WoV stock portfolio

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit

Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up
link to original post

Yeah, I'm thinking of buying back 10% of what I sold on Oct 8 on mon morning.
Lock in that 3% profit.

I will also buy back 40% for every 10% drop after that.
So buying at -3%, -13%, -23%, and -33% market drop (assuming correction will continue to take place next week)
link to original post

step 1 completed yesterday: Bought back 10% of what i sold 1 1/2 months ago on yesterday's drop.
it was 2.4% lower than when i sold. close enough to 3% and i don't have to keep thinking about it for only .6%

Now to wait for 13% lower than when i sold
link to original post

As you know I don't think you should be trying market timing, but you are determined to do it so let's see, it's not impossible to succeed of course. As for your plan, I just wouldn't wait for 33% down ... or even 23%. You must really believe this economy is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Maybe the AI connected stocks are due for a radical drop, but it easily could go in the opposite direction after what I would call this needed correction

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit

Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up
link to original post

Yeah, I'm thinking of buying back 10% of what I sold on Oct 8 on mon morning.
Lock in that 3% profit.

I will also buy back 40% for every 10% drop after that.
So buying at -3%, -13%, -23%, and -33% market drop (assuming correction will continue to take place next week)
link to original post

step 1 completed yesterday: Bought back 10% of what i sold 1 1/2 months ago on yesterday's drop.
it was 2.4% lower than when i sold. close enough to 3% and i don't have to keep thinking about it for only .6%

Now to wait for 13% lower than when i sold
link to original post

As you know I don't think you should be trying market timing, but you are determined to do it so let's see, it's not impossible to succeed of course. As for your plan, I just wouldn't wait for 33% down ... or even 23%. You must really believe this economy is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Maybe the AI connected stocks are due for a radical drop, but it easily could go in the opposite direction after what I would call this needed correction
link to original post

As i said earlier, it's a gamble with a floor of ~4% tbills.
And yes, all this gov't debt is artificially propping up the economy.
i believe This house of cards will tumble, but when?

Will it go up 30%+ before tumbling 20%, i dont know. (i will lose my gamble if this happens)
But i'm ok if lose with a 4% floor.

Shall we assume none of your stocks pay dividends, and by selling them all six weeks ago, you didn't miss any? Saying you'll do something at 3%, but then doing it at 2.4 %shows a lack of discipline.
If I plan on buying Tesla at $200 but decide to buy it at $211, would anyone say I stuck to my plan?

Quote: billryan

Shall we assume none of your stocks pay dividends, and by selling them all six weeks ago, you didn't miss any? Saying you'll do something at 3%, but then doing it at 2.4 %shows a lack of discipline.
If I plan on buying Tesla at $200 but decide to buy it at $211, would anyone say I stuck to my plan?
link to original post

Circumstances change. If I win the $1.2 million in the Draft Kings survivor pool (Ravens on Sunday) I will change my stock buying/selling/investing plans. First thing I dos pay off mortgage, not because it is necessarily the smart thing, I just hate debt. Then I’ll buy a bunch of the AIPI type stocks. And the rest into the 3.7% or so money market. I’m only doing the money market now. Unless DougGander gives me a pick….

I'm planning to sell half of my AIPI/CEPI/FEPI holdings early next year, after the December dividends are paid. It turns out I can get by on much less income than I'd budgeted so I'm trading income for a bit less risk. At this point, I just need to beat inflation and should probably be in all in T-Bills

Quote: SOOPOO

If I win the $1.2 million in the Draft Kings survivor pool (Ravens on Sunday)

just curious -
were you serious - ? - do you really have a decent shot at it - ?
I see you doing excellent both this year and last in the Wov picks thing

if you were serious - wow - that's fantastic -

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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

If I win the $1.2 million in the Draft Kings survivor pool (Ravens on Sunday)

just curious -
were you serious - ? - do you really have a decent shot at it - ?
I see you doing excellent both this year and last in the Wov picks thing

if you were serious - wow - that's fantastic -

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link to original post

Decent? I’d guess I’d say so. I can’t see which teams other contestants have already used. They list my ‘equity’ at around $180. But I’m not allowed to actually cash that out. If there are 7000 players left , and we can postulate one winner, I’d have around a 1/6000 chance since I’ve used some ‘bad’ teams already.

