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MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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March 28th, 2020 at 11:21:45 AM permalink
I like to think about what happened election night 2016. When the initial results were coming in and the election was going the way everyone expected, DOW futures were way up green. Then when those states started turning red, futures abruptly shifted to red as could be, there was market mayhem in the winds. I recall a friend of mine emailing me, "Don't worry, by morning futures will be at most a couple hundred red." And sure enough they were, and of course we know the rest, as we commenced a close to four year run that ended only last month.

Another friend of mine, against all advice, starting buying S&P puts before the 2016 election, and constantly afterwards, dumped about a hundred grand on puts before he gave up. I kept telling him it made no sense - because before the election everyone thought she was going to win, and futures were going to go up, and the expected outcome (surprise!) if he won, which no one thought he would, was market tankage, so I wondered where the logic was in his puts since everyone expected her to win and the market to go up? In any case, he bet on market tankage and lost, big.

Also if you look at even the 1987 crash day, as the market started tanking all these people went short or bought puts. Then the market reversed furiously and the shorties bailed out at a loss. Of course by the end of the day, true tankage had ensued and settled in. Point being that almost no one made money that day, long, or short.

One historical exception I can think of was Jesse Livermore. He WAS short before the crash of '29. When he went home that night his wife had hidden all their furniture as she had received news of the crash and figured that creditors were on their way to seize all of their belongings. He had to explain to her that he had made more money that day, than he had ever made. But, over time he gave it all back and died fairly broke from suicide at a relatively young age.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 28th, 2020 at 11:47:37 AM permalink
I'm only going to be holding GILD and maybe MRNA, think they're immune to a panic sell-off, will probably go up if there is one.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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March 28th, 2020 at 12:02:09 PM permalink
Looks like GILD already tanked back to its low on Friday, any idea why?

I've held my long terms for so long it would not make sense to sell now. If I didn't sell in 2008, I certainly would not sell now either. I've accumulated more over the years, not sold.

Same with BTC no, I didn't sell at 20K, but then I didn't sell at 1000 either. Been accumulating and hodling since about 2010. My target on those is 50K minimum, no matter how many years it takes.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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MDawg
March 28th, 2020 at 12:20:03 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Looks like GILD already tanked back to its low on Friday, any idea why?

I've held my long terms for so long it would not make sense to sell now. If I didn't sell in 2008, I certainly would not sell now either. I've accumulated more over the years, not sold.

It has been choppy, this keeps happening for now. A lot of shorts on it I guess. I kind of slept through this unfortunately, maybe Bernie Sanders was going on about how they shouldn't charge anyone for this drug, he messed with the company once already. I couldn't believe how short-sided and foolish he is, to steal one or two drugs and not consider they're not going to make the next one. That's pretty much the line, they won't be able to charge too much, even before this Bernie Sanders interfering. The'll get royalties one way or another, all the effort on this one, probably ignoring their other things for the most part, I think they deserve something. Most Drs are talking about how good the drug is they think, Chinese phase 1 studies coming out in April. It's generally considered a good stock anyway I'd say in the low $70s. I'm expecting it to be in the $90s at least, we'll see. I think one of these days soon it goes up and doesn't come back down. IF the April results are terrible, like it kills people or really does nothing, yeah it will go down alright of course. Some of the analysts have said there were anecdotal stories like this, but I felt the people really didn't put the work in imo. It was used in EBOLA studies, don't think I remember seeing anything so bad, just the other company's drug was more effective so they stopped using remdesivir.

Seems there was quite a negative article Friday morning, maybe people were scared even though it came out 10am.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334581-gileads-remdesivir-trials-are-complete-gamble

I personally feel anything close to being fine, will be approved, there will be nothing else close to ready. People aren't expecting something great, but I think they're not expecting something bad, this could cause a great loss of hope, like nothing will get better kind of hopelessness. Hopefully I won't be too sick to sell off, I'll have to put a sell order in just in case, not sure what dollar yet, $68.00 my guess right now.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 28, 2020
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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March 29th, 2020 at 3:55:14 PM permalink
Last I checked futures are red. Could be green by morning, and the week could be great like last week.

But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 29th, 2020 at 4:06:13 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Last I checked futures are red. Could be green by morning, and the week could be great like last week.

But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.


Feels like it'll be red. Like I have mentioned BTC has dropped a lot recently. We've seen it crash at the same time markets have crashed, it has fallen quite a lot since Friday evening, I don't know how to take it. Are people getting into cash, or are they getting out of crypto planning to re-invest in the stock market or is it just not related? I'll stay put in my position where I'm insulated and have already missed out on the easy gains by being too early to the party or because there never will be a party. Knowing my gut, probably the last. I feel pretty decent where I'm in, I'll hold LT if I'm wrong and be long.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 29th, 2020 at 4:39:53 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Last I checked futures are red. Could be green by morning, and the week could be great like last week.

But, the fact that I am even checking futures first thing on Sunday afternoon is in itself not a good sign for us bulls.



I am sure it will be ketchup red
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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March 29th, 2020 at 5:34:54 PM permalink
Anything could still happen by morning, but we are 50% better than we were a few hours ago.

I've traded futures long before but only on nights where things crash suddenly in an overreaction. Buy long, on the big dip, it always seems to move back,

These days, these nights, movement is too savage and unpredictable. But there are tens of thousands trading them at this moment!
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
Suited89
Suited89
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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MDawg
March 31st, 2020 at 4:01:19 PM permalink
I purchased 4200 IRM at $23.80 at close. Will sell-off the original 3200 at $31.42 later. Yes, I like $100,000 decisions. Just less than 10 at this point ;o)

At the end of the Qtr. looking profitable, except IRM, and WY is a little negative. Almost ready to sit tight, just sell-off old IRM.

Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 31st, 2020 at 5:43:03 PM permalink
Quote: Suited89

I purchased 4200 IRM at $23.80 at close. Will sell-off the original 3200 at $31.42 later. Yes, I like $100,000 decisions. Just less than 10 at this point ;o)

At the end of the Qtr. looking profitable, except IRM, and WY is a little negative. Almost ready to sit tight, just sell-off old IRM.

Suited89

I feel like this post should be 4 times longer, I'm not understanding it. Are they watching and listening right now? ;) Kind of just seems like you're in code.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.

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