odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 21st, 2022 at 5:55:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The stock market declined roughly 1% per day over the last five days, which is noteworthy in this bubble market that seems to never go down. Could not hold a gain for a day

I believe this may be the first whiff of a long overdue correction. Stock market capitalization currently stands at about 200% of GDP, the highest ever. In 2000 it peaked at 140% right before the tech bubble burst

The market will revert back to a normal valuation (80 - 100% of GDP). Always does…question is when not if. I have trailing stop loss orders on everything

Real estate bubble to burst right after stocks.

It’s unfortunate that the USA is now a boom and bust economy. Crashes about every ten years like a developing nation. As usual, the Fed is mostly to blame…they left interest rates way too low for way too long…again
link to original post

It will be interesting to see what the Fed does. In the pandemic drop it could focus on re-boosting the economy, but this time should there be a swoon it has the dual task of that and controlling inflation too.

The gambler comes out in me during these corrections. I did very well with the 2008 one, picking the bottom pretty well, though as usual I wish I had invested more. In the 2020 crash I thought the bottom was not reached yet and didn't get my bets down like I wanted, so to speak. I did get some down but you could say the Fed screwed me by acting so strongly purchasing assets. Can this really happen again?

My only risk factor with my timeline is if stocks go down and stay down for years. In the last two crashes this did not happen, I hope it didn't spoil us.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 21st, 2022 at 8:23:10 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

[
My only risk factor with my timeline is if stocks go down and stay down for years. In the last two crashes this did not happen, I hope it didn't spoil us.
link to original post

I wouldn’t count on a quick “recovery” this time since the market is at least 100% overvalued. Probably take a decade or more for prices to get back up to where they are now

Look at the Nasdaq. It took 15 years for it to return to it’s 2000 bubble level. Or look at the last real estate bubble markets …only recently did prices get back up to 2006 levels
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 22nd, 2022 at 3:48:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I wouldn’t count on a quick “recovery” this time since the market is at least 100% overvalued. Probably take a decade or more for prices to get back up to where they are now

Look at the Nasdaq. It took 15 years for it to return to it’s 2000 bubble level. Or look at the last real estate bubble markets …only recently did prices get back up to 2006 levels
link to original post



A decade or more! ouch!

Of course to say 'you might wait 15 years' will strongly apply to anything you bought recently and less strongly to what you might have bought in March 2020. And real estate is notorious for long recovery times after a crash.

As for NYSE stocks and ETFs during a crash, I generally wait till things are 20% down from about now to get 'interested'. Not 20% down from the all time high, and buying cautiously at first, in other words. And then I plot a dollar cost averaging scheme ... if the market keeps going down, I'm still buying, getting more bold as it heads to 50% down.

Let's say we have a true crash. Do you just hunker down or what do you do?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 22nd, 2022 at 8:58:53 AM permalink
Around the first quarter of last year when oil dropped to less than zero, I invested half my IRA into XOM (Exon-Mobil) at $44. It quickly rose to about $54, and I sold (no capital gains IRA). It dropped back to $47, and I re-purchased. Oil is now at $85+/barrel and XOM is at $72. Their profits are soaring; the dividend is $.88/quarter; the projection for the stock is to get to $90 in the next 12 months. I plan on selling at $80+. I wrote about XOM in another thread about 9 months or so ago. Guess no one was looking.

tuttigym
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 22nd, 2022 at 9:22:05 AM permalink
Investing half your retirement money in an individual stock works great until it doesn't.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 23rd, 2022 at 7:26:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Investing half your retirement money in an individual stock works great until it doesn't.
link to original post


Well, somebody on this forum told me to make "max" bets to increase my "bankroll." They implied I did not know anything about gambling, so..........

For the last 10 years I have been taking the mandatory (by law) minimum annual distribution from my IRA. The growth rate within the account was about 3% so that my net loss each year was about 2%. That investment has increased my IRA total account to about 140% of its original amount from the starting point 10 years ago plus the dividends from the stock now equal the required annual minimum distribution, so there is NO net loss from the account.

And, yes, I will probably live until I die.

tuttigym
Kotton
Kotton
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 3
Joined: Jan 23, 2022
January 23rd, 2022 at 8:02:41 AM permalink
Indeed, trying to determine the time in the markets is not recommended.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 23rd, 2022 at 8:14:27 AM permalink
Quote: Kotton

Indeed, trying to determine the time in the markets is not recommended.
link to original post


To paraphrase Billryan, timing the market is not recommended until it is.

