WoV stock portfolio
Quote: DougGander
It could be the beginning of the end of the world.
it is unlikely global capitalism would survive this in its modern form and it would take decades to recover.
absolute total nonsense
more alarmist catastrophizing
you have no special insight into this conflict
you just think you do
you imagine yourself to be an extremely insightful commentator with knowledge and predictive skills that others don't have
this will be my last post on the subject
I have no more time to waste rebutting your ridiculous predictions
.
Quote: odiousgambitI don't want to sound ignorant, naive or reckless and foolhardy, but closing the strait of Hormuz would not be the end of the world. As I said, I'm concerned that Israel and the US are everestimating their abilities, and if the strait of Hormuz stays closed that will mean our fears have been realized, and it will suck. But not the end of the world
Also, Iran is truly finished if they can't sell their oil, 90% of which goes through Hormuz. The Goreh-Jask pipeline can be destroyed for the rest
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Some other areas of the would just yawn at the conditions Iran might consider bad under these war time difficulties. The average N. Korean would just call it another day.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGander
It could be the beginning of the end of the world.
it is unlikely global capitalism would survive this in its modern form and it would take decades to recover.
absolute total nonsense
more alarmist catastrophizing
you have no special insight into this conflict
you just think you do
you imagine yourself to be an extremely insightful commentator with knowledge and predictive skills that others don't have
this will be my last post on the subject
I have no more time to waste rebutting your ridiculous predictions
.
link to original post
It is not MY opinion. That's the mainstream financial opinion:
Here are the sources with their key quotes:
How Iran's Strait of Hormuz shutdown could hit the global economy — Axios
"The scale of what is at stake cannot be overstated. A full or near-full closure lasting a month or more would require demand destruction at levels that could push crude well into triple digits and European natural gas prices toward or above the crisis levels seen in 2022." — Hakan Kaya, Senior Portfolio Manager, Neuberger Berman
What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does its closure matter so much to the global economy? — The Conversation
"Throughout the last 50 years, oil price increases have often presaged an upcoming economic downturn. Some events, such as the first and second oil crises in the 1970s and early '80s, led to structural changes in global economies."
Hung up on Hormuz: the old-world order of oil was just shattered — Fortune
"When oil tests the $90-per-barrel point, the global economy begins to fracture. The global midstream network is a living system built for steady-state flow, and the Hormuz chokepoint is its primary valve. When this valve slams shut, the entire network suffers a mechanical heart attack."
The Strait that Moves the Market: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlas Institute for International Affairs
"The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has previously estimated that a one-year closure would result in a 15% decline in global LNG supply relative to 2024 levels, a shortfall that no amount of demand-side adjustment could fully absorb in the short term."
Strait of Hormuz crisis - devastating impact on Asia-Gulf trade — Seatrade Maritime
"A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, matching the all-time high seen during the 2007–2008 oil shock, with some estimates warning of prices as high as $300 per barrel in an extreme scenario."
Global Markets and the Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Shockwaves of the Iran War — Stimson Center
"Hormuz is not merely a tactical lever Iran can threaten or the United States can defend. It is a transmission belt between regional war and the global economy."
You can't respond or rebutt anything because you have nothing, there is no support for anything you are saying in the fringes or mainstream financial news.
Quote: DougGanderQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGander
It could be the beginning of the end of the world.
it is unlikely global capitalism would survive this in its modern form and it would take decades to recover.
absolute total nonsense
more alarmist catastrophizing
you have no special insight into this conflict
you just think you do
you imagine yourself to be an extremely insightful commentator with knowledge and predictive skills that others don't have
this will be my last post on the subject
I have no more time to waste rebutting your ridiculous predictions
.
link to original post
It is not MY opinion. That's the mainstream financial opinion:
Here are the sources with their key quotes:
How Iran's Strait of Hormuz shutdown could hit the global economy — Axios
"The scale of what is at stake cannot be overstated. A full or near-full closure lasting a month or more would require demand destruction at levels that could push crude well into triple digits and European natural gas prices toward or above the crisis levels seen in 2022." — Hakan Kaya, Senior Portfolio Manager, Neuberger Berman
What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does its closure matter so much to the global economy? — The Conversation
"Throughout the last 50 years, oil price increases have often presaged an upcoming economic downturn. Some events, such as the first and second oil crises in the 1970s and early '80s, led to structural changes in global economies."
