lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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November 24th, 2021 at 4:14:29 PM permalink
___________


for a market such as the U.S. stock market which has a proven long term upward bias I believe there is not a codified strategy that can beat the simple strategy of buy and hold - referring to index or mutual funds which cover the broad market


a relatively small number of talented individuals can and do beat the market

but they do this with knowledge and insight that few others have

they don't do it because they have a codified strategy that follows rules of when to buy and sell


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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November 24th, 2021 at 4:39:56 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

___________


for a market such as the U.S. stock market which has a proven long term upward bias I believe there is not a codified strategy that can beat the simple strategy of buy and hold - referring to index or mutual funds which cover the broad market


a relatively small number of talented individuals can and do beat the market

but they do this with knowledge and insight that few others have

they don't do it because they have a codified strategy that follows rules of when to buy and sell


.
link to original post

I disagree. Well, depends on what you mean by codified strategy.
Within any such mainstream market, there will be sectors that have disparate and longstanding trends. An investor only needs to click on the right sector at the right time and find himself swept forward faster and higher than the entire market. E.g. realise that online shopping or electric vehicles are a hot trend, and away he goes till the trend turns. Because sectors are huge, they can be slow enough to turn up or down that an aware investor can jump to the next sector in a timely manner.
Or even leap between markets entirely, such as moving funds to India, Asia, Russia, South America, Europe.
Of course, all sectors and markets can turn down separately or in unison in the blink of an eye or upon a major world event. March 2020 blipped many a chart.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 188
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November 24th, 2021 at 4:50:02 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: lilredrooster

___________


for a market such as the U.S. stock market which has a proven long term upward bias I believe there is not a codified strategy that can beat the simple strategy of buy and hold - referring to index or mutual funds which cover the broad market


a relatively small number of talented individuals can and do beat the market

but they do this with knowledge and insight that few others have

they don't do it because they have a codified strategy that follows rules of when to buy and sell


.
link to original post

I disagree. Well, depends on what you mean by codified strategy.
Within any such mainstream market, there will be sectors that have disparate and longstanding trends. An investor only needs to click on the right sector 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 and find himself swept forward faster and higher than the entire market. E.g. realise that online shopping or electric vehicles are a hot trend, and away he goes till the trend turns. Because sectors are huge, they can be slow enough to turn up or down that an aware investor can jump to the next sector 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙧.
Or even leap between markets entirely, such as moving funds to India, Asia, Russia, South America, Europe.
Of course, all sectors and markets can turn down separately or in unison in the blink of an eye or upon a major world event. March 2020 blipped many a chart.
link to original post




I disagree with your disagreement

you're talking about 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩..................something much easier said than done

also, you're not referring to a codified strategy which is what I was referring to

yes, there are some, I believe few, who can do this or something similar - but it's not codified - it requires knowledge and insightful speculation

also, and very important..................the buy and holder is subject to only nominal capital gains taxes each year

those who trade actively - if they have a yearly profit - will have capital gains tax obligations - often significant - each and every profitable year - at least if they are based in the U.S.

also, something I have personal experience with...............if part of the reason a person is investing is to pass on wealth to his heirs.....................when the funds are passed on due to a death - all of the accumulated capital gains are forgiven - for the beneficiary - they have no capital gains tax obligation - due to something that accountants call 𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙥 𝙪𝙥 𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙨


if a person is trading in an IRA account then they are not subject to capital gains taxes and the above points do not apply


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 24, 2021
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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November 24th, 2021 at 5:06:48 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: lilredrooster

___________


for a market such as the U.S. stock market which has a proven long term upward bias I believe there is not a codified strategy that can beat the simple strategy of buy and hold - referring to index or mutual funds which cover the broad market


a relatively small number of talented individuals can and do beat the market

but they do this with knowledge and insight that few others have

they don't do it because they have a codified strategy that follows rules of when to buy and sell