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
Thanked by
tuttigym
January 23rd, 2022 at 8:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Kotton

Indeed, trying to determine the time in the markets is not recommended.
link to original post


To paraphrase Billryan, timing the market is not recommended until it is.

tuttigym
link to original post

Good one
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 23rd, 2022 at 9:44:42 AM permalink
Seems artificial. Run it up, run it down. Rinse, repeat. I’m not a big believer in a diversified portfolio so the last 10 days or so, the losses get magnified. Still, I’d rather pick 2-3 stocks that I truly believe in…product, leadership, innovation and profit. Roll the dice.

10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.

Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 23rd, 2022 at 10:31:24 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Seems artificial. Run it up, run it down. Rinse, repeat. I’m not a big believer in a diversified portfolio so the last 10 days or so, the losses get magnified. Still, I’d rather pick 2-3 stocks that I truly believe in…product, leadership, innovation and profit. Roll the dice.

10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.

Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
link to original post



In this market, if your stocks were half up and half down for the year, you need to get better advice. We've been in a massive bull run and it's much more like 95% up at the end of the year. If you can't make money with a diverse portfolio , you should consider paying someone who will make it for you.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 237
  • Posts: 6793
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 23rd, 2022 at 10:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: TDVegas

Seems artificial. Run it up, run it down. Rinse, repeat. I’m not a big believer in a diversified portfolio so the last 10 days or so, the losses get magnified. Still, I’d rather pick 2-3 stocks that I truly believe in…product, leadership, innovation and profit. Roll the dice.

10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.

Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
link to original post



In this market, if your stocks were half up and half down for the year, you need to get better advice. We've been in a massive bull run and it's much more like 95% up at the end of the year. If you can't make money with a diverse portfolio , you should consider paying someone who will make it for you.
link to original post




an awful lot of talk about where the market is headed out there from the talking heads

I believe they know just as much as me - no more - no less

I know nothing and they know nothing - their predictions are worthless - and so would mine be if I made any

that's the nature of the thing - it's really not at all logical - that's obvious from 2021 - but in lots of other ways too

I stay the course no matter what - nothing can scare me out - I believe in a clear long term upward bias - nothing else

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 23rd, 2022 at 10:53:30 AM permalink
To each his own, but if I thought I knew half as much as my advisor, I'd have to think his seven years of schooling and the decade he learned from the bottom up on Wall St. was useless. I might as well think I know as much as my doctors. Ask Warren Zevon how that worked out.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 237
  • Posts: 6793
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 23rd, 2022 at 10:58:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

To each his own, but if I thought I knew half as much as my advisor, I'd have to think his seven years of schooling and the decade he learned from the bottom up on Wall St. was useless. I might as well think I know as much as my doctors. Ask Warren Zevon how that worked out.
link to original post




every single year something like 70% or more of Wall Street Portfolio Managers probably making in the neighborhood of $25 mill per year underperform the S&P 500 index

what does that tell you?

it tells me that I don't give a flying eff what they say - which is how I've invest now and have invested for about 45 years - and have done very well - nobody's going to write a book about my gains - but that's okay - I've beaten about 70% or more of the million dollar Portfolio Managers


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3667
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
Thanked by
odiousgambit
January 23rd, 2022 at 11:08:23 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

To each his own, but if I thought I knew half as much as my advisor, I'd have to think his seven years of schooling and the decade he learned from the bottom up on Wall St. was useless. I might as well think I know as much as my doctors. Ask Warren Zevon how that worked out.
link to original post




every single year something like 70% or more of Wall Street Portfolio Managers probably making in the neighborhood of $25 mill per year underperform the S&P 500 index

what does that tell you?

it tells me that I don't give an eff what they say - which is how I've invest now and have invested for about 45 years - and have done very well - nobody's going to write a book about my gains - but that's okay - I've beaten about 70% or more of the million dollar Portfolio Managers


.
link to original post



It tells you most of them aren’t fiduciaries and have conflicts of interest, for one.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 237
  • Posts: 6793
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 23rd, 2022 at 11:17:35 AM permalink
_________


even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now

from the article:

"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"


.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html



.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 23rd, 2022 at 11:43:27 AM permalink
Many of the participants of this forum have intellects that are well above average, I believe. Sometimes logic is disregarded and replaced with overthinking. There are guideposts, if carefully observed, that can help create direction. For me, for example, was in the midst of Covid were oil prices sliding so low along with the economy that a rebound due to the vaccine and an American recovery was inevitable. Mobility and transportation and fossil fuel would be jumping and XOM had never been lower in price. I pounced twice and now it is projected, because of its profit picture and dividend history, to reach $90/share. I personally will not wait for that plateau but have a comfortable $$ figure goal to sell.

