What are your investing thoughts
It will be interesting to see what the Fed does. In the pandemic drop it could focus on re-boosting the economy, but this time should there be a swoon it has the dual task of that and controlling inflation too.Quote: Ace2The stock market declined roughly 1% per day over the last five days, which is noteworthy in this bubble market that seems to never go down. Could not hold a gain for a day
I believe this may be the first whiff of a long overdue correction. Stock market capitalization currently stands at about 200% of GDP, the highest ever. In 2000 it peaked at 140% right before the tech bubble burst
The market will revert back to a normal valuation (80 - 100% of GDP). Always does…question is when not if. I have trailing stop loss orders on everything
Real estate bubble to burst right after stocks.
It’s unfortunate that the USA is now a boom and bust economy. Crashes about every ten years like a developing nation. As usual, the Fed is mostly to blame…they left interest rates way too low for way too long…again
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The gambler comes out in me during these corrections. I did very well with the 2008 one, picking the bottom pretty well, though as usual I wish I had invested more. In the 2020 crash I thought the bottom was not reached yet and didn't get my bets down like I wanted, so to speak. I did get some down but you could say the Fed screwed me by acting so strongly purchasing assets. Can this really happen again?
My only risk factor with my timeline is if stocks go down and stay down for years. In the last two crashes this did not happen, I hope it didn't spoil us.
I wouldn’t count on a quick “recovery” this time since the market is at least 100% overvalued. Probably take a decade or more for prices to get back up to where they are nowQuote: odiousgambit[
My only risk factor with my timeline is if stocks go down and stay down for years. In the last two crashes this did not happen, I hope it didn't spoil us.
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Look at the Nasdaq. It took 15 years for it to return to it’s 2000 bubble level. Or look at the last real estate bubble markets …only recently did prices get back up to 2006 levels
Quote: Ace2I wouldn’t count on a quick “recovery” this time since the market is at least 100% overvalued. Probably take a decade or more for prices to get back up to where they are now
Look at the Nasdaq. It took 15 years for it to return to it’s 2000 bubble level. Or look at the last real estate bubble markets …only recently did prices get back up to 2006 levels
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A decade or more! ouch!
Of course to say 'you might wait 15 years' will strongly apply to anything you bought recently and less strongly to what you might have bought in March 2020. And real estate is notorious for long recovery times after a crash.
As for NYSE stocks and ETFs during a crash, I generally wait till things are 20% down from about now to get 'interested'. Not 20% down from the all time high, and buying cautiously at first, in other words. And then I plot a dollar cost averaging scheme ... if the market keeps going down, I'm still buying, getting more bold as it heads to 50% down.
Let's say we have a true crash. Do you just hunker down or what do you do?
tuttigym
Quote: billryanInvesting half your retirement money in an individual stock works great until it doesn't.
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Well, somebody on this forum told me to make "max" bets to increase my "bankroll." They implied I did not know anything about gambling, so..........
For the last 10 years I have been taking the mandatory (by law) minimum annual distribution from my IRA. The growth rate within the account was about 3% so that my net loss each year was about 2%. That investment has increased my IRA total account to about 140% of its original amount from the starting point 10 years ago plus the dividends from the stock now equal the required annual minimum distribution, so there is NO net loss from the account.
And, yes, I will probably live until I die.
tuttigym
Quote: KottonIndeed, trying to determine the time in the markets is not recommended.
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To paraphrase Billryan, timing the market is not recommended until it is.
tuttigym
Good oneQuote: tuttigymQuote: KottonIndeed, trying to determine the time in the markets is not recommended.
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To paraphrase Billryan, timing the market is not recommended until it is.
tuttigym
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10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.
Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
Quote: TDVegasSeems artificial. Run it up, run it down. Rinse, repeat. I’m not a big believer in a diversified portfolio so the last 10 days or so, the losses get magnified. Still, I’d rather pick 2-3 stocks that I truly believe in…product, leadership, innovation and profit. Roll the dice.
10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.
Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
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In this market, if your stocks were half up and half down for the year, you need to get better advice. We've been in a massive bull run and it's much more like 95% up at the end of the year. If you can't make money with a diverse portfolio , you should consider paying someone who will make it for you.
Quote: billryanQuote: TDVegasSeems artificial. Run it up, run it down. Rinse, repeat. I’m not a big believer in a diversified portfolio so the last 10 days or so, the losses get magnified. Still, I’d rather pick 2-3 stocks that I truly believe in…product, leadership, innovation and profit. Roll the dice.
10-15 stocks usually means 5-7 go up, 5-7 go down and you’re the hamster on a wheel.