Hung up on Hormuz: the old-world order of oil was just shattered — Fortune
"When oil tests the $90-per-barrel point, the global economy begins to fracture. The global midstream network is a living system built for steady-state flow, and the Hormuz chokepoint is its primary valve. When this valve slams shut, the entire network suffers a mechanical heart attack."
The Strait that Moves the Market: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlas Institute for International Affairs
"The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has previously estimated that a one-year closure would result in a 15% decline in global LNG supply relative to 2024 levels, a shortfall that no amount of demand-side adjustment could fully absorb in the short term."
Strait of Hormuz crisis - devastating impact on Asia-Gulf trade — Seatrade Maritime
"A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, matching the all-time high seen during the 2007–2008 oil shock, with some estimates warning of prices as high as $300 per barrel in an extreme scenario."
Global Markets and the Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Shockwaves of the Iran War — Stimson Center
"Hormuz is not merely a tactical lever Iran can threaten or the United States can defend. It is a transmission belt between regional war and the global economy."
You can't respond or rebutt anything because you have nothing, there is no support for anything you are saying in the fringes or mainstream financial news.
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Inflation adjusted, oil was $200 a barrel for a while in 2008. I don’t think the world came to an end. I think the economy bounced back just fine.
Is it bad when shit like this happens? Sure. But I think we are more resilient than you give us credit for. And I think you way underestimate the damage Israel can do to Iran if it isn’t worried about world opinion.
Quote: SOOPOO
Inflation adjusted, oil was $200 a barrel for a while in 2008. I don’t think the world came to an end. I think the economy bounced back just fine.
Is it bad when shit like this happens? Sure. But I think we are more resilient than you give us credit for. And I think you way underestimate the damage Israel can do to Iran if it isn’t worried about world opinion.
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There was a severe recession after 2008. Even then a spike caused by sudden industrial demand is not comparable with a malicious actor trying to destroy global oil.
There is nothing Israel or the US can do about small dedicated teams of drone operators and saboteurs. Dropping more bombs or whatever is not going to help you there.Killing large numbers of civilians is not an effective way to counter Iran's strategy.
The US mainland is very vulnerable in a number of different ways if the Iranians or their proxies choose to go down that route. There is no action that can be taken to prevent that.The sniper incident in Metcalfe proved that in 2013. Whether the Iranians are interested in that is debatable, they seem more concerned with their own geopolitical sphere, but if you think the US in any way safe from external threats you are significantly understating the threat. I would have thought 9/11 was fairly conclusive proof of that-there are a thousand less dramatic ways to cause similar death tolls.
SELL, SELL, SELL! Sell it all! Sell it now!
Please. So I can get my price targets & valuation metrics for securities on my list of things I’d be eager to buy. There has to be a buyer somewhere to help you out, while you can still escape with a lil’ sumpin’, and I’m a generous compassionate fellow like that.
This is an excellent time to panic, so pass the word: Sell! Everything! Now!
Quote: DougGanderQuote: SOOPOO
Inflation adjusted, oil was $200 a barrel for a while in 2008. I don’t think the world came to an end. I think the economy bounced back just fine.
Is it bad when shit like this happens? Sure. But I think we are more resilient than you give us credit for. And I think you way underestimate the damage Israel can do to Iran if it isn’t worried about world opinion.
link to original post
There was a severe recession after 2008. Even then a spike caused by sudden industrial demand is not comparable with a malicious actor trying to destroy global oil.