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 23rd, 2022 at 12:14:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_________


even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now

from the article:

"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"


.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html



.
link to original post

Here are closing values of S&P 500 for 2006. 2011, 2016 and 2021 respectively: 1418, 1257, 2283 and 4766. The corresponding values for Brk.a are 110000, 117000, 248000, and 445000

So the 5, 10 and 15 year cumulative returns for the S&P are 109%, 279% and 236%

The corresponding returns for Brk are 79%, 280% and 305%

Only lagged a bit in the 5-year return and I think that’s normal in a bubble market since Warren doesn’t invest in the speculative stocks that are major drivers of the bubble. But he beat the S&P substantially over the long 15 year period, which is all that really matters. One thing the stock market and gambling have in common is that the short term doesn’t mean much
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jan 23, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 23rd, 2022 at 12:48:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: lilredrooster

_________


even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now

from the article:

"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"


.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html



.
link to original post

Here are closing values of S&P 500 for 2006. 2011, 2016 and 2021 respectively: 1418, 1257, 2283 and 4766. The corresponding values for Brk.a are 110000, 117000, 248000, and 445000

So the 5, 10 and 15 year cumulative returns for the S&P are 109%, 279% and 236%

The corresponding returns for Brk are 79%, 280% and 305%

Only lagged a bit in the 5-year return and I think that’s normal in a bubble market since Warren doesn’t invest in the speculative stocks that are major drivers of the bubble. But he beat the S&P substantially over the long 15 year period, which is all that really matters. One thing the stock market and gambling have in common is that the short term doesn’t mean much
link to original post



The ironic thing is that to the corporate bean counters, the short term is everything. Far too many will sacrifice long-term growth for a good quarterly earnings report.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 237
  • Posts: 6793
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 23rd, 2022 at 3:50:29 PM permalink
___________


the 2 links show BRK's 10 year returns as being almost exactly the same as the S&P's

.
and we're referring to what some might call the world's greatest investor

.
https://kunaldesai.blog/berkshire-hathaway-returns/

.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO/performance?p=VOO


if you look down into the BRK performance you can see they had a gigantic return in 1998 which is what Buffett became famous for in the 70s, 80s and 90s

after 1998 there were no more gigantic yearly returns - there were some impressive gains in some years - but not more so than the S&P

I see a clear fairly long term trend - Buffett and BRK are no longer able to beat the S&P, at least not by any substantial margin



.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 23, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 10:01:21 AM permalink
Dow down 1000 pts but climbing back up at the moment

my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000

yes it means this is not yet a crash
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 10:30:45 AM permalink
My freshman year in high school, 1972/73 the Dow was at some sort of high and we discussed if the Dow would ever hit 1,000. My teacher thought if it ever happened, they would simply reset to 100 with a reverse split. It broke 1000 and nothing happened. A year later it was down 50%. I think it was over a decade before it cracked 1,000.
It's crazy to think today's Dow is 75X what is was fifty years ago.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 24th, 2022 at 10:48:56 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Dow down 1000 pts but climbing back up at the moment

my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000

yes it means this is not yet a crash
link to original post

Are you saying you’re a buyer at 28k? That would put market cap to GDP at about 1.63, which is still ridiculously overvalued.

The historic average is about .85, which would put the Dow around 14,000. A true crash would take the Dow well under 10k.
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 11:24:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit

Dow down 1000 pts but climbing back up at the moment

my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000

yes it means this is not yet a crash
link to original post

Are you saying you’re a buyer at 28k? That would put market cap to GDP at about 1.63, which is still ridiculously overvalued.

The historic average is about .85, which would put the Dow around 14,000. A true crash would take the Dow well under 10k.
link to original post

you have failed to convince me it would be a mistake, alas. Now, note some things

note:

*that I'm not buying today. Some people are or it would go down to who knows what.

*that I said I would start buying *cautiously* at 20% down, and not use the all time high to determine what 20% down is

*that anyone who has to get the blessings of some kind of recommended stock market behavior as opposed to gambling behavior, can point to re-balancing. I'm doing that too and I could stand to re-balance for sure
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 11:31:30 AM permalink
btw you haven't told us what your strategy is
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 24th, 2022 at 2:33:25 PM permalink
Typical Wall Street big players pulling a fast one. The big boys drop it hard and heavy over 1,000 point drop and then scoop up from the retail players who dumped tech stocks that were down 6-10% today.