I have Ravens this week.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DougGander

Quote: SOOPOO

Well, DougGander…. I’m asking for a recommendation! This portfolio was started by asking each member to make a suggestion, and I bought them! So what stock should I buy? Or ETF if you prefer.
It’s in a retirement account, so no present tax consequences if it does or does not pay a dividend.
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I don't think you would want to invest in anything I would want to invest in. I have very high risk tolerance. I am actively trying to lose 90% of my trades and hit big on the 10% making up the losses. Normal people do not want to do that.

I think for most people an international ETF is a good idea. What bothered me about Rooster's and other similar posts is that they didn't actually seem to be following their OWN utility of sensible risk-averse with some upside exposure. I can't see the S&P 500 won't do well this year or not, but it does seem VERY likely that this will be mostly down to whether Nvidia crashes and burns or not. If you do want to take that type of risk Nvidia is not that company: I've had a passionate interest in computing and AI for 40 years and I couldn't tell you where that train is going.
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Ummmmm…. I’m the guy that was essentially 100% in equities for 30 years…. I’ve relayed stories of buying 3 stocks per year, with one year 2 going bankrupt and the other is now a 40 bagger. So give me any one stock you like and don’t worry about it being too risky for me. I will put around .1-.2% of my portfolio in it.
I already have a few international ETFs and individual stocks as well. My favorite has been BAP which I got a few decades ago at 6. It’s now 240 or so.
link to original post

OK well if you REALLY want to lose money here's a stock for you: Rigetti.

There's a sort of rationale here in that, and I don't think any one has noticed this, quantum computing is actually being employed as a hybrid function in finance. I'm guessing everyone is focused on AI but that is a huge deal: it is coming way faster than any one expected. If Rigetti makes quantum computing a thing all bets are off you are looking at trillions of dollars.

Slightly more risk-averse options are D-Wave and IonQ who are closer to the quantum hybrid model (Rigetti aren't)but don't have quite the same insane growth potential if only due to the fact their CEO's didn't just tell everyone quantum computing is 15 years away.

Quote: billryan

Twenty minutes ago, I received a strong buy alert from The Stanberry Digest. I'm not sure how I ended up on their mailing list, but this was supposed to be a special alert for their top picks.
They recommend a stock - RGTI that they claimed had a 25X upside.
Just for laughs, I check the stock, and it is down 12% this morning. It appears that not many buyers took advantage of the Special Alert.

RGTI aims to be a leader in the field of quantum computing, another area I know nothing about. It's bleeding resources, the price is in a steep decline, and it has many better-financed competitors. At best, it is a strongly speculative stock and not something I'd expect someone to tout as the next big thing.
link to original post

I mentioned Rigetti a few weeks ago. It's speculation.

Quote: billryan

Quote: billryan

Twenty minutes ago, I received a strong buy alert from The Stanberry Digest. I'm not sure how I ended up on their mailing list, but this was supposed to be a special alert for their top picks.
They recommend a stock - RGTI that they claimed had a 25X upside.
Just for laughs, I check the stock, and it is down 12% this morning. It appears that not many buyers took advantage of the Special Alert.

RGTI aims to be a leader in the field of quantum computing, another area I know nothing about. It's bleeding resources, the price is in a steep decline, and it has many better-financed competitors. At best, it is a strongly speculative stock and not something I'd expect someone to tout as the next big thing.
link to original post

I mentioned Rigetti a few weeks ago. It's speculation.
link to original post

Oh hell yeah, that's the point. Sorry I missed your post.

How is that the same stocks that I felt stupid for owning yesterday make me feel like a genius today?

SOOPOO is in on RGTI at 22.50. I may buy more tomorrow.

Looks like market crash is over. What makes today different than yesterday?

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is in on RGTI at 22.50. I may buy more tomorrow.

Looks like market crash is over. What makes today different than yesterday?
link to original post

Careful! In my experience, market corrections are like vomiting. Just when you think you're done... you're not.

Macy's has a 25% off sale, and the sheep run in.
Wall St has a 25% off sale, and the sheep run away.