There is nothing Israel or the US can do about small dedicated teams of drone operators and saboteurs. Dropping more bombs or whatever is not going to help you there.Killing large numbers of civilians is not an effective way to counter Iran's strategy.
The US mainland is very vulnerable in a number of different ways if the Iranians or their proxies choose to go down that route. There is no action that can be taken to prevent that.The sniper incident in Metcalfe proved that in 2013. Whether the Iranians are interested in that is debatable, they seem more concerned with their own geopolitical sphere, but if you think the US in any way safe from external threats you are significantly understating the threat. I would have thought 9/11 was fairly conclusive proof of that-there are a thousand less dramatic ways to cause similar death tolls.
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What in my post makes you think I don’t believe Iran will try and kill pockets of Americans on our soil? Of course they will. These attacks will not derail our economy.
I disagree on Israel’s ability to degrade Iran’ s overall ability to cause mischief. You kill enough leaders, destroy enough munitions factories, cripple enough power grids, and the drone attacks slow down.
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
Quote: DrawingDeadOMFG, for Dogsakes sell! Everybody! Do it first thing tomorrow; sell all that no-good capitalist crap! Civilization is ending, market economies are doomed, private enterprise will shortly be consigned to the dustbin of history, gonna be like the marriage of a whole basket of those insane ChumpChange ‘Apocalypse Yesterday’ YouTubes on crack all come true!
SELL, SELL, SELL! Sell it all! Sell it now!
Please. So I can get my price targets & valuation metrics for securities on my list of things I’d be eager to buy. There has to be a buyer somewhere to help you out, while you can still escape with a lil’ sumpin’, and I’m a generous compassionate fellow like that.
This is an excellent time to panic, so pass the word: Sell! Everything! Now!
link to original post
Hysterical, you are a real funny guy. Tell us another funny joke funny guy.
A major war just started, multiple oil refineries are on fire across the Middle East, production shut down in Qatar, a massive data center was destroyed, the strait of Hormuz is closed, we have stagflation for the first time since 1970's. The US lost all its allies except Israel and just posted unexpected massive job losses, and the dollar just lost more value than pound did after Brexit. And the stock market's value is held up entirely by AI tech that literally loses millions of dollars a day.
Oh and oil just went up $20 in the last few hours taking it above $100 and hit $110.
Ha ha ha. Everything's fine.
Quote: SOOPOO[
What in my post makes you think I don’t believe Iran will try and kill pockets of Americans on our soil? Of course they will. These attacks will not derail our economy.
I disagree on Israel’s ability to degrade Iran’ s overall ability to cause mischief. You kill enough leaders, destroy enough munitions factories, cripple enough power grids, and the drone attacks slow down.
OK explain to me how in the two months that we have before the Strait Of Hormuz closure begins to seriously bite how your magic IDF is going to destroy all the drone manufacturing, a lot of which is going on deep underground, and also how it is going to eliminate approximately 6000 drones already dispersed around Iran and in the hands of its proxies? How is that going to work exactly? You could nuke the entire region and you wouldn't even come close to eliminating the inventory in any short timeframe.
Because, I don't think you can do that. We have had a comedy of denial, evasion, and so forth but nothing resembling any kind of suggestion as to how you do that impossible thing.
You have to do more than "degrade" the threat from missiles and drones or "slow them down". You have to persuade insurance companies there is zero risk. An insurance company is not going to be satisfied with a "slowing down" when they are insuring billions in potential losses.
Let me give you an out here: just say there will be some kind of negotiation. That might happen. It might not even be that bad a deal. But drop the gung-ho stuff because it obviously doesn't make any sense at all.
Quote: DrawingDeadOMFG, for Dogsakes sell! Everybody! Do it first thing tomorrow; sell all that no-good capitalist crap! Civilization is ending, market economies are doomed, private enterprise will shortly be consigned to the dustbin of history, gonna be like the marriage of a whole basket of those insane ChumpChange ‘Apocalypse Yesterday’ YouTubes on crack all come true!