.
link to original post

I disagree. Well, depends on what you mean by codified strategy.
Within any such mainstream market, there will be sectors that have disparate and longstanding trends. An investor only needs to click on the right sector 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 and find himself swept forward faster and higher than the entire market. E.g. realise that online shopping or electric vehicles are a hot trend, and away he goes till the trend turns. Because sectors are huge, they can be slow enough to turn up or down that an aware investor can jump to the next sector 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙧.
Or even leap between markets entirely, such as moving funds to India, Asia, Russia, South America, Europe.
Of course, all sectors and markets can turn down separately or in unison in the blink of an eye or upon a major world event. March 2020 blipped many a chart.
link to original post




I disagree with your disagreement

you're talking about 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩..................something much easier said than done

also, you're not referring to a codified strategy which is what I was referring to

yes, there are some, I believe few, who can do this or something similar - but it's not codified - it requires knowledge and insightful speculation

also, and very important..................the buy and holder is subject to only nominal capital gains taxes each year

those who trade actively - if they have a yearly profit - will have capital gains tax obligations - often significant - each and every profitable year - at least if they are based in the U.S.

also, something I have personal experience with...............if part of the reason a person is investing is to pass on wealth to his heirs.....................when the funds are passed on due to a death - all of the accumulated capital gains are forgiven - for the beneficiary - they have no capital gains tax obligation - due to something that accountants call 𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙥 𝙪𝙥 𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙨


.
link to original post

I accept and agree with your comment about codified strategy. Timing market sectors does require insight or luck.
Capital Gains tax rules vary by nation. Here in the UK we can have certain accounts where No CGT obligation accrues, But I don't think we escape CGT on death as our inheritance taxes are not so easy going.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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November 24th, 2021 at 5:34:31 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: lilredrooster

___________


for a market such as the U.S. stock market which has a proven long term upward bias I believe there is not a codified strategy that can beat the simple strategy of buy and hold - referring to index or mutual funds which cover the broad market


a relatively small number of talented individuals can and do beat the market

but they do this with knowledge and insight that few others have

they don't do it because they have a codified strategy that follows rules of when to buy and sell


.
link to original post

I disagree. Well, depends on what you mean by codified strategy.
Within any such mainstream market, there will be sectors that have disparate and longstanding trends. An investor only needs to click on the right sector 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 and find himself swept forward faster and higher than the entire market. E.g. realise that online shopping or electric vehicles are a hot trend, and away he goes till the trend turns. Because sectors are huge, they can be slow enough to turn up or down that an aware investor can jump to the next sector 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙧.
Or even leap between markets entirely, such as moving funds to India, Asia, Russia, South America, Europe.
Of course, all sectors and markets can turn down separately or in unison in the blink of an eye or upon a major world event. March 2020 blipped many a chart.
link to original post




I disagree with your disagreement

you're talking about 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩..................something much easier said than done

also, you're not referring to a codified strategy which is what I was referring to

yes, there are some, I believe few, who can do this or something similar - but it's not codified - it requires knowledge and insightful speculation

also, and very important..................the buy and holder is subject to only nominal capital gains taxes each year

those who trade actively - if they have a yearly profit - will have capital gains tax obligations - often significant - each and every profitable year - at least if they are based in the U.S.

also, something I have personal experience with...............if part of the reason a person is investing is to pass on wealth to his heirs.....................when the funds are passed on due to a death - all of the accumulated capital gains are forgiven - for the beneficiary - they have no capital gains tax obligation - due to something that accountants call 𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙥 𝙪𝙥 𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙨


if a person is trading in an IRA account then they are not subject to capital gains taxes and the above points do not apply


.
link to original post


Short term capital gains are a killer for active traders. Worse than the vig. My guess is less than 5% sitting in their pajamas, actively trading, are actually making money YOY.

Up to 37% for capital gains means you’ve got a LOT to overcome.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2021 at 5:53:10 PM permalink
I-B-D-S.
No capital gains, no income tax. It is better than a Defined Plan or Sliced Beer.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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  • Posts: 939
November 24th, 2021 at 5:57:01 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I-B-D-S.
No capital gains, no income tax. It is better than a Defined Plan or Sliced Beer.
link to original post


Otherwise known as Irritable Bowel Disease.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2021 at 6:24:12 PM permalink
Taxes are for little people.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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