No real reason for the turnaround but something triggered a big buying spree. Can’t be one lone entity. I’m sure the phones and communication were working OT this afternoon between institutional traders.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 3:00:26 PM permalink
A thousand-point swing is not a big deal when the Dow is pushing into the 40,000 range.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 24th, 2022 at 3:52:05 PM permalink
Those Wall Street big boys…you mean the ones that make millions in fees yet can’t even match S&P 500 returns?

Let them buy now and generate huge losses. They get their fees either way
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 24th, 2022 at 4:46:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Those Wall Street big boys…you mean the ones that make millions in fees yet can’t even match S&P 500 returns?

Let them buy now and generate huge losses. They get their fees either way
link to original post


Yep. Doesn’t matter to them. They make on either side.
MrV
MrV
  • Threads: 364
  • Posts: 8158
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
January 24th, 2022 at 4:46:51 PM permalink
I have every intention of riding it out as I am invested for the long haul.

Not surprising that the market is volatile right now.

Don't worry, be happy.
"What, me worry?"
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 24th, 2022 at 4:49:27 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

A thousand-point swing is not a big deal when the Dow is pushing into the 40,000 range.
link to original post


Thousand point Dow swings are fairly rare. Maybe 5 times per year. In this case, fully recovering the entire 1,100 point loss by end of day and going green is VERY rare.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 5:06:19 PM permalink
As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 24th, 2022 at 9:45:44 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 24th, 2022 at 10:48:42 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
link to original post



I think the smart money has already cashed out.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 24th, 2022 at 11:20:47 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
link to original post



I think the smart money has already cashed out.
link to original post


That’s possible. Higher pay grade than me. Timing the market is near impossible, imo.

I’m still trying to figure out how trading arms of big banks and hedge funds can do it when the master himself, Warren Buffet says he would go broke trying to day trade. That alone tells me something is “rigged”.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 25th, 2022 at 4:18:01 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
link to original post

Show me the financial advisor worth a hoot who recommends putting all your money into stocks, then retire.

People who were forced into selling to keep from losing 50% or more of their retirement portfolio were doing just that. Or they panicked and instead only had to wait a few months. These last two crashes were of short duration.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 25th, 2022 at 5:57:20 AM permalink
You can lead a donkey to the fountain of riches, but you can't make them drink.
Perhaps I was lucky that I started buying in the worst bear market in generations as he taught me to tamp down expectations.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 25th, 2022 at 8:59:47 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
link to original post

Show me the financial advisor worth a hoot who recommends putting all your money into stocks, then retire.

People who were forced into selling to keep from losing 50% or more of their retirement portfolio were doing just that. Or they panicked and instead only had to wait a few months. These last two crashes were of short duration.
link to original post



I stopped using financial advisors a long time ago. No longer is it the bespectacled guy driving home to his 3 bedroom cape cod, gas grille in the backyard, buys himself a new car every 5 years. Doesn’t have alimony or child support up the wazoo. Wasn’t greedy.

Everything turned. Greed took over. More took over. Now that bespectacled advisor is now a 30 something, wants a new Lexus lease every 2 years, $40,000 backyard grille set up and is on his second or 3rd marriage.

You ain’t making your income off me. I’m not funding your man cave extension.

The typical financial advisor role has changed. Devolved. In many cases it’s their own firm causing the devolve. What was my clients interests are #1…has now become what’s in it for me.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 25th, 2022 at 9:04:20 AM permalink
My financial advisor has a fiduciary obligation to put my needs above his or his firms. He makes money when I make money.
I hope he can buy a new Porsche every year. That means he did his job.

Care, loyalty and good faith. All fiduciary obligations your advisor owes you, if you have the right advisor. My advisor can't push a pink sheet cure for all that ails you simply because he makes a better commission off of it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 237
  • Posts: 6793
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 25th, 2022 at 9:23:34 AM permalink
______________


a few posts back there was discussion of the fact that so few funds beat the S&P index -

I did find one that long term has beat it pretty soundly - the fund from USAA ticker symbol USNQZ which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index

the Nasdaq 100 has only a slightly higher beta (volatility rating) than the S&P - here are some performance figures:


Nasdaq 100 - 3 year - 29.97%______S&P ________20.16%

5 year 23.90%___________________________________16.24%

10 year _20.25%_________________________________15.10%

15 year __15.34%________________________________ 10.00%



kinna interesting, to me anyway - and I will most probably buy some shares of this fund in the future



https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/mutualfunds/performance.asp?symbol=usnqx


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7605
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
January 25th, 2022 at 9:57:13 AM permalink

The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
January 25th, 2022 at 12:07:12 PM permalink
Amazon taking it on the chin again.