SELL, SELL, SELL! Sell it all! Sell it now!
Please. So I can get my price targets & valuation metrics for securities on my list of things I’d be eager to buy. There has to be a buyer somewhere to help you out, while you can still escape with a lil’ sumpin’, and I’m a generous compassionate fellow like that.
This is an excellent time to panic, so pass the word: Sell! Everything! Now!
link to original post
great post DD__________!!!!
you the man - obviously
from a New York Times article today that is behind a paywall
"“We’re not too long, I think, before you will see more regular resumption of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Mr. Wright said that, “worst case,” it would take “a few weeks” for normal numbers of tankers to return to the strait.
Mr. Wright said the United States had successfully destroyed many of the weapons that Iran might use to strike ships. “That work is going tremendously well,” he said.
He also said that a “large tanker” went through the Strait of Hormuz “about 24 hours ago.”
Trump has also said that the U.S. Navy might provide an escort force to protect tankers as they travel through the strait. Asked Sunday on CNN when the escort might begin, Mr. Wright did not give a date but he said that U.S. forces were focusing on trying to diminish Iran’s missile and drone capability “to reduce their ability to disrupt traffic.”
if you want to, you can put the link into arichive.ph and you will probably be able to read the entire article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/business/chris-wright-strait-of-hormuz.html
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Iran War — Economic & Market Headlines, March 9 2026
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures sell off as oil prices surge to over $100 a barrel — Yahoo Finance
Strait of Hormuz closure is a guaranteed global recession — IBTimes
Can 400 million barrels stop oil's runaway price surge? — BeInCrypto
Oil prices: Analysts raise the alarm as crude soars over Iran war — CNBC
The $200 oil shock: What happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes — LongYield
Hung up on Hormuz: the old-world order of oil was just shattered — Fortune
G7 convenes emergency call with IEA as oil spikes and markets plunge — Prism News
Passage denied: Oil and gas prices swing wildly as Hormuz crisis drags on — Euronews
But some government stooge thinks everything is fine because one ship got through...so everything's fine....brilliant analysis.
from the link:
( in just a few days ) -
"Israel’s Army Chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, said Israel had destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defenses and at least 60% of its ability to launch missiles.
Trump on Thursday claimed Iran’s military had suffered significant losses, telling reporters that much of Iran’s navy, air defenses and missile-launch capability had been destroyed."
the reality is - Iran doesn't have even remotely close to a defense capability to deter the U.S. alone; and when you add Israel into it they are totally overmatched and overwhelmed
game, set, match - it will soon be all over
https://www.opb.org/article/2026/03/06/iran-retaliates-after-israel-strikes-beirut-and-tehran/#:~:text=Israel's%20Army%20Chief%20of%20staff,the%20vessel%20was%20on%20fire.
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Quote: lilredrooster.
from the link:
( in just a few days ) -
"Israel’s Army Chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, said Israel had destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defenses and at least 60% of its ability to launch missiles.
Trump on Thursday claimed Iran’s military had suffered significant losses, telling reporters that much of Iran’s navy, air defenses and missile-launch capability had been destroyed."
the reality is - Iran doesn't have even remotely close to a defense capability to deter the U.S. alone; and when you add Israel into it they are totally overmatched and overwhelmed
game, set, match - it will soon be all over
https://www.opb.org/article/2026/03/06/iran-retaliates-after-israel-strikes-beirut-and-tehran/#:~:text=Israel's%20Army%20Chief%20of%20staff,the%20vessel%20was%20on%20fire.
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People prosecuting a war tell you they are winning. It must be true. It isn't as if exactly the same hollow boasts by the invading power happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Ukraine etc etc ad infinitum.
There is NO impartial voice anywhere that thinks this isn't a disaster.