I collected on a debt I'd written off, yesterday, and sunk the $1100 into three Fidelity crypto funds. One tracks Bitcoin, one Solera( sp?), and one the general market. I'm treating it like getting a free five-year CD, and will budget my 2031 vacation around it.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is in on RGTI at 22.50. I may buy more tomorrow.

Looks like market crash is over. What makes today different than yesterday?
link to original post

Careful! In my experience, market corrections are like vomiting. Just when you think you're done... you're not.
link to original post

Good analogy. So after buying RGTI I looked at its objective data. I ran a small anesthesia group. Around 10 doctors. Our yearly revenue WAS GREATER than RGTI’s!
Forget ‘earnings’! It generates almost no REVENUE!

That being said, it’s up around 4% from when I posted I bought it earlier in the day!

Probably could have made a similar post about TSLA, AAPL, etc…. years ago.

Even after huge run up today, still down 3% or so from ATH. I ‘feel’ more bearish than bullish.

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is in on RGTI at 22.50. I may buy more tomorrow.

Looks like market crash is over. What makes today different than yesterday?
link to original post

What made yesterday afternoon different than yesterday morning?

People are scared, and the sharks smell it.

RGIT has the potential to be a thousand-dollar stock, but it's most likely to be on the pink sheets in five years. It's getting a lot of hype
right now by throwing around terms the public doesn't understand. The CEO sold all his company stock for $12 a share a few months ago.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is in on RGTI at 22.50. I may buy more tomorrow.

Looks like market crash is over. What makes today different than yesterday?
link to original post

Careful! In my experience, market corrections are like vomiting. Just when you think you're done... you're not.
link to original post

Good analogy. So after buying RGTI I looked at its objective data. I ran a small anesthesia group. Around 10 doctors. Our yearly revenue WAS GREATER than RGTI’s!
Forget ‘earnings’! It generates almost no REVENUE!

That being said, it’s up around 4% from when I posted I bought it earlier in the day!

Probably could have made a similar post about TSLA, AAPL, etc…. years ago.

Even after huge run up today, still down 3% or so from ATH. I ‘feel’ more bearish than bullish.
link to original post

Uh...revenue doesn't usually come at all with this type of investment. You think any of the AI tech is PROFITABLE? Almost all of the gene-editing, bio-hacking, naotech futurism corps bleed money daily.

The major appeal with this type of stock is that you have a tiny chance of an upside so high most people can't even conceive it. That's where the edge comes from, the market just can't work out a price for it.

Think of it like sperm. There are, and will be, hundreds of these companies all swimming against the current, and one of them might make it to the end and grow from being microscopic into a 6'5 250-pound man. The odds are this will be another leonlabob

The biggest hurdle I see is that this should be a sub-$1 stock at this stage. Instead, it's priced in the mid-20s for no reason other than it keeps generating publicity that it is the next big thing.

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every single day for the last few weeks the major media has been running stories re this:
is AI a bubble or is AI not a bubble
the stories almost always follow this format: several reasons why it isn't a bubble followed by several reasons why it is a bubble
I've read thru quite a few of them - it's become really tiring - I don't plan to read any more of these types of stories
"Que sera sera" - what will be will be
I can accept either outcome and don't need to get worked up about it
.

Pick a day—any day of the year you want. Now go back to any year between 1970 and 1995.
Look at what the Dow or SP 500 were at on the day you selected. Now go forward in five year intervals and record where the benchmark was on those days and where it is today.
Now explain again why you shouldn't be in the market.

September 12th 1974- Panic set in as the Dow lost 14 points. Yes- it lost 14 points to close at 627. The Dow had dropped about 150 points in the month after President Nixon resigned.
September 14 1979- Dow closes up 37 points as it approaches 900.
On September 14, 1984, the Dow is up twenty-something points and closes in the mid-1240s. It has essentially doubled over the past 10 years.
On September 14th, 1989, the Dow was just over 2800, more than doubling in the past five years, and that was after the 1987 crash.