Big week with a bunch of tech earnings. If NFLX is any indication…look out below.
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In this market, if your stocks were half up and half down for the year, you need to get better advice. We've been in a massive bull run and it's much more like 95% up at the end of the year. If you can't make money with a diverse portfolio , you should consider paying someone who will make it for you.
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an awful lot of talk about where the market is headed out there from the talking heads
I believe they know just as much as me - no more - no less
I know nothing and they know nothing - their predictions are worthless - and so would mine be if I made any
that's the nature of the thing - it's really not at all logical - that's obvious from 2021 - but in lots of other ways too
I stay the course no matter what - nothing can scare me out - I believe in a clear long term upward bias - nothing else
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Quote: billryanTo each his own, but if I thought I knew half as much as my advisor, I'd have to think his seven years of schooling and the decade he learned from the bottom up on Wall St. was useless. I might as well think I know as much as my doctors. Ask Warren Zevon how that worked out.
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every single year something like 70% or more of Wall Street Portfolio Managers probably making in the neighborhood of $25 mill per year underperform the S&P 500 index
what does that tell you?
it tells me that I don't give a flying eff what they say - which is how I've invest now and have invested for about 45 years - and have done very well - nobody's going to write a book about my gains - but that's okay - I've beaten about 70% or more of the million dollar Portfolio Managers
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanTo each his own, but if I thought I knew half as much as my advisor, I'd have to think his seven years of schooling and the decade he learned from the bottom up on Wall St. was useless. I might as well think I know as much as my doctors. Ask Warren Zevon how that worked out.
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every single year something like 70% or more of Wall Street Portfolio Managers probably making in the neighborhood of $25 mill per year underperform the S&P 500 index
what does that tell you?
it tells me that I don't give an eff what they say - which is how I've invest now and have invested for about 45 years - and have done very well - nobody's going to write a book about my gains - but that's okay - I've beaten about 70% or more of the million dollar Portfolio Managers
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It tells you most of them aren’t fiduciaries and have conflicts of interest, for one.
even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now
from the article:
"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html
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tuttigym
Here are closing values of S&P 500 for 2006. 2011, 2016 and 2021 respectively: 1418, 1257, 2283 and 4766. The corresponding values for Brk.a are 110000, 117000, 248000, and 445000Quote: lilredrooster_________
even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now
from the article:
"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"
.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html
.
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So the 5, 10 and 15 year cumulative returns for the S&P are 109%, 279% and 236%
The corresponding returns for Brk are 79%, 280% and 305%
Only lagged a bit in the 5-year return and I think that’s normal in a bubble market since Warren doesn’t invest in the speculative stocks that are major drivers of the bubble. But he beat the S&P substantially over the long 15 year period, which is all that really matters. One thing the stock market and gambling have in common is that the short term doesn’t mean much
Quote: Ace2Here are closing values of S&P 500 for 2006. 2011, 2016 and 2021 respectively: 1418, 1257, 2283 and 4766. The corresponding values for Brk.a are 110000, 117000, 248000, and 445000Quote: lilredrooster_________
even the great Warren Buffett has gotten beat by the index - for a long time now
from the article:
"his company has lagged the index over the past 5, 10, and 15 year periods according to data from S&P Global"
.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how-warren-buffetts-uphill-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html
.
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So the 5, 10 and 15 year cumulative returns for the S&P are 109%, 279% and 236%
The corresponding returns for Brk are 79%, 280% and 305%
Only lagged a bit in the 5-year return and I think that’s normal in a bubble market since Warren doesn’t invest in the speculative stocks that are major drivers of the bubble. But he beat the S&P substantially over the long 15 year period, which is all that really matters. One thing the stock market and gambling have in common is that the short term doesn’t mean much
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The ironic thing is that to the corporate bean counters, the short term is everything. Far too many will sacrifice long-term growth for a good quarterly earnings report.
the 2 links show BRK's 10 year returns as being almost exactly the same as the S&P's
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and we're referring to what some might call the world's greatest investor
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https://kunaldesai.blog/berkshire-hathaway-returns/
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO/performance?p=VOO
if you look down into the BRK performance you can see they had a gigantic return in 1998 which is what Buffett became famous for in the 70s, 80s and 90s
after 1998 there were no more gigantic yearly returns - there were some impressive gains in some years - but not more so than the S&P
I see a clear fairly long term trend - Buffett and BRK are no longer able to beat the S&P, at least not by any substantial margin
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my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000
yes it means this is not yet a crash
It's crazy to think today's Dow is 75X what is was fifty years ago.