I very patiently explained in very simple language why, even if Iran's missile launchers are completely eliminated, that makes NO difference to whether the Strait Of Hormuz re-opens. You don't solve that problem with any amount of bombing.
Quote: DougGanderthat makes NO difference to whether the Strait Of Hormuz re-opens. You don't solve that problem with any amount of bombing.
from the link which was published 3 hours ago:
"France and its allies are preparing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort ships through the waterway off Iran, President Macron has said.
But the French head of state said the mission would only start “after the end of the hottest phase of the conflict”.
Macron said he planned to deploy an “unprecedented” naval force in the western Mediterranean, the Red Sea and off the Strait of Hormuz, consisting of eight frigates, two amphibious assault helicopter carriers and the Charles de Gaulle.
Macron said that France and other European and non-European states wanted to set up a “purely defensive mission” to escort tankers and cargo ships through the strait “as soon as possible”.
game, set, match - it will all be over soon
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-latest-news-crude-oil-price-today-war-3x68l0bb0?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcT5R5gjA6tmUTKESSpFimal4BadmLyBgtVQJIrkk6IMrx0K5XwDwYq&gaa_ts=69aefeb4&gaa_sig=wBmRsRv-6f1rplssHBZrqBI0hEfB75xN_KtegupJzH_zaE1A6z0fHW3gaOLJ9Z-_DEFPg5i7VZRJLavSfw5RqQ%3D%3D
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Quote: lilredrooster.
from the link which was published 3 hours ago:
"France and its allies are preparing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort ships through the waterway off Iran, President Macron has said.
But the French head of state said the mission would only start “after the end of the hottest phase of the conflict”.
Macron said he planned to deploy an “unprecedented” naval force in the western Mediterranean, the Red Sea and off the Strait of Hormuz, consisting of eight frigates, two amphibious assault helicopter carriers and the Charles de Gaulle.
Macron said that France and other European and non-European states wanted to set up a “purely defensive mission” to escort tankers and cargo ships through the strait “as soon as possible”.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-latest-news-crude-oil-price-today-war-3x68l0bb0?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcT5R5gjA6tmUTKESSpFimal4BadmLyBgtVQJIrkk6IMrx0K5XwDwYq&gaa_ts=69aefeb4&gaa_sig=wBmRsRv-6f1rplssHBZrqBI0hEfB75xN_KtegupJzH_zaE1A6z0fHW3gaOLJ9Z-_DEFPg5i7VZRJLavSfw5RqQ%3D%3D
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Do the math here.
One convoy per FORTNIGHT will have an escort...which is no real use against drones, swift boats etc and almost certainly won't satisfy insurance companies. Maybe. At some vague poorly defined point in the future.
No mention of how the the thousands of mines already planted are going to be removed.....
what?
Quote: odiousgambitstocks are up, not down, at the close
what?
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The stock market turned around dramatically when trump said "I think the war is very complete, pretty much."
The markets interpreted this as a sign that the US and Israel are going to retreat, presumably without having achieved regime change in light of the volatile oil price/stock market crash.
Whether that is actually the case we will see.I find it difficult to believe the government will back off without getting any oil, prudent as that would be.
Quote: SOOPOO
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
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No, because Iran isn't that stupid.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOO
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
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No, because Iran isn't that stupid.
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We will have to agree to disagree. I think Iran would go after any US or Israeli target if they could. It would be ‘praise to Allah’ moment.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOO
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
link to original post
No, because Iran isn't that stupid.
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We will have to agree to disagree. I think Iran would go after any US or Israeli target if they could. It would be ‘praise to Allah’ moment.
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Then why haven't they? Maybe, just maybe, they realize the trouble they'd be in if they did.
Back to the topic at hand, I am glad oil is down and stocks are starting to recover. But we need to stop the yo-yo.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOO
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
link to original post
No, because Iran isn't that stupid.
link to original post
We will have to agree to disagree. I think Iran would go after any US or Israeli target if they could. It would be ‘praise to Allah’ moment.