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some further historical perspective followed by some wise words (imo):

"AI Overview

It took about 15 years for the Nasdaq index to recover its peak from the dot-com crash, (March, 2000), while some individual tech stocks, like Microsoft, took even longer, with some recovering only after nearly 17 years. The S&P 500 experienced a recovery that was hindered by the subsequent global financial crisis, but had started to climb back, though a significant loss remained for investors who had bought at the peak.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 took longer to recover. A study by Charles Stanley Group indicates the market took 1,515 days to recover from its 2000 peak, but this period was impacted by the subsequent 2008 financial crisis, which caused a further 54% decline.


from Wiki:


"In a 2015 book, venture capitalist Fred Wilson, who funded many dot-com companies and lost 90% of his net worth when the bubble burst, said about the dot-com bubble:

A friend of mine has a great line. He says "Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance." Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance the building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built."

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How was the money lost? If someone bought Microsoft and held it, they lost nothing. If someone speculated on it short-term, that's not investing.
Investing- smart. Speculating- foolish, although it occasionally pays well.

the old saw I remember is this, which I won't check for current accuracy, and note it does not factor dividends,

with *diversified* investing in stocks, not individual or in categories, many five year periods will have a decline in value

10 year declines are rare but can happen peak to trough*

in 15 years, there is virtually never a period where you lost money peak to trough**

20 year periods invested in stocks has beat any and all other forms of investment

that's what I remember and I'll add that 40 year periods are simply miraculous

* this means a dollar cost averaging method over that period would very likely not be so extremely affected
** may not be true factored for inflation

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

Quote: billryan

How was the money lost? If someone bought Microsoft and held it, they lost nothing.

not true
quite a few no doubt died before it came back - it took 17 years for Microsoft to come back from the dot.com crash
so some lost $, and some lost a lot, and their heirs could have received much less than if they had done something different
I'm not saying that they were wrong in buying and holding Microsoft
although imo they would have been better off with an index that included Microsoft and others that did not take so long to come back
there is no invincible strategy
just sayin'
.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

How was the money lost? If someone bought Microsoft and held it, they lost nothing.

not true
quite a few no doubt died before it came back - it took 17 years for Microsoft to come back from the dot.com crash
so some lost $, and some lost a lot, and their heirs could have received much less than if they had done something different
I'm not saying that they were wrong in buying and holding Microsoft
although imo they would have been better off with an index that included Microsoft and some others that did not take so long to come back
there is no invincible strategy
just sayin'
.
link to original post

If someone had bought Microsoft the day before it crashed, it would have taken them 17 years to recoup their investment, if they never bought any more.. You are correct, but the person should have been buying regularly, both before and after the crash, so their cost per share would be much lower. When it hit the same price, the person had lots of built-in profits.
In that case, the person had 17 years of buying Microsoft at a nice discount. Regular investing and dollar cost averaging will mean an investor has done very well for themselves, even though the stock itself hasn't gone up a dime in 17 years.

An Example.
I bought 100 shares of a stock at 52. It almost immediately crashed to 39, thanks to some DOGE nonsense and some bad reporting.
After it plateaued around 40, I bought another 100 shares. Instead of owning 100 shares at 52, my cost was now $46 a share for 200.
It rose back to 52 and I sold half my shares. The stock is worth exactly what I paid for it, but I've locked in a $1200 profit, and have my original 100 shares



Unless you have an immediate need for the money, the market correcting itself and prices dipping 20% is not a bad thing.

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Quote: billryan

the market correcting itself and prices dipping 20% is not a bad thing.

20%_________?

In March 2000, at the height of the dot-com bubble, Cisco became the most valuable company in the world, with a market capitalization of more than US $500 billion. Then the dot-com bubble burst. Cisco shares fell 88%, dropping from US $79 to a low of US $9.50 two years later.

the price of Cisco today - 25.5 years later - $76.10

Quote: billryan

You are correct, but the person should have been buying regularly, both before and after the crash, so their cost per share would be much lower. When it hit the same price, the person had lots of built-in profits.

again, no doubt some, probably quite a few died soon after the crash
so they could not have been buying MS after the crash
and may have started buying MS just before the crash

there is no perfect strategy than can protect an investor against any eventuality

but I will agree with you and odiousgambit and others that for most investors, most of the time, buying and holding quality is a sound strategy

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