Are you saying you’re a buyer at 28k? That would put market cap to GDP at about 1.63, which is still ridiculously overvalued.Quote: odiousgambitDow down 1000 pts but climbing back up at the moment
my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000
yes it means this is not yet a crash
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The historic average is about .85, which would put the Dow around 14,000. A true crash would take the Dow well under 10k.
you have failed to convince me it would be a mistake, alas. Now, note some thingsQuote: Ace2Are you saying you’re a buyer at 28k? That would put market cap to GDP at about 1.63, which is still ridiculously overvalued.Quote: odiousgambitDow down 1000 pts but climbing back up at the moment
my kind of plan doesn't go into action yet, has to get below 30,000 ... really more like 28,000
yes it means this is not yet a crash
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The historic average is about .85, which would put the Dow around 14,000. A true crash would take the Dow well under 10k.
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note:
*that I'm not buying today. Some people are or it would go down to who knows what.
*that I said I would start buying *cautiously* at 20% down, and not use the all time high to determine what 20% down is
*that anyone who has to get the blessings of some kind of recommended stock market behavior as opposed to gambling behavior, can point to re-balancing. I'm doing that too and I could stand to re-balance for sure
No real reason for the turnaround but something triggered a big buying spree. Can’t be one lone entity. I’m sure the phones and communication were working OT this afternoon between institutional traders.
Let them buy now and generate huge losses. They get their fees either way
Quote: Ace2Those Wall Street big boys…you mean the ones that make millions in fees yet can’t even match S&P 500 returns?
Let them buy now and generate huge losses. They get their fees either way
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Yep. Doesn’t matter to them. They make on either side.
Not surprising that the market is volatile right now.
Don't worry, be happy.
Quote: billryanA thousand-point swing is not a big deal when the Dow is pushing into the 40,000 range.
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Thousand point Dow swings are fairly rare. Maybe 5 times per year. In this case, fully recovering the entire 1,100 point loss by end of day and going green is VERY rare.
Quote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
Quote: TDVegasQuote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
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I think the smart money has already cashed out.
Quote: billryanQuote: TDVegasQuote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
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I think the smart money has already cashed out.
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That’s possible. Higher pay grade than me. Timing the market is near impossible, imo.
I’m still trying to figure out how trading arms of big banks and hedge funds can do it when the master himself, Warren Buffet says he would go broke trying to day trade. That alone tells me something is “rigged”.
Show me the financial advisor worth a hoot who recommends putting all your money into stocks, then retire.Quote: TDVegasQuote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
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People who were forced into selling to keep from losing 50% or more of their retirement portfolio were doing just that. Or they panicked and instead only had to wait a few months. These last two crashes were of short duration.
Perhaps I was lucky that I started buying in the worst bear market in generations as he taught me to tamp down expectations.
Quote: odiousgambitShow me the financial advisor worth a hoot who recommends putting all your money into stocks, then retire.Quote: TDVegasQuote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
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People who were forced into selling to keep from losing 50% or more of their retirement portfolio were doing just that. Or they panicked and instead only had to wait a few months. These last two crashes were of short duration.
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I stopped using financial advisors a long time ago. No longer is it the bespectacled guy driving home to his 3 bedroom cape cod, gas grille in the backyard, buys himself a new car every 5 years. Doesn’t have alimony or child support up the wazoo. Wasn’t greedy.
Everything turned. Greed took over. More took over. Now that bespectacled advisor is now a 30 something, wants a new Lexus lease every 2 years, $40,000 backyard grille set up and is on his second or 3rd marriage.
You ain’t making your income off me. I’m not funding your man cave extension.
The typical financial advisor role has changed. Devolved. In many cases it’s their own firm causing the devolve. What was my clients interests are #1…has now become what’s in it for me.
I hope he can buy a new Porsche every year. That means he did his job.
Care, loyalty and good faith. All fiduciary obligations your advisor owes you, if you have the right advisor. My advisor can't push a pink sheet cure for all that ails you simply because he makes a better commission off of it.
a few posts back there was discussion of the fact that so few funds beat the S&P index -
I did find one that long term has beat it pretty soundly - the fund from USAA ticker symbol USNQZ which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index
the Nasdaq 100 has only a slightly higher beta (volatility rating) than the S&P - here are some performance figures:
Nasdaq 100 - 3 year - 29.97%______S&P ________20.16%
5 year 23.90%___________________________________16.24%
10 year _20.25%_________________________________15.10%
15 year __15.34%________________________________ 10.00%
kinna interesting, to me anyway - and I will most probably buy some shares of this fund in the future
https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/mutualfunds/performance.asp?symbol=usnqx
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The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions.
$2800.
tuttigym
I wish for free markets.