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Then why haven't they? Maybe, just maybe, they realize the trouble they'd be in if they did.
Back to the topic at hand, I am glad oil is down and stocks are starting to recover. But we need to stop the yo-yo.
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Iran will do anything that profits them that they think they can get away with. Cynics. That word comes from Ancient Greek roots meaning "doglike," in that they will attack when they think they have the advantage, and cower and beg when they don't. There's nothing in between. Damn sight better we make them cower.
And I like the market swings! They're very profitable. It's a lot like counting. We all know the dealer has to catch his low cards, in order for the count to rise and then we can bet big.
(Of course, having access to the Signal chat of a certain son of a certain someone who gives us a heads-up about official announcements helps a bit!)
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOO
If you don’t think if Iran was able to take out a US power plant LAST YEAR, they wouldn’t have?
link to original post
No, because Iran isn't that stupid.
link to original post
We will have to agree to disagree. I think Iran would go after any US or Israeli target if they could. It would be ‘praise to Allah’ moment.
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You don't have a very sophisticated view of people do you? I'm guessing you formed your opinion from television and social media. Iranian intelligence operatives are an expensive asset and they don't typically sacrifice themselves or engage in public displays of religious fervor. They are closer to CIA operatives than Jihadis.
Quote: AutomaticMonkey
And I like the market swings! They're very profitable. It's a lot like counting. We all know the dealer has to catch his low cards, in order for the count to rise and then we can bet big.
Oh give it a rest. Volatility trading has been a mainstream concept for around 40 years and it doesn't work like that. You don't have some magic secret knowledge.
No amount of volatility is exploitable when, as in this case, its based on the accurate processing of new information into the market. Just because the price went up and then down doesn't mean it was a positive expectation trade, if the information is processed accurately then no edge exists.
Quote: DougGanderQuote: AutomaticMonkey
And I like the market swings! They're very profitable. It's a lot like counting. We all know the dealer has to catch his low cards, in order for the count to rise and then we can bet big.
Oh give it a rest. Volatility trading has been a mainstream concept for around 40 years and it doesn't work like that.
No amount of volatility is exploitable when, as in this case, it’s based on the accurate processing of new information into the market. Just because the price went up and then down doesn't mean it was a positive expectation trade, if the information is processed accurately then no edge exists.
You seem to have all the answers and the rest of us are just stupid. You also like talking down to people.
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Here's a top tip if you don't want people to disagree with you. Rather than sound off on the basis of an ignorant, prejudicial thought you spend sixty seconds googling it or asking an ai, then you check out the primary sources. Like everyone else does. If you don't do that, then yeah, educated people will think you are "stupid" as you put it when you come out with stuff which is wrong or not true. They might be too polite to say but that's what they will think and they will either ignore you or patronize you. Would you prefer I did that?
People today have unprecedented access to information through technology I could only dream of when I was younger. You are truly blessed. It is truly a gift from heaven. Yet again and again, and this thread is strong evidence of this it is apparent that people are too lazy to educate themselves to the most trivial extent imaginable, and very often dwell in this cesspit of ugly prejudice on top of it.
Quote: DougGanderPeople today have unprecedented access to information through technology I could only dream of when I was younger. You are truly blessed. It is truly a gift from heaven.
agree but my thinking is this gift has limitations since everybody has it
it's true that some don't use it
but sharps are driving the market and market prices for the most part
is it easier now because of all this info to find a good trade or a good investment than it was before we had all this info - ?
I tend to doubt it
I tend to think that most intelligent investors and traders have about the same chance of doing well as before all of this info was available
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I wouldn't admit to that if I were youQuote: AutomaticMonkey
(Of course, having access to the Signal chat of a certain son of a certain someone who gives us a heads-up about official announcements helps a bit!)
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