$2800.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 25th, 2022 at 12:15:00 PM permalink
Market down again and XOM outperforming at $74+

tuttigym
Gundy
Gundy
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 138
Joined: Feb 25, 2021
January 25th, 2022 at 3:05:58 PM permalink
Plunge Protection Team was active in the afternoon last two days.

I wish for free markets.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 25th, 2022 at 8:05:22 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

Quote: TDVegas

Quote: billryan

As the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
link to original post


It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.

1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.

Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.

65% decline.

Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
link to original post



I think the smart money has already cashed out.
link to original post


That’s possible. Higher pay grade than me. Timing the market is near impossible, imo.

I’m still trying to figure out how trading arms of big banks and hedge funds can do it when the master himself, Warren Buffet says he would go broke trying to day trade. That alone tells me something is “rigged”.
link to original post

No one can time the market exactly

But one thing is for sure: bull markets always come to an end. And this one has been going strong for ten years, especially the last 3-5. This sudden, near 10% drop in the S&P is not normal for this super bull market

Traditional valuations show the market extremely overpriced…maybe more than ever before. Of course the market could continue going up a bit more, but how much more insanely overvalued can it get. I believe that if you sell now, it will probably look like a very smart decision within a year, if not sooner
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jan 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 26th, 2022 at 6:21:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

No one can time the market exactly

But one thing is for sure: bull markets always come to an end. And this one has been going strong for ten years, especially the last 3-5. This sudden, near 10% drop in the S&P is not normal for this super bull market

Traditional valuations show the market extremely overpriced…maybe more than ever before. Of course the market could continue going up a bit more, but how much more insanely overvalued can it get. I believe that if you sell now, it will probably look like a very smart decision within a year, if not sooner
link to original post

It's not good enough to time it so that you sell at near top-market, which takes some luck. You also have to get back in at the right time. Market timing has consistently been shown to be a loser, mostly because of this second factor. People simply screw it up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9644
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
January 26th, 2022 at 6:24:50 AM permalink
Ace2, did you sell all or a portion?

the following is from an email a friend sent me

Quote:

My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!

parentheses content mine
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 26th, 2022 at 6:58:21 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Ace2, did you sell all or a portion?

the following is from an email a friend sent me

Quote:

My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!

parentheses content mine
link to original post




Some people simply never learn. If this hypothetical person is dumping everything whenever he panics and buys it all back when it has gone higher and hasn't realized this isn't working, I'm not going to feel bad for him or her.
People- If you don't know what you are doing, hire someone who does. It amazes me that people have specialists to clean their teeth and to cut their hair but somehow think only rich folks should pay for financial advice.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1917
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
January 26th, 2022 at 7:53:16 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It's not good enough to time it so that you sell at near top-market, which takes some luck. You also have to get back in at the right time. Market timing has consistently been shown to be a loser, mostly because of this second factor. People simply screw it up.


I sold my whole portfolio in 2006 about 2 yrs before the "crash." Stayed out of the market until my IRA transfer and purchase of XOM. Will sell again when the stock reaches MY target price after which I will stay out of the market.

It is kinda like the way I play craps. You know -- win and walk.

tuttigym
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11141
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 26th, 2022 at 10:05:42 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: odiousgambit

Ace2, did you sell all or a portion?

the following is from an email a friend sent me

Quote:

My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!

parentheses content mine
link to original post




Some people simply never learn. If this hypothetical person is dumping everything whenever he panics and buys it all back when it has gone higher and hasn't realized this isn't working, I'm not going to feel bad for him or her.
People- If you don't know what you are doing, hire someone who does. It amazes me that people have specialists to clean their teeth and to cut their hair but somehow think only rich folks should pay for financial advice.
link to original post



I'll type this quickly as I am about to go pay someone to clean my teeth. I don't pay for financial advice, in the sense that I manage my own accounts. For simplicity, let's say I have (make up a number) $2,000,000 in investable money. Most brokers want $10,000 - 20,000 for their advice per year. It's not as if there is a true fiduciary that I can go see for the necessary 2-3 hours a year and pay him $500 or so. Alls I knows is that the 1% annually when a reasonable expectation is 8%, means you are being charged a boatload for their advice.
I will agree with you that for many (most?) people, managing their own money is fraught with the possibilities for big mistakes. But, I'll bet the majority of people on this forum would be able to manage their own accounts with a higher return than an 'expert' if you include the fees the expert gets.
I only use 1 financial advisor, and that is because he gets me into some private equity deals that I'd have no access to without him. I don't pay him anything, but I'm sure he makes a pretty penny from the investments directly.
  • Jump to: