALLY stuck, you may just hold until they come back. In this respect I am not a day trader, as I will position (swing) trade too especially if I get stuck.
I must warn you Soopoo though, there is a learning curve on stock trading, and in the beginning you will most likely lose money. I've been doing this since I was a kid, since the dot.com boom of the late '90s. There is also a limit to how good you may ever get at it, depending on your innate "talent." Compare it to say, to the LSAT - no matter how much you practice your upper score on the Law School Admissions Test will be limited by your brain ability.
I mention the LSAT only as an example of where no matter how hard you try or practice you'll never score any higher than you are capable. That is not to say that intelligence has much to do with stock trading success, just saying that some people will never be good at trading no matter how much they practice or try.
Actually, interestingly, stock trading success is not contingent on intelligence. Many highly intelligent traders overthink or just have bad intuition or a bad sense for the market, and lose money, while some real dumbos who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag make money hand over fist. But you'll figure out if you have a talent for this soon enough.
And, trying to follow anyone, including your brother in law, me, anyone - just doesn't really work. Traders often enter and exit trades so fast that we don't really have time to guide anyone. I used to try to do that with a friend of mine who was also a trader, but it never really worked out other than our communicating about what we were doing after the fact.
All those guys who profess to "teach" trading are either incapable of success on their own, or are making money off their disciples both by fleecing them for tuition and by entering trades ahead of their students.
If you are thinking about doing this, start tracking some stocks
and start thinking about ranges, and entry points. Think about this too though - take a look at the prices on almost every one of those stocks I tracked on May 14, 2020. Pretty much every one of them is much higher today. So - go ahead and trade extra shares, but don't ever sell your long term holds of the good stocks.
Quote: MDawgBRK.B - no I have never traded it. It doesn't seem volatile enough for good trading. For example from Feb. 10 - 12th, moved entirely sideways it appears. I don't trade AAPL for the same reason, often doesn't move much. Lately AAPL has been more volatile, but nothing like AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, CMG, etc.
So is this a fair summary...?
1. Pick a company that is sound, one you won’t mind holding if you have to.
2. Pick a company that is above average in volatility.
It makes intuitive sense.... but won’t ‘sound’ companies lean towards a lower volatility? I think, as an example, the crazy volatility of TSLA is because it is not a sound company(yet)? Meaning they have not proven they can consistently be even profitable? Amazon, for its size, is not that profitable either. While Apple has moved to massive profitability consistently, hence NOT as volatile?
For example after the market was done dropping between Spring 2000 - 9/11/2001, there followed a couple years there when the market wasn't really conducive to trading - mostly flat, as I recall.
And yes, the best stocks to trade are stocks that keep hitting new ATHs (all time highs). That way, if you do get stuck you may ride it out until it comes back. Once a stock hits a new ATH - ANYone who has EVER gone long on the stock has no excuse for losing.
Let’s say it is $2 million you are willing to trade. I was able to go back 10 years. Just keeping it in SPY instead of ever trading it I think got you around $1k a day. (I figured 250 trading days in a year). My point is if you have a lot of money, it’s easy to make a lot of money!
Good work today, MDawg. I was down a little today holding...
I keep saying it... Averaging down is martingale for investors.Quote: SOOPOOGood trades. But you needed nearly $600k of liquidity to make those buys. And as you said, if they went down you would be ready to buy more, so for simplicity say you needed $1million liquid. And if these went down, unless you had another $1 million liquid, you couldn’t pick a 3rd or 4th stock to trade.
Let’s say it is $2 million you are willing to trade. I was able to go back 10 years. Just keeping it in SPY instead of ever trading it I think got you around $1k a day. (I figured 250 trading days in a year). My point is if you have a lot of money, it’s easy to make a lot of money!
Good work today, MDawg. I was down a little today holding...
It works till it doesn't.
My long terms went down a lot more today than the apprx. 1300 I made trading.
However, the point is to keep chugging away, and making money on trades, and then eventually the long terms come back or go up, and then you have all that you made trading on top of whatever your long terms rise.