No one can time the market exactlyQuote: TDVegasQuote: billryanQuote: TDVegasQuote: billryanAs the Dow goes seemingly ever upwards, they will be more common. When I started buying stock, the idea the Dow would someday break 1,000 was a pipe dream. Then 10,000. Someday it may hit 100,000.
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It really depends on when you catch it. The meltdown in 2008 caused many to cash out…because they basically had to before they lost 50-60-70% of the portfolio and retirement value. They didn’t really have a choice…even though many will disagree. It’s easy to disagree after we know it eventually went back up.
1987…2008…maybe we are getting close to due.
Moderna hit a high of $484…currently $154.
65% decline.
Some might say don’t sell. When is enough enough?
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I think the smart money has already cashed out.
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That’s possible. Higher pay grade than me. Timing the market is near impossible, imo.
I’m still trying to figure out how trading arms of big banks and hedge funds can do it when the master himself, Warren Buffet says he would go broke trying to day trade. That alone tells me something is “rigged”.
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But one thing is for sure: bull markets always come to an end. And this one has been going strong for ten years, especially the last 3-5. This sudden, near 10% drop in the S&P is not normal for this super bull market
Traditional valuations show the market extremely overpriced…maybe more than ever before. Of course the market could continue going up a bit more, but how much more insanely overvalued can it get. I believe that if you sell now, it will probably look like a very smart decision within a year, if not sooner
It's not good enough to time it so that you sell at near top-market, which takes some luck. You also have to get back in at the right time. Market timing has consistently been shown to be a loser, mostly because of this second factor. People simply screw it up.Quote: Ace2No one can time the market exactly
But one thing is for sure: bull markets always come to an end. And this one has been going strong for ten years, especially the last 3-5. This sudden, near 10% drop in the S&P is not normal for this super bull market
Traditional valuations show the market extremely overpriced…maybe more than ever before. Of course the market could continue going up a bit more, but how much more insanely overvalued can it get. I believe that if you sell now, it will probably look like a very smart decision within a year, if not sooner
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the following is from an email a friend sent me
parentheses content mineQuote:My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!
Quote: odiousgambitAce2, did you sell all or a portion?
the following is from an email a friend sent meparentheses content mineQuote:My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!
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Some people simply never learn. If this hypothetical person is dumping everything whenever he panics and buys it all back when it has gone higher and hasn't realized this isn't working, I'm not going to feel bad for him or her.
People- If you don't know what you are doing, hire someone who does. It amazes me that people have specialists to clean their teeth and to cut their hair but somehow think only rich folks should pay for financial advice.
Quote: odiousgambitIt's not good enough to time it so that you sell at near top-market, which takes some luck. You also have to get back in at the right time. Market timing has consistently been shown to be a loser, mostly because of this second factor. People simply screw it up.
I sold my whole portfolio in 2006 about 2 yrs before the "crash." Stayed out of the market until my IRA transfer and purchase of XOM. Will sell again when the stock reaches MY target price after which I will stay out of the market.
It is kinda like the way I play craps. You know -- win and walk.
tuttigym
Quote: billryanQuote: odiousgambitAce2, did you sell all or a portion?
the following is from an email a friend sent meparentheses content mineQuote:My poor neighbor. Took all out when pandemic started. Bought back when rebound. Sold everything when Trump lost! Bought back on comeback and now sold everything yesterday morning (meaning the 24th). I am guessing he has lost millions? His whiplash moves are crazy!
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Some people simply never learn. If this hypothetical person is dumping everything whenever he panics and buys it all back when it has gone higher and hasn't realized this isn't working, I'm not going to feel bad for him or her.
People- If you don't know what you are doing, hire someone who does. It amazes me that people have specialists to clean their teeth and to cut their hair but somehow think only rich folks should pay for financial advice.
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I'll type this quickly as I am about to go pay someone to clean my teeth. I don't pay for financial advice, in the sense that I manage my own accounts. For simplicity, let's say I have (make up a number) $2,000,000 in investable money. Most brokers want $10,000 - 20,000 for their advice per year. It's not as if there is a true fiduciary that I can go see for the necessary 2-3 hours a year and pay him $500 or so. Alls I knows is that the 1% annually when a reasonable expectation is 8%, means you are being charged a boatload for their advice.
I will agree with you that for many (most?) people, managing their own money is fraught with the possibilities for big mistakes. But, I'll bet the majority of people on this forum would be able to manage their own accounts with a higher return than an 'expert' if you include the fees the expert gets.
I only use 1 financial advisor, and that is because he gets me into some private equity deals that I'd have no access to without him. I don't pay him anything, but I'm sure he makes a pretty penny from the investments directly.