Some people can't relate to putting a million or more into a stock "just" to book a thousand, but then first of all, sometimes such trades book a lot more than a thousand, such as the other day when I booked 3000 on that single TSLA trade. Sometimes I'll hit a home run and book 10K in one day trade, or more. In any case, as your brother in law should attest, it all does add up to a fair amount by year's end.
Yes, to be "safe" you need a lot of buying power to do what I do with the top stocks that I trade.
But, again, don't ever sell your long terms. If you find you have a knack for it, trade additional shares on top of what you hold.
Another rule I follow is to stay out of margin. That way if I get stuck in a trade and need to hold it for a while, it's not like I am paying for the time cost of the trade. In other words, I maintain a good % of cash in my accounts in case I need it for averaging in a lot of shares on a trade.
Quote: MDawgThanks.
My long terms went down a lot more today than the apprx. 1300 I made trading.
However, the point is to keep chugging away, and making money on trades, and then eventually the long terms come back or go up, and then you have all that you made trading on top of whatever your long terms rise.
Some people can't relate to putting a million or more into a stock "just" to book a thousand, but then first of all, sometimes such trades book a lot more than a thousand, such as the other day when I booked 3000 on that single TSLA trade. Sometimes I'll hit a home run and book 10K in one day trade, or more. In any case, as your brother in law should attest, it all does add up to a fair amount by year's end.
Yes, to be "safe" you need a lot of buying power to do what I do with the top stocks that I trade.
But, again, don't ever sell your long terms. If you find you have a knack for it, trade additional shares on top of what you hold.
Another rule I follow is to stay out of margin. That way if I get stuck in a trade and need to hold it for a while, it's not like I am paying for the time cost of the trade. In other words, I maintain a good % of cash in my accounts in case I need it for averaging in a lot of shares on a trade.
Investing a million to make $1000 sounds like betting $1 on 35 numbers at roulette to make a $1.
Nice winning system you have there
First off, averaging in when buying a stock is what you're Supposed to do. If you're planning to buy 100 shares of a given stock, whether for investing or trading, you should never buy all 100 shares at once. You should buy 50 or even just 25, and then see what happens. If it goes straight up, sure, you might get shut out from that lower basis, but if it drops then you are able to average in more shares and lower your basis. Typically there is no way to get the absolute bottom or top, so averaging in is the safe way to do it.
But besides that, on a martingale for say, a coin toss, the probability of the event's coming in your favor remains the same for each coin toss. Lose eight coin tosses in a row, and the chance that you will win the ninth remains just 50-50.
On a stock, as the price drops, and you average in shares, the stock needs to return to a lower price point than your initial target, so no matter what stock it is, even disregarding its chart and history, the intrinsic probability of the event's coming to pass increases. The stock has less distance to travel to put you back in the green. If some of the mathematicians on here want to calculate, for example, the chance that AMZN will hit 3350 again versus that it will hit 3300, based on its history, I am sure that they will agree that the chance of its bouncing back 32 points from its close today is higher than its rising 82 points. And even disregarding any history and considering pure math, still the chance that something will return to a lower point is higher than that it will return to a higher.
So if I get stuck in an AMZN trade at 3350 and I hold my horses until it hits 3250 and buy another lot of shares, the chances that my now double the amount of shares will return to green at the new basis of 3300 is higher than that it will return at 3350, no matter how you slice it.
As a practical matter, I have NEVER had a trade not return to higher than where I initially bot into it - such that all the averaging in did is get me back into the green FASTER. That's a pretty solid track record that defies any sort of luck, and has as much to do with the stocks I pick constantly hitting new ATHs as my skill in choosing entry and re-entry (averaging in) points.
But even if I knew nothing at all, if I needed a given stock to get me into the green at a lower price versus a higher price, obviously the lower that price is the better my chances are at success.
Quote: darkozInvesting a million to make $1000 sounds like betting $1 on 35 numbers at roulette to make a $1.
Nice winning system you have there
Sorry dark.... investing $1million in a real company is not like ‘betting $1million’. If MD is wrong and the stock goes from 3300 to 3200 he hadn’t lost a million, he’s ‘lost’ like $30k. And as you’ve read, if you are willing to hold, as MDawg does, he only loses if the stock NEVER hits a new all time high. NEVER. He does give up the use of the $1million until it does.
If he picked a stock like ENRON, that went fully bankrupt (like I did!) , then yes, he COULD lose the full million. I am no expert on AMAZON, but I can envision many swings in its stock price... but not it’s bankruptcy in the decades to come.
CytoDyn And Humanigen: Ticking Time Bombs, Impending Results Likely To Fail
But even with a stock like CYDY, the chance that it will go to 6 or 7 again is higher than that it will go back to 10. So a buyer who has averaged in shares at a for example 7 basis has a higher chance of success than one who has made a single purchase at 10.
Quote: SOOPOOSorry dark.... investing $1million in a real company is not like ‘betting $1million’. If MD is wrong and the stock goes from 3300 to 3200 he hadn’t lost a million, he’s ‘lost’ like $30k. And as you’ve read, if you are willing to hold, as MDawg does, he only loses if the stock NEVER hits a new all time high. NEVER. He does give up the use of the $1million until it does.
If he picked a stock like ENRON, that went fully bankrupt (like I did!) , then yes, he COULD lose the full million. I am no expert on AMAZON, but I can envision many swings in its stock price... but not it’s bankruptcy in the decades to come.
Right. The main thing I lose, actually, as you allude, if I get stuck in a trade is the opportunity loss of those trade buying dollars that I won't be able to use for another trade. And if I get stuck in a 100, or 200 shares of say, AMZN, no big deal, I will keep trading and put that particular trade on an independent back burner until it comes back. 900 shares, okay, I might at that point TURN OFF the trading machine until I am out of that trade. And at that point, yes, I lose a lot of expectation profit because I stop trading.
I expect to get stuck a few times a year, and I just average in and ride it out. As I recall, the last time I was stuck was towards the end of 2019, and I got out of the trade at a profit during the Vegas trip while we were in Vegas Feb/March 2020. That was quite a happy day, as I won at the tables and saw that my GTC order to sell that had been set some weeks prior had filled finally. During the pandemic, AMZN actually kept going up as soon as people reasoned that online sales would jump during lockdown, so I didn't have to worry about getting stuck in AMZN trades much, or at least not for long, during that period. I haven't been stuck in a while, but I know it will happen again. I will just average in if necessary, and ride it out.
For me to get stuck, the stock REALLY has to drop on a given day AND not recover whatsoever. If you follow my trades you may see what a bottom feeder I am and that I don't jump in lightly.
One thing - when I do get stuck, I switch from day trade to swing trade mentality, and RAISE my sell price. I'm not going to hold a loser for days, weeks or months, just to make a few points. What many don't understand is that if a stock makes it all the way back to a certain price, it always breaks through and goes higher.
Quote: MDawgOn the other hand, CYDY's entire future is based on one event's happening or not happening. Poor test results and BAM! back to ten cents a share. Biotechs are always a gamble, but penny biotechs are an even greater gamble.
CytoDyn And Humanigen: Ticking Time Bombs, Impending Results Likely To Fail
But even with a stock like CYDY, the chance that it will go to 6 or 7 again is higher than that it will go back to 10. So a buyer who has averaged in shares at a for example 7 basis has a higher chance of success than one who has made a single purchase at 10.
I agree with most of this assessment except that it is a one shot deal.
You are thinking the drug is designed for Covid-19. It's already gone through years of HIV successful trials and has many other indications.
Even if it's not proven good against covid (and yes it will drop) it will bounce back on the HIV approval which is also very close.
900 HIV patients on the drug for over five years successfully will get this approved.
It's also being examined for Cancer and Liver disease indications
I don't see that as a one shot only scenario.
But to use another analogy, biotechs like CYDY have two or three pots to p in. While a stock like AMZN has dozens of pots of different shapes and sizes.
Quote: MDawgYes, DarkOz is right. CYDY does have more than just one thing in the hopper.
But to use another analogy, biotechs like CYDY have two or three pots to p in. While a stock like AMZN has dozens of pots of different shapes and sizes.
The stock market. The biggest Casino in the world.
Isn't that a famous quote?
Quote: MDawgSoopoo, if you don't mind my asking, how is your brother in law dealing with the tax return end of year for his day trading? The wash sale rule shouldn't apply to us traders but there are complicated ways to deal with this. Such as for example declaring oneself a trader and using the mark to market method of accounting. I ran into this issue with the wash sale rule the first year my stock trades started to run into serious short term gains.
In case you don't know, typically if you buy a given stock and sell it at a loss, and rebuy within 30 days, the wash sale rule precludes you from taking the loss on the first trade. But you are allowed to add the loss to increase the basis of the next trade in the same stock.
But then - consider what I do all the time, for example buy 100 shares of a stock at X price, then another 100 shares of the stock at Y price (lower than X), and then sell all 200 shares at a price that is above the average basis of the two trades combined. For purposes of even LIFO accounting, I sold the first 100 shares at a loss, the second 100 shares at a profit, such that I made money on the "combined" trade, but the wash sale rule would typically disallow the loss from the first 100 share lot, especially since I am trading additional shares of a stock I hold long term, and never actually hold 0 shares of the given stock - never actually close out the position "entirely."
Please ask your brother in law I am curious as to how he deals with this, or plans to deal with this. There are different ways to avoid the wash sale rule for day traders, just wondering how he does it maybe his method is better than mine.
Typically day traders are shocked by the 1099-B they receive at the end of the year when it indicates some massive "disallowed" wash sale figure. I know when this first happened to me I had some long talks with my CPA.
Quote: SOOPOOI didn’t ask him the exact question that you pose. But I did have a long chat with him about taxes last week. He trades in two separate accounts. One retirement so no tax consequences. The other one ha says virtually all the money he makes is taxable as ordinary income. He says he rarely keeps something long enough to make it a capital gain. You are willing to get ‘stuck’ with what you consider a ‘good’ company, he isn’t. He will take a loss periodically. He will buy ‘bad’ companies, that for whatever reason he thinks in short term will go up. I do know he is ‘registered’ as a professional trader, whatever exactly that means. He pays quarterly estimated taxes, as he is a part time real estate agent and makes some money, but not consistent, doing that too.
Edit.... I do not think I actually answered your question. But I think since he does not trade shares that he is holding long-term the question really doesn’t apply to him.
Quote: MDawgIt sounds like he elected the trader status with the IRS so as to exempt himself from the wash sale rule.
Quote: MDawgMartingale in a casino. Averaging in with a stock trade. These are NOT the same.
First off, averaging in when buying a stock is what you're Supposed to do. If you're planning to buy 100 shares of a given stock, whether for investing or trading, you should never buy all 100 shares at once. You should buy 50 or even just 25, and then see what happens. If it goes straight up, sure, you might get shut out from that lower basis, but if it drops then you are able to average in more shares and lower your basis. Typically there is no way to get the absolute bottom or top, so averaging in is the safe way to do it.
But besides that, on a martingale for say, a coin toss, the probability of the event's coming in your favor remains the same for each coin toss. Lose eight coin tosses in a row, and the chance that you will win the ninth remains just 50-50.
On a stock, as the price drops, and you average in shares, the stock needs to return to a lower price point than your initial target, so no matter what stock it is, even disregarding its chart and history, the intrinsic probability of the event's coming to pass increases. The stock has less distance to travel to put you back in the green. If some of the mathematicians on here want to calculate, for example, the chance that AMZN will hit 3350 again versus that it will hit 3300, based on its history, I am sure that they will agree that the chance of its bouncing back 32 points from its close today is higher than its rising 82 points. And even disregarding any history and considering pure math, still the chance that something will return to a lower point is higher than that it will return to a higher.
So if I get stuck in an AMZN trade at 3350 and I hold my horses until it hits 3250 and buy another lot of shares, the chances that my now double the amount of shares will return to green at the new basis of 3300 is higher than that it will return at 3350, no matter how you slice it.
As a practical matter, I have NEVER had a trade not return to higher than where I initially bot into it - such that all the averaging in did is get me back into the green FASTER. That's a pretty solid track record that defies any sort of luck, and has as much to do with the stocks I pick constantly hitting new ATHs as my skill in choosing entry and re-entry (averaging in) points.
But even if I knew nothing at all, if I needed a given stock to get me into the green at a lower price versus a higher price, obviously the lower that price is the better my chances are at success.
What I did today (which is what I do many days), illustrates the above as well as brings up the wash sale rule that I mentioned to Soopoo.
Friday I bot 100 AMZN at 3285, for a trade. AMZN collapsed. It didn't go back anywhere near 3285 again.
This morning, I did some calculations and realized that I needed to average in more shares to get out of this trade at a profit. I noticed that AMZN was slightly above 3208 in the pre-, but that wasn't good enough and I assumed it would fall further anyway. So I put in an order at 3201 first, then cancelled that out and thought okay maybe 3198. AMZN didn't go quite that low right away - only to 3200 and change, so I LOWERED the buy to 3195, for 200 shares, figuring that if it did drop to 3200 again it would drop a bit further even (you'll have to take the $15,000 MDawg stock trading course to understand why I figured that) which would bring my average to 3225 for the 300 shares including the 100 from Friday. If it filled.
Luckily, it did dip that low.
Now, there were a lot of fits and starts including that my 300 share order for 3226 flashed across the screen, wasn't filled, and AMZN dropped all the way back to 3116. But I hung tough, and on the third rise back up I got a fill, and AMZN actually went all the way to 3232 looks like. But, my objective was to get out of Friday's trade at a profit by averaging in, and I did that. Mission accomplished.
And again, as far as this was simply Martingaling - try to tell me that the probability that AMZN would hit 3226 today to make Friday's trade profitable was not higher than that the original 100 shares would make it back above 3285 today? Which, again, is why averaging in stock purchases is not the same as Martingaling a bet on a coin toss where the probability of success never changes from toss to toss.
And now - the wash sale rule. You see, I sold 100 shares from Friday that I bot at 3285, at a LOSS today, at 3226. However I sold 200 shares I bot today at 3195 at 3226, at a profit. Combine the two - I squeaked out a profit. And even though AMZN DID make it to 3226 and higher for me, it is now 3192 so it just goes to show how trading and long term are two very different animals.
Anyway - as to this particular trade - pursuant to the wash sale rule, because I will still hold long term shares of AMZN (besides the fact that I will buy back more AMZN for more trades if not later today, inevitably soon), the LOSS from the 3285 to 3226 trade is disallowed, which would leave me with a huge profit to reckon taxes for on the 3195 to 3226 trade, and nothing to "offset" against it. I would be in that "absurd" position of being disallowed from declaring the "loss" on the first portion (called "lot") of the trade, if I had to follow the wash sale rule - which traders as long as they elect that status with the IRS, are exempted from the wash sale rule by some "legal tax fiction" which is that at the end of the year their positions are "declared" to have been all closed out. We traders are also allowed to deduct any computer equipment, software, internet costs, professional subscriptions that are stock related, research costs, etc. - against our trading profit.
I assume this is what your brother in law does Soopoo - elect trader status with the IRS - but I wondered if maybe he had found another way to do it. Always room for thought when it comes to dealing with the IRS.
BTC is dumping today though. Elon's "seem high" statement finally got to people I suppose.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/bitcoin-btc-price-down-10percent-after-elon-musk-says-prices-seem-high.html
There is sometimes no rime or reason to that guy's tweets. Definitely a bipolar disorder going on there.
Asked if he might be bipolar, he replied, “Yeah.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/business/elon-musk-tesla-board.html
Elon Musk admits to ‘unrelenting stress,’ says he may be bipolar.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-admits-to-unrelenting-stress-says-he-may-be-bipolar-2017-07-31
The beginning of the end, or just another dip?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407813-cytodyn-reliable-in-all-wrong-places
